2026 MLB Draft: Day 1 Recap

Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what we have them projected as on The Board, not necessarily what the player was announced as. For pitchers, we have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP).

Arizona Diamondbacks
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
ARI 15 25 45 Ryder Helfrick C 21.4 Arkansas Power, Framing, Arm
ARI 31 53 40+ Blake Bryant SP 18.9 Citizens Christian (GA) Vertical FB/CRV, Projection
ARI 53 HM 40 Carson Kerce SS 21.6 Georgia Tech Speed, Arm, Versatility
ARI 88 NR 35 Brayden Dowd OF 21.8 Florida State Contact
ARI 116 NR 35+ Josh McDevitt SP 22.1 Missouri Uphill Fastball

Arizona was in a tough spot, caught in the middle of the round just after the more skillful hitters (who are usually their type) were picked. They were left with a choice between a few hitters with balanced skill sets but bottom-dwelling defensive fits (like Logan Hughes) or good up-the-middle defenders with hit tool risk. They ended up taking a player from the latter category in Helfrick, who can frame, throw, and has power that he might not tap into consistently due to strikeouts. He could be a Mike Zunino reboot of sorts, which would be a good outcome at the 15th pick. Bryant has a nasty fastball/curveball combo and a projectable frame. We had him ranked 20 spots lower than he was picked, but we don’t really consider him to be a reach; the players in that range are comparable. Kerce has a good shot to be a speedy utility guy, Dowd needs to get stronger, and McDevitt is a test for a player dev group that hasn’t done well with pitchers. His fastball plays, but can they find a secondary pitch? — EL

Athletics
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
ATH 8 12 45+ Drew Burress CF 21.6 Georgia Tech Contact, Power, Data
ATH 47 49 40+ Mason Edwards SP 21.0 USC Curveball, Cambio, Deception
ATH 73 HM 40 Gabe Gaeckle MIRP 21.8 Arkansas Curveball, Velo
ATH 83 73 40+ Jacob Dudan SP 21.5 NC State Velo, Slider, Buy-Low
ATH 111 HM 40 Roman Martin SS 21.8 UCLA Defense, SS Upcycle?

The A’s had a great first day. It sounds like Burress was in play starting at pick five yesterday and that his camp played hardball with the teams in the no. 5-7 range that were trying to cut a deal with him. Though he’s listed at 5-foot-9, Burress (as we’ll soon learn when he’s measured for ABS purposes) is probably closer to 5-foot-7, and he’d be mold-breaking were he to thrive in a way that resembles his college output. I mostly buy that it will work for him as a hitter, but not so much as a center fielder.

After that the A’s took three pitchers who we really like. Edwards has good secondary stuff and a deceptive enough delivery to help his fastball play. Geackle has a nasty breaking ball that could play in a leverage relief role. We like Dudan’s upside and think he’d have come off the board a round earlier if he hadn’t blown out this spring.

Finally, Martin is a candidate to move up the defensive spectrum and play shortstop in pro ball after playing third base in deference to Roch Cholowsky at UCLA. These are all high-probability big leaguers who are likely to move quickly. — EL

Atlanta Braves
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
ATL 9 20 45 AJ Gracia LF 21.7 Virginia Contact, Size
ATL 26 HM 35+ Carter Beck CF 21.0 Indiana State Athlete, Power, Mystery
ATL 48 35 45 Kaiden McCarthy SP 17.9 Vermont Academy (VT) Velo, Age, Changeup
ATL 84 64 40+ Jensen Hirschkorn SP 18.6 Kingsburg HS (CA) Projection, Command, Slider
ATL 112 NR 35+ Cole Dennis SIRP 17.9 Bishop Snyder HS (FL) Two-Way Athlete, Age

The Braves had the most creative first day of any team. Gracia and Beck (a fascinating small-school Canadian prospect) are both going to be under slot, facilitating the three high school pitcher picks after them. McCarthy (a 6-foot righty who was up to 101 this spring) and Dennis (94-97 at the Combine) are smaller guys who throw hard and have one great secondary pitch. They’re also both 17 and might have a sneaky amount of growth left, both from a skill and body standpoint. Hirschkorn is huge and throws strikes, much different than the other guys. This is, pound for pound, the most interesting class. — BG/EL

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
Baltimore Orioles
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
BAL 7 6 45+ Eric Booth Jr. CF 18.0 Oak Grove HS (MS) Twitch, Power, Speed
BAL 46 16 45 Ty Head CF 21.1 NC State Contact, Defense, Projection
BAL 82 HM 35+ Dominic Voegele MIRP 21.4 Kansas Fastball Angle, Spin
BAL 110 HM 40 Kevin Roberts Jr. 1B 18.0 Jackson Prep (MS) Size, Contact

Baltimore was seen as Booth’s floor during the mock draft process and, with Kansas City throwing a curveball at pick no. 6, that is how things played out. Booth has an electricity to him that is unmatched in this draft. The quickness of his hands and his speed for his size are both show-stopping, but his swing is weird and that’s why he wasn’t in the mix at the very top of the draft.

I’m a Ty Head… head. He needs to add strength, but everything else (contact, speed, defense, natural launch, baseball IQ and acumen) is already in place. I didn’t see him as being all that different than a bunch of the college hitters who went early in the first round. I thought he was one of the better individual picks on Day 1.

Voegele is also in Baltimore’s wheelhouse. He elevates his fastball and has a 2,900-rpm breaking ball, but there’s relief risk. Roberts will be the most interesting player from this group to monitor for changes. He’s big and strong looking, and he has feel for contact, but he doesn’t hit for much power. Is there a way to unlock it? Can we watch for changes to discern how Baltimore thinks that can be done? — EL

Boston Red Sox
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
BOS 20 47 40+ Jake Schaffner SS 21.8 North Carolina Contact, Defense, Mystery
BOS 67 NR 35 Owen Hull OF 22.0 North Carolina Size, Contact
BOS 96 HM 35+ Jace Mataczynski SS 18.4 Hudson HS (WI) Power Projection, Athlete, Arm

I loved Boston targeting Schaffner as an under-slot addition in the first round. He can hit, he can play shortstop, and he’s a cold-weather player without a ton of high-level experience prior to his lone year at UNC. I had him ranked toward the top of the second round on talent and wouldn’t have considered him much of a reach even if the Sox had done him for slot.

