2024 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

Already a seven-time All-Star and former MVP, Freeman put together an MVP-caliber campaign in 2023, setting full-season highs in WAR (7.9), batting average, on-base percentage and wRC+ (163) via a .331/.410/.567 slash line. He topped 200 hits for the first time, hit more doubles (59) than any player in 23 years, and swiped 23 bases in 24 attempts while bopping 29 homers. That said, a few elements of his performance bear watching. His 16.6% strikeout rate was his highest since 2019, his 9.9% walk rate his lowest since ’11 (even with 12 intentional walks); meanwhile, his 41.8% hard-hit rate was his lowest since ’18, and his 90.0 mph average exit velo represented his third straight year of decline. While out of whack with his other metrics, his -9 DRS was alarming as well. None of this portends doom, but it’s worth a reminder as he enters his age-34 season that some amount of regression is likely.

Freeman started at first for all but one game last year, so whoever backs him up isn’t likely to spend many innings there. Last year, manager Dave Roberts bypassed Muncy entirely in favor of glove men Enrique Hernández and Miguel Vargas when he needed a fill-in, but if an injury does fell Freddie, it seems more likely Muncy temporarily reclaims his spot while a stronger defender mans third.

The Braves are doing just fine without Freeman thanks to Olson, who led the majors with 54 homers and 139 RBI (and the National League in slugging percentage) while playing every game and batting .283/.389/.604 (160 wRC+); in fact, only Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts outdid his 6.7 WAR. Though early in the season his swings and misses — including a 35.2% strikeout rate in March and April, with whiff rates above 40% on four-seamers, curves, and sliders — generated understandable concern, mechanical adjustments shored up the holes in his swing. He hit the ball harder than ever, setting career highs in average and maximum exit velocity (93.7 mph and 118.6 mph, respectively) as well as barrel and hard-hit rates (16.4% and 55.1%, respectively). He was even more durable than Freeman, playing 162 games for the second straight season and leading all first basemen with 1,426 innings, though his defensive metrics ranged from great (8 DRS) to subpar (-3 RAA).

With Olson playing all but 14 innings at first last year, nobody’s going to get rich backing him up; both d’Arnaud and Duvall have experience there, though the former hasn’t played the position since 2019, the latter since 2018.

The combination of Rhys Hoskins’ season-ending torn ACL and Harper’s own limitations in the wake of his record-setting return from Tommy John surgery led the Phillies to move their superstar to first base, and the experiment was successful enough to make the move permanent. Harper was basically average in 303 defensive innings, no small feat given the rapidity of his conversion, and should improve with repetition. Offensively, his .293/.401/.499 (142 wRC+) line was well short of his MVP-winning 2021 performance — in part due to a career-longest 37-game homerless drought — but right in line with his career numbers. Likewise his Statcast metrics were a bit down from his peak; his 15.2% barrel rate placed in the 92nd percentile, down from the 94th to 97th percentiles from 2019–21. Odds are that Harper has peaked, as he’s now 31 and entering his 13th season, but he’s healthier than he’s been in a couple years and was hitting the ball harder late in the season than immediately after his return.

Bohm did most of the fill-in work at first during the first half, providing some relief from his generally woeful defense at third. Though his 105 wRC+ was his best since his hot 2020 rookie stint, he hasn’t shown he can maintain first base-caliber production. Merrifield, who has just 12 innings at first over the past four seasons, is a break-glass-in-emergency option. Hall, who raked at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2022 and ’23, is a card-carrying member of Quadruple-A.

In his age-31 season, Díaz set full-season bests with a .330/.410/.522 line, won the American League batting title, and ranked third with a 164 wRC+ despite a lingering groin injury that limited him to 137 games. Even with his ultra-selective approach and his comically bulging biceps, he still hit far more grounders than fly balls and produced his lowest average launch angle since 2020 (5.7 degrees). But he did hit a career-high 22 homers and generally punished the ball, with a 93.4 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile) and 54% hard-hit rate (97th percentile). Per Statcast, he was a major league-best 15 runs above average against curveballs, with a .512 AVG and .884 SLG in 47 PA. After years of declining metrics at third base, he played almost exclusively at first and was average-ish, helping him to a career-best 4.7 WAR.

Aranda, a lefty entering his age-26 season, provided help at first, second, third, and DH late last season, hitting .230/.340/.368 (102 wRC+) in 103 PA, albeit with a 30.1% strikeout rate and meager Statcast numbers (.193 xBA, .303 xSLG). The righty-swinging Paredes, who broke out to hit .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) with 31 homers, played regularly at third but spotted at first, often in the late innings. If and when Mead, who’s 31st on our Top 100 Prospects list, secures a major league spot, he could push Paredes to more time at first, with Díaz at DH.

