Farm Director Justin Toole Weighs In On Seattle’s Hitter-Heavy System

The Seattle Mariners currently have one of baseball’s best farm systems, and its strength differs markedly from that of the big league roster. Pitching-rich at the major league level, it’s Mariners position player prospects who populate the top tier of our rankings. That’s welcome news — at least on paper — for a Seattle team that has recently excelled at keeping runs off the board, but has too often struggled to score.
Justin Toole is front and center in the organization’s quest to graduate productive bats into the parent club’s lineup. Brought on as director of player development following the 2022 season, the 38-year-old Council Bluffs, Iowa native has both the background and the acumen to help make that happen. Prior to coming to Seattle, Toole played seven professional seasons, then served four years as a minor league hitting coach, followed by three as a major league hitting analyst. All of his pre-Mariners experience came with Cleveland.
Toole discussed several of the system’s most promising prospects prior to heading to Arizona for the start of spring training.
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David Laurila: What is the current strength of the system?
Justin Toole: “From a player development standpoint, I think the strength is the individuality with how we handle our players. When we get people into our system, we figure out their strengths, we figure out their weaknesses, we help them understand their identity. We work with our players to get a feel for where they think they are, and where they want to go.
“Our group has done an unbelievable job of creating good player plans that are clear, that are are easy to follow. They’re simple. I think that’s kind of been the strength of our player development group. Of course, any good player development group is going to be good because of the scouting group. They bring in good players, players that fit what we want to do, and who we want to be.”
Laurila: The organization has a good reputation for developing pitchers, but not so much for developing hitters. Does the challenging environment at T-Mobile Park impact the hitting development program?
Toole: “Any time you’re looking at the big picture of what’s going on at the major league level, you ultimately want to create players that succeed in that environment. From a player development standpoint, CJ Gillman, Tyger Peterson, and Ed Paparella — our minor league hitting leadership group — focus on scoring runs. We look at it as, ‘We’re on offense.’ We talk a lot about hitting. We talk about the swing. We talk about the plans and approaches. But we also talk about the baserunning. We talk about scoring runs. I think that’s something our group has done a great job of embodying.
“Ultimately, at the major league level, regardless of the park you’re playing in, you’re trying to score runs. That’s what we’re trying to do. We’re trying to develop players that score runs. As you mentioned, we’ve got a lot of really young, talented position players. It’s a lot of fun to see them run with those ideas and build off of each other.”
Laurila: You’ve been with the Mariners for a little over two years. Have there been any notable tweaks to the hitting development program over that time?
Toole: “The biggest thing is trying to maximize each player. From a player development standpoint, each player is going to be different. In our system, you look at guys like Colt Emerson and Cole Young; they’re going to be different types of players than a Lazaro Montes. That’s the beauty in our group, finding the individual things that make each guy go, and then really trying to bring those strengths to the forefront while also continuing to develop the other parts of their game. So I don’t think there is one specific thing of we’re trying to develop this, or we’re trying to develop that. We’re trying to develop good baseball players that compete, and from an offensive standpoint, help us score runs.”
Laurila: Emerson and Young are the system’s most prominent prospects. I don’t know if there is much you can say about either that isn’t already well known.
Toole: “You know, Cole is the steady Eddie, the slow heartbeat. That’s often what gets written about him. He’s probably the guy in our system where what you see is what you get. You know what to expect each time you go watch him play. That’s been pretty well documented. But the other part of it is the drive, the desire to get better, the want to win, the want to compete.
“With Colt, it’s the leadership. People gravitate towards him, but there’s also what he’s able to do on the field. Being a young player and being able to do what he did in the Fall League really shows his ability, not only as a leader and as a teammate, but also as a player. It’s the whole package.”
Laurila: Young and Michael Arroyo both profile as second basemen. How do they compare?
Toole: “With Arroyo, you’re going to see a little bit more power; there’s a little bit more strength within the swing. With Cole, you’re going to see a little bit more of the contact and hitability. They do a lot of the same things, but in different ways. We’re trying to bring out [the best] in a guy like Arroyo, and a guy like Cole, but we’re not trying to make them the same. We’re allowing them to be who they are, and have their games fit who they are.