There are two picks here I’m more skeptical of. Hull’s swing is long, and I’m scared he won’t hit. His exclusion from the pre-draft rankings wasn’t an oversight; this issue concerns me. Mataczynski is tooled up, but the contact portion of his profile is also sketchy. I’ll be looking for swing changes from both guys next spring. Mataczynski’s ask has supposedly been around $2 million, about $1.2 million above his slot, while Schaffner’s slot is $4.3 million. Based on where it seemed like Schaffner would go, it’s possible (though I don’t know) that his cut was big enough that the Sox have another bullet to fire today. — EL

Chicago Cubs
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
CHC 23 18 45 Cade Townsend SP 21.2 Ole Miss Curveball, Velo, SEC Performer
CHC 62 59 40+ Caden Sorrell RF 21.4 Texas A&M Raw Power, Launch
CHC 75 HM 40 Myles Bailey 1B 21.0 Florida State Power, Mystery
CHC 98 HM 40 Carson Jasa SP 21.8 Nebraska Velo, Slider
CHC 126 NR 35 Dylan Marionneaux SIRP 21.0 Northwestern State Slider, Velo

I really liked the first two pitchers taken here. Townsend throws strikes and has a big fastball. We’ll see if the Cubs can resist the temptation to push him quicker than he can develop his command and secondaries. Jasa is a sleeper a tier or two down, a tall drink of water still growing into his levers with a hard fastball, two solid breaking balls, and work to do on his command change. Sorrell and Bailey are both boom/bust power hitters with hit tool risk. I’m particularly curious to see if Bailey’s power translates to wood, as it looked 70 grade at Florida State. Marionneaux leans on his slider, which flashes above average when he locates down to the glove side; he projects as a reliever. — BG

Chicago White Sox
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
CHW 1 3 55 Roch Cholowsky SS 21.3 UCLA Defense, Power, Makeup
CHW 34 62 40+ Landon Thome 2B 18.7 Nazareth Academy (IL) Bat Speed, Launch, INF Fit
CHW 41 48 40+ Cole Prosek C 19.1 Magnolia Heights HS (MS) Bat Control, Bat Speed, C Fit?
CHW 77 NR 40 Joey Volchko MIRP 21.1 Georgia Velo, Breaking Balls
CHW 105 NR 35 Eric Segura MIRP 21.5 Oregon State Sweeper

As expected, the White Sox took Cholowsky with the first overall pick, and apparently he’s going to sign for (slightly) less than slot value. After trading for the 34th pick Friday night, the Sox entered the draft with the most bonus pool money and all the room in the world to go over slot. We’ll see if Thome goes for over slot; it seems like Chicago was motivated to make the aforementioned deal in part to ensure they got him. He projects as a power-over-hit second baseman with everyday upside. Prosek is a more clear-cut over-slot candidate. He’s old for a prep prospect and doesn’t have a clear defensive position, but he can hit. Volchko has a middle-relief floor with big velo and a sharp slider, and he has a chance to start with a little more touch and feel. Segura looks like a sinker/sweeper reliever. — BG

Cincinnati Reds
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
CIN 18 26 45 Justin Lebron SS 21.7 Alabama Defense, Proj, Athlete, Makeup
CIN 58 51 40+ Eric Becker SS 21.2 Virginia Buy-Low, INF Fit, Proj
CIN 70 HM 35+ Mulivai Levu 1B 21.9 UCLA Bat Control, 3B Upcycle?
CIN 94 NR 35 Tyner Horn SP 21.9 Nebraska Repertoire Depth
CIN 122 HM 40 Ethan Norby MIRP 21.5 East Carolina Slider, Command

Lebron is among the most fascinating prospects in this year’s draft. He’s an incredible athlete with an ideal baseball build that not only portends more power, but supreme athletic longevity. He also really struggles with spin and has big hit tool risk. Becker had an arrow-down junior season, but if his step back at the plate stemmed primarily from injuries, the Reds are well positioned to buy low on a guy who looked like a first-round talent a year ago. Levu is a contact-oriented first baseman with plus barrel feel; he’s athletic enough to be worth a look at the hot corner. Horn and Norby are backend starter prospects. — BG

Cleveland Guardians
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
CLE 19 13 45+ Liam Peterson SP 21.1 Florida Velo, Monster Breakers
CLE 59 63 40+ Logan Schmidt SP 18.0 Ganesha HS (CA) Vert Fastball, Breakers
CLE 95 HM 40 Tre Broussard CF 20.8 Houston Contact, Speed, Defense
CLE 123 NR 35 Kade Lewis 3B 21.1 Wake Forest Contact

Cleveland tends to absorb a certain amount of risk at the very top of the draft in exchange for the kind of upside they can’t easily acquire elsewhere. Peterson is a great match between player and team, a talented pitcher with developmental meat on the bone going to a club that’s had a lot of success building starting pitchers. Schmidt arguably already has two plus pitches, and there’s upside if the touch and feel elements come later. The Guardians went safe from there. Schmidt starting throwing harder over showcase play. He’s a little thicker than most high school pitchers, but he throws strikes with two pitches that project plus. Broussard is a slasher with elite speed who profiles as a fourth outfielder. Lewis is a contact-hitting first baseman who performed in the ACC, though he doesn’t have the bat speed or raw thump you associate with a Day 1 slugger. — BG

Colorado Rockies
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
COL 10 5 45+ Tyler Bell SS 21.0 Kentucky Swing, Launch, SS Fit
COL 37 27 45 Daniel Jackson C 21.6 Georgia Power, Athleticism, Performer
COL 38 38 45 Logan Reddemann SP 21.3 UCLA Repertoire Depth, Command
COL 76 28 45 Jack Natili C 21.3 Cincinnati Power, Framing, Size
COL 104 NR 35+ Ben Davis SIRP 22.0 Mississippi State Sink

We liked Colorado’s draft a good bit. They were presumably thrilled to see Bell still on the board, an athletic shortstop with SEC success under his belt who was a top-five player on our Draft Board. The Rockies then went back to Athens, Georgia’s “power hitter, we’ll see on the hit tool” well for Jackson. One of Reddemann’s standout traits is his ability to sell his above-average change with good arm speed, which feels like a fairly Coors-proof trait. Natili is a player who divides opinion, but even if he can’t get to his power, he’s the kind of vocal leader and quality framer that teams love to stick behind the plate. Davis throws hard with big sink, and will profile in relief if he can find a better breaking ball. — BG

Detroit Tigers
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
DET 22 34 45 Cameron Flukey SP 21.3 Coastal Carolina Vert Fastball, Curveball, Buy-Low
DET 61 HM 35+ Tyson LeBlanc 2B 21.2 Kansas Physical, SS Fit
DET 69 NR 35+ Evan Dempsey TWP 21.0 Florida Gulf Coast Skill Projection, Athlete
DET 125 NR 35 Dominic Pellegrin SS 19.1 Holy Cross HS (LA) Defense, Proj, Pretty Swing