Guerrero slipped even further from the heights of his stellar 2021 season, hitting a modest .264/.345/.444 (118 wRC+) with 26 homers and just 1.0 WAR. He pulled the ball with greater frequency than ever, cut his groundball rate, and posted barrel and hard-hit rates, as well as an average exit velocity, in line with his still-good 2022. It all paid considerably fewer dividends, though, with the Rogers Centre’s taller fences, his spray angle, and his heat maps all providing fertile ground for inquiry into his decline, if not definitive answers to its cause. What’s more, Guerrero’s defense took a huge step backwards, with his RAA declining seven runs to a major league worst -10 and his DRS dropping nine runs to -6. He’s still just 25, so a bounce back with the bat seems likely, but he’s increasingly at risk of a DH-only future.

With Brandon Belt gone, the Blue Jays have other alternatives behind Vladito, most notably the 40-year-old Votto, freshly signed to a minor league deal after hitting just .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) in his return from left rotator cuff and biceps surgery. We’ll see if there’s life in his bat yet. The 39-year-old Turner, whose 114 wRC+ with the Red Sox last year represented his third straight drop, could get time here in addition to DH and third base.

Alonso’s 46 homers were his most since his 53-homer 2019 rookie campaign, but his season was marred by a fastball-induced bone bruise on his left wrist, suffered on June 7. Returning in 10 days instead of the expected 3-4 weeks, he hit just .132/.252/.297 (57 wRC+) over his next 25 games, barreling 6.2% of batted balls while striking out 25.2% of the time. On either side of that stretch he posted healthier (and uncannily similar) numbers — 22 homers, 16.9% barrel rate, 136 wRC+ before, 20 homers, 15.7% barrel rate, 132 wRC+ after — but he maintained that higher strikeout rate and finished with an ugly .217/.318/.504 (121 wRC+) line. The poorly-managed, power-sapping injury mostly explains his woes, and Alonso was still reasonably productive.

With the 29-year-old slugger in his walk year and unlikely to sign an extension, he’s a midseason trade candidate if the Mets aren’t in contention, so both Choi and Vientos bear watching. After posting a 120 wRC+ in a platoon role from 2018–22, the lefty-swinging Choi collapsed to a .163/.239/.385 (65 wRC+) line with a higher-than-typical chase rate while toiling for the Pirates and Padres, but his .237 xBA and .493 xSLG suggests he was often robbed. Vientos, a 24-year-old righty who grazed last year’s Top 100 list as a power-hitting four-corners bat, scuffled as well (.211/.253/.367, 69 wRC+), hitting the ball very hard but chasing all too often.

A year after finally winning NL MVP honors with a season that featured league leads and career highs in wRC+ (176) and SLG (.578), Goldschmidt hit a comparatively modestly .268/.363/.447, suffering the second-largest drop in the former category (down 54 points) and third-largest in the latter (down 131 points) among batting title qualifiers. His major Statcast numbers actually improved slightly across the board, but his pull rate fell from 37.7% to 33.1%, and the gap between his SLG and xSLG swung by 135 points (from +.096 to -.039). Other than his spray angle, there’s little to suggest the contrast between his 2022 and ’23 seasons was driven by more than variance and luck, but as Goldschmidt enters his age-36 season, the reality is that his production is more likely to be closer to the latter season than the former.

Carpenter staged a remarkable comeback with the Yankees in 2022 before fracturing his left foot with a foul ball, but he couldn’t rediscover that groove with the Padres, in part because Petco Park lacks Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch; he hit an anemic .176/.322/.319 (86 wRC+). At 38, he may well be cooked, in which case the versatile Donovan, who hit a solid .284/.365/.422 (118 wRC+) in 2023, is the more likely backup.

Casas entered last season at no. 29 on our Top 100 Prospects list and immediately face planted, hitting just .133/.283/.293 in March and April while striking out 29.2% of the time and making too much weak contact. The Red Sox could have packed the then 23-year-old first baseman off to Triple-A, but they stuck with him and were rewarded, as he posted a 145 wRC+ the rest of the way, finishing at .263/.367/.490 with 24 homers; his overall 129 wRC+ ranked eighth in the AL. Casas showed exceptional plate discipline and selectivity, chasing just 22.1% of pitches outside the zone, and he hit the ball hard, highlighted by a 13.1% barrel rate. His 25.1% strikeout rate and subpar defense are cause for some concern, but he’s already a middle-of-the-lineup threat and could develop into a star.

