2026 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

The Mariners have had some pretty awesome teams throughout their history, but the World Series has eluded them. Prior to this year, the team had topped out with six-game ALCS exits in 1995 and 2000, and while they missed the Fall Classic again in 2025, they at least set a new high water mark, with a bad seventh inning in Game 7 of their Championship Series against Toronto all that stood between them and a date with the Dodgers. Seattle will largely run it back in 2026, with most of the 2025 team returning for another go.

Looking at the offense, there’s surprisingly little to complain about too strenuously here, and I’m a man known for complaining about things I don’t like. Of the team’s three big hitters who reached free agency this winter — Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, and Jorge Polanco — ZiPS believes that Seattle retained the right one. Naylor provides production at first base that the Mariners can’t replace and have needed for a long time; the M’s have gotten less than one combined win out of their first basemen in nine of the last 20 seasons. Remember how long Evan White was the future of the position? Suárez still projects decently at third, but he’s also five years older than Naylor, and ZiPS sees Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson as being fine at the hot corner, provided the defensive projections are accurate. ZiPS thinks Williamson is one of the minors’ elite defensive third basemen, and that doesn’t clash at all with the scouting reports. Getting that defense is absolutely crucial, though, as he is unlikely to develop into a real plus with the bat, and while there’s more upside with Emerson, he was promoted aggressively this year and may need a consolidation season.

Overall, ZiPS really likes Seattle’s collection of infielders in the high minors, which makes me wonder if one of them, most likely Emerson, will be given the reins in 2027 with J.P. Crawford set to hit free agency after the 2026 season. Amusingly, Emerson gets Crawford as one of his top three comps, and I swear that I didn’t put my thumb on the scale there for effect.

Even with some regression toward the mean, Cal Raleigh projects as a legit MVP candidate in 2026, and I’d argue that Julio Rodríguez is oddly underrated at this point. J-Rod’s top three comps are a little frightening in that they were all young superstars who faded quickly for varying reasons, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. The rest of the lineup projects as average to solidly above. I’m not sure an acquisition like Brendan Donovan, who is said to be available in trade, is necessary, though Donovan specifically could have a lot of value as a 500 plate appearance supersub if that’s the way the Mariners wanted to roll.

In terms of needs, there isn’t a lot that’s truly pressing here, just a few smaller things that might matter on the margins. A right-handed version of Luke Raley, one who could form a more natural platoon with Dominic Canzone and get Naylor his days off against some of the tougher lefties, would be nice, but we’re in real nit-picky territory now. Beyond that, I wouldn’t hate a more interesting catching mate for Raleigh than Andrew Knizner. The Big Dumper is the most important dumper in the majors, and trimming his defensive workload from 120-130 games to 100-110 games makes sense. Now, nobody can actually replace Raleigh’s bat behind the plate, but I’d prefer to see someone like Victor Caratini get 30-40 starts than Knizner. Lastly, another outfielder who could plausibly handle center field would be a worthwhile addition. Jonny Farmelo, who just missed the High-A playing time cutoff for an “official” projection, projects with an OPS+ over 90 in 2026 with more growth to come, but his a .221/.297/.348 triple-slash projection probably means it’s too soon to start thinking about getting him into the mix.

Pitchers

ZiPS also doesn’t see a whole to complain about in the rotation. Luis Castillo looks to be clearly past his peak, but he’s no longer being counted on as the ace, and he, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller make for a fabulous starting five. If there’s a weakness here, it’s in the backup plan if things go wrong: The Mariners are rather light on those fringy, 85-95 ERA+ Triple-A guys who are useful in emergencies. I think there’s some low-key work to be done around the edges, such as rolling the dice on guys with upside who might be willing to sign minor league deals, like Spencer Turnbull.

The projections are quite solid for the front five of the bullpen: Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, the recently acquired Jose A. Ferrer, Eduard Bazardo, and Gabe Speier. ZiPS doesn’t like the back side of the bullpen nearly as much, starting with Carlos Vargas, who gets a much stronger projection in Steamer than he does in ZiPS. Outside of maybe Casey Legumina, ZiPS just really isn’t interested in this part of the team’s relief corps, and if my computer had free will, agency, and individual opinions, it would probably want a good percentage of the remaining cash the Mariners spend in free agency to be used to add an arm or two here.

I know that I make a lot of jokes about the Jerry Dipoto .540 meme, but ZiPS actually sees this team as a good bit better than that going into 2026. Unless the Mariners get bitten by starting pitcher and outfield injuries, where they’re vulnerable depth-wise, this set of projections sees them as a .550-.580 team. That’s enough for them to likely be one of the American League’s elites when I run the official projected standings in March.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.