Flukey throws hard and has two good, if not great, breaking balls. He shrugged off a mid-season injury and has otherwise held his velo and stuff throughout his career. He projects as a mid-rotation starter. LeBlanc only had one year of high-level college baseball. He projects as a utility infielder who can contribute on both sides of the ball. Dempsey was a two-way player at FGCU but will likely only pitch in pro ball. He sits in the low 90s and can really spin it. He throws strikes, but is otherwise unpolished. Pellegrin is a strong defender with the rare pretty right-handed swing. He crushed the MLB Draft League, and was the first player from that circuit taken in this year’s draft. — BG

Houston Astros
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
HOU 17 21 45 Logan Hughes LF 21.2 Texas Tech College Performance, Contact, Launch
HOU 28 39 45 Jack Radel SP 21.8 Notre Dame Cut/Rise FB, Curveball, Command
HOU 57 HM 40 Wes Mendes SP 21.8 Florida State Changeup, Repertoire Depth, Command
HOU 93 HM 40 Keon Johnson 2B 18.4 First Pres (GA) Bat Speed
HOU 121 HM 40 Kam Durnin SS 21.9 Missouri SS Fit, Physicality
HOU 133 HM 40 Beau Peterson 3B 18.9 Mill Valley HS (KS) Short-Levered LH Power

Houston had a fun, diverse draft, as if they were trying to win some kind of Bingo type game. They took a very stable college hitter in Hughes, a cutter/curveball guy in Radel, a changeup-oriented lefty in Mendes, a bat speed prodigy in Johnson, a glove-oriented utility prospect in Durnin, and then a more projectable, young lefty bat in Peterson.

The Hughes pick was surprising because he cuts against the grain of what Houston has tended to do, which is take the Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton type of player who has big athleticism and power, but lacks a stable contact profile. Hughes is the opposite, a good hitter with well below-average athleticism and speed. Radel, however, is in Houston’s wheelhouse as a cut/ride fastball guy with a good curveball and command. He’s like the fourth Notre Dame pitcher of this type who the Astros have drafted since I’ve been doing this job. This is the start of a great draft class for a system that needs it. — EL

Kansas City Royals
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
KCR 6 17 45 Zion Rose CF 21.1 Louisville Contact, Speed, Makeup, CF Upcycle?
KCR 30 45 40+ Taylor Rabe SP 21.9 Ole Miss Velo, Strikes, Deep Mix
KCR 56 HM 35+ Jack Slightom SP 18.3 Lyons Township HS (IL) Projection, Late-Riser, Velo
KCR 91 HM 40 Maxx Yehl SP 22.1 West Virginia Sneaky Fastball, Command
KCR 119 NR 35 Dominic Battista CF 18.7 Oswego East HS (IL) Bat Speed, Projection

The first misdirection of the draft, as there was a lot of smoke that had Eric Booth Jr. heading to KC in the first round. Instead they took Rose, a player with an enviable blend of power and speed; the trick will be getting him to hit the ball in the air more often. Later, the Royals opted for two of the draft’s late bloomers. Rabe barely pitched at Ole Miss until his junior year, and then dominated with one of the SEC’s best fastballs. In some ways, Slightom is a KC special, a tall and athletic Midwest pitching prospect with round-down fastball shape. He’s a candidate to take a leap forward as he focuses exclusively on baseball. Yehl is a strike-thrower with elite deception, which probably appealed to an org that puts a lot of value on pitchability. The Royals will presumably be able to buy Battista out of his commitment to UIC. He’s an athletic, if undersized, outfielder with a hit-over-power profile. — BG

Los Angeles Angels
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
LAA 12 10 45+ Jared Grindlinger TWP 17.2 Huntington Beach HS (CA) Projection, Bat Speed, Pitchability
LAA 45 46 40+ Jarren Advincula 2B 21.5 Georgia Tech Elite Bat Control
LAA 81 HM 40 Gavin Grahovac 3B 21.5 Texas A&M Power
LAA 109 NR 35 Rylan Lujo 3B 21.1 Georgia Pull/Launch

While Grindlinger was announced as an outfielder, Angels sources told us that they’re planning on developing him as a two way player. It’s a significant departure in strategy for the team, which has consistently taken the most big league-ready collegiate player available throughout the post-pandemic era. Advincula is more of that ilk, a contact maven who barreled almost literally everything as a junior at Georgia Tech. Lujo makes a lot of contact as well. He has a fully optimized spray chart — he hit a ton of balls just over the left field wall this year — but he doesn’t have big raw power. Grahovac has thump, and he just might be able to play third (he spent most of 2026 at first base). — BG

Los Angeles Dodgers
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
LAD 40 7 45+ Bo Lowrance 3B 18.8 Christ Church (SC) Lefty Power Projection, Launch, Plate Coverage
LAD 132 NR 35+ Russell Sandefer SP 21.3 Florida Slider/Changeup Command, Uphill Fastball

The Dodgers got a guy who I view as a top 10 player in the class down at pick 40 in Lowrance. For a hitter this big and projectable to have such natural swing loft, plus an ability to cover the top of the zone, is rare. It’s the kind of thing Freddie Freeman can do. I knew, when ranking Lowrance, that I was 15-20 spots higher on him than the general consensus, but I thought he’d end up going toward the back of the first.

Sandefer has a three-location attack (elevated fastballs, east/west slider and changeup operation) and throws strikes. He might benefit from a change in his stride direction. — EL

Miami Marlins
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
MIA 14 9 45+ Jacob Lombard SS 18.8 Gulliver Prep (FL) Power, Speed, Defense
MIA 52 HM 40 Ethan Kleinschmit SP 21.2 Oregon State Changeup, Command
MIA 71 NR 35 Ryan Peterson MIRP 22.3 Sam Houston Command
MIA 87 HM 40 Cam Kozeal 2B 21.7 Arkansas Lefty Power, INF Fit
MIA 115 NR 35 Wessley Roberson OF 18.4 Glynn Academy (GA) Short-Levered Contact, Speed

Understandably given their station, the Marlins tend to prioritize high-upside high school picks toward the top of the draft. Lombard fits the bill, an uber toolsy prep shortstop who fell in the draft, in part due to very shaky contact data on the showcase circuit. Miami was understandably less adventurous from there. They like guys who can spin it, and both Kleinschmit (a pitchability southpaw) and Peterson (a small-school performer) fit the bill. Peterson in particular is in the right place, as he hasn’t yet converted great feel for spin into sharp breaking balls. Kozeal is a power-over-hit utility prospect. Roberson was a surprise selection, an LSU commit who was reportedly a tough sign. — BG

Milwaukee Brewers
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
MIL 25 56 40+ Trey Ebel SS 17.8 Corona HS (CA) Contact, Age, Defense
MIL 66 60 40+ Sawyer Strosnider RF 21.0 TCU Lefty Power and Bat Speed
MIL 102 NR 35 Kyle Jones OF 21.4 Florida Power
MIL 130 NR 40 Julian Garcia SP 18.3 St John Bosco (CA) Fastball Carry, Breaking Ball Depth

