2023 Trade Value: Introduction and Honorable Mentions

I’m sorry in advance. That guy you like, your favorite young star on your favorite team? I ranked him too low. I missed something, I’m biased, I just don’t know enough about baseball. Have I even been to a game? Do I understand what it takes to win? That guy’s a stud and I’m treating him like a chump. And have you seen the terrible players I put above him? Shocking!

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, welcome to the 2023 edition of our annual Trade Value Series. Starting today and continuing all week, we’ll release our list, taking player performance, age, and contract into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all run this show in years past; this is my second year at the helm.

Luckily for you (and those poor players I’ve disrespected), I didn’t have to do this on my own; I got an absolute ton of help. First, I gathered every possible input I could think of: age, contract status, measures of current production, estimates of future production, Statcast data, pitch-level modeling, Zodiac sign, and positional scarcity. From there, I got feedback from the rest of the FanGraphs staff (special thanks here to Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS assistance and Meg Rowley for being a frequent sounding board as I hemmed and hawed over the list in progress) to form a rough ranking. Then I got some feedback from external sources to further hone in on a final order. The input from all those sources was useful and much appreciated, but make no mistake, this is my list.

In past years, I’ve been cagey about what exactly this list represents. This year, I’d like to be clear: This is my subjective ranking of the 50 players in baseball who I think would fetch the most if their team traded them. It’s not a consensus list of which players I think are most valued by the industry, though of course there’s huge overlap with that criteria. There will absolutely be players who I’m higher on than consensus and vice versa. This doesn’t mean the consensus will be wrong, though obviously I think it is.

With that said, here’s the question I’m trying to answer: Taking everything about a player into account, which players would garner the highest trade value, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? It’s not the average value that each team would assign each player based on their respective competitive windows; just like real trades, in this hypothetical list, there’s a highest bidder, the team most motivated to acquire someone’s services. That’s what I care about. To give you an example from today’s honorable mentions, there are a lot of teams that wouldn’t trade for Zack Wheeler regardless of price, but that doesn’t matter, because playoff contenders would line up to bid for him if he hit the market.

I think this is an important distinction, because you could imagine looking at this list from a particular team’s perspective and scratching your head at the order. The Royals wouldn’t trade for Wheeler and the Dodgers probably wouldn’t trade for Adley Rutschman (spoiler: he’s on the list). It’s a team fit issue; the Royals aren’t in a position to take advantage of a great starter in the next few years and the Dodgers have a great catcher already. Why would Kansas City acquire a playoff starter only to have him sit at home come October? Why would Los Angeles give up a king’s ransom in prospects to create a catcher logjam?

You could imagine a completely different list, one filled only with universally desirable players. Rutschman would be on that list, of course, but Wander Franco (another spoiler) might not be; not every team can afford his contract, even though it’s a relative bargain from a team perspective. More and more teams consider themselves to be cash-constrained (whether they actually are or not), and even if your team operates with wider budget latitude, adding a player on a bargain deal allows the front office to spend elsewhere. But as long as there’s no hard salary cap and star players are in short supply, there will still be a top end to the market, and I’ve attempted to account for that in my rankings.

A quick note about that specifically: I had Juan Soto sixth on last year’s list and the Nationals traded him for a haul that befits that slot. That’s not because of a cheap contract or because he’s flush with the surplus value that front offices so desperately crave these days (he’s a bargain, but not that much of one). It’s because having stars on your team is really valuable, more valuable than a linear addition of WAR would suggest. It’s fairly easy to develop or acquire players who are above replacement level but below average. It’s within the realm of possibility to develop or acquire average players, or even slightly above-average players. Stars aren’t as easy to get and their upside is clear; a team of average players will be average by definition. You need stars on your roster if you want to win championships and there simply aren’t that many of them. These rankings absolutely account for that.

Cutting the list off at 50 players was an arbitrary decision made a decade ago, but it’s one I completely support; you have to draw the line somewhere, and 50 does a good job of getting the best players on the list while also leaving space for the merely very good. The distance between the 45th-best trade value in baseball and the 60th-best is slim, and in the eye of the beholder. You could make an argument for any of the players in the honorable mention section belonging on the back end of the list. In fact, either someone I consulted or I made that argument about each of these players at some stage in the list’s creation. I’ve also included a separate section of players who made the list last year but fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this year. For all the players who appeared on last year’s list, their 2021 ranking appears after their name in parentheses. I’m going to hold my weekly chat Friday at 10 AM ET (rather than later this afternoon) so that I can take your questions on the full list.

