2024 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 1-15)

Not long after Dave Dombrowski took the wheel of the franchise, the Phillies began to target huge bullpen velocity via trade to piece around incumbent late-inning guy, Seranthony Domínguez. José Alvarado was acquired in a three-way deal during the winter of 2020 and has since been among the most effective relievers in baseball despite a couple of IL stints for both shoulder and elbow issues throughout the last few years. Since joining the Phillies, his slider usage has exploded (from 12% in his final season with Tampa to 41% in 2023) in part because he’s scrapped his curveball.

Gregory Soto was acquired via trade with Detroit last offseason and also had an uptick in slider usage in his first Phillies season, though so far this spring he’s back to using a fastball-heavy approach. He had his best season from a strike-throwing standpoint in 2023 (3.28 BB/9 IP, over 5 BB/9 IP every year prior), and replicating that in 2024 will be key for Soto to remain a premium late-inning weapon.

Hoffman was released by the Twins near the end of 2023 spring training, signed with the Phillies a few days later, and went on to have what was easily the best season of his career a full decade after he was drafted. The Phillies made immediate changes to his slider and Hoffman’s velocity spiked across the board (three extra ticks on his fastball, six on his slider!) compared to his Grapefruit League performance from just a couple weeks prior, and he suddenly looked like a stable, excellent set-up man.

The newly-extended Matt Strahm, who also made a handful starts last season, is a reliable strike-throwing option who can occasionally go multiple innings. Domínguez is coming off a somewhat down year in which his slider wasn’t missing as many bats. There are enough other high-end options in this bullpen for it to be good even if Seranthony doesn’t bounce back, especially if Orion Kerkering (a 2022 draft pick with an elite slider who was quickly shifted to relief) takes yet another step in his second big league season.

Raisel Iglesias has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in seven of the last eight seasons and is showing no signs of decline, as his velocity has held steady and his secondary stuff continues to garner plus-plus rates of swing-and-miss. Lefty A.J. Minter is entering his walk year as a viable closer option should Father Time make an unexpected visit to Iglesias’ stuff.

Perhaps the more interesting aspects of this bullpen are the players who were acquired via trade each of the last couple of seasons. Joe Jiménez had lumbar spine issues at the end of the 2022 season not long before the Braves acquired him. He looked like his usual self across all of 2023, but his velocity was actually trending up throughout most of the year. Pierce Johnson had worsening issues with walks when he was acquired from Colorado last year and then proceeded to have a much more consistent second half in Atlanta as he more often used his trademark curveball to get ahead of hitters rather than his fastball. Those two and offseason acquisition Aaron Bummer, who I wrote about at length here, have a chance to take a performance leap as they continue to get traction in this org, which tends to optimize pitchers.

You have to project just a little bit to call this bullpen elite, but because there are so many potential options beyond the Iglesias/Minter combo, it’s likely to be an elite group by the end of the season. Some combination of Jiménez, Johnson, and Bummer should take a step forward, and hopefully Tyler Matzek has a successful return from Tommy John. David O’Brien of The Athletic reported last week that Matzek touched 95, which is more in line with his average pre-surgery velo than his peak. Prospect Hurston Waldrep could be pushed quickly in a relief role, or Reynaldo López may not work out as a starter and shift back to the ‘pen. There are many ways this bullpen could be five-deep with really nasty dudes, and that may not even be properly captured here even though they’re ranked second at this position.

Minnesota had an average bullpen last season and added several veterans over the winter who have a chance to make a late-career impact, especially now that closer Jhoan Duran is starting the season shelved with a strained oblique. When healthy, he sits 102 (seriously) and has a 98 mph splinker, a hybrid spltter/sinker.