The well-traveled Cron is bidding to make his sixth team in seven seasons but is coming off a dismal .248/.295/.434 (82 wRC+) showing in part-time duty with the Rockies and Angels. For a righty whose utility depends upon his ability to mash lefties, his 77 wRC+ in 266 PA against them over the past two seasons doesn’t bode well. Dalbec has regressed from his 25-homer 2021 season to the point that he spent most of last season at Triple-A; after fanning in 34.3% of the time in Worcester, he struck out in a majority of his 53 PA with the Red Sox, which, yikes. Refsnyder couldn’t replicate his hot 2022 showing last year, hitting for a 93 wRC+ in a career-high 243 PA.

For the second season in a row, Walker put together a reasonably good approximation of a post-peak Goldschmidt season, batting .258/.333/.497 (120 wRC+) with 33 homers, 11 steals and 3.8 WAR. That said, he didn’t hit the ball exceptionally hard when he wasn’t barreling it, and he got a bit lucky, finishing 37 points ahead of his .460 xSLG while essentially replicating his 2022 pull and groundball rates. What helped Walker stand out relative to his peers was his fielding, as his 9 RAA led all first basemen, while his 9 DRS and 3.5 UZR both ranked second.

As Walker has played 302 games at first base in the past two seasons, he hasn’t left his backups much to work with, which is a good thing considering that Peterson hit for a 74 wRC+ last year, Smith — who took seven of the team’s 12 non-Walker starts in 2023 — an 81 wRC+, and Rivera an 83 wRC+. Better hope that Walker stays healthy.

After hitting for a 128 wRC+ while averaging 2.1 WAR from 2020–22 and setting a high with 20 homers in the last of those seasons, France slipped to a 104 wRC+ (.250/.337/.366) with 12 homers and just 0.5 WAR last year. He chased a career high 37.9% of pitches outside the zone, walked just 6.5% of the time, and didn’t hit the ball very hard; he slugged just .346 against fastballs. While his 6.8% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate actually represented improvements on 2022, they placed in the 34th and 35th percentiles, respectively — not what you’d expect from your first baseman. France’s problems are said to stem from a June 2022 left elbow injury suffered in a collision; he’s overhauling his mechanics this spring in hopes of ridding himself of some bad habits.

Raley, who played 35 games at first for the Rays last year in addition to 65 in the outfield, hit .249/.333/.490 (130 wRC+) with 19 homers and 14 steals in just 406 PA in his not-quite-rookie season (he had exceeded 45 active roster days). He figures to see most of his playing time in an outfield corner. Garver, the regular DH, and Moore, the jack of all trades, have just 51 and 74.2 innings at first base in their respective careers, including a combined total of 6.1 last year.

After recurrent left knee problems wrecked his 2022 season, Wade rebounded to something closer to his ’21 form, hitting .256/.373/.417 (122 wRC+). He showed exceptional plate discipline, with a 20.7% chase rate (fourth-best among all qualifiers) and a 14.6% walk rate (seventh), and while his raw Statcast numbers were unexceptional — only his barrel rate was above the 50th percentile — he put the ball over the wall 17 times and finished with an 86th-percentile xwOBA. He played far more first base than ever, with his metrics there ranging from average to a couple runs below.

While the lefty-swinging Wade managed a 101 wRC+ against lefties in 81 PA last year, that was after years of struggle against them. The Giants have one of the game’s most reliable lefty-mashers in Flores, who hit .303/.361/.527 (142 wRC+) in 181 PA against them last year and owns a 120 career mark in that context. First base is by far the safest place to stash his glove; last year, he was above average there according to the major metrics but below average at the hot corner.

The top pick of the 2020 draft was so overwhelmed as a rookie in ’22 that he was demoted to Triple-A for a refresher course. Torkelson started slowly last year, but showed signs of putting it all together as the season progressed. With a dreadful April and a subpar June, he finished the first half hitting just .228/.309/.402 (95 wRC+) with 12 homers, but hit .238/.318/.498 (121 wRC+) with 19 homers in the second. He generally punished the ball, with a 14.1% barrel rate (89th percentile), but fell 41 points short of his .487 xSLG, with a larger shortfall at Comerica Park (though it tends to favor righties) than elsewhere. In fact, Torkelson hit just .219/.312/.387 at home compared to .246/.314/.502 (with 20 of his 31 homers) on the road. The 24-year-old slugger needs to improve his handling of sliders and offspeed stuff, and he rated as the position’s worst defender by both DRS (-11) and UZR (-4.7), leaving him plenty of room to improve.

