A Storm Is Brewing in Milwaukee’s Rotation

There is no doubt the Milwaukee Brewers have outperformed expectations in 2024. Although they won the NL Central just last season and made the playoffs in five of the last six years, they were hardly postseason favorites on Opening Day. On the contrary, they were the only 2023 division winners that the majority of our staff did not pick to repeat as division champs; just four of the 25 participants in our preseason predictions exercise picked the Brewers to make the playoffs in any capacity. The only NL Central team with less support was the Pirates. Meanwhile, our playoff odds were only slightly more optimistic about Milwaukee’s chances. The Brewers had 18.1% odds to win their division and a 30.0% chance to make the postseason on Opening Day.

Sixty-seven games have passed between now and then, and over those 67 games, the Brewers have become the indisputable frontrunners in the NL Central. What once seemed like it would be the most closely contested division in the league – all five teams were projected to finish within 2.3 games of one another on April 14 – has become Milwaukee’s to lose. The Pirates, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds are all smushed within half a game of one another, but the Brewers rest atop with a comfortable 6.5-game lead. Their divisional odds are up to 63.0%; their playoff odds, 78.6%. In the NL, only the three powerhouse clubs, the Phillies, Dodgers, and Braves, are more likely to play in October.

While the Brewers are exceeding expectations, it’s not as if they are just getting lucky. They’re 11-10 in one-run games and 3-3 in extra innings. Their actual record matches their BaseRuns expected record, while PythagenPat suggests they deserve an extra win. Finally, and most importantly, it would hardly be fair to say a team as banged up as the Brewers has been the beneficiary of good luck.

Milwaukee’s troubles began last fall, when two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff went under the knife to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. At the time, it seemed unlikely he’d pitch in 2024, and that has since been confirmed. After Woodruff’s injury, it became all the more apparent the Brewers would trade 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes over the winter. In February, general manager Matt Arnold sent Burnes to Baltimore. The final preseason blow for the Brewers came in spring training, when reigning NL reliever of the year Devin Williams suffered a pair of back fractures that will keep him out until around the All-Star break. The Brewers still had the talent to compete in a weak NL Central and a wide-open NL Wild Card race, but after losing two aces and a shutdown closer, it seemed clear that their run as one of the best pitching teams in baseball had come to a close. And somehow, their pitching woes had only just begun:

Three of the five members of the Brewers’ Opening Day rotation are currently on the injured list. That doesn’t even include lefty Wade Miley, who started the season on the IL with shoulder soreness, came back for two starts in April, and then tore his UCL. Tommy John surgery will keep him on the shelf for at least another 10 months, and at 37 years old, he may have thrown the final pitch of his MLB career. The Brewers were counting on Miley, a member of both the 2018 and 2023 division-winning teams, to provide a reliable veteran presence to an otherwise inexperienced rotation; Miley has pitched more than twice as many qualified seasons as everyone else who has started a game for the Brewers this year combined.

Going back to the Opening Day rotation, only Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea are left standing. Jakob Junis landed on the IL with a shoulder injury after one start, while DL Hall joined him with a knee sprain after four. At least Joe Ross lasted into May before a back strain brought him down nine starts into his season.

Junis, who signed a one-year, $7 million contract with Milwaukee this winter, could be nearing his return. His velocity was down during his latest rehab start this past weekend, but he is scheduled to throw a simulated game today, and he could rejoin the Brewers as soon as next week if his velocity comes back up. The 31-year-old has not been a full-time starter since 2019, though he is coming off a strong 2023 season as a multi-inning arm out of the Giants’ bullpen (3.87 ERA, 3.74 FIP in 86 IP). It was always unlikely he would throw 150-plus innings this year, so the silver lining of his extended absence is that the time off might help him stay fresh down the stretch. Then again, he’s a starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter with shoulder problems on the wrong side of 30, so I caution against overthinking any silver lining. To that end, Brewers manager Pat Murphy has suggested Junis could wind up back in the bullpen when he returns. Given the team’s lack of rotation depth, this suggests they are concerned about Junis’ ability to handle a starter’s workload going forward.