I’m not thrilled with what the Brewers have done so far, but it’s not their style to be “done” this early in the draft. They tend to save money early and spread their bonus pool out across several over-slot players later, which might still happen today. Ebel is a nice, contact-oriented shortstop prospect without overt physicality. I’m skeptical that either Strosnider or Jones will hit. Garcia I like quite a bit. He can pitch and will pretty quickly have a pair of good breakers that are harder than the slow, deep curveball he has right now. The Brewers deserve the benefit of the doubt, so let’s withhold judgement until they’ve made all of their picks. — EL

Minnesota Twins
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
MIN 3 1 55 Vahn Lackey C 21.0 Georgia Tech Everything
MIN 43 58 40+ Carson Tinney C 21.3 Texas Power, Framing, Size
MIN 74 HM 35+ Brett Renfrow SP 21.5 Virginia Tech Pitchability
MIN 79 54 40+ Ethan Wachsmann SP 18.1 Grandview HS (CO) Size, Velo, Raw Spin
MIN 107 HM 40 Tommy LaPour SIRP 21.3 TCU Size, Velo, Buy-Low

It was a great draft to pick in the top three, and Minnesota was able to snap up the last of the consensus top-tier talents. Lest there be any hand wringing from Twins fans about selecting two catchers at the top of the draft, Tinney will either tap into his power enough that Minnesota will find a spot for him, or he won’t, in which case it won’t matter. The Wachsmann pick is exciting. He’s a late bloomer, and while he’s quite raw, he has prototypical size, premium arm strength, and flashes plus secondary stuff. LaPour and Renfrow are college pitchers with relief risk for different reasons: lack of feel and pitchability in the former case, mild stuff in the latter. — BG

New York Mets
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
NYM 27 HM 40+ Carson Wiggins SIRP 21.1 Arkansas Elite Velo, Buy-Low
NYM 92 HM 40 Aiden Robbins RF 21.5 Texas Power, Athlete, SEC Performance
NYM 120 HM 35+ Shane Sdao SP 22.8 Texas A&M Command, Repertoire Depth, SEC Perf

I’m excited to see what the Mets, who have been very good at developing pitching, can do with Wiggins, who looked like a potential top-15 pick before he blew out. Sdao could be this draft class’ Zach Thornton, a player they find a way to help throw harder without sacrificing his command. I’m skeptical about Robbins being able to hit and had him lower than the consensus, but picking him in the 90s feels fine. — EL

New York Yankees
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
NYY 35 19 45 Hunter Dietz SP 21.4 Arkansas Velo, Breaking Balls, SEC Performance
NYY 63 75 40+ Sean Duncan SP 18.2 Terry Fox (BC) Size, Projection, Arm Strength
NYY 99 NR 35+ Brendan Brock C 21.9 Oklahoma Speed, Athleticism
NYY 127 NR 35 Paul Gutierrez-Contreras OF 20.9 Cal State Fullerton Age, Pull Power, Size

Dietz was great value where the Yankees got him and is likely to move quickly. Duncan, who blew out this spring, will be a must-see prospect about 12 months from now once he’s done rehabbing (and has probably gotten much stronger than he was this spring) with one of the better conditioning and pitcher-improving orgs in the league. Both of them could be mid-rotation starters.

Duncan might be over slot, as Brock is a senior. He’s fast and athletic for a catcher, and could be a multi-positional utility type in pro ball. Gutierrez-Contreras is a young-for-the-class outfielder with impressive physicality (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), great mid-major performance, and the ability to pull fastballs. His splits against good velocity aren’t great. — EL

Philadelphia Phillies
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
PHI 36 50 40+ Tyler Spangler SS 18.8 De La Salle (CA) Buy-Low, INF Fit, Projection
PHI 64 HM 40 Caden Bogenpohl RF 21.3 Missouri State Elite Raw Power
PHI 100 HM 35+ Ruger Riojas MIRP 23.0 Texas Velo, Changeup
PHI 128 NR 35+ Deven Sheerin SIRP 20.9 LSU Velo, Buy-Low
PHI 135 HM 40 Jaxon Jelkin SP 23.6 Kentucky Size, Projection

The Phillies draft was top-heavy, with a potentially over-slot Spangler up top and what look like some pretty hefty under-slot targets later. Spangler exited last summer as a virtual lock for the middle of the first round or higher, then his team was collectively suspended for partying and he had a stress fracture in his back. He looked rusty at the Combine. If the Phils can get Bogenpohl to tap into his power in games, then they’ll have a second-round steal. With this kind of power, he can run a sub-70% contact rate and still thrive so long as he’s getting to the pop, which he was last able to do freshman year. Riojas and Sheerin could be quick-moving relievers à la Orion Kerkering. Jelkin is a lanky, talented pitcher who had a nomadic college career due to off-field behavior. — EL

Pittsburgh Pirates
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
PIT 5 15 45 Derek Curiel CF 21.1 LSU SEC Performance, Contact, Speed, CF Fit
PIT 44 37 45 Aiden Ruiz SS 19.3 Stony Brook HS (NY) Elite Defense
PIT 51 HM 40 Chris Rembert 2B 21.0 Auburn SEC Perf, Power
PIT 80 HM 35+ Jason DeCaro MIRP 20.2 North Carolina Strikes, Youth, Changeup
PIT 108 HM 40 Andruw Giles CF 18.5 Basic HS (NV) Contact, Athlete, CF Fit?

After the first three, and arguably four, picks went chalk, Pittsburgh was the first team that had to pick a lane. Curiel went higher than we had him on both our Board and in our mock, but valuing the athleticism, bat-to-ball skill, and glove was defensible here in a spot without an obvious option. Just yesterday, the Pirates traded the 34th overall pick for Jacob Gonzalez and Brandon Eisert. It’s another understandable decision, given where they are in the standings, but we wonder if the Bucs were feeling a bit wistful when that spot rolled around with several early-to-mid-first-rounders still available, particularly since they had a ton of bonus pool space to play around with. Regardless, I’d expect them to take several overslot guys throughout the rest of the draft. Ruiz, a shortstop with contact skill and a great glove, got the ball rolling on that front, but the other three picks have a role-player veneer. Perhaps that’s not fair to Giles, a high school outfielder with feel to hit and a chance to stay in center. — BG

San Diego Padres
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
SDP 21 43 45 Coleman Borthwick SP 18.3 South Walton HS (FL) Size, Velo, Power Breaker
SDP 60 HM 35+ Elliot Lascelles SS 18.4 Upper Canada College (ON) Contact, Mystery
SDP 97 HM 40 Ryan Lynch SIRP 21.1 North Carolina Slider, Velo
SDP 124 NR 35+ Robbie Lavey C 20.9 George Washington Lefty Power, Mystery
SDP 134 NR 35 Alex Conover OF 20.9 Oklahoma State Patience, Projection

