Updating the International Player Rankings

Now that the dust has settled on teams’ pursuit of Roki Sasaki, and clubs have signed most of their 2025 international prospects, it is time to turn our attention to the international pros whose 2025 seasons will soon get underway and to the tippy top of the 2026 international amateur class. All of my top 2025 international prospects have now signed. Twins outfielder Carlos Taveras was the last from that group to put pen to paper, signing a couple of days ago for a shade over $1 million. The players and rankings from that class have been archived on their own page of The Board, including the couple of Japanese pros who came over from NPB this offseason. Remaining on the active International Players page (which you’re going to want to open in a new tab) are the foreign pros I think readers should know about and follow for this season and beyond, as well as a couple of amateur players from the upcoming 2026 class (more on those lads in a few paragraphs).
First, let’s highlight some players, touching first on the foreign pros. Here are the foreign pro players who I think readers should be following this year, as they might have free agent relevance this coming offseason. This group has either already met the age and foreign pro league playing time requirements that would grease the wheels for their posting to MLB, or will do so this year. The Cuban players in Japan would probably need to sever ties with the Cuban government in order to come to the United States for work. Again, each of these players has a scouting report over on the International Players tab:
- Munetaka Murakami, 3B, Yakult Swallows
- Liván Moinelo, SP, Fukuoka Hawks
- Atsuki Taneichi, SP, Chiba Lotte Marines
- Raidel Martinez, SIRP, Nagoya Dragons
- Kyle Hart, SP, NC Dinos
- Kazuma Okamoto, 1B, Yomiuri Giants
- Kaima Taira, SIRP, Saitama Lions
- Tatsuya Imai, MIRP, Saitama Lions
- Baek-ho Kang, 1B, KT Wiz
- Ryosuke Ohtsu, SP, Fukuoka Hawks
- Carter Stewart, SP, Fukuoka Hawks
- Yukiya Saito, SIRP, Hokkaido Fighters
Beyond that potential 2026 group, there are also many other players for future years on The Board. Below, I want to highlight a few players whose Premier12 tournament performances late last year moved the needle for me in one direction or another. Their reports have gotten a fresh coat of paint.
Moved Up:
Hiroto Takahashi, RHP, Chunichi Dragons
Do Yeong Kim, 3B, KIA Tigers
Added:
Chihiro Sumida, LHP, Saitama Seibu Lions
Moved Down:
Shosei Togo, RHP, Yomiyuri Giants
I also want to give a hearty electronic handshake to Taiwanese center fielder Chieh-Hsien Chen, who carried his team to an improbable and amazing tournament victory over Japan, a team that hadn’t lost in international competition since 2019. Chen is 31 years old and seems unlikely to be a big leaguer, so he’s not on The Board, but he was chiefly responsible for the most significant baseball victory in the history of his country, and this post would feel incomplete if he weren’t mentioned.
Next, let’s turn our attention to the next year’s amateur class. As seasoned readers and baseball fans are probably aware, teams and prospects in this market often come to verbal agreements years before players are actually age-eligible to sign. Indeed, a couple of players for next year’s class have had verbal commitments in place since at least 2023. In an effort to land the players they think are best in a given class, teams are increasingly trying to offer big money sooner than their competitors, a strategy that has escalated to the point that 12- and 13-year-olds are agreeing to six- and seven-figure deals with powerful, global brands. There are a handful multi-million dollar 2028 commits already. It’s a difficult situation that lacks perfect solutions. As I and others have written, this system is rife with abuse and underhanded dealing, even as it delivers life-changing money to dozens of amateur players every signing period. I’m also sensitive to MLB’s incentives, and to the possibility that the justifiable moral outcry that results from the league failing to enforce its own rules might pave the way for the implementation of an international draft (assuming the league and the MLBPA are able to agree on a format). Such an exercise would address some of the more unsavory aspects of the market, but would also remove player agency from this process.
There is also the issue of teams breaking verbal deals with players when their athleticism doesn’t trend to the team’s liking, or when other, better players emerge later in the process. Because so few of these verbal deals are reported when they’re first agreed to, teams can sometimes renege on them without anyone outside the international training or scouting community knowing about it, with little recourse available to the player. There are teams that habitually over-commit their pool space knowing they’ll triage deals at some point down the line, and some of my sources believe that the late action and musical chairs that occurred as a result of clubs’ pursuit of Sasaki (which, thankfully, resulted in the players getting more money than their original deals) has made teams even more comfortable with this dynamic. I’m apprehensive about publishing bonus amounts at this time because they might change at the discretion of the team, but perhaps doing so will make it less likely that that occurs.