“There are a lot of similarities, obviously, with them being middle infield types. But again, they do things a little bit differently. That said, I think Michael’s speed will probably surprise you, and I think Cole’s power at times will surprise you. Those aren’t necessarily the things that will jump out, but they’re great competitors that find a way to move the ball around the park.”
Laurila: You mentioned Lazaro Montes. His carrying tool is plus power from the left side. How does he compare to Nolan Jones at the same age?
Toole: “That’s awesome. I was actually a minor league hitting coach of Nolan’s.”
Laurila: Hence my question…
Toole: “Perfect. So, Nolan is a little bit more goes-about-his-business, but they’re very similar in terms of the lankiness within their swings. I think the most exciting thing about Laz is the [developmental strides] that he’s made. Coming over from the D.R. and being able to cut down on the swing-and-miss, and the chase, and how he’s been able to handle left-handed pitching… a lot of that stuff is really exciting.
“There are a lot of similarities in terms of projectability, but there are also differences. There’s a natural power to Laz, whereas I think Nolan had to work for the power a little bit more. Ultimately, it developed more at the major league level when he got to Colorado and got the opportunities there. But yeah, that’s a very interesting comp.”
Laurila: Yandy Díaz was a teammate in your final year as a player. Is there anybody in the system who comps to him in terms of skill set and could potentially go on to have a similar career?
Toole: “Yeah, I think if you look at the Emersons, the Youngs, the Arroyos, Jonny Farmelo, Felnin Celesten — types that put the bat on the ball — that was the thing Yandy loved to do. He loved to put the ball in play. He loved to hit the ball the other way. Obviously, he’s developed some power as he’s gotten into his major league career.
“I think that’s what you ultimately look at, the guys that put the bat on the ball. Ben Williamson is another guy we have that makes a lot of contact. He knows where the barrel is. Those are the types of guys that excite you in terms of their development path, because the power piece usually comes as guys develop, as they learn their bodies, learn their approaches, learn how to manipulate the barrel. With our group, we’re continuing to stress the importance of being able to drive the ball, hit the ball hard. You see a lot of the contact ability that Yandy showed when he was in the minor leagues, and from there the power will come.”
Laurila: Farmelo has plus speed. What else does he bring to the table?
Toole: “Great makeup. Great mentality. He’s a competitor. Obviously went through the knee injury last year. We’re planning on him being back early, or middle of the season. It’s not something we’re going to rush. We’ll let his body — let him — tell us when he’s ready to go.
“You’re looking at a guy that’s got game-changing speed on the bases, game-changing speed to play defense in the outfield, and some pretty good bat-to-ball skills. Not only was he a guy we were really excited about out of the draft, he was exceeding our expectations before the injury.”
Laurila: Celesten is a shortstop, correct?
Toole: “Yes. He’s got good actions, good footwork, a good arm. I think he’s going to have the ability to stay there. Obviously, he’s young, and with young players you’re always trying to project; you never know exactly where things are going to go. But there’s a lot to like. He’s one of my favorite guys to watch fielding a groundball. It’s natural instincts. Whether it’s in the field, in the box, or around the bases, he moves like a baseball player. That’s something you see with a lot of really good infielders. He’s fluid and smooth. He picks the right hops. It’s a lot of fun to watch.”
Laurila: Harry Ford is known for being extremely athletic. How does the organization view him going forward?
Toole: “I think we see him as catcher. Obviously, we introduced him to some outfield last year, but a lot of that is trying to figure out, ‘Hey, he’s super athletic, so what does that athleticism look like when you take him out from behind home plate?’ But again, we see him as a catcher. We see him as a guy that can play that position in the big leagues.
“When you have guys like that, who are super athletic, you don’t want them to lose the athleticism. He’s still really young. He’s still developing and learning a lot when it comes to the position, but we’re obviously really excited about his future. But I think you nailed it when you said that when you think of Harry Ford, you think of the athleticism.”
