2025 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The initial feedback from social media seems to be that folks are unimpressed with the ZiPS projections for Milwaukee’s lineup, but this is one of those occasions where multiple people can look at the same data and reach different conclusions. No, the Brewers’ lineup isn’t projected for a bunch of eye-popping WAR numbers like, say, the Dodgers’ is, but for the most part, they’re solidly above-average everywhere. Put a team like that in the NL Central and it’s very competitive. ZiPS prefers the Cubs’ offense overall, but you’ll see where the Brewers make up some ground when we get to the pitching.

You might be dissatisfied with Jackson Chourio’s projection — I’ve already heard from people who are — but for as terrific a talent as Chourio is, he’s still a young player who has some development left, and regression toward the mean is a thing for every solid player. ZiPS projects Chourio with the third-most remaining career WAR of any left fielder in baseball, behind James Wood and Wyatt Langford. And some of the team’s other problems and unanswered questions have resolved themselves in a generally positive fashion. The outfield looks relatively sorted, and Christian Yelich has righted the ship from the choppy waters of 2020-22.

There aren’t a lot of surprises in the lineup — hardly an unexpected development given how few changes the Brewers have made to it so far this winter — but there are two significant projected problems, at the corner infield spots. One of those weaker spots is likely to persist. Rhys Hoskins was lousy in 2024, but he exercised his $18 million option for 2025, which would be a huge challenge to move; at least ZiPS projects a modestly better season for him than last year. Third base is trickier, and I’m not sure the plan there will look the same in a month as it appears right now. Joey Ortiz seems likely to be the starting shortstop; he was playing third mostly because of the presence of Willy Adames, not any leatherly incompetence. The Brewers appear to have largely backed off from the idea of Tyler Black playing third, leaving the hot corner a mix of big league and big league-adjacent role players who can play third and aren’t written in elsewhere. An Alex Bregman signing strikes me as astronomically unlikely, but I expect the team to do something here.

This is a good offensive unit, but not an amazing one.

Pitchers

With a little bit of injury luck, Milwaukee’s rotation could be quiet solid in 2025, with less juggling required to keep it running. Freddy Peralta is fine, of course, and Aaron Civale will return as an adequate mid-rotation innings-eater. It’s the “buts” around them that will determine just how good the rotation is. ZiPS likes Tobias Myers quite a lot, with a projected ERA a half-run per game better than Steamer’s prognostication, which constitutes a far smaller drop-off from his rookie ERA. What remains to be seen, however, is just how many innings the team will get from Brandon Woodruff and Nestor Cortes. Cortes didn’t suffer a dramatic injury that knocked him out for 18 months, but you do worry about any lingering effects of a flexor strain. It’s still uncertain exactly when Woodruff will return, after a couple seasons ruined by shoulder problems. ZiPS is optimistic, but the Brewers have to actually get these two into games. Questions about starter viability also surround the next pitchers on the depth chart, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall.

While it doesn’t feel good to see Devin Williams follow Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes out of town, it’s kind of understandable when you look at the bullpen projections. Admittedly, Williams has a better projected 2025 line than anyone remaining in the bullpen, but the average competence level is really high and ZiPS sees the team’s depth here as myriad fathoms deep. There are 13 relievers projected with at least 30 innings on the current Depth Charts, and in relief-only roles, ZiPS sees all but two (Jacob Misiorowski and the recently acquired Grant Anderson) with ERAs in the 3.00s. And if the computer has some skepticism about Ashby or Hall as starters, it sees both of them as valuable relievers. This is the rare team that probably doesn’t need to search for bullpen depth this winter.

What does it all add up to? ZiPS sees the Brewers in the 86-90 win range right now, and you might be able to add another win or so if they deal with third base satisfactorily. And there’s a lot of upside, even after a few years of the Brewers shedding their most exciting pitcher every season.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.