Slider-heavy lefty Steven Okert, who was acquired for Nick Gordon during the offseason, found his footing as a big leaguer across the last two seasons with Miami. Hard-throwing low-slot righty Justin Topa was a shrewd Indy Ball find by Milwaukee, but he dealt with numerous injuries before he was traded and finally had a healthy 2023 in Seattle as a 32-year-old rookie. It will be interesting to see if the Twins can coax something more out of Josh Staumont, who comes over from Kansas City. There was a while when Staumont (who I saw touch 102 in college) looked like a closer, but he’s been excessively wild the last couple of seasons and so far this spring. His velo has been climbing with each Grapefruit League outing, but he’s walking over a batter per inning.

Perhaps nobody in baseball has had as interesting a decade as Jay Jackson, a 16-year pro who has pitched all over the world, and rarely in the same place for very long. Since 2019, when he came back to affiliated ball from a multi-year stint in Japan and Mexico, he has been with Milwaukee, went back to NPB briefly in 2020, then to San Francisco, Atlanta, Toronto, and now Minnesota.

The incumbent late-inning options here are Griffin Jax (who has maybe the best command of any reliever in baseball and walked just 6.9% of hitters the last two seasons), Brock Stewart (who had a six-tick — !!! — fastball velo increase last season) and Jorge Alcala, who missed most of last year with a forearm strain. Lefty Kody Funderburk, who reminds me of this Suncoast Video-adjacent restaurant from the mall where I grew up, is poised to be one of the Opening Day lefties due to Caleb Thielbar’s hamstring strain.

How realistic is it to expect Pittsburgh’s bullpen to look like this all year? Even if the Pirates are in the NL Central mix come July, it’s possible the trade returns for Aroldis Chapman (who fetched Cole Ragans last year) and David Bednar (who is fifth among all big league relievers in WAR since 2021) might be too juicy for the Pirates to pass up in service of their future.

Bednar, a former Lafayette Leopard, has a career 2.79 FIP in 197 innings. A lat injury has limited him this spring, but he was 95-97 in his first outing back on Thursday. Chapman’s velocity fell a bit throughout last season, but overall 2023 was a remarkable bounce-back en route to the lefty’s second ring. He touched 100 in a recent spring outing and then had a strange velo swoon in his last appearance before publication. It’s something to monitor, but before this he looked poised to have another great year. As a prospect, I had Colin Holderman evaluated as a third bullpen banana on a contending club and that’s what he looked like last year, as he completed his first full big league season. He uses an upper-90s sinker and low-90s cutter to get a ton of groundballs.

Beyond that, this group is only okay. Ryan Borucki adopted a cutter as his primary pitch last season and had an incredible strike-throwing improvement (just four walks in 40.1 innings), which I am perhaps underrating his ability to repeat. All of Carmen Mlodzinski’s (pronounced muh-GIN-ski) pitches had single-digit swinging strike rates last year. In my opinion, he’s an okay long man but not a higher leverage guy.

Perhaps if there’s going to be a breakout late-inning arm from this group, it will be a converted starter. Roansy Contreras, who has been backtracking since a promising rookie campaign, is now out of options and has already been shifted to relief. Luis L. Ortiz is a prime candidate for this sometime in the middle of the year if he continues to struggle with control like he has since his big league debut, especially if some of the other young starters in the org are deemed ready to fill his rotation spot.

It was over a decade ago when the Astros first acquired Hader from the Orioles (along with L.J. Hoes) in exchange for Bud Norris, but Hader was shipped to Milwaukee as part of a huge package for Carlos Gómez and Mike Fiers before he debuted in Houston. Now he’s back on a five-year, $95 million deal and is expected to be the best of Houston’s relievers. His fastball velocity has been down two ticks so far this spring and his slider usage has been closer to even with his fastball’s in his couple of appearances leading up to publication.

Ryan Pressly will shift out of the closer role that he’s occupied for most of the last four seasons in Houston. He should be one of the better set-up men in baseball. Bryan Abreu has honed his all-world breaking ball and posted a sub-2.00 ERA each of the last two seasons. The Hader/Abreu/Pressly backend Ghidorah is as nasty as any in baseball.

