2026 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the first team up is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies offense kept right on rolling for another season, once again scoring nearly 800 runs, and finishing with a wRC+ of 109, the team’s best total during this era. As expected, Philadelphia’s rotation was terrific, but the offense contributed more than its fair share to the team’s 96 wins, the second most in baseball.

There are worries lurking on the horizon, however. Trea Turner had what was certainly his best season in Philadelphia, but he’s entering his mid-30s, a very dangerous time for a middle infielder. I was actually surprised to see the drop-off in the ZiPS projection for Turner, but noticed that Steamer was basically projecting the same thing. Also entering his mid-30s is Bryce Harper, who has solidified his chances of a plaque in Cooperstown, but appears to now be off his peak years. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents, and I think both stand a real chance of returning to Philadelphia, though both are also entering the likely decline phases of their careers; indeed, Realmuto probably already has.

That doesn’t mean the Phillies are doomed if they’re content to just put the band back together, but realistically, they’re going to need a lot of work around the edges. ZiPS is decently optimistic about what Justin Crawford could do in a full season, but the projections would really like to see a more convincing answer in left field and a far better situation in right. The rotation means that the team doesn’t need to have an all-world offense to make the playoffs or even win the NL East, of course.

Outside of Crawford and Aidan Miller, ZiPS is thoroughly unimpressed with the in-house options coming up in the next year or two. If the Phillies can bring back their veterans or suitably replace them, and deal with right field, this could be a very good offense again, though probably one with a ceiling just below the game’s elites.

Pitchers

The Phillies rotation was expected to dominate in 2025, and that’s just what it did. Even with a disaster of a year from Aaron Nola and the late-season loss of Zack Wheeler to thoracic outlet syndrome, the starters basically lapped the rest of the league, finishing with a more than 5-WAR edge over the next best team, the Cincinnati Reds. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some serious concerns going forward. Wheeler’s thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t the type that ended Stephen Strasburg’s career, and the team is, by all accounts, at least cautiously optimistic about his recovery. But you still have to consider him riskier than you would have this time last year. ZiPS projects somewhat of a bounce-back for Nola, but that’s not a guarantee, and Ranger Suárez is a free agent.

On the plus side, Cristopher Sánchez is signed through 2030 (with club options) and basically just stuffed a breakout season on top of his first breakout season, while Jesús Luzardo has made good on his potential from back when he was an elite Oakland A’s prospect. But ZiPS still isn’t quite sure what to think about Andrew Painter, and is unfortunately quite sure what to think of Taijuan Walker. A bit more depth here might be helpful, though the Phillies probably don’t need to go crazy given their other needs.

Speaking of, I fully expect Philadelphia to add a few relief arms this offseason. It’s one of the easier things to read from the projections: ZiPS loves the front five of Jhoan Duran, José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks, but then… the void beckons. Still, it won’t take a ton of work to make this an elite bullpen.

As this is the first ZiPS writeup of the offseason, any team projection here is more “where the Phillies are now” than “where the Phillies will be in April 2026.” If the Phillies just rolled with everyone they currently have under contract, they’d probably land somewhere between 82-87 wins and be in contention for a Wild Card. I’d be absolutely shocked if they didn’t do a lot better than that, though, and expect that they’ll again enter the season with a win projection somewhere in the low 90s. I think the Phils will be a good team in 2026, but they are probably starting to run short of chances to win the World Series with their current core.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.