Canha’s high OBPs tend to offset his modest power; last year he hit .262/.355/.400 (111 wRC+) for the Mets and Brewers while playing more first base (18 games) than in any season since 2015. He’s likely to get the bulk of his playing time in left field. Ibañez and McKinstry are utilitymen likely to play more second and third base than first.

Lowe hit for a 141 wRC+ with 27 homers in 2022 while taking an aggressive tack, with a 34.9% chase rate and a 7.4% walk rate, but last year returned to a more conservative approach that yielded more modest results in line with his ’21 showing. Chasing just 22.2% of pitches, he hit .262/.360/.414 (114 wRC+) with 17 homers while walking 12.8% of the time. He’s a true spray hitter, one of only nine with at least 300 PA and a higher rate of going oppo than pulling, though his high groundball rate generally isn’t the path to star-caliber production. While Lowe has been exceptionally durable (161 games, all at first, last year), he’ll likely miss the first week or two of the season with an oblique strain.

Foscue is a high-contact/fringe-power prospect with 30-grade defense; he has enough situational utility at first, second, and third to carve out a role like the aforementioned Flores. Walsh, who had a big breakout with the Angels in 2021 but then spent a year and a half battling neurological issues and hit for just a 33 wRC+ in 116 PA last year, is vying for a chance to rebound and serve in a platoon role. Crim is a Triple-A depth guy who lacks the power to stick in the majors. Duran, a utilityman who took the lone non-Lowe start at first last year, is coming off a nice little breakout (.276/.324/.443, 107 wRC+) and could again fill in for Lowe.

The 11th pick of the 2023 draft out of Florida Atlantic University, Schaneul made a beeline for the majors and provided some stability at a position where the Angels used a record 14 players. The lefty-swinging Schanuel turned in a weird .275/.402/.330 (112 wRC+) line with a 15.2% walk rate but just a 2.2% barrel rate. He’s extremely selective (21.7% chase rate, 41.4% swing rate) with excellent contact skills and fringe power; manager Ron Washington plans to bat him second, which will work if it’s suddenly 1989 again. His 30-grade defense will have to improve to round out the value of his nontraditional first base profile; his defensive metrics were all in the red, albeit in just 244 innings.

Drury is the anti-Schanuel, a free-swinging righty with legitimate power and a decent enough glove to play second base, where he started 81 times last year (32 at first); he hit .262/.306/.497 with 26 homers but just a 4.8% walk rate. He’ll likely serve as a platoon partner with additional time elsewhere. Sanó, the former Twins thumper, played just 20 games in 2022 due to left knee surgery and none last year; he’s lost 58 pounds for his attempted comeback. White is trying to rejuvenate his career after disastrous stints with the Mariners in 2020–21 and numerous injuries since; left hip labrum surgery limited him to two minor league games last year. Thaiss, the backup catcher, mainly played first base in the minors before converting.

Baltimore’s all-Ryan platoon features the lefty-swinging O’Hearn and the righty Mountcastle, a pair of similarly productive free swingers with plenty of power. After five seasons of diminishing returns with the Royals, O’Hearn reworked his stance to close up some holes in his swing and hit .289/.322/.480 (118 wRC+ with 14 homers in just 368 PA, only 29 of which came against lefties. The O’s will also try to squeeze him into the lineup in the outfield corners. Mountcastle hit .270/.328/.452 (114 wRC+) with 18 homers and a walk rate about double that of O’Hearn’s (7.9% vs. 4.1%). A 30-grade defender as an infield prospect, he’s developed into a capably average first baseman according to the metrics, and figures to pick up additional time at DH.

Mayo is a big 22-year-old righty who just placed 23rd on our Top 100 Prospects list, a third baseman with 70-grade raw power but a lack of mobility that will lead to a position change; he played 28 games at first in Double- and Triple-A but could get a look in right field, where he can take advantage of his 70-grade arm.

After an impressive 2022 debut (136 wRC+ with 10 homers in 72 games), Pasquantino started hot, with a 135 wRC+ in March and April, but he quickly tailed off. He ended with a .247/.324/.437 (103 wRC+) line with nine homers in 260 PA before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder. The 26-year-old lefty is a high-contact hitter who has struck out less than 12% of the time in both of his partial seasons while posting middling barrel rates (7.4% in 2023), and though he graded as a 55 fielder, his metrics have been subpar thus far, albeit in just 670.1 innings.