The Padres had a bold draft that included a couple of players who were tougher to evaluate because of the level of competition they faced. Lascelles is a Canadian infielder who isn’t especially physical or athletic, but he can hit, and he did so at an elite level in the little bit of wood bat travel ball he participated in. Lavey is a lefty-hitting catcher from a small school who had some nutty BP performances during private workouts. Of course, Borthwick is a gigantic high school righty with huge stuff and the usual risk you’d associate with high school pitching, plus a little more because he’s a heavier kid in the Alek Manoah physical mold. Lynch looks like a nasty, quick-moving reliever to us, while Conover is a patient (maybe too patient) 6-foot-4 outfielder without a red flag, but also without a plus physical tool. At his size, there’s a chance one (maybe the power) will improve late. — EL

San Francisco Giants
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
SFG 4 4 50 Jackson Flora SP 21.1 UC Santa Barbara Everything
SFG 29 30 45 Carson Bolemon SP 19.3 Southside Christian HS (SC) Pretty Delivery, Command, Breaker Depth, FB Ride
SFG 55 55 40+ Kaden Waechter SP 18.9 Jesuit HS (FL) Repertoire Depth, FB Vert
SFG 90 HM 40 Peyton Bonds OF 21.0 Rutgers Contact, Raw Power, Physicality
SFG 118 NR 35 Carlos Martinez MIRP 21.8 Hofstra Arm Strength

Flora was a classic “don’t overthink this” pick. He’s talented, he’s genial, he has a knowledge and understanding of his craft that can diffuse to other players, and he’ll help the big league team pretty quickly. The two high school pitchers were both ranked within a couple of spots of where they were picked. They are the first indications that the current regime is willing to swim in riskier draft waters. Bonds will be a test for the org’s player development program to see if they can get him to lift the ball in a way that takes advantage of his raw power without sacrificing too much of his contact for it to be worth it. — EL

Seattle Mariners
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
SEA 24 31 45 Ace Reese LF 21.3 Mississippi State Power, SEC Performance
SEA 65 HM 40 Jake Brown CF 21.5 LSU Speed, Athlete, CF Upcycle?
SEA 101 NR 35 Nathan Taylor SP 21.3 Cincinnati Delivery, Extension, Fastball Carry
SEA 129 NR 35 Trevor Lucas 3B 21.2 UNC Wilmington Well-Rounded, Mystery

Reese was the first college hitter the Mariners had selected with their top pick since Evan White. He and Brown are very different flavors of position player, as Reese is a power-over-hit prospect without an obvious position, and Brown is a plus-plus athlete with below-average impact. The Mariners have done extremely well with first-round pitchers in the Dipoto era, but they’ve also found starters later in the draft (Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller), and for Seattle of all teams, it makes sense to grab the bats first and see what they can do with Taylor. Incidentally, Taylor went considerably ahead of where I expected, though both he and Lucas (a well-rounded small-school hitter without an obvious carrying tool) were drafted in a space where Seattle tends to cut a deal. — BG

St. Louis Cardinals
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
STL 13 22 45 Trevor Condon CF 18.5 Etowah HS (GA) CF Fit, Contact, Athlete
STL 32 24 45 Tegan Kuhns SP 21.1 Tennessee Uphill Fastball, Frame, Breaker Projection
STL 50 41 45 Rocco Maniscalco SS 17.2 Oxford HS (AL) Youth, Power, Defense
STL 68 61 40+ Andrew Williamson RF 21.0 Central Florida Bat Speed
STL 72 HM 35+ Dawson Montesa SIRP 20.9 West Virginia Repertoire Depth, Control, Athlete
STL 86 NR 35+ Caden Ferraro 1B 21.6 Texas Tech Swing Decisions, SEC Performer
STL 114 57 40+ Dee Kennedy SS 21.3 Kansas State Athlete, Speed, Arm

In the first Chaim Bloom draft, the Cardinals had seven Day 1 picks, and there’s something here to excite analysts of all stripes. In the first round, they took a player that models are likely to be more enthusiastic about than scouts, as Condon is a smaller, contact-oriented high school player with less upside than many of the guys in his draft orbit. There’s arguably more upside with their second-rounder, as Kuhns already has a good fastball and control, and could really blossom if they can sharpen his breaking ball. Maniscalco and Kennedy are toolsy middle infielders, and look like great value picks where they were taken. Williamson is a boom/bust power hitter with a swing that may not work against good velo. Montesa was a small-school transfer to WVU and may have a lot of developmental runway left. Both he and Ferraro, a college performer with strong measurable swing decisions, project as role players. — BG

Tampa Bay Rays
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
TBR 2 2 55 Grady Emerson SS 18.4 Fort Worth Christian HS (TX) Everything
TBR 33 42 45 Taj Marchand SS 18.0 James Island Charter HS (SC) Power, Projection, SS Fit
TBR 49 23 45 Ben Blair SP 21.3 Liberty Slider, Fastball Angle
TBR 85 NR 35+ Gavin Giese SP 18.7 Dana Hills HS (CA) Projection
TBR 113 HM 35+ Collin Bland 1B 18.7 Houston HS (TN) Huge Power

The Rays got their guy in Emerson with the second overall pick. They had him first on their board, supposedly with a bit of a gap between him and the next player. They also continued their trend of taking a lot of high school players, leaning more on scout-y tools than performance. Marchand and Bland have big power, while Giese has fairly exciting physical projection. Blair is a strike-throwing college starter who gives the class a player with a high floor. — EL

Texas Rangers
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
TEX 16 14 45+ Gio Rojas SP 19.0 Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) Everything But Mechanical Ease
TEX 54 33 45 Connor Comeau 3B 17.9 Anderson HS (TX) Lefty Power Projection, INF Fit
TEX 89 74 40+ Brody Bumila SP 18.5 Bishop Feehan HS (MA) Crazy Velo and Size, Changeup
TEX 117 NR 35+ Hudson Calhoun SIRP 21.9 Ole Miss Fastball Playability

The Rangers’ draft was high-variance player after high-variance player for the first three picks. Rojas is the best high school pitcher in the class and a potential no. 2/3 starter, though his delivery is a bit more violent than the typical prep arm’s. Comeau has big lefty power projection, but less promising feel for contact. He’s the high school version of first rounder Ace Reese. Bumila is hurt and will have elbow surgery in Texas after his signs. He’s a spring pop-up arm with triple digit heat, freakish size, a precocious changeup, and a breaking ball that needs some pitch design love. Calhoun is a walk-prone reliever with a bat-missing fastball. — EL

Toronto Blue Jays
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
TOR 39 11 45+ Cole Carlon SP 21.1 Arizona State Velo, Elite Slider
TOR 103 NR 35+ Ryan Cooney SS 21.8 Oregon Contact, MIF Fit
TOR 131 36 45 Will Brick C 18.1 Christian Brothers HS (TN) C Fit w/Enough Bat