Beyond those three, the Astros have a plethora of guys who can provide length. Changeup-oriented righty Seth Martinez is the incumbent in this role, but 28-year-old four-pitch lefty Parker Mushinski and depth starter Brandon Bielak, who is out of options, are also capable of filling this role.

Who might break out from this group? Rafael Montero had strong strikeout and walk rates last year but he was also homer-prone and has come out this spring with two fewer ticks of velo on his fastball, so one of these guys needs to step up. Hard-throwing Dylan Coleman was freed from a Royals org that hasn’t typically been able to develop pitching and is now with one that has. Bennett Sousa was passed around the fringe of Cincinnati’s, Milwaukee’s, and Houston’s rosters last season. He’s a lefty with a good breaking ball and could be a Brooks Raley sequel of sorts. His position on the rubber is already different than his White Sox days.

Devin Williams’ injury obviously hurt the way Milwaukee’s bullpen lines up here. Megill, Payamps, and Uribe are the guys who the org has identified as substitute closer candidates. Uribe was a top prospect in Milwaukee’s system. He throws 100 and has a plus-plus slider, but he’s never walked fewer than 14.8% of opposing hitters. Trevor Megill was on his third team in three years last season after he was DFA’d by the Twins. The Brewers seemed to make alterations to his spike curveball, which played much better last year than in previous seasons. He also experienced his second consecutive season of increased arm strength, but the Brewers shuttled him back and forth from Nashville a bunch, so he wasn’t consistently on the roster let alone in a high-leverage role.

Payamps had a career-best season last year. He had K’d roughly 6/9 IP with other orgs (Arizona, Oakland, Kansas City, Toronto) but had an uptick in 2023 that seemed to coincide with changes to his slider’s movement and added velocity. His slider is his lone pitch that garners above-average swing-and-miss, and it’s tough to call Payamps a late-inning fit with just one plus pitch even though he looks like a new man. If DL Hall doesn’t work as a starter or if the org is motivated to fast-track Jacob Misiorowski in relief (check out the Brewers prospect list for more), then they could have what looks more like a typical backend of a contender’s bullpen late in the year.

If there is a 2024 candidate for a similar leap here it’s Taylor Clarke, who like Payamps has only ever been in orgs that are less good at developing pitching than Milwaukee (Arizona, Kansas City). He’s currently dealing with a knee injury.

Don’t sleep on Elvis Peguero, who has been sitting 95-97 with a good slider again this spring. Former top 100 prospect Aaron Ashby still doesn’t look like the peak version of himself even as he creates distance from the shoulder injury that shelved him for most of last year.

The Rays always seem to make an Amish quilt out of their bullpen, patching odd arms together into an ultimately beautiful whole to cozily wrap around close games. For now, many of the pieces here are familiar. Pete Fairbanks is at the center. He set a career mark for innings pitched in 2023 and sustained upper-90s velocity the whole way. He’s perhaps a precarious bullpen anchor because of his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s best relievers when healthy.

Jason Adam is coming off of two consecutive strong seasons since coming over from the Cubs and scrapping his curveball in favor of more consistent changeup usage. Colin Poche also had a breaking ball tweak last season, his second coming off TJ, as he began to throw his slider much harder than in the past and he was much less homer-prone in 2023 than 2022.

Cutter-heavy soft-tossers Shawn Armstrong and Phil Maton (who came over from Houston in free agency) provide lower-ceiling stability via their command. Jacob Waguespack and Naoyuki Uwasawa came over from NPB. Waguespack’s velocity was climbing throughout the 2023 season and seems to have held in the early going of 2024. Uwasawa is a six-pitch kitchen sink strike-thrower who might benefit from a different approach to pitching. He’s had a walk-prone spring.

Keep in mind that the Rays have a ton of great pitchers starting the season on the IL, so many that a couple of them might be shifted into the bullpen once they return from injury rehab. Shane Baz, who might have turned into a reliever anyway, is the most likely candidate to be ‘penned and end up in a high-leverage role by the end of the season.

