2023 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 1-15)

The Braves have added a couple heavy hitters to this group over the last year, most notably Raisel Iglesias, who will open the year on the IL due to shoulder inflammation. Joe Jiménez, acquired in a trade from the Tigers, is coming off a year in which he set a personal record for average fastball velocity at 95.8 mph, a tick above his 2021 mark.

In addition to those two, oft-injured former Rays closer Nick Anderson was added via free agency. He had a partially torn UCL early in 2022 and was put back on the IL with plantar fasciitis late in the year. His fastball velocity has been in the 92-94 mph range this spring, so he may not be poised for a big resurgence. Another hopeful bounce-back candidate is Kirby Yates, who has only pitched 11 big league innings since 2019 due to his second career Tommy John and more elbow inflammation upon his 2022 return. Yates’ fastball velocity during the spring of 2023 has at least been on par with his pre-injury level, in the 92-94 mph range with his usual splitter.

Also in the injury-prone group is Mike Soroka, who returned from two Achilles tears only to be shut down with elbow soreness last year and then again for a while this spring with a strained hamstring. He looked good his lone Grapefruit League outing, which occurred after his hammy issue, sitting 92-95, which is up a couple of ticks from when he was last healthy. The Braves tend to let their fringe starter/relievers keep starting for as long as possible, but Soroka has missed so much time that it might be prudent to stick him in the bullpen, and his increased slider usage this spring is perhaps a sign that’s coming. Rock steady Collin McHugh helps to balance some of this volatility.

Once again the Atlanta bullpen has three good lefties. Late-inning bulldog A.J. Minter returns (his velo has been a little down this spring, but it’s nothing to be alarmed about), as does Dylan Lee (who induced the second-best chase rate among relievers in 2022), while Lucas Luetge’s addition adds a third to replace the departed Will Smith and rehabbing (TJ) Tyler Matzek.

One name not here who might play a role at some point during the year is Roddery Muñoz, whose slider is good enough for him to play a late-inning role.

If they aren’t the nastiest trio in baseball, the Hader/Suarez/García troika at the back of San Diego’s bullpen are certainly in the mix with Philly and Houston. Already a historically good reliever (though 2022 certainly constituted a down year), Hader set a personal record for fastball velocity in 2022, averaging 97.5 mph. He was also used less often than in previous years. The reins should be totally off in 2023 as it’s Hader’s contract year.

Suarez (who is starting the year on the IL) came over from NPB last year and looked like a contender’s set-up man as he sat 97 and showed that his changeup is capable of missing big league bats. He then signed a five-year, $46 million extension that will take him through his age-37 season. In the event that Hader misses time with injury or proves ineffective, he’s a perfectly capable replacement for the game’s most important moments.

And if anything goes awry with both Hader and Suarez, ho hum, here comes García and his 98-100 mph sinker and slider that generated a 22% swinging strike rate in 2022.

After that the Friars have a pretty standard middle-inning duo in Steven Wilson and low-slot lefty Tim Hill, and then a host of swing- and long-men with starting experience. Brent Honeywell Jr., Nabil Crismatt, Seth Lugo, and several of the recent prospects who haven’t broken through into the rotation (Baez, Morejon, and Weathers) could play this role throughout the course of the season.

Drew Pomeranz, who is on his way back from flexor tendon surgery, is behind the rest of the group this spring, but the notion of a healthy Pomeranz and Hill, some amount of Weathers and Morejon, and the myriad of changeup-oriented righties means opposing left-handed hitters are going to have a tough time late in games against the Padres.

Emmanuel Clase is coming off his second consecutive season with a sub-2.00 ERA. With Edwin Díaz out for the year, his projected WAR total is the single highest among relief pitchers in baseball, and that’s with the projections assuming he’ll walk batters (2.3 BB/9 projected) at roughly twice the rate he did in 2022 (1.2 BB/9), which doesn’t seem likely to me. Clase’s 100 mph cutter is perhaps the nastiest pitch in the majors and he’s going right at hitters like he knows it.