That’s a lot of words about the process of making this list, and there will be plenty more in the comments accompanying each ranked player. For now, though, let’s get to the honorable mentions.

Departing the List, Not an Honorable Mention
Shane Bieber (30)
Freddy Peralta (32)
Brandon Woodruff (35)
Max Fried (36)
Luis Garcia (44)
Ty France (46)
Dylan Carlson (49)

We’ve got a few player archetypes here. First, the starters who are losing team control and aren’t currently crushing it. Bieber looks ordinary this season and is a free agent after 2024, Peralta is on a cheap deal but hardly elite, and Woodruff and Fried are injured in addition to rapidly approaching free agency. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of Bieber, Woodruff, or Fried were great next season; I’m sure Peralta will deliver value in excess of his cost to the Brewers for years to come. They just don’t fit in the top tier of value anymore.

The hitter side is basically a reminder that “slightly above average at a lot of things” is a riskier profile than it seems. It wouldn’t be crazy to throw France on the main list somewhere, but a down year offensively hurts when you play first base. If I’m being honest, Carlson was a bit of a reach last year, and he’s been relegated to a platoon role thanks to his struggles against righty pitching. An above-average center fielder with a league average bat is a perfectly nice player, but not quite what we’re looking for here.

Finally, I wasn’t sure what to do with Garcia. He’s going to be an Astro for a while, but I’m starting to wonder if last year was a preview of his long-term level: a luxury five-and-dive starter who fits more towards the bottom of a strong rotation than towards the top. Between that and an elbow injury, I moved him off the list entirely.

Great Players With Big Contracts
Mookie Betts (24)
Mike Trout (47)
Matt Olson (HM)
Nolan Arenado
Freddie Freeman
Kevin Gausman
Francisco Lindor
Corey Seager
Dansby Swanson

These guys all rock. If your goal is to win baseball games, you should want all of them on your team, assuming health (sorry, Mike). If any of them gets moved, however, it’ll be one of those big deals with a ton of cash eaten by the trading team, and that’s not exactly what the trade value list is about. Betts and Olson came the closest to cracking the main list. In fact, both were in the 40s at one point in my tinkering. The point is this: These guys are all awesome, and even with the money attached, their teams would get meaningful value back for trading them. There are just 50 guys I think would net their team more.

Very Good Players Nearing Free Agency
Corbin Burnes (23)
Dylan Cease (39)
Luis Arraez (42)
Pete Alonso (43)
Zack Wheeler (HM)

Burnes is having a down year; Wheeler certainly isn’t. Both of them will hit free agency after the 2024 season, and I’d expect a solid second half and solid next year out of both. That’s not quite enough to tip the scales into the top 50 for me, but obviously both of these guys are good. Cease has an extra year of team control relative to those two, but I think he’s a cut below the other two in expected production. He’s in a sort of awkward in-between area; not dominant enough to be a rental ace, but not under team control long enough to be a long-term foundational piece.

On the hitter side, you could convince me that either of these guys belongs higher up, but I think that their respective team control situations (Alonso hits free agency after 2024, Arraez after 2025) are tenuous enough to suppress their trade value. They get to their impressive production in extremely different ways, and to be honest with you, I’d probably rather have Alonso’s offense than Arraez’s even with the gaudy batting average, but both are capable on that side of the ball. They just don’t contribute enough elsewhere to make the whole package add up.

I Love Your Trade Value, but I’m Not In Love With Your Trade Value
Byron Buxton (12)
Alek Manoah (19)
Brandon Lowe (29)
Jake Cronenworth (31)
Bryan Reynolds (34)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (40)
Ketel Marte (41)
Yandy Díaz
Isaac Paredes

Let’s go through each of these guys in order. Buxton’s position is the issue here – it looks like he’s only a DH now, and that’s a sea change in his value. Manoah was more or less impossible to place; I could see him being completely off the list next year or back in the top 30. The speed with which he turned into a pumpkin doesn’t make me particularly confident that I know what will happen next. Lowe’s pumpkinification, on the other hand, feels more predictable and makes me think I was just too high on him last year. If he’s not putting up top-shelf slugging numbers, he’s more nice piece than All-Star, and that’s exactly what has happened over the past two seasons.