Pratto got a long look in Pasquantino’s absence but struggled, as he did in 2022 as well. The 25-year-old lefty has 70-grade power but serious contact woes; he struck out 40% of the time while hitting .232/.307/.353 (79 wRC+). He’s likely bound for Triple-A to start the season, leaving Perez as the most frequently used backup in addition to his regular catching duties. Time appeared to catch up to him in his age-33 season; aside from his 23 homers, his production cratered, as he hit just .255/.292/.422 with a notable drop in his quality of contact en route to career lows in wRC+ (86) and WAR (-0.3).

Noelvi Marte’s 80-game PED suspension has somewhat simplified the Reds’ crowded infield picture. Candelario, their big free agent signing this winter, is likely to spend the bulk the season’s first three months at third base instead of first, opening up more time for Encarnacion-Strand, whose own third base work in the minors was fringy enough that he may be more suited for first. The 24-year-old righty made a solid contribution in the second half last year, hitting .270/.328/.477 (112 wRC+) with 13 homers in just 241 PA after tearing up the International League. He’s got 70-grade raw power, but he’s a hacker with just a 30 hit tool; he chased 38.7% of pitches and struck out 28.6% of the time.

Candelario, a 30-year-old switch-hitter with very little in the way of platoon splits, hit a career-high 22 homers to go with a .251/.336/.471 (117 wRC+) line for the Nationals and Cubs; he was 64 points ahead of his xSLG, but the move to hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark could mask some expected regression. India, a 27-year-old righty who hasn’t been able to replicate his 2019 NL Rookie of the Year season, is coming off a 99 wRC+ season with 17 homers and 14 steals; first base is one of the new positions he’s been asked to learn in order to fit in with the team’s younger, higher-upside arrivals. Steer, a 26-year-old righty, led the Reds with 23 homers while posting a 118 wRC+ last year; his glove is questionable at every position. Ford, a 31-year-old lefty, set a career high with 16 homers in 251 PA for Seattle, good for a 123 wRC+.

Rizzo got off to a torrid start in 2023, producing a 146 wRC+ through May 28, when he collided with Fernando Tatis Jr. He missed his next three games due to what the Yankees called a neck injury, but upon returning, he hit for just a 43 wRC+ over the next two months before the team belatedly figured out he was experiencing post-concussion symptoms and shut him down. Though he rehabbed to the point where a return was possible, he didn’t play again during the Yankees’ lost season, and finished at .244/.328/.378 (100 wRC+). The 34-year-old lefty is said to be healthy now, but Rizzo’s projection equates to a 111 wRC+, right at the major league average for first basemen last year — not a huge help.

LeMahieu, a 35-year-old righty who’s slated to be the starting third baseman, is coming off his second 101 wRC+ in three years, though he did post a 129 wRC+ after the All-Star break compared to a 77 before, when he was still dealing with the effects of a right big toe injury. Cabrera, a 25-year-old switch-hitting utilityman who was very good in a late-2022 stint but terrible last year, is another alternative.

Manzardo, a 23-year-old lefty acquired in the Aaron Civale trade, hit .236/.337/.464 (97 wRC+) with 17 homers, a 13.3% walk rate, and a 19.3% strikeout rate at the Rays’ and Guardians’ Triple-A affiliates. After placing 28th on our in-season prospect list with a 50 FV grade, he fell out of the Top 100 when concerns about his power led to his being downgraded to a 45 FV prospect. His feel for sweet spot contact is strong enough to project him to produce at a position-appropriate level,

Manzardo will start the year at Triple-A despite a strong spring, a move facilitated by his not being on the 40-man roster yet. That opens the door for De Los Santos, a 20-year-old righty-swinging Rule 5 pick from the Diamondbacks. He has 70-grade raw power but hit just .254/.297/.431 (86 wRC+) at Double-A. As he can’t be demoted, this might be a quick sink-or-swim audition. Either way, Naylor will be in the picture. The 26-year-old lefty hit .308/.354/.489 (128 wRC+) last year with 17 homers and 10 steals. Despite his raw power and stocky frame, he doesn’t light up Statcast, but his feel for contact has improved such that he struck out just 13.7% of the time last year. He’s developed into a solid defender at first base but figures mainly to DH. Fry is a five-corner utilityman who adds catching to the familiar mix — a rarity that makes it worth rooting for him to replicate last year’s productivity (.238/.319/.416, 106 wRC+).