Set-up man James Karinchak found the vertical movement his fastball lost in 2021 (who can say how?) and also increased the usage of his breaking ball after he had taken a much more fastball-heavy approach the year before. Evolutionary Al Hrabosky’s pre-delivery mannerisms will have to be curtailed because of the pitch timer.

Increased splitter usage helped former Rule 5 pick Trevor Stephan take a leap in his second year with the Guardians organization. He also made significant progress from a strike-throwing standpoint with his fastball and slider. His heater’s characteristics changed to feature more sink, which made it much harder for opposing hitters to elevate (33% GB% in 2021, 51% in 2022). The Yankees aren’t typically a team I associate with leaving developmental meat on the bone but, in this case, Cleveland improved Stephan across two years after Rule 5’ing him, which is a great sign for some of their other arms who’ve been around for a little bit.

Could they do something similar with any of these other pitchers? Enyel De Los Santos is the logical candidate, as he spent his career to this point with clubs that feel like they’re still playing catch-up in pitching dev. Most of the rest of this group has been with Cleveland for a while. Touki Toussaint is an exception, and it would be nice to see that breaking ball actually play like it looks like it should.

Eli Morgan’s fastball only averaged 92 mph last year but that was a two-tick bump from the prior season. His incredible mid-70s changeup is a reminder that one plus-plus pitch and good command can carry a pitcher to a stable middle relief role. Hop over to the Guardians prospect list to learn a bunch more about Cody Morris and Tim Herrin.

It’s incredible that a group made up almost entirely of scrapheap fliers is projected to be the fourth-best bullpen in baseball. Evan Phillips always had a wonderfully curvaceous breaking ball, but he wasn’t able to throw strikes and spent half a decade as an up/down guy before the Dodgers gave him a cutter and a clone of Blake Treinen’s sweeper, changed the characteristics of his fastball, and shortened his arm action in a way that seems to have helped his control. Oh, and he’s throwing two ticks harder.

We could do this for a lot of these guys. Alex Vesia was a throw-in in the Dylan Floro trade with Miami, Brusdar Graterol failed his physical during the initial Mookie Betts trade, Yency Almonte couldn’t carve out a consistent role with the Rockies, and Phil Bickford was plucked off waivers from Milwaukee, though the Brewers had made significant progress with him and get at least partial credit.

What then, can the Dodgers do to help Alex Reyes get closer to the ceiling foreseen of him as a prospect? He’ll miss at least the first half of 2023 as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. He, Jimmy Nelson, and Daniel Hudson have persevered through many injuries. What Hudson especially has been able to sustain after the first part of his career was marred by multiple surgeries is borderline miraculous, a result of his work and determination, as well as the medical, training and conditioning personnel with every team whose uniform Hudson has donned.

Get ready to relive something akin to the Brad Lidge roller coaster, Phillies fans, except with three or four different guys. As I noted when the Phillies traded for Gregory Soto in January, they now have the majors’ two hardest-throwing left-handed pitchers in Soto and José Alvarado, and three of the top 40 regardless of handedness when you include Seranthony Domínguez. Alvarado and Domínguez handled high-leverage duty for the Phillies during the 2022 playoffs, with experienced veteran David Robertson playing the “closer” role in the event that both had already thrown, or if either was unavailable. Now Kimbrel and Soto, both with closer experience, appear poised to fall into high-octane versions of that role (Robertson is now a Met), and that extends to Soto’s assumed role as the second lefty in Philly’s bullpen, a part occupied last year by Brad Hand (who is now with the Rockies).

All of Alvarado, Soto, and Kimbrel tend to go through stretches where they are too wild for their own good, and others where they’re unhittable. Weirdly, having three or four guys like that around likely ensures that at least one of them is hot and dominant at any given time.

The Phillies desire to acquire big velocity, even if the pitcher in question is quite wild, extends to the trade they made for Yunior Marte, formerly of the Giants. Marte sits 96-98 mph and has a mid-80s slider. He’s a higher-octane version of the Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon middle relief corps with less reliable control.

