2025 Top 100 Prospects Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from overcast Tempe, it’s Top 100 Prospects day. I hope everyone is enjoying this year’s tome. Thanks for coming to the chat. I’m going to do my best to get to as many questions as possible for about an hour…

JB: Besides Sasaki, which T100 guys without MLB experience have the best shot at making Opening Day rosters?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shaw I think is likely. Maybe the Chander, Dollander, Sproat group…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say non-zero chance Kurtz and Freeland. Kurtz I imagine years of control will matter to LVofSAC…

Eric A Longenhagen: One of the Guardians 2B, Brito or Bazzana…

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe one of the ChiSox catchers…

Eric A Longenhagen: Agustin Ramirez

Eric A Longenhagen: Cole Young perhaps

Jesse: What about Colt Emerson isn’t doing it for you? Is he just harder to project out because he’s so young?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a little confused by this since Emerson is on the list, which means I think he projects as a top 15 player at his position. I don’t think it’s plus hit and power *and* a shortstop, I think it’s 2B/3B with some fastball vulnerability, solid regular type guy.

Nick: I’m surprised that Zyhir Hope isn’t in the top 100, can you provide some insight as to why? Fall league performance doesn’t move the needle much?

Eric A Longenhagen: AFL performance definitely moved the needle for me, he’s a talented guy who I’ve got just outside the Top 100. Lemme just paste his report in here. It’ll be pushed live to the board along with other relevant near-misses and picks to click this week…

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope was traded to the Dodgers as part of the Michael Busch deal before 2024 spring training, just six months after he was selected as the Cubs’ 2023 11th-round pick. He then missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury and was limited to just 61 regular season games before he picked up reps in the Arizona Fall League. He slashed .287/.415/.490 in 248 PA at Rancho Cucamonga and then .228/.301/.446 in 103 PA in Arizona. 
Hope’s power is real. He has become tremendously strong since turning pro, he generates ridiculous power for a hitter his age, and he does so in a short mechanical distance. His peak exit velocities are comfortably plus on the big league scale; during Fall League, I watched him hit a 470-foot homer one day and then fight off a 97 mph fastball for an oppo homer the next. Why the apprehension, then? For one, Hope is now physically maxed out. His thighs look like tree trunks and he’s slowed down a good bit already compared to high school. His swing is relatively grooved

Eric A Longenhagen: In short, I think there’s more strikeout risk here than currently shows in his data, which I don’t trust because of the relatively small sample, the Cal League environment, etc.

Trevor: Interested in your thoughts on Owen Caissie, as I noticed he’s not listed on your top 100. Do you think the swing and miss will prevent him from being a premier OF/1B option for Chicago?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll be a good platoon option, probably not someone you want in the lineup vs lefties, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Cubs list in its entirety is here: Chicago Cubs Top 38 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Matt: how close was Gary Gill Hill, Craig Yoho, Marco Raya, & keeler morfe from consideration? Thanks for all this hard work!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yoho and GGH received heavy consideration. GGH will be a Pick to Click, didn’t make it more because of proximity than talent. Yoho is fascinating. Elite changeup guy, funky low arm slot. I think he’ll be a valuable long reliever. Good prospect, just not quite to this level.

Eric A Longenhagen: Morfe, like with GGH, just a little too far away to stuff on the hondo. These rookie-level arms play Russian Roulette with their UCLs for four or five years, I value proximity when it comes to pitchers

Eric A Longenhagen: Raya is more of a solid 45 type

laxtonto: What would be your baseline expectation of Walcott be? What is your 95th percentile view?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can see a detailed “range of outcomes” graph by click the “expand” button below his scouting report. His right tail outcomes are Tatisian

Guest: Any other bluejays close to the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alan Roden. Lemme pull up his report for you

Eric A Longenhagen: Roden has posted god-tier surface-level stats dating back to college, and he’s done so in pro ball while making several significant mechanical adjustments to his swing. In 2023, he was given Craig Counsell’s batting stance and a big leg kick, while his hands were lowered closer to his ear in 2024. The changes have helped Roden, who turned 25 in December, to access more power without trading off much contact…

