2026 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Miami Marlins.

Batters

While the Marlins were expected to need to fight hard to get out of the NL East basement in 2025, the team was surprisingly solid from midseason on, and though they never reached .500, they at least flirted with it thanks to a winning record in the second half.

A lot of the happy surprises in Miami came from the starting lineup. While a team wRC+ of 96, good for 21st in the majors, doesn’t exactly occasion a “Mission Accomplished” banner, both marks were a notable improvement on the team’s recent history. Indeed, a 96 wRC+ represents the team’s best result since 2017, that year being one of only two seasons in which the Marlins passed the century mark. While there’s no direct comparison to the team’s terrific Marcell Ozuna/Christian Yelich/Giancarlo Stanton outfield of that era, there’s actually some good young offensive talent on the team. And importantly for Miami, it’s generally inexpensive.

Looking at the projections, ZiPS has the Marlins, if not becoming a good offense, at least maintaining that sheen of relative competence. The up-the-middle positions are especially well filled, with multiple options behind the plate, Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards on the infield, and Jakob Marsee coming off an excellent debut. The computer does project some regression from Marsee, as his minor league performance did not match his performance in the majors. But even with his numbers dropping a bit, he still projects to be a real plus as the full-time starting center fielder. Elsewhere on the infield, ZiPS thinks Connor Norby is adequate, if unexciting.

Kyle Stowers had his season cut short due to an oblique injury, but 2025 was a roaring success for him, as he hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 homers, and legitimately earned his All-Star appearance. Given his history, ZiPS, like Steamer, isn’t ready to say he’s established his stunning 2025 as his expected baseline, but his breakout was sufficient such that he looks like he can at least hit in the majors the way a corner outfielder should.

What’s keeping the offense from taking that next step is the lack of accompanying big bats at the other offense-heavy positions. First base and right field look like strict stopgap arrangements until the Marlins find something better. Agustín Ramírez may end up a full-time DH given that he’s being pushed by Joe Mack, a superior defensive catcher, but he still hasn’t shown that he has a DH-worthy stick. ZiPS isn’t going all-in on Heriberto Hernández, either; he only hit .220/.319/.454 in the minors this year, after all.

ZiPS doesn’t think the Marlins have good options to fill these positions from within. It sees the team’s position player prospects as being a good step behind the pitchers, and it’s not optimistic about upper minors hitters such as Kemp Alderman or Deyvison De Los Santos. For most organizations, this would be a lure for the team to add a big name free agent and provide a middle-of-the-order accompaniment to Stowers, but this is rarely Miami’s approach. As a result, it’s unclear whether this lineup will ever actually get to the next level before the principals approach free agency and the seemingly inevitable trades start.

Pitchers

Sandy Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery wasn’t the smoothest, and though his velocity was mostly back, he was far more crushable than he was at his 2022-2023 best. He did look a lot more comfortable in the second half, with an ERA of 3.33 compared to his 7.22 mark in the first half, and considerably improved control. ZiPS projects a sunnier 2026, though one that looks more like that of a no. 2 starter rather than an ace. Alcantara remained on the team despite copious trade rumors this summer, and there’s still a good chance that he’s traded in the very near future.

Edward Cabrera’s arm slot dropped a bit in 2025 and he started relying on his hard sinker more often, and in the end, he had a moderate breakout season. This one makes me happy since I feel like I’d been predicting his breakout for three or four years now! He’s whittled down the walks to acceptable levels and avoided serious injury.

Eury Pérez’s return from Tommy John went better than Alcantara’s, and he generally pitched as well as anyone could expect, outside of a rough run in August. He ended the season on a high note, striking out 11 doomed Mets during the final weekend. ZiPS is pretty comfortable with Robby Snelling, Ryan Weathers, and Braxton Garrett. In fact, if you go down the depth chart of starters the Marlins will actually use in 2026, Ryan Gusto is the only one projected for an ERA worse than 4.50.

The bullpen projects to be very average. Ronny Henriquez is the only reliever projected with an ERA well short of 4.00, but very few of the relievers projects are objectively terrible. While short on big, scary arms, this appears to be an adequate group that won’t prevent the Marlins from pulling off a Wild Card surprise.

Right now, the Marlins look like a .500 team, perhaps a skosh better, unless they’re unexpectedly aggressive in free agency this winter. So… let’s say a .500 team, perhaps a skosh better.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.