It was great to see Matt Strahm not only have a healthy 2022 but throw harder than he ever has in his big league career. His 2022 usage was quite conservative (he threw fewer innings than he had appearances), which may have had something to do with it.

Folks are probably familiar with this group by virtue of how often they’ve pitched in meaningful postseason games the last several years. Pressly (two years) and Montero (three years) both signed extensions in the offseason that will keep them around for a while longer. Abreu, who has one of the planet’s best breaking balls, finally threw a fair rate of strikes in 2022. If he can take another step in that area, don’t be surprised if he’s easily the best pitcher in this bullpen (and maybe the best reliever in all of baseball) at the year’s end.

This is another bullpen short on lefties, but the splitters of Héctor Neris and Ryne Stanek are nasty enough that those two guys can essentially act as specialists when Dusty Baker has to get one out. Blake Taylor, who missed much of 2022 with injury, got into Grapefruit League games very late in the calendar and had reduced velocity, in the 89-92 mph range.

In addition to Taylor, the Astros have a lot of “Forget Me Nots” who have been hurt or away from baseball, or who have just sputtered in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Jairo Solis (not listed here) is a former well-regarded pitching prospect who hasn’t pitched in affiliated ball since 2018 due to multiple injuries. He’s been in the 93-96 mph range this spring and could be a low-leverage option out of the bullpen this year if he’s throwing enough strikes. Ty Buttrey (also not listed), who was dominant a few years ago, voluntarily left baseball in 2021 and came back last year with the Angels. Maybe a change of scenery will get him going again. He’s also been in the mid-90s this spring, though he did not make the Opening Day roster. Finally, Forrest Whitley has not thrown a Grapefruit League pitch in two weeks as of publication and each of his outings was at Houston’s home park, which doesn’t feed the Baseball Savant game feeds for litmus testing.

There’s long-term risk that Hunter Brown ends up in the bullpen. Yes, his delivery looks like Justin Verlander’s, but his command is not nearly on that level. Houston’s starting rotation has enough guys who can go deep into games that an inefficient start from Brown once per turn will be fine and shouldn’t over-tax the bullpen. Seth Martinez’s emergence as a good long-man helps in this area.

There are a few things that could elevate this bullpen from “very good” to “great” during the 2023 season. First, Andrés Muñoz, who had offseason foot surgery, has added a sinker variant, which might help him work more efficiently as it’s a means to induce weak contact. Second, Matt Brash enters his first season as a full-time reliever, and his stuff is good enough for him to leap into the high-leverage stratosphere if improved comfortability in that role emboldens him to go right at hitters and avoid walks.

Those two combined with stable late-inning stalwarts Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo form a formidable group at the back of Seattle’s ‘pen. If Justin Topa (who has big lateral action on his high-90s stuff) can stay healthy, he can also be considered part of this group. Also watch out for prospects Bryce Miller and Prelander Berroa (Berroa isn’t listed here), who the Mariners have continued to let start this spring. Miller’s elite fastball and Berroa’s fastball/slider combination are on par with that of a late-inning reliever, but neither is running out of options nor often hurt, things that might prompt proactive moves to the bullpen. It makes sense to use 2023 (at least) as another developmental year to see if they can start, but if the big league team is suddenly in need of plus relief stuff, they are both candidates.

This group is very light on left-handed pitching but the good news is that Gabe Speier has had a great camp. In fact, a Mariners source, when prompted as to whether anyone in camp had taken a leap, first offered Speier, who was an offseason waiver claim from Kansas City. The Mariners are still prime candidates to add left-handed help from outside the org during the year.

It seems to be the case every year, but many of the Rays relievers are returning from, or constantly battling, injury. Pete Fairbanks missed a huge chunk of 2022 with a lat strain but looked fine upon his return. His injury history is long enough to have background anxiety about him getting hurt again, and while the Rays do a great job of quilting waiver claims and fringe roster guys into a good bullpen, Fairbanks is the only one here with traditionally dominant stuff. Jason Adam has defied expectations by carving out a career after he couldn’t make it as a starter in the Royals org, but when he’s projected as the second-best pitcher in your bullpen and Garrett Cleavinger (who has hopped around on waivers) is projected as the fourth, that’s not the best.