Eric A Longenhagen: He slashed .293/.391/.475 split between Double- and Triple-A in 2024, running a 93% in-zone contact rate and 83% overall. His measureable power (37% hard-hit rate, 103 mph EV90) was a shade south of the overall big league average, but comfortably below what is typical for a corner outfielder. The short-levered Roden is best at accessing his power against breaking balls that finish middle-in. It’s against these pitches you can really see how much his swing allows him to use the ground to help generate power. Well-executed backfoot breaking balls, however, are Kryptonite to Roden’s bat path; he struggles to scoop those, and swings over the top of them. He’s adept at flattening his bat path to cover high fastballs to drive them the other way, but tends to expand the zone against them a little too often…

Eric A Longenhagen: Roden received heavy consideration for the Top 100 list. Three things shaded his grade down into more of a platoon role. He’s much more chase-prone against fastballs and with two strikes (both relative to his chase in other counts, and to the big league average with two strikes), which suggests that his excellent walk rates from the minors will dip in the big leagues. He’s also a boxy 25-year-old, and I worry that he’ll be subject to athletic decline during his six-year window of team control. Roden is not currently on Toronto’s 40-man, and the Blue Jay’s big league corner outfield situation is very, very crowded. It’s imperative for things to shake out among the Loperfido/Barger/Lukes/Wagner group pairing with George Springer and playing opposite Anthony Santander. It might not be until 2026 that Roden, who will then be 26, gets to entrench himself as a Pavin Smith type contributor.

John B: Who’s the next team prospect list to drop

Eric A Longenhagen: Rays

RoyalBlue: Carter Jensen ahead of Blake Mitchell was surprising to me. Reasons?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re similar. Jensen’s defense is much more polished. Mitchell still can’t block balls in the dirt and chases a ton.

JD: Eric, Walker Jenkins comes in at 17. Do you see this as his peak on your top 100. Is there something he can do to move up? What can he do to improve his prospect value?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’ll probably climb just via graduations of players in front of him. I’d like to see more measurable power in 2025. I buy that he can hit, I think his power is currently closer to average.

Honkus Wagner: having ranked them similarly, what are the biggest differences you see in Nick Kurtz and Bryce Eldridge?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eldridge is younger and has more room for mass. His pro data sample (which I just trust more than college stuff due to pitcher quality) is bigger and more reliable.

Ryan: You seem to be the low man on Jaison Chourio what issues do you see in his profile that have you lower on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jaison Chourio report incoming:

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still apprehensive enough about Chourio to exclude him from the Top 100 because I don’t think his right-handed swing is usable, and there are some indications that he might struggle with better velocity from the left side as he climbs the minors. Chourio still does enough from the left side of the dish to consider him a good prospect. He swings hard for his age, he has terrific breaking ball recognition, he moves the barrel around well from the left side, and he’s shown the occasional ability to flatten his bat path to cover high fastballs. He also tends to drive the ball into the ground a lot of the time, and a large portion of his balls in play against fastballs end up going oppo because Chourio is late to the contact point. He posted a 144 wRC+ as a teenager in full season ball, in large part because Chourio’s plate discipline is so mature…

Eric A Longenhagen: There are some adjustments to be made here if Chourio is going to hit for power in the big leagues, and it’s plausible those adjusments will simply occur as he is forced to deal with better velocity than he saw at Low-A. Those tweaks are going to be important, though, because he’s proabbly going to end up in an outfield corner. Yes, he stole 44 bases in 2024, but Chourio is an average runner whose feel for playing defense is only fair. It’s more likely he ends up in right field than center. Again, he’s a good prospect and his metrics are great. I consider him to have a corner platoon floor with the upside of a true everyday guy if the power actualizes in a more obvious way.

John: how close was Franklin arias to the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not especially close. His trackman data is pretty good, but I thought he was just okay during my in-person look last May, and during film study during work on the list. You could consider him a pick to click. Were he to be included he would have stacked around Francisca, whose contact ability I buy as being pretty special.

EV: How far is B Guerrero from 2025 top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brailer Guerrero, Rays OF. I like him, corner guy in the FCL who has barely played due to injury. I just want to feel more solid about the guys toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum than I currently do about Brailer. He’s incredibly strong, I think his swing is kinda funky and I wanna see it work against full season pitching.