Cronenworth got a contract extension from the Padres, so I’m sure he’s happy with how things have gone, but shoehorning him into a first base role is rough for his overall value. I think he’s just outside of the top 50 as a second baseman, but he’s already 29 and his bat has come back to earth in the past two years. Like Lowe, Reynolds is more solid regular than star, though with him the big change has been that he’s firmly ensconced in a corner now instead of making a run at viability in center. I also wouldn’t be wild about an eight-year deal with him; the AAVs are nice, but that’s a lot of years for a corner outfielder with a 120 wRC+ combined over the past two seasons.

Chisholm hasn’t put together a full season yet and health matters. He’s rapidly improving in center, but between the contact rate questions, the injury issues, and the defensive uncertainty, I couldn’t talk myself into a top 50 ranking. Marte can hit, but he’s missed a lot of time due to injury over the years and his defense doesn’t inspire confidence, though he does seem better since the Diamondbacks planted him at second base consistently. For what it’s worth, I think he’d be no. 51 on the list if I had to pin down a ranking right now, but the injury concerns still worry me even though he’s looked healthy this year.

Díaz might be no. 51 if Marte weren’t. He’s having a career year, no doubt, but even if he doesn’t maintain this level of offensive production, his on-base skills are hugely valuable. If I thought he could handle third base, he’d comfortably make the list, but I think he’s first base only, and between that and age-related regression, I can’t quite convince myself to bump him up. That leaves Paredes, and I won’t lie, I had a tough time with him. His actual production is impressive. His Statcast numbers are horrid. ZiPS thinks he’s a stud. Scouts don’t buy it. I’m bowing to the wisdom of the assembled group I talked to and leaving him off, but I don’t feel good about it.

I’m Skeptical, but I Could Be Convinced
William Contreras
Adolis García
Jonah Heim
Justin Steele

All four of these players are having a breakout season, showing new levels of performance in at least one facet of their game. None are going to be a free agent for quite a while. In each case, though, there’s a risk factor. Contreras’ defense feels tenuous to me, García’s offensive improvement is based on a huge step forward in plate discipline, Heim went from light-hitting to having an excellent bat, and Steele’s two-pitch success weirds me out. I guess what I’m saying is that I just need to see them do it for more time. If they finish the year playing at their current pace, all four would easily clear the top 50.

Friends and Family Picks
Riley Greene (48)
Brayan Bello
Reese Olson
Ezequiel Tovar

Somebody on the FanGraphs staff made a good argument for ranking each of these players in the top 50. I like all of them! In each case, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them take a big leap sometime soon. I’m just not quite there yet – but if I’m wrong, you (and you know who you are) can tell me so.

Assorted Youths (Pitchers)
Mick Abel
Taj Bradley
Bobby Miller
Bryce Miller
Mason Miller
Paul Skenes
Gavin Williams
Bryan Woo

This year’s crop of pitching debuts has been electric. I’ve had fun watching Bradley, the Millers, and Woo, and in my initial attempts at this list, I grouped them at the very tail end of the top 50. I later bumped them down to honorable mention territory, though, because none of them have the track record that would make me comfortable moving an established and controllable contributor for them.

Past that, I asked Eric Longenhagen for some names, because prospect pitching valuations fluctuate wildly and I’m hardly up on the latest details. Abel, Williams, and Skenes look like the best bets to be in the next group of electric debuts. They all have the stuff to succeed at the big league level, it’s just a matter of seeing them do it at this point.

Assorted Youths (Hitters)
Nolan Gorman (HM)
Patrick Bailey
Brett Baty
Dylan Crews
Yainer Diaz
Jackson Holliday
Jarred Kelenic
Josh Lowe
Luis Matos
Jackson Merrill
Miguel Vargas

This is a mix of young hitters in the majors and top prospect bats who could all easily be on the list in a year’s time. As a point of reference, on last year’s list this group featured Francisco Alvarez, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris II, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Walker. It also included a fair number of misses. That’s how it works with hitters with such a short track record – all of them have the tools to excel, but none of them have done it just yet. This is the part of the list that I’m the least sure about because it’s the place where public-side analysts have the least information. I’m going off of my best judgment here, but teams could absolutely covet these guys more or less than my estimation.