Laurila: Cal Raleigh obviously has the position locked down right now. Is catching at all similar to pitching in that it’s impossible to have too much of it?
Toole: “I mean, you want to get as many good players as you can. We’re always trying, whether it’s in the draft or international signings, to bring in good players. Once they’re here, we’re going to continue to try to help them get better. You can never have too many good players, and Harry is definitely one of those.”
Laurila: We should at least touch on a few of the young arms. Ryan Sloan has the highest ceiling in the system among pitchers, true or false?
Toole: “True. Just looking at the age, the pedigree, the strike-throwing and the velo. He’s been down in Arizona the last few weeks getting ready for spring training, and the things you saw coming out of the draft that you hoped would be there are there. And along with his physical abilities, there has been his attention to detail. His routines, the questions he’s been asking, the relationships he’s been building with our development group. They’ve been awesome. There’s definitely a lot of excitement with where he’s at, but there is also the understanding that this will be his first year of pro ball. He’s yet to throw a pitch for us. But the answer is yes, for those reasons.”
Laurila: The other arm I really need to ask you about is Jurrangelo Cijntje. Being a switch-pitcher who was born in the Netherlands, and drafted in the first round, he’s a bit of a unicorn.
Toole: “Talking about him going into the draft, and the possibility of him being in our system, had a lot of our people excited. I think you just let him do his thing. He’ll naturally kind of tell us what direction, or what path, makes sense. We’re going to go into the season with him throwing with both arms. Exactly what that looks like, we’re still trying to figure out. We’ll see how things go. How his body reacts, where he’s at, and what he thinks is best, will all be a piece of that puzzle.
“He’s also been down in Arizona with our group, and the velos and the stuff that he’s shown early on are definitely super exciting. So, a fun puzzle to put together as we go. The cool part with that is there are so many avenues where he can be a successful and impactful pitcher in our organization — hopefully with our major league group.”
Laurila: Any final thoughts?
Toole: “There is so much information out there. A lot of everything is out there, and I think the key, and the magic, and kind the whole piece of the puzzle, is what you do with the information. The people-and-process part is huge for what we do as a group.”
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
This is admittedly not the best place to do it but I really feel like the Mariners don’t get enough scorn and ridicule for being a true poverty franchise. Between the 54% stuff, the Julio-can’t-speak-english rotary club debacle, the recently-snapped 20-year playoff drought, the blown 10 game division lead last year, and the outright refusal to supplement the pithcing staff with a competitive lineup, this is truly one of the worst-run and loseriest franchises in professional sports. This has not been a serious franchise for almost a quarter-century. Anybody who picks them for the playoffs any year should have their head examined.
Please seek to provide insight, not tired takes.
I don’t think it’s tired and I don’t think it’s even really a take. There is a mountain of on and off field evidence to show that Seattle is one of the most embarrassing franchises in professional sports. Their fans deserve better. The players deserve better. The reality is that this has not been a serious team since the first GWB administration.
The money spending for sure but the 54% stuff was misconstrued I think
Doesn’t matter if it was misconstrued or needs context, it’s a dumb target. We watched Piniella beat 54% like 3 seasons in a row after 2001 and still miss the playoffs because they wouldn’t spend some extra money to improve the team. He walked away and nobody blames him.
The playoffs are the target. Lou taught us that.
Lou coached only 1 season for the Ms after 2001 — 2002 when the team won 57% of its games (93-69) and finished 10 games back of the 103 win As (and behind the Angels as well). He then demanded a trade to Tampa where he never finished with a winning team. Ironically he took a 85 win Cubs club to the playoffs as they played in the wretched NL Central (and notably, that year no NL team won more than 90 games).
Citations needed.
Mariners have won the 8th most games in MLB since the pandemic.
Pretty easy to say that all of WAS. COL, OAK, PIT, CHW, MIA. LAA, CHC, CIN, STL, and TOR have been worse run and more loser-ish with fewer regular season and postseason wins over that time. That’s over a third of the league.