It’s possible Colby White, who is returning from Tommy John, can be a power set-up man behind Fairbanks at some point this year and give the Rays a more traditional backend duo. He sits 93-98 mph with huge riding life when healthy. Lefty Jose Lopez (not listed here) struck out 95 hitters in 59 innings last year; he sits 95-97 and has a comfortably plus slider. He was the Padres Rule 5 pick and was returned to the Rays because he struggles to throw strikes. If things click for him, he’ll instantly be a late-inning option, and now the Rays can carry him without using a 40-man spot.

Jalen Beeks had Tommy John in 2021 and was on the IL with leg tightness last year, but he looks healthy this spring, sitting in the mid-90s with his usual changeup and cutter. Colin Poche returned from TJ last year and while he wasn’t quite as dominant as he was in 2019, he was shaking off multiple years of rust. It’s reasonable to hope he and his invisible, carrying fastball will take another step forward this year.

Luis Patiño was shelled in each of his final two spring training starts before he was optioned to Triple-A. He dealt with shoulder and oblique issues last year, and he has struggled to throw strikes when he’s been healthy.

There are some fun guys in the mix for lower-leverage spots and who might play a role later in the season. Evan Reifert has one of the better sliders in the minors, Rule 5 pick Kevin Kelly is a sidearming wonder, and minor league free agent pickup Graham Spraker (not listed here) has a plus heater and is now working with a new staff to develop a second plus pitch.

Goth kids, this is your bullpen, headlined by Graveman and Bummer. Graveman’s career has been remarkable because he built arm strength deep into his 20s to become the viable back-of-the-bullpen option he is today. His pitch mix has also changed several times depending on what team he’s been with, with his curveball and changeup being shelved and reintroduced a few times.

Bummer has dealt with a knee, hamstring, and reoccurring lat issue each of the last two seasons. When healthy, he’s one of the most effective groundball getters in baseball. Among relievers who threw at least 20 innings in 2022, Bummer had the majors’ sixth-highest groundball rate, at a whopping 63.5%; he was outpaced by teammate Joe Kelly (64.4%). With Bummer, Kelly, and Graveman, the White Sox have three of the top 39 worm-killing bullpen arms in baseball.

Reynaldo López was shifted into the bullpen once he was out of options and was great in his first full season in that role, posting a 1.97 FIP in 65 innings. Converted catcher José Ruiz has made adjustments in back to back seasons, transitioning from a slider to a curveball in 2021, then throwing many more changeups in 2022. It has helped him keep the ball on the ground much more often.

Rule 5 pick Nick Avila hasn’t had a great spring when you look at his overall line, though half of the eight runs he gave up in his nine spring innings came in one nuclear outing. He’s a mid-90s/cutter/slider guy. Another former Giant trying to get some traction in Chicago is Gregory Santos. Santos will sit 97-100, but his fastball’s shape makes it vulnerable to contact in the strike zone, so he ends up pitching off his plus slider more often.

Mid-90s lefty Jake Diekman has now pitched for over a decade in the big leagues, which is a feat for any reliever, let alone for a guy who has had ulcerative colitis since he was a kid.

If the ChiSox can stay in the AL Central race long enough for former first rounder Garrett Crochet (TJ rehab) and Liam Hendriks (Lymphoma) to come back healthy, then look out. With those two going full steam, this is easily a top three bullpen. Crochet’s rehab outing timetable puts him in line for a May return, while Hendriks’ is more variable.

If anyone deserved (ahem needed) to be grandfathered into the pitch clock era without restriction it’s probably Kenley Jansen, who has been one of baseball’s slower workers for the last several years. Assuming he can adjust (Kenley’s had to make several adjustments throughout his career already), he’s still an effective late-inning reliever. Seeing him in a Red Sox jersey is like seeing Joe Namath in Rams threads.