The Dodgers bullpen is full of grizzled veterans with a ton of experience. Top 100 prospect Kyle Hurt, who is a couple months shy of his 26th birthday, is the youngest member of their group. Thirty-seven-year-old paragon of perseverance Daniel Hudson is the elder statesman. He is coming off multiple season-ending knee injuries.

The Chavez Ravine relief contingent is largely comprised of successful retreads and throw-ins from trades. Hurt and primary lefty Alex Vesia were in the same deal with Miami for Dylan Floro. Joe Kelly came back as part of last deadline’s Lance Lynn deal and re-upped as a free agent over the winter. Ryan Brasier was designated for assignment by Boston in the middle of last season and then utterly dominant from the moment he changed clothes. Closer Evan Phillips was DFA’d by Tampa Bay in 2021 and Blake Treinen was coming off injury when he was brought in from Oakland a few seasons ago. Both had their stuff tweaked and their performance exploded. Treinen has been dealing with shoulder issues the last couple of years and was struck by a comebacker and suffered a bruised lung this spring.

It’s fair to assume some of the young starters in the system, maybe Emmett Sheehan or Gavin Stone, could eventually end up shifting into a relief role, too. This group is good, and while it’s plausible any individual’s age and injury history might become a problem at the drop of a hat, the Dodgers seem able to find candidates of all ages to replace them, like rows of shark teeth moving into place.

The Cardinals have a great three-arm backend of their bullpen (Helsley, Gallegos, Romero) and a unique weapon in Andre Pallante (who garnered a 79% groundball rate last year), but after that this group is more pedestrian.

Helsley is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game — his fastball averaged 99 mph last season. Gio Gallegos doesn’t throw as hard as the typical set-up man, but his slider generated a 28% swinging strike rate last season, which is elite. I championed Jojo Romero as a prospect and it was great to finally see him healthy and used in a regular role last year, as the fiery three-pitch lefty has the tools to get hitters of both handedness out.

Rule 5 pick Ryan Fernandez seemed like one of the likeliest draftees to stick on their big league roster when he was selected, and he’s barely walked anyone this spring. He’s a rock solid middle inning option. He and Nick Robertson, who has been walk prone and was optioned, both got squeezed off of Boston’s roster and happily acquired here, which tells you a little bit about St. Louis’ roster.

The Cardinals’ activity in free agency (they signed several veteran starters) also created a huge raft of starting pitching depth at Triple-A (Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Mike McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, Connor Thomas, Adam Kloffenstein), and there are a couple other more reliever-y prospects right behind them (Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, arguably Cooper Hjerpe) who could all be ‘penned and fast-tracked this year if the Cardinals contend for the division crown and are motivated to make such a move.

Toronto’s projection took a hit when Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson both began to have elbow trouble within a few days of one another during the middle of spring training. Yimi García is coming off a career year in which he set personal bests for innings pitched and fastball velocity, and tied his career-best full-season strikeout rate. If he can repeat that, he’ll have filled in admirably for Romano during his absence.

The injuries place emphasis on the continued progression of Nate Pearson, who finally pitched something approaching a full season in the big leagues in 2023, and the whole-season return of Chad Green, who came back from Tommy John rehab at the end of 2023. After three years of service time, Pearson has a career 5.00 ERA across just 75.2 big league innings. This spring, it looks like he’s scrapped the slower of his two breaking balls and reintroduced a changeup to his repertoire. Green looked completely healthy and restored from an arm strength standpoint and was utilizing his slider more often than when he was a Yankee.

There are functionally three left-handers in this bullpen because in addition to Génesis Cabrera (nasty stuff, rashes of wildness) and Tim Mayza (medium stuff, consistent strikes and groundballs), Trevor Richards’ ageless changeup makes him a platoon-neutralizing weapon.