The Jays didn’t have many early picks or much bonus pool money, so it looked like they were destined to be price takers to some degree. It didn’t play out that way, though, as Carlon, one of our top pitchers, fell all the way to no. 39 overall. They then got Brick, another top-40 pick on our Board, in the fourth round. To pick that late and still land the best breaking ball and top high school catcher in the draft has to be a pleasant surprise. Maybe it’s just the Oregon connection weighing too heavily on my mind, but Cooney reminds me a bit of Josh Kasevich. They’re both middle infielders with great bat-to-ball skills who fit better at second than short, and both are former Ducks who wound up as early-round selections for Toronto. The Jays may need to take a conservative approach today to make the math work on their Day 1 picks. — BG

Washington Nationals
Team Pick Rank FV Name Pos. Age School Strengths
WSN 11 8 45+ Chris Hacopian 2B 21.9 Texas A&M Elite SEC Data
WSN 42 52 40+ Chase Brunson CF 21.0 TCU Buy-Low, CF Fit, Contact
WSN 78 67 40+ Luke Williams SS 18.6 Franklin Regional HS (PA) Athlete, Speed, Sneaky Pop
WSN 106 HM 40 Cooper Harris SP 18.1 Flower Mound HS (TX) Spin, Projection

The Nationals had a very balanced and exciting first day, as they walked away with Hacopian (who might have gone higher had he not dealt with injuries this year) and Brunson (who entered the year as a mid-first-rounder for me but had a tough year), and then two high schoolers with a fair bit of upside. Williams has the look of an athletic utility guy, while Harris has plus breaking stuff. — EL





34 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
norcalblueMember since 2024
21 days ago

very impressive work. Thank you both for your extraordinary work and expertise! A reminder of just how much we receive for our membership. If you are not a member and enjoy reading Eric and Brendan please consider becoming a member.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
21 days ago

It’s easy to “win the draft” when you have a lot of picks and pick high but I think there is a very good chance we look back on the Rays’ and Cards’ draft approvingly. They both followed the same blueprint, almost exactly:

1) One athletic prep left handed position player who will likely stick up the middle and has the sort of hustle and grit to max out their tools even though the power-speed combo is more above average than elite
2) One excellent strike throwing college pitcher with good stuff
3) One prep shortstop who has a good chance to stick there with impressive now-power, tons of physical projection, and major hit tool risk

The first two are pretty safe as far as prospects go (which is not actually safe, but you get the idea) but have some upside, and the last one is the guy who could wind up as an all-star power hitting shortstop in the Trevor Story mold. It’s an exciting group, even if they had more picks to make it work.

raregokusMember since 2022
21 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I loved most of what the Cardinals did but hated the Condon pick. Maybe I’m undervaluing contact oriented defense-first CFs, but everything about him screams fourth OF to me and we already have a Nathan Church at home.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
21 days ago
Reply to  raregokus

If you want to feel better about your team picking Trevor Condon go check out what Kiley says about him. He dropped a totally irresponsible Kevin McGonigle on him.

I don’t think he’s Kevin McGonigle or Corbin Carroll but sometimes this demographic (left handed, up the middle fit, prep player, not a ton of overt physical projection) and who play with their hair on fire gets underrated because they tend to max out what they have. At least in comparison to the Marcelo Mayer / Walker Jenkins / Riley Greene / Kyle Tucker tools types.

Of course, Jared Kelenic and Alek Thomas are also part of that group, they just didn’t have enough to max out. That’s possible too, but if you look at the guys who get picked around #13 they tend to be more like Josh Lowe, Will Benson, Nick Pratto, and Connor Scott than guys like Trent Grisham. There’s no guarantee Jacob Lombard, Ryder Helfrick, Gio Rojas, or Justin Lebron are going to work out either.

Last edited 21 days ago by sadtrombone
raregokusMember since 2022
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Just when I think I’m out, trombone + Kiley pull me right back in…

dan norman learMember since 2024
21 days ago

This is terrific.

Is the hope with Lebron that he becomes… Sharon Dunston?

jolerudMember since 2025
21 days ago

Sorry for my naivety (and I’m sure it’s explained elsewhere or an obvious shorthand that I “should” know), but what does the acronym “HM” mean for a given draftee’s rank?

Last edited 21 days ago by jolerud
Meg RowleyFanGraphs Staff
21 days ago
Reply to  jolerud

Fair question! That he’s an honorable mention. Not a guy who would be on the ranked portion of one of our lists, but good enough to be in the “Other Prospects of Note” section. (“NR” indicated guys who weren’t on The Board prior to the draft.)

jolerudMember since 2025
21 days ago
Reply to  Meg Rowley

Thank you, Meg!

eccentricatlfan
21 days ago
Reply to  jolerud

Basically “Honorable Mention”. If you look at The Board then go to the MLB Draft section, you’ll see guys grouped together by level and player type, where they aren’t part of the numerical rankings but are still interesting enough to point out and consider. (And to answer the logical follow-up, NR means they didn’t appear on The Board whatsoever, though some will show up on the post-draft update if they’re graded with at least a 35+ FV.)

jolerudMember since 2025
21 days ago

Thank you, eccentric one!

sadtromboneMember since 2020
21 days ago

The other drafts I liked—much like Eric—are the Orioles and the Rockies. I wasn’t super high on either of the Rockies’ catchers but getting them in addition to Bell and Reddemann is great. Booth is more Marquis Grissom than Eric Davis but he’s super exciting, and I like Head a lot too.

And in the “they can’t keep getting away with this” gifs we have the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays.

The Astros, Rangers, and Braves drafts are going to be very interesting to follow, just a huge amount of risk but a lot of upside.

I don’t love the drafts for the D-Backs, Pirates, Brewers, Red Sox, Nationals, or Royals so far. The Pirates, Royals, Red Sox, and Brewers might have more overslot targets and so maybe they’re not done.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
21 days ago

It looks like the top guys who might be signable on an overslot deal are Denton Lord, Will Adams, Landon Brown, and Savion Sims. I also am a fan of Landon Thiel.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Okay, it looks like the Pirates’ big swing is going to be for Spencer Evans (in round 11, where teams often take this type of overslot guy) but they also took Malachi Washington in 18. That’s probably more for if one of their other preps turns them down (maybe Evans himself). Washington has an FV40+ grade, I don’t think Eric gave Evans a grade.

The Red Sox grabbed Martin Shelar in the ninth round. Eric has an FV40+ grade on him. That’s actually a decent overslot candidate.

The Nationals grabbed a guy I haven’t heard of in round 16 named Anthony Murphy who looks like he might need a decent sized bonus. Probably more for insurance in case one of their other guys does not sign.

