2026 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.

Batters

The Yankees aren’t the flashy spenders they used to be, but they still put very good teams on the field year after year, and the memory of their rather down 2023 is now another season further back in the rear view mirror. Most fanbases would be happy with a 94-68 season, but with New York no longer the big dogs when it comes to payroll, there’s an odd portion of the faithful who have come to believe that the team is fundamentally broken and needs to bunt a lot more and stop using analytics, which is a bit like wanting to fix your constantly running toilet by converting your toolshed into an outhouse. In reality, the Yankees are just a normal really good franchise these days.

The offense, of course, starts, ends, and runs through Aaron Judge. I don’t think I need to spend too much time cataloguing his merits, other than to note that he’s already passed the bus test for me — as in, if he got hit by a bus tomorrow, he’s already done enough in his career to be Cooperstown bound as far as I’m concerned. It is a little odd, though, that when we talk about players who have established their Hall of Fame credentials, we always seem to have them meet their demise via some mishap with mass transit.

The rest of the lineup is less exciting — which of course is to be expected since most players are lapped by Judge — but there aren’t really that many holes. ZiPS was always higher on Trent Grisham than most, stubbornly keeping him a two-to-three win player the last few years, so it understandably wasn’t upset when he actually had a really good season. And for their part, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon, and the catchers are a good supporting cast.

At some point, though, the Yankees do kind of need to figure out why so many of their top hitting prospects turn out to be underwhelming; ZiPS at least should be immune to having a built-in Yankees bias. Oswald Peraza has a 51 OPS+ in about a year’s worth of time in the majors (and is an Angel now besides), and Oswaldo Cabrera looks like he’s a good role player rather than someone you want as a full-time starter. Jasson Domínguez is still young enough to have upside, but he looks like a fairly ordinary corner outfielder. And I’m not even sure what to make of Anthony Volpe. His 2025 started with promise, but his defense cratered compared to 2024, and his offense slipped, too. It makes me wonder whether trying to force more loft into his swing is doing him more harm than good, and whether he’s simply a better hitter when he’s driving liners into the alleys. Now, playing through a labrum tear in his left should is a pretty big deal, but it certainly seemed to me like his problems were just as much about approach as they were any physical restrictions.

Looking to the current group down on the farm, I think we can be a little too quick to panic about the strikeout numbers of guys who are crushing the ball in the minors, but I do have to wonder whether Spencer Jones is simply too extreme in this department. ZiPS is kind of on the fence about him.

I’m a little underwhelmed by the depth here. A lot obviously rides on Judge’s health, and most teams would be hard pressed to handle the sudden loss of a player like him, but it does feel like the Yankees’ current depth chart, which appears to have some combination of Cabrera and José Caballero as the Plan B everywhere, could really use some low-key additions. And yes, of course I like making up nonsense songs about Caballero to the Canyonero theme.

Pitchers

Max Fried avoided the yearly odd injury he always seems to get and proved to be the Yankees’ best starter, as he set a career high for innings in a season and accrued 4.8 WAR. He returns as the unchallenged ace of the rotation, and ZiPS is pretty confident about Cam Schlittler remaining a reasonable no. 2 starter.

The rest of the rotation look solid — if everybody’s healthy, that is. And that’s not an idle concern given the injury histories of some of the options here. I suspect anyone assuming that New York will get 160 innings out of Carlos Rodón is bound to be disappointed, and Gerrit Cole is coming off of Tommy John surgery. ZiPS has never really been into Luis Gil or Will Warren, and likes the latter quite a bit less than Steamer does. The projections do like Clarke Schmidt a good bit, but with him having had internal brace surgery just five months ago, he’s not someone you can hope to get 30 starts out of. This rotation is screaming for another arm, and it ought to be a pitcher who has a good health track record, even if that comes at the expense of some performance. To that end, someone like Zac Gallen might be more useful to the Yankees than he would be to most teams.

ZiPS would definitely like to see the Yankees sign an arm or two for the bullpen. The club’s 2.6-WAR forecast isn’t a train wreck, but it’s one of the lowest numbers ZiPS has ever projected for a Yankees bullpen. The projections like David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Fernando Cruz just fine, have a cordial relationship with Jake Bird, Yerry De los Santos, and Brent Headrick, and casually dislike just about everyone else. And yes, I’m a little annoyed that a projection system I created is casting shade on Tim Hill, as I do love a sidearmer.

Right now, the Yankees look like an 85-90 win team, which ought to put them in the thick of the AL East race. As presently constructed, however, the roster’s injury potential probably gives them a lower floor than most of the teams in that win range.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.