Andrés Muñoz is the big man on campus here, with two varieties of heat that regularly eclipse 100 mph. He didn’t quite match his 2022 breakout last season, in large part due to his slider not being quite as effective as he came back from a shoulder strain and him backing off the pitch a bit. You’d like to see him lop off that additional walk, but there’s no real reason to worry too much about him.

Ryne Stanek was signed to a one-year contract, and he’s hoping to rebound from a relatively weak 2023 season. The projection systems aren’t super optimistic, as his strikeout rate has started to deteriorate the last couple of years despite his velocity being as impressive as ever.

Still, having Stanek softens the blow of having both Matt Brash and Gregory Santos unavailable, at least in the early portions of the season. Brash has blossomed since the Mariners threw in the towel on him as a starter, with most of his command issues now ironed out – his walk rate dipped from 14.9% to 9.4% in a season that saw him throw 70.2 innings. Santos had a breakout season with the White Sox, carving up his walk rate as if he was Jason Voorhees visiting a summer camp. His sinker is almost as lively as it is explosive, and he gave up only a single extra-base hit off a slider in 2023.

Gabe Speier is a pitcher I didn’t see coming, and given that the Mariners snagged him on waivers from the Royals, not many others did either. Never a strikeout pitcher in Kansas City, his contact numbers took a sudden turn for the better in Seattle, and he whiffed 11 batters per nine with a tiny walk rate. Speier was unusually bold in throwing his slider to righties, basically mastering the backdoor slider to rack up the strikeouts against them.

Of the eight pitchers we have starting the season in Seattle’s bullpen, only two pitchers, Muñoz and Taylor Saucedo, were even in the organization nine months ago. The Mariners have a good record with castoff relievers, though Saucedo’s going to have to stop issuing easy ball fours to righties to be anything more than the low-leverage lefty in the ‘pen. – Dan Szymborski

Edwin Díaz is returning from a torn patellar tendon suffered while celebrating a win for Puerto Rico in last year’s WBC. He has made just a couple of Grapefruit League appearances and hasn’t yet shown peak velocity (which I think we can all agree is fine at such an early stage of his return), but his ability to locate his fastball to the top of the strike zone has been very consistent. He looks like he’ll be back to being one of, if not the best relievers in baseball.

There are quite a few veteran question marks behind him, but not all of them are negative question marks, if that makes sense. The more positively toned questions are, “How good is Nate Lavender (who I wrote more about here)?”, “What might Shintaro Fujinami become now that he’s being shifted into relief full-time?” and “How good could a healthy Sean Reid-Foley be?”

We might have to wait to learn answers to those. SRF is currently on the mend from more arm trouble but he threw in a minor league game a few days before this was published. If he were to start to season on the IL, it would mean Yohan Ramírez, who is out of options and currently projected not to make the roster, could break camp with the big club. In that vein, Fujinami has minor league options remaining, whereas basically the entire projected Opening Day bullpen does not; he may not truly break out until later this season when he actually gets an opportunity to play.

The scarier question marks are headlined by 38-year-old Adam Ottavino, who is coming off a career-worst season and is only sitting 91-92 so far this spring. Jake Diekman, who has averaged 95 mph with the reliability of a Swiss watch, is also throwing a little less hard so far in 2024. It’s fine to give both veterans the benefit of the doubt if you want to. I’m not sure that applies to Jorge López, who had a dominant first half of 2022 but has basically never been good aside from that.

On the stable side of things is lefty Brooks Raley, who has one of the best sliders in baseball and has posted two consecutive years of sub-3.00 ERAs despite his fastball sitting 89-90. Michael Tonkin had a breakout with the Braves in 2022 and 2023 after pitching in foreign pro leagues and independent ball for most of the several years preceding that. He’s a durable, strike-throwing, multi-inning option.

It will be interesting to watch Craig Counsell pilot a pitching staff that is heavy on lefties in the rotation and light on them in the bullpen. The Cubs also don’t have a ton of roster flexibility here. Of the non-Alzolay projected Opening Day relievers, only Hayden Wesneski and Jose Cuas have options left. It makes it more important to get reliable length out of a couple of these guys in order to keep the whole apparatus fresh. That could come from swingman Drew Smyly, Wesneski, or maybe Mark Leiter Jr., who was a multi-inning option two seasons ago but played a single-inning role last year.