Free agent addition Chris Martin has been baseball’s best strike-throwing reliever since entering the big leagues in 2014. He’s never walked more than six batters in a single season. Seriously. Richard Bleier’s stuff isn’t all that electric but he also fills the zone, giving Alex Cora super dependable middle-inning options of both handedness.

John Schreiber was never on a FanGraphs prospect list, but he pitched like a late-inning option last year after enjoying a two-tick velo spike from the prior season, when the Red Sox designated him for assignment. The number of low-slot guys in this bullpen is quite high, with Tanner Houck, Joely Rodríguez, Wyatt Mills, and Ryan Sherriff all fitting the bill to various degrees.

If this group stays healthy all year, they’ll finish better than 11th. They already have some bumps and bruises, though. Tommy Kahnle is dealing with biceps tendinitis and had a cortisone shot not long before publication. Lou Trivino sprained his elbow this spring. He “found” a new cutter before the sprain, and given New York’s ability to coax new pitches out of established players, that might be a big deal.

Michael King’s velocity isn’t all the way back to pre-surgery levels but it’s close, and he’s been in the 93-97 mph range this spring. Luis Gil can be optioned again once he returns from TJ, so it’s feasible the Yankees try to develop him has a starter for another year, but he’s a late-season impact candidate here if they ‘pen him. Jonathan Loáisiga, who had shoulder inflammation last year (a consistent issue for him) looks totally fine, working in the 97-99 mph range once again.

I don’t think Albert Abreu is truly in line to throw 60 innings given that he’s been so wild that he’s fallen off rosters a few times during the last couple of seasons. Ron Marinaccio, though, is a much more stable middle reliever out of central casting. Greg Weissert has the sweeper slider you keep hearing about.

The feel good story here is 31-year-old Jimmy Cordero, who hasn’t thrown a big league inning since 2020 due mostly to injury. He was nails with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre for 30 innings last year and is poised to break camp as an upper-90s-throwing reliever who will challenge Giancarlo Stanton for the team’s best physique.

Another group full of guys with plus or better fastball velocity, if we’re picking bullpens in a schoolyard the Cardinals probably get selected higher than 12th. Things really clicked for Ryan Helsley last year and he somehow had a velo spike, going from averaging 97 mph to 99. He also nearly doubled his curveball usage from 6% to 10%. He was in baseball’s 97th percentile or better in many categories, including fastball velo, opponent’s expected batting average and SLG, and whiff%. Quite simply, healthy Helsley is one of the best couple of closers in baseball.

Pour one out for both Giovanny Gallegos and Jojo Romero, Team Mexico relievers who were dealt a crushing loss at the hands of Japan in the WBC. Romero is likely to pitch more innings than this projection this year. He was walk-prone upon returning from Tommy John last season, but he wasn’t for his prospect lifetime as a starter. He’s never really been able to get his footing in the big leagues due mostly to injury, and that should change this year. Gallegos has been a rock since he was acquired from the Yankees, producing at a rate commensurate with a 60-grade starter on a per-inning basis.

After Helsley and Gallegos, this group has some hard-throwing guys whose fastballs don’t miss a ton of bats due to their shape and approach angle. Jordan Hicks and Andre Pallante are chief among them. Pallante’s sinker and cutter are nasty enough, and his repertoire is deep enough from his prospect days as a starter that he remains unpredictable enough to get outs. He’s a great option to come in, get a groundball to escape a jam, and then stay in for at least another inning. Hicks is a 99 mph groundball machine who has posted a 4.17 FIP each of the last two years.

The rest of the Cardinals bullpen personifies either vanilla stability (Chris Stratton, Zack Thompson, Packy Naughton) or extreme volatility, with no in-between. Genesis Cabrera is electric but saw a concerning reduction in his strikeout rate last year as he lost nearly two ticks of velo. He still sits 96 but went from K’ing just shy of 10 per 9 IP in 2021 to just 6.5 in 2022. Guillermo Zuñiga is the last of the players from the infamous John Coppolella scandal who has a chance to be an impact big leaguer. You probably saw him sitting 97-101 for Team Colombia in the WBC, and indeed he has premium stuff, though his conditioning and command have waxed and waned during his lifetime as a prospect with the Braves and Dodgers. There are some scouts who thought he was minor league free agent priority number one, and he certainly looked like it in the WBC.