After bashing 30 homers and posting a 122 wRC+ for the pennant-winning Phillies in 2022, Hoskins tore his left ACL during spring training and missed all of last season, his final one before free agency. He’s landed with a team that’s desperate for first base help, as the Brewers have netted just 0.8 WAR from an assortment of off-brand first basemen — Daniel Vogelbach, Rowdy Tellez, Keston Hiura, Jedd Gyorko, and more — over the last four years. The 31-year-old Hoskins is a more established hitter than any of them, with enough power and patience to offset a 25% strikeout rate and fringy defense. Capably average beats replacement level any day.

Bauers, a 28-year-old lefty, had impressive enough exit velos at Triple-A that the Yankees took a flyer on him despite his contact woes. While he did post an 18.7% barrel rate last year, he was overexposed amid a slew of injures, and struck out 34.9% of the time while batting .202/.279/.413 (89 wRC+). Black is an intriguing prospect, a 23-year-old former first-round pick with a hit-over-power profile and no clear defensive home; he’s played just 39 games at Triple-A, and just 16 at Double- and Triple-A at first base. Miller is a utilityman whose lack of offense really stands out at first base.

Cronenworth’s part in last year’s infield shuffle did not pay off, as the two-time All-Star created a huge drag on the offense by slipping from a 110 wRC+ to a 92 and shed about three-quarters of a win in terms of defense (including positional value); he plunged from 4.2 WAR to 1.0. Unless he can reverse three straight seasons of declining average exit velocities, barrel rates and hard-hit rates, he’ll again be a liability.

As to who else could play there, Profar has some experience at first but is trying to rebound from a career-worst season (76 wRC+, -2.0 WAR). Batten is a 28-year-old righty-swinging utilityman who hit .258/.355/.358 (106 wRC+) in 139 PA with the Padres last year, barreling exactly one (1) ball. Pauley and Martorella are both 23-year-old lefties who grade as 45 FV prospects and who have each played just 20-something games at Double-A; the former hit a combined .308/.393/.538 (152 wRC+) with 23 homers at three minor league stops while playing mostly third base, while the latter hit .255/.361/.437 (123 wRC+) with 19 homers at two stops while playing first and left field.

Vaughn finished with a career-high 21 homers and the first positive WAR (0.3) of his three-year career, but his .258/.314/.429 (103 wRC+) line doesn’t really cut it for a full-time first baseman. He chased outside the zone too often, walked just 5.9% of the time, didn’t hit the ball hard with consistency (8.4% barrel rate), and hit too many grounders for a big, slow righty. His defense was at least better than his previous work in the outfield, with his metrics ranging from -5 RAA to 3.5 UZR. He’s about to turn 26, so maybe he can turn things around, but for a player taken with the third pick of the 2019 draft, he’s been a real disappointment.

The White Sox aren’t exactly awash in alternatives. Sheets, a 27-year-old lefty, hit just .203/.267/.331 (61 wRC+) with -1.4 WAR, with subpar-to-cringeworthy defensive metrics for first base and in the outfield. Moustakas has produced a wRC+ in the 70s and a WAR below zero for three straight seasons.

Bell has produced such diminishing returns since a hot start in Washington in 2022 that the Guardians punted him just 97 games into the first year of a two-year, $33 million contract. He did improve from a 96 wRC+ with Cleveland to 119 with Miami, finishing at .247/.325/.419 (105 wRC+) with 22 homers but just 0.4 WAR due to his DH-caliber defense. His 45.7% pull rate was a career high, and his 48.3% groundball rate his lowest since 2019, but even with a good number of pulled fly balls, he just wasn’t that productive. He struggled to just a 92 wRC+ against righties, which was out of character, as his splits have generally been level.

A year after winning the AL batting title, Arraez added an NL one to his collection, hitting a searing .354/.393/.469 (132 wRC+) while striking out just 5.5% of the time; the next-lowest qualifier was nearly twice as high, at 10%. After playing more first base than second in 2022, he played far more second base last year, making just 12 appearances at first, but he appears to be slated for more this year. Johnston, a 26-year-old lefty, is “a bottom of the spectrum bat [who] might be an above-replacement player if you gave him a whole year of at-bats,” according to Eric Longenhagen. Mancini hasn’t hit since being traded by the Orioles in mid-2022; last year he scuffled to a 74 wRC+ with the Cubs.