Veteran set-up man and pot-stirrer Héctor Neris brings meaningful postseason experience to a bullpen that otherwise lacks it. His splitter will also enable him to serve as the de facto high-leverage lefty specialist from a group that only has two relief lefties on the entire 40-man roster. One of those is Smyly and the other is Luke Little, who is a wild power pitcher with huge extension.

Little and a few other hard-throwing youngsters might be a consistent part of the Cubbies’ bullpen by the end of the year. Daniel Palencia (who throws 100), Caleb Kilian (who touched 102 before his shoulder started barking this spring), Little, and maybe even Ben Brown (currently slated to be a starter at Triple-A Iowa) could help form a contender’s bullpen hydra in a playoff setting where full-season depth considerations go away.

Tanner Scott and his upper-90s sinker are coming off a career-best season in which he halved his walk rate from the year before. He and Andrew Nardi, who performed like a contender-quality relief lefty in 2023, are the only members of the bullpen whose roles felt cemented from the moment camp began. Injuries to several members of the rotation will probably have some knock-on effects here, as Ryan Weathers and others who could conceivably be in more of a long relief or swingman role are now in line for starts. JT Chargois’ neck injury also creates opportunity for some youngsters and newcomers in the short-term.

Twenty-five-year old righty George Soriano generated above-average swinging strike rates on both his slider and changeup in his rookie season and is now ticketed for more consistent middle relief duty after being on the taxi squad for a chunk of 2023. Rookie Anthony Maldonado should debut at some point this year. He has a plus-plus slider and fantastic strike-throwing track record.

Sixto Sánchez is throwing hard again, and while I wouldn’t go so far as to say, “He’s back!”, he looks good enough to be a big league reliever for however long his body can hold up to the violence and effort of his delivery. Most impressively this spring, Sixto is running his changeup back over the glove-side corner of the plate. Also back from a long injury layoff is Anthony Bender, who broke out in 2021 and then blew out in 2022. He’s sitting 97 this spring and looks fully healthy.

Emmanuel Clase is one of my favorite pitchers to use in MLB the Show, which reflects well on the quality of the game, as Clase ought to be one of the Guardians’ favorite pitchers to use in real life too, and in as many situations as they can squeeze him into. Hard cutter, hard slider, hard feelings. Clase’s 2023 was actually a bit of a down season for him, as he had a bad run on two strikes. Given the quality of his stuff, I don’t expect that to persist and neither do the projections.

Scott Barlow was an unusual addition for Cleveland, as the Guardians actually added salary when they picked him up in exchange for Enyel De Los Santos! Barlow struggled a bit for the Royals last year, but he appeared to have righted the ship in San Diego.

Nick Sandlin’s strikeout and walk rates both went in the right direction, but a spike in his home run rate hid those facts from his ERA. Unless that becomes a consistent issue, both Szymborski and the projections aren’t banking on him allowing 12 homers again.

Big lefty Tim Herrin didn’t quite match his minor league breakout season in 2023, but he’s got a potentially plus fastball and slider, and a curveball that I’d love to see more. And until Sam Hentges returns from a finger injury, he’s the only lefty in the ‘pen, so he’ll likely be given a great deal of patience if he runs into problems. When he does return, Hentges is the safer bet of the pair of southpaws, as hitters have trouble getting any kind of loft against him, even when they make good contact.

Eli Morgan and Cade Smith sounds like a mid-card WWE tag team from 2011, and that’s pretty much their role with the Guardians this year. James Karinchak will fit in somewhere when he returns from injury. He’ll always rack up the strikeouts with his deceptive fastball and 12-6 curve. Unfortunately, he sometimes doesn’t have any clearer an idea where his pitches are going than the batters do. – Dan Szymborski