I have added four prospects to The Board (with their signing day age) who are rumored to be among the higher-paid players in the 2026 class. They are:
- Luis Hernandez, SS, Venezuela, San Francisco Giants
- Francisco Renteria, CF, Venezuela, Philadelphia Phillies
- Angel Nuñez Jr., CF, Dominican Republic, Cincinnati Reds
- Wandy Asigen, SS, Dominican Republic, New York Yankees
Again, their scouting reports are over on The Board if you’d like to know more. My sources tend to agree that Hernandez will get close to $5 million (he’s quite exciting), with Renteria in line for a little more than $4 million, Nuñez in the $3 million to $3.5 million range, and Asigen in the $3.5 million to $4 million range. Unlike many international amateur players, this group has been pretty active in heavily scouted environments during the last several months. Hernandez played in the Venezuelan pro summer league last year and is also rostered by Leones de Caracas in their Winter League, while Renteria, Nuñez, and Asigen all participated in WBSC activity during the fall of 2024. I’m comfortable putting them on The Board because I have a better idea of their talent thanks to their recent participation in these events.
I’m still in the early days of focused sourcing for next year’s class, and while I do have more information to disseminate, I don’t yet have a thorough enough understanding of these players’ talent to rank and grade them. As is typically the case with this market, bonus amounts permeate the scouting community through word of mouth, so the figures my sources tell me can vary a bit. Everyone in the below group is expected to get at least $2.5 million on the low end and $4 million on the high end. This is a bit of a departure for the Cardinals, who often have late-market money with which to pursue the Won-Bin Chos of the world. Note that the Yankees will likely have to trade for bonus pool space in order to honor their commitments, which is something that at least a couple of teams have to do every year.
- Victor Valdez, 3B, Dominican Republic, Boston Red Sox
- Yeison Horton, SS, Dominican Republic, New York Yankees
- Elian Rosario, OF, Dominican Republic, Texas Rangers
- Jeancer Custodio, OF, Dominican Republic, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Gregory Pio, SS, Dominican Republic, Seattle Mariners
- Enmanuel Luna, OF, Dominican Republic, St. Louis Cardinals
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
I am very curious–is there a sense in the industry that teams are good at assessing the value of 12- and 13-year-olds, such that there is a reasonable correlation between the size of the bonuses these very young amateurs are offered and some metric like their probability of accruing a certain quantity of MLB playing time or value? I realize that might be impossible for an outside analyst to answer since you don’t know about every deal, you can’t always pin down bonus amounts, and sometimes commitments get broken. But it just seems like the decade-plus road from that handshake deal to stepping onto a major league diamond is fraught with so much uncertainty that it would be a minor miracle if international scouts had better-than-chance success at picking the best players from that age group.
It’s also that perilous age where a kid could conceivably just say, nope, not into baseball that much anymore. I imagine those scouts probably grill the kid about how much they love the sport before committing anything, but interests can be fickle.
Sure, although a six- or seven-figure bonus creates a whole lot of incentive–and not just for the kid himself–to stick it out even if the game has lost its luster.
I can’t think of any top international signings who gave up on baseball. The much bigger issue is that you just don’t know how they are going to develop physically over the next three or four years.
I do think it’s different because we’re dealing with a lot of poor Latin American kids & baseball is their path out of poverty.
Obviously, this doesn’t apply to all players, but, I’d imagine that even their middle class standards are way below what Americans would consider middle class.
How many shots do they have at getting even $250K? I’d imagine they would keep playing, even for appearances sake, just to get the bonus & play thru the complex leagues at minimum for a couple of years before hanging it up.
No offense, but this shows a complete misunderstanding of the situation. These teams are exploiting these kids who are looking at potentially obtaining life changing money. The vast majority of them are not in this because they simply love baseball.
I do take offense, as I was responding to Anon21’s post and thought I picked up on his general statement pretty well, especially given what most of the other repliers to my post responded too. I appreciate their added enlightenment, but yours missed the point.
I have to imagine that they are doing better than they were, but historically the track record has been bad. Vlad Jr did pretty well, but Wander Javier actually got more money.
Here are the guys I could find who got bonuses of more than $3M and were signed before age 18 between 2015 and 2019. In other words, the guys who teams saw and felt they had to lock up. I’ve excluded a few of Cuban players for that reason as they are kind of outside that scouting process.