SEA even has twenty six more regular season wins and two more postseason wins than the much hyped BAL over the last four years.
And that’s their high-water mark of the past 20 years. Four years of wild-card contention with a max season win total of 90 games, one playoff appearance with two (admittedly cool) playoff wins, and the “8th most wins since the pandemic”.
I don’t think that’s very good and that’s kind of what I’m trying to say — the org seems content with this “success” being the high water point of the “window”.
Also, if you just expand the timeframe a few years, WAS, CHC, and STL have world series championships, and LAA and TOR have at least tried.
That leaves SEA in the unserious portion of the league with COL, OAK, PIT, CHW, MIA, and CIN, which is where I think they belong in the last 20-ish years of baseball history. Baltimore, as you pointed out, belongs there too.
Keep digging, Rick.
LOL…right? That is the sustainable winning Dipoto talked about? Who needs a WS appearance!
Sir, this is a Wendy’s
It always shocks me that even on Fangraphs people don’t take into account park effects. By ERA- over the last 3 years, Seattle is 9th in MLB. By wRC+, they’re… also 9th. They have the same away OPS as the Phillies over the past 3 years and nearly the same away FIP as Toronto. They have a very good rotation, but the main explanation for constantly having a low ERA and low OPS team is T Mobile Park.
Truth!
2024 M’s pitchers sub 3 ERA at home….over 4 ERA on the road.
I was going to say this. It’s a little bit amazing to me that every baseball fan knows that Coors is an extreme offense environment and that they should take those numbers with a grain of salt, but the idea that Safeco is nearly as extreme a pitcher’s park as Coors is a hitters’ park just doesn’t seem to sink in.
It’s a more extreme pitcher’s park than Coors is a hitters’ park.
Why do you say that? I’m open to being persuaded. 3 year Statcast park factor is 112 for Coors and 91 for
SafecoT-mobile.I do see that if you use the single year park factors for 2024 only, Tmobile is at 89 and Coors is at 110.
Yeah, I was looking at the 1-year PF showing T-Mobile suppressed offense by 11% while Coors only inflates it by 10%.
But you’re right, the 3-year look swings the other way. I think it’s safe to say they’re similarly extreme.
I agree with that. It sure doesn’t seem like most fans perceive them that way, though.
Possibly because it suppresses HR less than other XBH and a dramatic change in dingers is the easiest way for people to appreciate park factors.
Possibly. Coors itself is only 8th highest for HR factor these days (trailing GABP, Dodgers, Yankees, Texas, Philly, Milwaukee and Anaheim), but the perception lingers.
This is true according to statcast
https://www.mlb.com/news/seattle-t-mobile-park-tough-hitters-park-analysis
It is just a really tough park to hit. So it makes the numbers as you can explain seem worse than they really are, when the offense is actually solid. I agree I would still like to see another bat or two, but you also have to convince people to sign in free agency. And I could see a lot of bats just not wanting to play there. Trading for on the other hand…
Even the A’s are projected to have a better than 1 in 10 chance to make it, but that’s besides the point. This isn’t the right place to do it, and the Mariners have definitely gotten a lot of “wtf?” with regard to their lack of engagement this offseason, imo (the ridicule over Santana taking less money to go to CLE, for example).
But it’s not crazy to think that Julio could have a season where his first half resembles his second half more than, well, me, and the Rangers/Astros have plenty of question marks of their own (the Astros traded away their best player and might play Yankee-playoff-level defense all season; the Rangers are quite literally made of Marcus Semien and glass). And the Mariners’ run prevention is no joke (and a product of the same org that frustrates, which makes overall pronouncements of awfulness much harder to stick).
They are certainly one of the most *frustrating* franchises, to be sure, and wasting Felix and Ichiro’s primes sucked (I lived there 2003-2010; it was a BAD time to be a sports fan in Seattle in between Shaun Alexander and Marshawn Lynch; heck, we lost an NBA team!), but you can’t compare this to PIT wasting decades, getting Skenes, and then…doing nothing or MIA failing to produce a hitter since a young (then-)Mike Stanton fifteen years ago.