Envious: It’s pretty wild that the Dodgers have the best team, and also no one has more top 100 guys than them too.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Alex Freeland development is absolute nuts, can’t say I’ve seen anything like that before.

Do you have any Grey Papelbon?: What would need to happen  for Eduardo Quintero to make it back to the Top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Better CF defense

Ryan: Noticed that Jordan Lawlar dropped from a 60 FV in your Diamondbacks prospect list to a 55 in the top 100, is that just a general re-assessment of him against the broader prospect class or something more specific?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both. The peak exit velos are pretty bleh, and have been for a couple of years. Once I stacked everyone (i’ll do a data table dump on the site this week I think so you can see some relevant data points for everyone) it felt hard to keep him in that 60 group. Conversely, Crisantes moved up on their list for the same reasons.

Ken: How far off from the Top 100 was Denzel Clarke? After shaking off the rust, he hit .299/.366/.487 from May 11 to the end of the season.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not far, as you can see on the A’s list, he’s a 45+ FV, that’s juuuust behind this top 100 group.

Eric A Longenhagen: Athletics Top 42 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Justin: If we strip defense out of the valuation equation, who are some guys who are outside of, say, the top 30, you you could see turning into real offensive mashers?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Too Many Mooks: Who on this list do you most feel like you are the high guy on? Low guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m so high on Alfredo Duno that I’m starting to hallucinate

Tiger Fan: Super excited to see so many Tigers on your t100 this morning. What’re the odds of a Rainer, Lee or Hamm popping on by Midseason? They seem like the best of the rest on the farm

Eric A Longenhagen: Rainer is the best of that group. Tigers list is coming in the near future. I get why you might really like Hamm and his monster curveball. More of a 45 for me, still a good player. Lee I think is a 350 PA role player type.

cake: Was Hurston Waldrep slip down a half grade because of command concerns/relief risk?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, and fastball playability.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still good!

Jamey: Quinn Mathews as the top Cardinals prospect was a minor surprise. As was that he’s projected as arriving this season.

Eric A Longenhagen: Guy has built a 140 inning workload, he’s ready. Compare that to Tink.

Neil Mills: What separates Angel Genao most from the rest of the Guardians never ending line of switch hitting infielders?

Eric A Longenhagen: Compared to Bazzana it’s the defense. Athleticism and projectability are also factors. You can compare their tool grades and see where the deltas are: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Victoria: Are you all the way out on Mo Baller?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, good role player, his full report is here: Chicago Cubs Top 38 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Ben J: Can Moises Chace be a midseason top 5 pitching prospect? Can he sustain a lower walk rate (subtracting a few blow up starts) and be an impact starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably a little aggressive, but if he suddenly has a plus secondary pitch this spring then all bets are off.

Josue Briceno: Apparently, since his knee injury last season, Briceño has worked exclusively at 1B and DH. If he does goes that direction (1B/DH), does that change your evaluation of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has but that’s because of the injury, not his skill. He’s a good defensive catcher.

Guest: Is it better to prioritize contact ability or power for prospects? I can see arguments for both (for example, power is more valuable but easier to develop)

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re on it. It’s why Boston took Campbell and Durran, right?

Qane: Really fascinating list. Any arms on this list who are flying a bit under the radar (thinking of a Jared Jones last year) who you see making a significant contribution in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Damn, was Jones under the radar? That guy has been famous since high school. I guess Curet? Messick? Here’s who I have a 2025 ETA on: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Yuniesky Betancourt: What do you need to see from Termarr Johnson this year for him to get back into the 50 FV tier?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still has good raw power for a MIF, really wanna see him tap into it in games (idc if he K’s a bunch, just please do something) and it’d be nice if he got better on defense.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: First of all, thank you for another year of thoughtful analysis (and welcome to David Gerth).