Wander Javier (bust)
Vlad Jr (star)
Kevin Maitan (bust)
Luis Almanzar (bust)
Wander Franco (would have been a star, but legal jeopardy)
Daniel Flores (deceased)
Jelfry Marte (bust)
Jasson Dominguez (TBD, but probably a normal everyday player)
Robert Puason (bust)
Bayron Lora (suspended and released)
Erick Pena (bust)
I don’t know how anyone can look at that list and tell me that people can tell you who the stars are going to be at age 13. It almost certainly has to be better than this in the bigger picture or more recently because this is so bad.
You only have to hit on one to pay for ten misses.
I think the real question is: Is it better or worse to spread around $3-$4.5M on two or three players, or to spend it on one? I’m pretty sure the rate of getting a star is higher for guys who get huge bonuses than those who get $1M-$3M, but I’m also guessing it is not 2x higher (much less 3x).
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Depends on how far you spread it around. And their signings over $1m have sucked too. The Pirates have operated like this for two regimes and got…Gregory Polanco. I maintain that NH swore off high dollar signings after the twin misses of Sano (switching to Minnesota) and Luis Heredia busting.
That said, it’s probably also important to note that because of the sheer number of international prospects, finding (and developing) the good ones have a huge impact on your ability to get good position players.
In 2023, international players who went through that process made up 4 of the top 5 players in position player WAR between ages 18 and 25, also clocking in at #15, #18, #19, and every player between #24 and #29.
In 2024, it was 5 of the Top 7 between 18 and 25, with others at #10, #12, #16, #18, #19, #20, #23, and #27.
The proportion of players who were signed as non-professional IFAs make up something like 15% of MLB players, and a way higher proportion of its position player stars. I’m guessing probably less on the pitching side. Landing the top amateur IFA players is no guarantee of success, but a ton of your wins are going to come from signing guys from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela to deals in between $1M and $2M. Rafael Devers, Jackson Chourio, Juan Soto…I don’t think players in this range have a better chance of becoming stars than guys who sign for over $3M but you can sign a whole lot more of them!
Along these lines of thinking, the idea of spreading out the pool over 20+ guys has been tried by some teams recently (like PIT). I would like to see some analysis, but it sure hasn’t worked well for them. Is it Pit or a more general outcome?
Not sure what you are referring to exactly. Between 2015 and 2019, I can only see two players they signed to a bonus larger than 600K–Christopher Cruz and Asvaldo Gavilan. But then, starting in 2021. The Braves have had success with guys under that bonus limit, but I’m guessing that it is fairly unusual. The hit rate of guys with bonuses under $750K is probably close to zero. And as far as I can tell, they haven’t had anyone pan out from those years. At all.
But then it looks like they’re taking a more aggressive approach from 2021 onwards. Shalin Polanco got $2.35M, Yordany De Los Santos got $1.2M, then his brother Johan for $2.25M, Tony Blanco Jr got $900K, Brailyn Brazoban for $2.0M, Abdel Feliz for $1.2M, Darell Morel got $1.8M…
In terms of whether it has paid off, I’m not sure. These guys have long timelines. But Yordany De Los Santos is now a 45, hitting well in the complex league but not in A-ball, Shalin Polanco looks like a bust, striking out way too much at every stop, and Tony Blanco Jr looks like he’s trending that way too. Obviously De Los Santos has a long way to go, but 1 out of 3 would be an outrageously high rate of success.
It hasn’t, certainly not yet. Polanco you can pretty much write off: 30% k rate over 700 plate appearances isn’t going anywhere. Blanco has had health issues and has missed time with injuries which is never good for a guy who desperately needs reps. And YDLS? Ehhh, he’s got the best shot, but he’s kinda biffed on small chances in A ball. No way he’s a 45 when that list is updated.
I like the idea that they’re finally going after bigger fish and tooled up guys, rather than the funky dink signings exclusively. You’ll end up with some egg on your face when they miss the big money guys, but if it does pay off it will pay off huge. They still need to go after higher end players than they’ve targeted.
Doe anyone know if something like the NHL draft model has ever been discussed. That would be not an international draft but a combined draft with a single minimum age. It would probably require a league like the Canadian Hockey League set up in the Caribbean for 16-18/19 year olds to play elite prospects against elite prospects to prepare for the draft. I am not sure where money for that league would come from since the CHL has teams with their own arenas and fanbases, but it would help teams make better decisions about who to sign/pick
This seems like a far better option, right?
Not for the players.