Noda’s .229/.364/.406 slash line as a 27-year-old rookie wasn’t pretty, but it was productive, good for a 123 wRC+. Though he chased just 22.3% of pitches outside the zone, he struck out 34.3% of the time, suggesting he was passing up some hittable pitches. When he connected, he did produce a 13% barrel rate amid very good Statcast metrics, and he had a minimal platoon split, so he should see the bulk of the playing time at first.

Andujar, who drilled 27 homers as a rookie for the Yankees in 2018, has hit just a dozen since amid shoulder and wrist injuries. Last year’s 105 wRC+ with the Pirates was his first above-average contribution since then, albeit in just 90 PA. Butler, a 23-year-old lefty outfielder, entered last year as Oakland’s no. 2 prospect but hit just .211/.240/.341 (60 wRC+) with a 3.1% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate. Given his 70-grade power and above-average speed, he’s worth a longer look and could add first base to his mix, where he’s played in the minors. Brown, their regular right fielder, has a fair bit of experience here but dipped from 116 to 92 in the wRC+ department. Soderstrom, a backup catcher who produced just a 35 wRC+ in 138 PA and hasn’t been above league average since a short Double-A stint in 2022, is miscast if he’s playing first. Davis, out of a job and a $6.9 million salary in San Francisco once Matt Chapman signed, will be the regular third baseman; he tailed off after a hot start last year, but his 104 wRC+ and 18 homers would stand out on this team.

A lefty-swinging 26-year-old rookie acquired from the Dodgers, Busch is a born DH who hasn’t played first base regularly since college. The 84th-ranked prospect on our Top 100 list, he hit a sizzling .323/.431/.618 (150 wRC+) at Triple-A Oklahoma City but just .167/.247/.292 (49 wRC+) with a 33.3% strikeout rate in 81 PA in the majors. He’ll have a chance to establish himself at first base, but the return of Bellinger looms large. The former MVP revitalized his career with a .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) performance, with 26 homers and 20 steals as well as a more contact-focused two-strike approach; his slash stats were well ahead of his .268 xBA and .434 xSLG, suggesting there could be substantial regression ahead. He’ll probably see more time in center field, but the eventual arrival of prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong (20th on our Top 100) could push him to first, where he played 59 games last year and 321 during his career.

Cooper, a 33-year-old righty, hit a meek .251/.304/.419 (96 wRC+) for the Marlins and Padres with career worst walk and strikeout rates (6.8% and 28.9%). He could share time in a platoon with Busch. Likewise for Wisdom, a 32-year-old righty who has power and versatility in his favor but struck out at a 36.8% clip last year. Unless several of these guys are out of the picture, its tough to see how Mervis or Smith get playing time here given their limitations.

The first year of Abreu’s three-year, $58.5 million deal resulted in a career-worst season, as he produced just a 50 wRC+ with one homer through the end of May, and finished at .237/.296/.383 (86 wRC+) with 18 homers and -0.6 WAR even after digging out of that early hole. He increasingly struggled against fastballs, and set career lows in pull rate (33.9%) and average exit velocity (89.0 mph) while posting his lowest barrel rate (8.7%) since 2017. Inflammation in his lumbar spine — which sidelined him for two weeks in August after bothering him on and off earlier in the season — may have been a culprit. His work with hitting coach Alex Cíntron did pay dividends late in the year, especially in the Division Series, but he doesn’t inspire much confidence entering his age-37 season.

Singleton’s return from baseball oblivion after eight years out of the majors was a triumph on one level, but he hit just .165/.267/.264 (51 wRC+) with two homers in 105 PA. The 32-year-old lefty is out of options but figures to get an early-season look at least. Diaz and Caratini, the catching tandem, both have experience at first base; the former has the better bat (and middling defense) so it makes more sense to squeeze him in here once in awhile.

For the third straight season, Kirilloff was beset by injuries; this time, it was a recovery from offseason right wrist surgery and a right (non-throwing) shoulder strain that limited him to 88 games, still his highest total over that stretch. His solid offense (.270/.348/.445, 120 wRC+) was alas offset by subpar defense (-8 DRS, -5 RAA). The 26-year-old lefty is reportedly healthy after undergoing a bursectomy in his right shoulder; thankfully his labrum and rotator cuff did not need repair. His struggles against lefties and his penchant for injuries led the Twins to sign Santana, a 37-year-old switch-hitter now on his sixth team in the past four seasons. He’s hit for a 113 wRC+ against lefties since 2020, but just an 87 wRC+ against righties. That he’s regarded as the better defender of the pair means he’ll be playing more first base on the occasions when both are in the lineup, but unless Kirilloff can stay healthy, the likelihood is that Santana will be overexposed.