Two O’s who missed the cut: Brandon Young and EBJ? How did you revise your evaluation of Young (previously 50 FV)? More game tape? More data? Comparison against the rest of the class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bradfield’s CF defense isn’t so good as to tip him into the 50 tier without there being power on offense. He’s a 45, good player. Young I agonized over. Still think his fastball is plus even though it sits 92. Curveball is average, rest of the repertoire played a little below. He’s also 26 and they like *barely* stretched him out, innings wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: Brandon Young – Pitching Game Logs | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Again, good player. It’s razor thin stuff like this that pushes a guy like Curet in and a guy like Young out.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Was surprised to see no Braden Montgomery on the 100.  Too much uncertainty regarding injury recovery, or something else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, some hit tool questions, too. Again, awesome prospect, let’s see him hit pro pitching.

Eric A Longenhagen: Report: Montgomery comes from a family of multiple Division-I athletes. He was among the most prominent of the 2021 high schoolers to go to school. He spent two seasons at Stanford, where Montgomery played both ways and showed meaningful bat-to-ball improvement as a sophomore after a strikeout-prone freshman year. He transferred to A&M and was the most talented player on their College World Series runner-up squad; he suffered a fractured right ankle on a slide into home during the postseason. Montgomery slashed .317/.428/.646 throughout his entire college career, with 20% K% as a junior.

Eric A Longenhagen: A super physical 6-foot-2 switch-hitter, Montgomery has monster bat speed from the left side. He has a crouched leg kick, his hands load at a conservative depth, and his hips absolutely explode though contact and help ignite a big finish in the dirt behind him. His lefty swing generates power to all fields, and he has some ability to alter his upper body’s posture during his swing in order to clear out the top of the zone, something that Montgomery only seemed to develop during his time at A&M. His righty swing is more generic; he has a low-ball tendency from that side and his cut isn’t especially dynamic. He’s vulnerable to changeups as a lefty, and up-and-away fastballs and backfoot breakers as a righty.

Eric A Longenhagen: Montgomery has a huge arm in right field, was up to 97 as a freshman reliever (his stuff was down during his sophomore year at Stanford and he didn’t really pitch at A&M), and has the speed to give center field a try in pro ball. Some of the changes he made at A&M have improved the strikeout issues that were once caused by his lever length. This is a switch-hitter who was also a two-way player until 2023, and Montgomery’s performance is even more exciting given that context. Above-average plate discipline and a swing geared to get to his power will help Montgomery overcome what are likely to be elevated strikeout totals. He has the ceiling of a power-hitting right field cleanup hitter.

Eleazar: Eric, where do you see Lazaro Montes? He more than held his own at advanced A as a 19 year old. Yes, the strikeouts were too high but he was almost three and a half years below the average age there. And with reports that his athleticism (like Julio Rodriguez before him) is much better than initially advertised, seems like an exciting prospect, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s okay. Mariners fans need to realize what Modesto and Everett do to offensive numbers. Here are some park independent numbers for Laz compared to the average MLB corner OF: (gimme a sec por favor)

Eric A Longenhagen:

Harry Ford: My eyebrows raised at his omission from this years list. Why the drop? How far out of the top 100 does he land now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Harry’s report:

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of Ford’s dip in surface level production in 2024 (he slashed .249/.377/.367 after slugging at least .430 at each previous level) can be attributed to the change in hitting environment from Seattle’s low-level affiliates (which inflate offense) to Double-A Arkansas (which suppresses it), but some of it appears to be at least a temporary regression in his physical tools. Ford has always had a relatively grooved swing and struggled to get on top of elevated fastballs, but especially late in 2024, his bat speed looked like it had backed up quite a bit. He’s now had two consecutive seasons in which his underlying power data (his peak exit velos and hard-hit rate) has been a tad shy of the big league average. It’s starting to look like Ford’s plate discipline will be his only plus offensive trait, which at the very least caps his ceiling and arguably puts him at risk of busting if his hit tool bottoms out.