I don’t see anybody the Brewers, Royals, or D-Backs who would qualify, so they are either spreading the overslot money around or they don’t have any. Kind of a bummer for them.

Looks like the Guardians grabbed Savion Sims around round 7. They must be confident they can sign him.

The Tigers got Will Adams in round 11, and Eric has him as an FV45. He would probably be the third best prospect in the Tigers draft class.

The Rockies took Blake Bowen in a non-slot position so he’s probably insurance but he is a legitimate prospect (Eric has him at 40+). Same with the Padres and Denton Lord, and Eric has Lord as an FV45. Probably not getting him.

Looks like Landon Brown and Landon Thiel’s numbers were high enough that nobody bothered to draft them.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’m not especially thrilled by what Pittsburgh did. Open till a day or two before the draft, I was convinced Flora would be there. San Francisco, then changed course and picked him.

All of the Bucs options at that point were tough calls. Lombard and Booth both had question marks, as did the college hitters. But Curiel? He looks like he’d lose an arm wrestling contest to Montgomery Burns. It just sounds like he’s gonna get the bat knocked out of his hands. And if he doesn’t stay in center, that’s a fourth OF. By my count he had 12 extra base hits in SEC play. Rembert was down in SEC play too. Ruiz sounds intriguing, but he’s pretty old for his class.

I wouldn’t have minded a college hitter, given how the board played out, Curiel was like the 4th or 5th option. And they didn’t mix this with any potential high risk. High reward types after it. Just seemed like a play it safe draft (which isn’t surprising, because Justin Horowitz, who ran the last two drafts, is in Washington’s FO now).

Last edited 20 days ago by gettwobrute79
sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  gettwobrute79

I don’t like their draft either. There were a couple of really great options there that they passed on with that first pick, and while in theory they could cut a deal with a guy and pick up some high upside prep guys later the only guys who fit that description are Ruiz and Giles.

If they get Spencer Evans that would make it better but it looks to me like they’re just not getting a lot of savings from Curiel or Ruiz is going to command an enormous bonus. Curiel is a good prospect but there’s not a lot separating him and Rose from guys like Gracia, Condon, or Head, all of whom likely would have come with more savings to grab more guys later.

Of course it could also work out and Curiel could turn into a Jacoby Ellsbury / Brett Gardner type and Ruiz could be a Brayan Rocchio / Geraldo Perdomo type but neither of them look like they’re going to have 50 raw and that limits the upside.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yep. If they didn’t want the prep risk of Booth/Lombard, they could have gone with a higher risk guy on the mound like Peterson. Among the college bats, I would have been cool with Burress, Gracia, Rose…some Bucs fans were pretty vocal for Grindlinger (which I thought would have been possible, given the organization’s propensity for players with a two-way background).

Even if they took Curiel, I’d have loved them to try someone like Volchko or any number of the prep arms. I’m not saying you need to shoot for the moon with every pick, but it sounds like they didn’t do that with their picks.

eccentricatlfan
21 days ago

So, a few Braves-related notes for this draft:

1. The MLB.com recap (inferior to this one, IMO) noted re: Gracia that the last time the Braves took a college hitter in the first round was Shea Langeliers, who coincidentally was also the 9th pick (at least in 2019). However, I think that connection is more apt than just that point, as Langeliers also had power-related concerns in his platform year (albeit due to a hamate injury), but the Braves were still willing to take a gamble anyway that it would eventually come. And even though their profiles are obviously different, I can’t help but think that the Braves might be similarly willing to bet that Gracia’s power will similarly come the farther he gets away from this year. (Admittedly also have concerns re: Virginia coaching, and looking at Ethan Anderson since his drafting in particular, but those comments would be more scattered and would need more elaborating.)
2. I remember seeing somewhere that while Cole Dennis wasn’t comfortable with his changeup, apparently he was fine with killing speed on it. I’d be willing to bet that the Braves might try to give him a splitter, since they’ve done that with quite a few of their pitchers over the past few years.
3. A bit surprised they ultimately didn’t go after Bolemon (especially since he looked like an excellent fit for them), but I’m very intersted to see how they develop Jensen Hirschkorn, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they also gave him a splitter as well. A few months ago, Brendan noted that the Braves weren’t great at drawing out control/command improvements, though they were good at getting guys to throw harder. Would be interested to see how they handle Hirschkorn since he already has good control/command, and any velo increases would be interesting with how they interact with his tall frame and changes they make to his delivery to take advantage of that.

riibettMember since 2020
21 days ago

Hirschkorn will definitely be a ton of fun to follow as the ceiling guy of the three.

Think it’s also gone a bit under the radar the Braves developing guys physically of late, thinking specifically of Gil most recently. Hopefully some capacity there to help out Gracia max out.

jdbolickMember since 2024
21 days ago

What I like most about the Orioles’ draft is that Booth and Head are so different as prospects that you wouldn’t expect a GM to select both of them. Booth is a tooled up monster who understandably gets scouts excited, whereas Head’s value comes from low whiff and chase rates that suit the analytically inclined. I’m happy about each, as I was hoping that either Flora or Booth would last to the seventh selection.

mattMember since 2023
20 days ago

I’m just off Lombard completely as a first rounder. It shocked me how he was getting talk as a potential top 5 pick. He couldn’t make contact at all against top arms over the summer, what he does against mediocre HS arms that aren’t even D1 quality does not move me. He screams a elijah green redux

sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  matt

At 5 he’s a huge reach, at 14 he’s a tools bet.

It was always crazy to me that people were talking about picking him over Eric Booth and Jackson Flora (and Bell, although some of that was medical related).

I mean, I wouldn’t have taken him around that 14 either. I probably would have tried to cut a deal there since at that point there were about 15 or 20 plausible prospects for #14.

But I can at least see the argument. His hit tool grade will probably be a binary “no” in the mold of Carson Williams, but if it isn’t he’s going to be pretty neat. Like if Patrick Wisdom was a 55 at shortstop. Maybe better.

FWIW I also don’t see any real daylight between him and Taj Marchand, and would put Marchand first if I had to pick one. I think we’re looking at an uphill battle for both of them to make contact but at least Marchand’s approach worked for him against prep arms. Lombard can’t say that.

Last edited 20 days ago by sadtrombone
opifijiklMember since 2024
20 days ago

I am a little confused about the Owen Hull write-up: contact is a strength, but you’re scared he won’t hit?

MichaelMember since 2017
20 days ago

The Brewer’s continue their confounding ways. “The Brewer’s deserve the benefit of the doubt…” is faint praise for a team that learned analysts have had trouble categorizing for the past half dozen years or so. They must be using different models or perhaps are on a lucky streak? The prediction game is a hard business.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  Michael

It’s obviously both being lucky and good, but it’s it isn’t like the Brewers don’t make mistakes. The Brewers took Eric Brown in 2022 and Brock Wilken in 2023. A lot of the Brewers’ success comes from international scouting and teaching their pitchers how to tunnel.