Julien a 24-year-old lefty coming off a sizzling 136 wRC+ as a rookie, and Farmer, a 33-year-old righty, are the team’s second base platoon. Both have a smidgen of experience at first base. The wild card here is Miranda, a 25-year-old righty who hit for a 117 wRC+ while splitting his time between the infield corners as a rookie in 2022. He was limited to 40 games and a 57 wRC+ last year due right shoulder troubles that culminated in surgery to remove scar tissue from his labrum and rotator cuff. If he’s healthy, he could see time here or at DH.

After clouting 35 homers with a 110 wRC+ in 2022, Tellez got off to a solid start last year, hitting .244/.332/.494 (118 wRC+) with 12 homers through the end of May while swinging less frequently than usual and making lower-quality contact. Soon his production began to sag, which may have been related to the right forearm inflammation that sidelined him for six weeks; later he conceded he had played through pain. He homered just once after May, played sparingly after returning, finished with just a .215/.291/.376 (78 wRC+) line, and was non-tendered. The 29-year-old lefty figures to get a chance to rebound while paired in a platoon with Joe, a 31-year-old righty coming off a modest 107 wRC+ while setting career highs with 11 homers and 472 PA. He was especially adept against lefties (.265/.368/.452, 124 wRC+ in 193 PA) but subpar against righties (.235/.319/.401, 95 wRC+ in 279 PA).

Also likely to be in the mix is Triolo, a 26-year-old righty who made the jump to the majors after just 53 games at Triple-A and played more third base and second than first. He held his own at the plate, hitting .298/.388/.398 (118 wRC+) with three homers and six steals in 209 PA, though he didn’t hit the ball vey hard. He also struck out 30.1% of the time, and slugged .258 with a 45.9% whiff rate against breaking pitches.

Meneses blazed to a 157 wRC+ with 13 homers in a 56-game rookie season in 2022, but the league caught up to him last year, as he dipped to a 96 wRC+ (.275/.321/.401) and equalled that home run total in 154 games. He struggled with curveballs after annihilating them in 2022, but then his performance against just about every pitch type besides sinkers and cutters fell off significantly from year to year. He’ll see time at both DH and first base.

Gallo stalled on the interstate for a fourth straight season, hitting .177/.301/.440 for a 104 wRC+ with the Twins. As that line suggests, he produced a handful of extreme metrics; for one, he whiffed on 54.2% of all pitches besides fastballs, and struck out a career-high 42.8% of the time, which is saying something. On the rare occasions he did make contact, he hit the stuffing out of the ball, with a 58.6% pull rate, an 18.6% barrel rate and a 52.9% hard-hit rate. It was still all so much less, and so much less fun, than his heyday with the Rangers. In any event, he’ll get reps at first base and both outfield corners.

Yepez is a 26-year-old righty who hit for a 107 wRC+ with 12 homers as a rookie in 2022 but sank to a 51 wRC+ in just 65 PA last year before being non-tendered by the Cardinals. Adams is a 27-year-old backstop who had enough small-sample success at the plate (.273/.331/.478, 116 wRC+ in 158 PA) to call to mind Jazayerli’s Law of Backup Catchers.

Bryant’s seven-year, $182 million contract has been nothing short of disastrous, as the former Cubs star has played just 122 games and netted -0.6 WAR in two seasons. Last year, he missed half a season due to a left heel bruise and a broken left index finger, hitting just .233/.313/.367 (73 wRC+) with 10 homers in 335 PA. Though he never lit up Statcast even at his peak, his 85.7 mph average exit velo, 6% barrel rate, and 31.5% hard-hit rate were sickly enough to suggest his 2022 back woes still lingered. If available, the 32-year-old former MVP is slated to play first, right field (where his small-sample metrics last year were very bad), and DH; he won’t live up to his contract but perhaps he can rediscover some oomph.

Montero, a 25-year-old righty, has yet to impress in two partial seasons. He hit .243/.290/.426 (76 wRC+) with 11 homers in 307 PA last year, with a 43.5% chase rate and 36.2% strikeout rate undoing already modest quality of contact. How does a .315 xSLG happen in Colorado? Toglia, a 25-year-old switch hitter who was the team’s first round pick in 2019, has been even less productive, including an unfathomable .163/.224/.284 (21 wRC+) line in 152 PA in 2023. Amid this deluge of unproductivity, Goodman, a 24-year-old righty, produced a 48 wRC+ in 77 PA. Somebody please check to see if 50-year-old Todd Helton wants to take a few more cuts on his way to Cooperstown.