Eric A Longenhagen: The good news is that Ford still does a lot of good stuff on defense and adds value on the bases with his speed. There seemed to be some experimentation happening with his throwing toward the end of the season. He’d more often cut it loose from his knees, and his 2024 caught stealing rate of 19% is worse than what one would hope for a guy with Ford’s arm strength, but visually he looked fine. He still popped sub-1.9 a lot of the time, and he’s a special athlete who’ll do some nutty stuff to prevent wild pitches. He’s still not the best receiver and pitch framer, but Ford does enough other stuff at a very high level to be an above-average catcher. The presence of Cal Raleigh at the big league level would make it tough for any catching prospect to break through in Seattle, so Ford played eight games in left field last year. He looked pretty good out there given his relative inexperience. Readers might recall that there were scouts who though teenage Ford, who stole 35 bases in 44 attempts in 2024, had the speed

Eric A Longenhagen: …had the speed to be developed in center field, but with Julio Rodríguez patrolling the middle pasture, it probably isn’t necessary for the M’s to try him there. Overall, Ford has the ability of a second-division primary catcher. He’s a good enough defender to play regularly, but he probably won’t hit enough to be considered a top 15-ish player at his position. On the Mariners, he’s more likely a really special and fun role player who serves as a part-time catcher and left fielder.

Ken: How did doing the audit of the 2018 list impact your thinking about any prospects for this year’s list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitcher proximity

Refugee: Would FanGraphs ever consider publishing this work (i.e., top 100, org lists) a la BA prospect handbook?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it. I’m not sure they make book spines big enough for the amount of writing all 30 teams require.

Aldo Rayne: What do you see as the differences between Chandler Simpson and Enrique Bradfield, Jr. that pushed Simpson ahead for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simpson it’s elite contact and speed, Bradfield is more 70 on both accounts, and I’m projecting on Simpson’s defense because of how new the position is for him.

George: I audibly gasped at the Susana ranking. Would you confidence in him panning out be markedly different on a different team? Seems like that Nats have taken steps forward in their pitching dev the last couple of years and they are probably fighting an unfair reputation, but what’s your opinion on their ability to max him out?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta see this guy’s slider.

Eric A Longenhagen: The dev thing is important, but factoring dev into these rankings is not really feasible because the personnel doing it change so often.

I miss Carson: Who would you guess as some of “Carson’s guys” or “fringe five” types after posting this years list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alan Roden, Aidan Smith, Jojo Ingrassia, Matt Wilkinson, Sal Stewart. Mwah, love you buddy.

sliptoad: As a big Melton (Astros org) fan, what changed in your evaluation of him to drop him from the top 100

Eric A Longenhagen: Not a CF defense fit, inside outed a ton of fastballs, worry he’ll ge crushed by lefties. Plaoon guy, still good.

Mr. Burrito: Another question: Your list runs 100-ish players, and I’ve seen other lists that go a bit longer. If you were in a front office how many minor league players would you project in this kind of detail?

Eric A Longenhagen: As many as they’d let me.

Varitek: At the end of the year, which non 60s do you see being able to climb into the 60 fv tier? Any you believe are likely?

Eric A Longenhagen: Miller, Jenkins, Duno, the MIFs near and including Bazzana, Rosario, any of the Mariners toolsheds toward the back of the list

tbone26: question about arjun nimmala’s listings; he clocked in at around 170 pounds on draft day and doesn’t look meaningfully bigger, is the 215-pound listing accurate to recent data or is it partially projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s my eyeball assessment. There’s no way that guy is 170 pounds. I’m 5-11, 185 and you can see two of my abs

Nick: No critique but some interesting inclusions/omissions. I appreciate there is less group think here.

Curet in the Top 100 was as surprise; what about his profile has you more bullish than others?

On the flipside Ballesteros is omitted from the list despite being top 50 in many other places – is the defensive home the worry here? something else?

Eric A Longenhagen: I cannot speak for the others, I did not consult their work when compiling my list, this is not a repackaging. Ballesteros’ report is on the site and pretty clear.

Aldo Rayne: Roden close but not Yesavage?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yesavage was close too

Pud Gavin: Noticed no Griffin or Rainer. Just waiting to see some actual game reps?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep

It’s in the CARDS: Regarding your charts of probable FV outcomes, could you provide examples about what actually happens to players who fall short or leap forward from your prediction? I imagine injuries are one example of poor/bust outcomes, and unlocking better tools through development could explain better ones. I’m just looking for non-obvious, but real-life (as opposed to statistical/probabilistic) reasons why pro athletes foil expectations.