In general we give teams that have been good recently too much credit and teams that have been bad too little. The difference between the Brewers / Rays and the Mets / Red Sox is actually pretty small, but if you were to read the FG comment sections you would never know that. The big difference is that the latter owners are a lot more involved and so there are messes to clean up along the way. (I also did not like the Red Sox’s or Mets’ drafts either).

sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  Michael

In any case, the Brewers appear to be staking a lot on signing guys taken on day 2 because Ebel probably should not command a bonus higher than $2M and Garcia and Strosnider should not take up all that money. Oshinske, Chase Mora (a pitching conversion candidate), and Andrew Gaines should also come well in under slot.

That means they are banking on signing a ton of smaller high school prospects like Hill, Tom, Hart, Mariana, and Bell to moderate overslot deals. There is some method to that but you have to be super confident in your scouting because guys like that almost never pan out. But the Brewers are very, very confident.

g4Member since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

The Brewers opting to maximize their number of bites at the (prospect) apple. Who’da thunk?

Personally I would have preferred they went a little less underslot in the first round to land anyone with a higher ceiling than utility reserve. I know they hate using high picks on pitching, but #25 isn’t really that high and college arms like Ben Blair or Logan Reddeman should be plenty signable.

Obviously the scouting gurus that I’m regurgitating may simply be underselling Ebel’s potential, but it kinda feels like the Brewers got caught in an awkward spot after Townsend and Reese got popped. [That said, I did like their high-risk/high-reward pick of Strosnider in Round 2.]

sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  g4

I think they must just really like the Ebel kids. I just don’t see it. I know that contact oriented, up the middle fits without huge tools can be underrated at draft time but not that much.

I probably would have taken Ty Head, Taj Marchand, or Connor Comeau there. I assume that all of them would sign underslot but not as much under as what Ebel is getting. Maybe I would go for Bo Lowrance, I know Eric loves him (I don’t know much about him). But I also thought Cole Carlon and Hunter Dietz were great value where they were picked and fit somewhere in the 15-25 range. Probably just didn’t want to pick a guy with injury issues no matter how awesome the stuff is.

In general I don’t mind going way underslot but wow this is a weird group to spend the savings on.

g4Member since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Agreed on the enticing upside of Carlon and Dietz. I excluded them and Head for possibly not being underslot enough to fit the team’s apparent strategy. Of course, we can’t dismiss the injury histories here either.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
19 days ago
Reply to  g4

Okay, now I’m really digging into this.

I really don’t know Ebel is going to sign for, but they signed his brother for $2.75M which is probably 750K higher than I would have gone for either of them.

If he signs for that amount (a reasonable guess, since that is what his brother signed for) then that’s the slot value of the 36th / 37th pick. That’s lower than Dietz’s slot and higher than Carlon’s and Head’s.

In those scenarios I absolutely would have gone for one of those guys if they could agree to a deal at that level.

Not sure what Marchand’s or Comeau’s price is, but Marchand’s slot is at $3M and Comeau’s is at $1.8M.

I think I heard something like Marchand’s number was $3.4M and Comeau’s was $2M. So Marchand wouldn’t have worked but Comeau would have, even if you had to go up higher than that number.

If you wanted to be sure to get a huge underslot deal though you would need to get a college junior picked between #45 (slot value is $2.25M) and #65 ($1.4M). Ty Head is in that group, so he would have been a great pick, but he is closer to the top of that level; same with Ben Blair. Depending on what you think of Mason Edwards, maybe him as well. Going down further you could have gotten Eric Becker or Caden Sorrell but they’re the same grade as Ebel on Eric’s board.

This all comes down to whether you think Ebel is going to get a $2.75M bonus or something smaller, and what you think he’s worth.

grandbranyanMember since 2017
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

That means they are banking on signing a ton of smaller high school prospects like Hill, Tom, Hart, Mariana, and Bell to moderate overslot deals. There is some method to that but you have to be super confident in your scouting because guys like that almost never pan out. But the Brewers are very, very confident.

Not deep enough in the weeds to know how any of the high schoolers the Brewers picked this year compare on a player to player basis with some of the high schoolers they have gotten from Round Ten onward since 2022, but some of those names are…

Luke Adams ($283K), Bishop Letson ($483K), Josh Adamczewski ($253K), Justin Chambers ($548K traded for Bryan Hudson), Ethan Dorchies ($163K), Jayden Dubanewicz ($665K)

Not high schoolers but have also nabbed college guys like Brian Fitzpatrick (100K), Cameron Wagoner (125K), Brett Wichrowski (100K), Tyson Hardin ($148K), and Braylon Owens (10K).

Was an 8th rounder out of college, but Craig Yoho (10K) is another pretty big success story of their recent low dollar signings.

So last four years Round Ten onward they’ve gotten what I would consider four legit prospects in Adams, Letson, Adamczewski and Hardin plus Fitzpatrick who made his MLB debut earlier this year despite never getting an HM or showing up in an Other Prospects of Note (& a 2.7 rWAR | +2.57 WPA season out of Bryan Hudson via trade).

Wagoner has been pumping gas in Biloxi (41 ERA- | 69 FIP-) and will probably be getting the bump to AAA soon. Dorchies (154 IP of 76 ERA- | 91 FIP-) and Dubanewicz (129 IP of 59 ERA- | 86 FIP-) have both gotten good results and made A+ already (three of only 13 pitchers in the Midwest League with at least 20 IP in their Age 20 or younger season). Braylon Owens put up 63 IP of 70 ERA- | 74 FIP- in the MWL before getting the bump to Biloxi last week. Wichro has stuffed his way to some prospect rankings but has never really gotten the results to match.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
20 days ago
Reply to  grandbranyan

Yeah although the first two guys I mentioned (Hill and Tom) were in rounds 7 and 8 so they would be eligible for some money from their slot position.

The 11th round is also a little different, that’s often where teams pick players who they want but might not sign. Some actual prospects like Bishop Letson and Caden Dana come out of that spot.

The real deep cuts are Maiorana, Ruby, Havard, Bell, and Hart. These guys were picked even after some college senior types, so these guys are really not on teams’ radars. Unless Strosnider and Garcia are going way over slot or Ebel signs for closer to slot I am guessing a substantial amount of the bonus money they saved earlier targeted for some set of these guys.

hofheinzMember since 2024
20 days ago

I’m just confused as to how Logan Hughes got the “SEC Performance” tag

Meg RowleyFanGraphs Staff
20 days ago
Reply to  hofheinz

Fatigue on both the writer and editor end of things! Updated – thanks for spotting.