This group certainly got better. You’re not going to make it deep into the postseason when Yimi Garcia is your set-up man. Now that Erik Swanson is on board and Nate Pearson is healthy and has been moved to the bullpen, Jordan Romano isn’t the only one with legit late-inning stuff, but there’s still not a great back end here. Pearson was surprisingly optioned to Buffalo just before publication. He and/or prospect Yosver Zulueta have the stuff to be late-inning weapons but Toronto’s handling of Pearson is an indication that Zulueta will percolate as a starter for a while yet.

What this group lacks in premium relief arms they make up for in depth. Yimi Garcia isn’t a slam dunk eighth-inning guy, but he is a solid middle inning option. Tim Mayza and Adam Cimber provide disruptive mid-game looks with their funk and deception, while Anthony Bass (give him his 10-year veteran’s jacket) has had one hell of a second act to his career as he’s leaned more heavily on his slider in his 30s. Trevor Richards’ hair has gone all Steve Martin but his changeup is still a jerk.

Deeper names to look out for are both Junior and Julian Fernández, high-octane arms with 30-grade command who were brought in from other orgs. The Mitch White (currently dealing with an elbow issue), Thomas Hatch, Yusei Kikuchi group could shift into a long role at some point during the year as well.

How much do you trust this group? Jhoan Duran is a Dude. He and his 100 mph sinker would fit in the back of any bullpen. Griffin Jax is rock solid — he’ll throw strikes and eat a ton of innings — and Caleb Thielbar is a suitable top bullpen lefty thanks to his shapely curveball.

After that, there are question marks. Jorge López’s perseverance through his baseball struggles is admirable, but he had an ERA over 6.00 for three consecutive seasons prior his good 2022, and I’m waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin. Emilio Pagán has also run hot and cold over the past few years, never matching his 2019 dominance while running ERAs over 4.00. Jorge Alcala was hurt for much of last year and while his velo this spring has been good (mostly 94-95), it’s still two ticks slower than his 2020-21 fastballs. Jovani Moran’s changeup is ridiculous, but he’s had bouts of extreme wildness throughout his career.

Perhaps Trevor Megill, who enjoyed a two-tick bump last year, is the guy who will take a step forward in the event I’m right about how tenuous this situation is. The Twins also have a slew of optionable starters set to begin the year in the minors, and it’s possible one or more of them will be moved to the bullpen. Several of those guys (like Ronny Henriquez, Josh Winder, Matt Canterino, Jordan Balazovic) are already dealing with injuries or ineffectiveness.

On the short list of things I’d most like the baseball gods to give us is a fully actualized Camilo Doval, which we got for most of 2022. The sidewinding marvel is among baseball’s nastiest relievers when all the components of his delivery are clicking, and this Giants coaching staff seems able to ensure that’s the case most of the time.

The Taylor Rogers addition gives the Giants a certified set-up man with closer experience should something befall Doval. Submarining twin brother Tyler is a premium “look” reliever who also has late-inning experience if the dominoes fall in front of him.

John Brebbia doesn’t have scintillating stuff, but he also doesn’t walk anybody, a reliable lower-leverage option who’ll prevent things from getting out of hand. Scott Alexander helped write 70-grade flick “Ed Wood” and he’s also among the more extreme groundball pitchers in the league, with a 70% career GB%.

Sean Hjelle (pronounced like in peanut butter and _____) has been throwing harder this spring but scouts see him as a fastball-only guy, and the same is true of Cole Waites, who might have an 80-grade heater. Jacob Junis will be a length-giving swingman. Watch Mauricio Llovera here. At times with Philly he looked like a potential late-inning weapon and the Giants have tended to coax more out of the arms they acquire on the roster fringe.