Eric A Longenhagen: You nailed the two big ones. Player makeup is important, scouting-to-dev cohesion is important, biomechanical analysis and proactive intervention, good people on he dev side who communicate with each other and have common objective for their players… lots of niy gritty subjective stuff. The way bodies develop in unexpected ways…

Ray From Tampa: Have you phased out Braden Taylor, you were fairly positive on him in the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s okay. Defense, swing geared for crazy lift. 70% contact guy without big raw juice.

Eric A Longenhagen: just not a top 100 guy

Kathy: Are Waldrep and Iriarte relievers now? You still seemed relatively bullish on Waldrep as of last July. Good walk rate at AA. What happened?

Eric A Longenhagen: Iriarte I still think should start. His velo was down last year.

Art Fuldoger: You mention a possibility of Freeland breaking camp? Super UT or and actual everyday player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Every day guy, might be the best SS defender in camp depending on how Hyeseong looks.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor: Just want to say thanks for all the work, and fwiw I appreciate the way the schedule of team list releases gives us fresh updated intel on early season movers for the later lists.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks so much, doing it on my own this year was quite the lift.

Erik Neander: How close was Theo Gillen to making the list? What can he do to improve his prospect value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Find a defensive fit on the middle of the diamond.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love his bat, stuffed him pre-draft

Rob: How close was Jackson Ferris from making the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s just outside of it but was a confident exclusion. Lemme paste his report for yall

Eric A Longenhagen: Signed for $3 million as a second rounder in 2022, Ferris didn’t pitch at an affiliate after the draft and was handled pretty conservatively during his pro debut, as he made 18 starts but only pitched 56 strikeout- and walk-heavy innings. He was traded to Los Angeles during the offseason as part of the Michael Busch swap with the Cubs and had a more stable 2024, as Ferris worked 126.2 innings, posted a 3.20 ERA, and reached Double-A toward the end of the year (where his strikeouts and walks regressed). 
Ferris has a powerful lower half, bending deep into his blocking leg. The Dodgers seem to have altered the direction of Ferris’ stride a little bit, and he now appears more closed off. Ferris will touch 96 but tends to sit 92-94. His fastball generated an average rate of chase and miss in 2024, as did his most-used secondary pitch, a slider in the 83-86 mph range. Ferris can also lob in a slow, mid-70s curveball, and at times his changeup has bat-missing action, but that pitch has come along more slowly than

Eric A Longenhagen: than hoped when he was drafted and is still below average, as is his command. He lacks a plus pitch right now and, at a pot-bellied age 21, isn’t obviously projectable. He looks like a fair no. 4/5 starter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, Dodgers dev…

Eric A Longenhagen: but again, the exercise is about scouting and not predicting. It’d be weird to slide a guy just because the Dodgers traded him to a team that has struggled with dev, right?

Kathy: Will Chen-Wei Lin be a 45+ at next list publication?

Eric A Longenhagen: In that area, yeah. He’s nasty, I love his upside.

Maddoning: Have you ever ranked a prospect with a 70+ hit tool, and little else?  Maybe I’m describing Willans Astudillo?

Eric A Longenhagen: lol you are. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Jonathan: Was there a tiny part of you that wanted to rank Wilcott 1st?  If Sasaki were the 2023 version it would be a no-brainer, but after Roki’s 2024 I’m just a little unsure.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you. 2023 Roki would have been a 70.

Eric A Longenhagen: And yes on sea bass

Eric A Longenhagen: I love him

Esix Snead: I have a weird fascination with Yordany de los Santos.  He has such tantalizing skills but hasn’t been able to put it together past R-ball.  Anything going on under the hood that we should be aware of?  A guy to watch for next year or just a flash in the international pan like Shalin Polanco?

Eric A Longenhagen: Close to average power now with big projection, really, really aggressive hitter with terrifying chase.

Lord Thunder: What are timelines for Do Yeong KIm and Shunpeita Yamashita possibly coming stateside?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Shun’s timeline to satisfy the CBA’s age/experience requirement is post-2027, and Kim’s is post-2029. I don’t know if what Roki did this offseason will make others want to matriculate early.