It’s not even as bad as a much better analog: Colorado. They also play in an extreme stadium, have generated/wasted the primes of perennial AS/HoFers, and occasionally splurge (but never enough to make the initial outlay make sense). The Rockies only have two winning records since 2010; say what you want about the Mariners, but you rarely know they’re out of contention by the end of April.
They also produced Yelich and Ozuna. But I get the point.
You really have to make a stronger case to advance the argument “truly one of the worst-run and loseriest franchises in professional sports” or that the “most embarrassing” as you say below. Most of the items you list are legitimate criticisms but they ignore (a) the number of truly wretched teams that are doing nothing (or less, see the As) or are so poorly managed (PIT, CWS, COL, ANA to name a few); and (b) the very good things the team has done (developed a top SP staff with controllable talent; has top or near top farm system; excellent park with great day of game experience). The fact you pivoted away from “worst” to “one of the unserious” is telling. As far as “never trying,” in the last 23 years you mention, they ran a top 10 OD payroll from 2002 to 2005 and 2007 to 2010, and inside top 13 from 2015 to 2019 when they did their “step back.” That’s 13 of 23 years.
In the last 21 years of Major League Baseball, the Seattle Mariners have won two (wild card round) playoff games, have two 90-win seasons, and have not won more than 90 games in any single season.
That is the fewest amount of playoff wins out of all teams, second-fewest number of 90-win seasons out of all teams (marlins), and second-fewest max season wins out of all teams (marlins again).
I think that’s prima-facie embarrassing, poorly-run, and losery, before you even consider the extrinsic evidence of the 54% comments or the rotary club speech.
OP is overstating the case a bit but each of the four “truly wretched” teams you listed has more playoff appearances this century than the Ms do.
I think it’s fair to say there are several things this front office does well and equally fair to say that the past three offseasons have exposed an enormous, some would say disqualifying weakness: filling out a roster by adding productive players around the team’s established core.
Over the past two offseasons the team acquired 9 different hitters and only two of them (Luke Raley and Teoscar Hernandez) have performed comfortably above replacement level.
The other 7 (Wong, Pollock, La Stella, Garver, Polanco, Haniger, and Urias) have combined for -2 fWAR while wearing a Mariners uniform, at a combined cost of roughly $64 million.
This probably goes without saying but that’s really, really, catastrophically bad. Reliably acquiring at least replacement level players is a really low bar that this FO has failed to clear in recent years.
The jury’s still out on this offseason but color me skeptical that Donovan Solano and the Jorge Polanco reprise will move the needle much.
I accept the general point, but Haniger doesn’t exactly count: they acquired him in order to save tens of millions on Ray’s contract. (And at least the Randy and Turner acquisitions at mid season were much better.)
If they were a true poverty franchise they’d be fielding trade offers for Cal, the pitching staff, JP, and even Julio. That hasn’t happened and likely won’t happen as long as theyre still in the middle of the race. They’re not acting like the Rays, Marlins, or A’s who are content with holding fire sales every 3-4 years because they refuse to pay their good players.
As for the 54% quote, it is a bit of an eye-roll inducing thing for any major sportsball executive to say, but a .540 win% is basically what the Cardinals of the last 20 years have done. That’s sustainable very-goodness and usually will lead to more playoff appearances and shots at pennants/championships than a 3-4 year window of dominance followed by a lengthy tank/rebuilding session.
Raleigh and Gilbert both have 3 years of control left and Kirby has 4. Even classic “poverty franchises” like Pittsburgh don’t generally look to trade guys who have half their club control left.
OTOH, they were actively shopping Castillo and viewed clearing his salary as the only realistic path to an active offseason. It didn’t happen, but it was a pretty clear signal that this highly profitable, medium-to-large market team is maxed out at a bottom-half payroll even when it’s in the middle of a clear contention window.
I was wondering why there were 34 comments on a simple interview that could not possibly justify that many reactions. Now I know.