Why is that? Draft slot bonuses are higher at the top end and much higher in the middle than most INTL 16 year olds get. Or do you mean a draft is bad for the amateur players in general, which of course is clear at the top end. I don’t think including them in a draft would be worse than the current system for them.
But draft pools (coupled with limitation to 20 rounds) are much higher in the domestic draft. That explains the variability here.
Certainly a better option for the teams that haven’t had a lot of success in this market. Do you think MLB will expand their IFA draft pool size in such a scheme?
Right now the IFA pools are somewhat over 1/2 that of the domestic amateur draft. Slotting in the domestic draft came in response to what was looking like runaway spending at the top of the draft – a bit analogous to the current IFA market. But perhaps one could argue that the lower tier players in the IFA market (under 6 figures) might benefit from such an approach.
It would certainly help MLB clubs with their variable scouting efforts – which still seems to be a separator for success there.
Ryosuke Ohtsu is listed at 4’11” on THE BOARD and I’m really hoping that’s not a mistake!
We stan a short king
I got 5’8″ when I went there.
Yeah, as fun as that would be, it was a goof – should be updated on the Board now.
I expected Raidel Martinez to defect and get a substantial Major League contract, but kudos to the Yomiuri Giants in giving him a record setting deal for a reliever in the NPB.
While the draft sounds great & would put an end to a lot of the stupid subterfuge BS, my cynical self thinks MLB would never institute an international draft unless they could use it as a way to lower costs.
Which would mean less $$ for the players.
Yeah, I mean that’s all a draft is, right? The owner cartel agrees not to collectively spend more than $X on acquiring this group of amateurs. I realize that the international spending limits are sort of the same thing, except that because the system is so chaotic, it seems like some individual players get more than they could have gotten in a draft and some are screwed by broken deals.
The other piece of an int. draft is that it would cut out the buscones, the middle men that take big chunks of amateur player’s salaries. Draft means that players get a greater percent of their salaries, which could make it a win win.
That’s undoubtedly true. But I’m assuming (perhaps naively) that the buscones offer some value by identifying and developing talent. As noted above, an elite youth league exists in hockey, but would probably have to be invented (and supported financially by MLB?) to establish coaching in a way that could replace what the buscones do.
I’ve seen a healthy amount of skepticism about Munetaka Murakami’s likelihood of successfully playing in MLB, and this blurb does nothing to change that:
This specific type of hit tool deficiency seems to come up more and more often (Eric has highlighted this with Ethan Holliday).
I feel like there are a lot of guys who can’t hit breaking balls/changeups in MLB, but even AA pitchers are quite good at pounding 93-94 at the top of the zone.
I’d be intrigued to see an actual study on this, but I think “performance against velo” concerns, while valid (and definitely something I consider in terms of thinking of a player’s expectations), can be more of an unchecked box than a true weakness, due to these higher velos being true outliers in overseas leagues.
There’s a difference in seeing 90 MPH on average and struggling when you see 95 and struggling when you see 95 MPH on average; in general, sample size and relation to average are factors that matter. In other words, just because a player is struggling against the top 10% of velocity he sees doesn’t mean that he will struggle if that same number becomes the average. Guys can (and do) adjust. Ha-Seong Kim is an example of this (though I candidly don’t remember anything about his pre-USA performance against velo).
Murakami having the thunder in his bat to have an 80 raw power grade from Eric but not having the bat speed to catch up to 93+ would be a very odd outcome.
That’s a very good point. It’s possible or even likely that orgs have enough biomechanical knowhow or information about how guys swing to conclude whether they have the ability to train up to facing new velo bands.
I’m not much of a batting analyst, but that could be more about how he sets up his hands as opposed to raw bat speed. Re: Ethan Holliday, for example, Eric said, “I think his hands just work in a way that leaves him very vulnerable to many fastballs up/away.”
Not that that’s what he’s said about Murakami, who is still a 50 FV and second on the international board. I’d still be thrilled to have him on my team’s roster.
Of course as the hype builds heading into the next FA market his price might get steep, far higher than your typical 26 YO in MLB who’s early in his earning curve, perhaps not even arb eligible yet.
And guess who could be gone next year? – 34 YO 3B Max Muncy who has an option ($10 mil) for ’26. Of course it would be shocking to see the Dodgers land Murakami wouldn’t it?
Not at all. Not only will they have a spot at third base and a ton of success signing Japanese players but they have also shown little regard for infield defense. It almost feels like it’s too good of a fit.