Eric A Longenhagen: For new folks, reports on those guys are here, click the clipboard. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

pedro: Do you do a “recent graduates” column that covers guys that just barely lost their rookie eligibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Tim Curry voice) nYesssss. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Phil: Any additional comments on the ETAs of R Anthony and K Campbell? The guys at my local bar in Somerville think 2025, you have 2026.

Eric A Longenhagen: Late 2025 with 2026 rookie eligibility exhaustion seems totally feasible. the big league outfield is pretty crowded right now. tell ya mutha hai fuh me uhkay?

Jack: Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. Which of these lottery ticket arms are you the highest on, and why? Humberto Cruz, Keyner Benitez, Jose Paulino, Johnny King, Esteban Mejia, Dalvison Reyes, Juan Valera, or Sheng-Ein Lin?

Eric A Longenhagen: nom nom nom nom nom great question…

Eric A Longenhagen: Ugh, i have to pick ONE?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cruz (just absolutely looks the part mechanically, bodily, quality strikes) and then Kenyer (supreme athlete, monster changeup)

Matt: How close is Konnor Griffin to cracking the list?

Jv30: Can Tyson Lewis be a top 100 guy by mid season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Both these fellas are right there, the leap from HS pitching to pro pitching is huge and in most cases I wanna see them do it before they rank this high. There are so many proven players at double and triple a who will just be in the big leagues soon, and i feel it’s prudent to prioritize those guys rather than recently drafted players

Skip: Zebby Matthews, not a rookie-on the roster too long, but only 37.2 IP. Would he fit anywhere on your list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, close to the middle, in there with Warren and Bloss

SG: Were Emil Morales and Joendry Vargas near your top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, similar to the high-variance high schoolers, lots of hit tool risk with both those guys. For example, Morales had a sub-70% contact rate in the DSL.

Brady House: House is off of basically all top 100 lists now. Too much risk with the hit tool? His defense gives me hope that his value wouldn’t totally tank even if he’s a league average hitter

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re on it. The K’s are coming from a combination of both chase and plate coverage issues. I love the defense, too, he just swings inside sooooo many slider. Bryan Ramos, too. He can pick it.

Telemachus: What kept Cooper Pratt off of your Top 100 list? Is he a 50FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked pretty bad on defense upon revisitation, doesn’t currently have the power to support a 3B fit. Still a good prospect.

Mark: Chayce McDermott being on the list when he’s age 26 and his probability is ~40% bust is interesting to me. His top 100 capsule didn’t mention this and I’m wondering: Do you have any thoughts on whether he could be destined for the bullpen, and if so, could he be a late inning guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I upped his bust % last night because of the shoulder thing. If you look at past lists, basically any of these pitchers has a high chance of busting just because of their job. There’s a Rodney Dangerfield joke in there somewhere but I’m too gassed to make it.

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like Chayce’s stuff, and think he

Eric A Longenhagen: see, i hit the enter key rather than the apostrophe, i’m wearing out

Eric A Longenhagen: Def an impact reliever for me if he cant start

Marlins Man: Is Andrew Salas or PJ Morlando on this list next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Morlando is a good pick to click

Ray from Tampa: Aidan Smith, fantasy darling or potential everyday player?

Eric A Longenhagen: The analytics folks seem higher on him. I think his swing is sketchy and that he’s a corner fit. Definitely a prospect, but I think in his case there’s some overvaluing of his ability to pull the ball.

Charles Atwater: Just popping in to say that more than the work itself (which I know is quite an accomplishment), I am most excited to hear you on EW this week. The way you discuss baseball makes me like baseball more, and I am by no means a prospect guy. It’s just the effervescence in your discussion. 80-grade podcast guest.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you very much, and thank you to the couple hundred of you who have breezed by today. I’m a little shy of two hours of chatting and am going to call it. Please read everyone’s prospect stuff, I am so appreciative that I get to do Shark Week, but baseball, for work. Please consider an ad-free sub to our site, it’s about a dollar per week, and we’re constantly adding new features (maybe put a college player’s name in the search bar and see what happens)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be on Effectively Wild this week to talk more about this stuff, and you’ll get a Picks to Click and Limbo article this week, as well as an extra surprise or two.

Eric A Longenhagen: bye bye