Hall joined the Brewers this winter alongside infielder Joey Ortiz (and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick) as the return package for Burnes. While he pitched out of Baltimore’s bullpen down the stretch in 2022 and ’23, he started several games in the minors each year. In 2024, he earned a spot in Milwaukee’s Opening Day rotation. Unfortunately, the southpaw struggled in April; over 16 1/3 innings, he gave up more earned runs (14) than he recorded strikeouts (13). To cap off his poor start, he sprained his knee fielding a bunt in his fourth outing and has been on the injured list ever since. Hall began a rehab assignment about a month ago, but he suffered a setback and has not pitched since May 23. Different doctors have given him different recommendations, but he has decided, for now, to attempt to return without further medical intervention. In this case, that means a rest-and-rehab approach, rather than a platelet-rich plasma injection. Presumably, Hall thinks this is the fastest way for him to get back on the field, but his timeline remains fuzzy. The Brewers recently moved him to the 60-day IL, making him ineligible to return until at least June 20.

The final member of the original starting five, Ross signed a one-year, $1.75 million with the Brewers in December. He had not pitched in the majors since tearing his UCL in August 2021, but he earned a spot at the back end of Milwaukee’s rotation. He put up perfectly serviceable numbers (4.50 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 42 IP) until his latest outing, which he left after one inning with a back strain. The team hasn’t offered many updates on his condition, but he also suffered a setback after throwing a bullpen session this weekend, and there is currently no timeline for his return.

On top of the injuries to Miley, Junis, Hall, and Ross, the Brewers recently lost rookie Robert Gasser to the IL with a flexor tendon injury. Gasser had been a pleasant surprise as a rotation reinforcement, pitching to a 2.57 ERA and 3.35 FIP across five starts (28 IP). He rarely overpowered opposing hitters, but he lasted at least five innings in all of his outings and issued just one walk out of his 114 batters faced. Thankfully, he has not torn his UCL, but medical opinions are mixed on how he should proceed. Team doctors recommended rehab, while Dr. Neal ElAttrache recommended surgery (although he did not rule out rehab as an option). Recently, Gasser was expected to seek a third opinion from Dr. Keith Meister, but the details of that consultation have not yet been reported. In an ominous sound bite, Murphy told reporters “it would probably be safe to say” that Gasser is done for the year, though the skipper clarified he was only speculating. He added, “I hope I’m wrong. I really do.”

Filling two slots in the rotation have been Bryse Wilson, who entered the season as a reliever, and Tobias Myers, a well-traveled rookie whom the Brewers picked up as minor league depth two offseasons ago. Aaron Ashby has also made two starts, though he was optioned to Triple-A last week despite recently throwing five innings of two-run ball against a dangerous Phillies lineup. In addition, the Brewers signed Elieser Hernández to a major league deal over the weekend. Hernández has taken on a long relief role so far, but he started at least six games for the Marlins every year between 2018 and 2022, so he gives Milwaukee a little more rotation depth.

Most recently, the Brewers selected Carlos Rodriguez, their No. 19 prospect, to start against the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. He lasted 3 2/3 innings in his MLB debut, striking out four and walking one. It wasn’t exactly the outing the Brewers hoped for – Murphy would have liked six innings from the rookie – but the manager said afterward that Rodriguez pitched well enough to earn additional opportunities out of the big league rotation.

All things considered, the Brewers have pieced together a relatively successful starting staff, but the qualifiers in that clause are doing a lot of heavy lifting. Their starters currently rank 17th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA but 26th in FIP (4.39). In the NL, only the Marlins and Rockies have gotten fewer WAR from their starting pitchers. Things look even worse when you consider that Gasser — who, again, is likely done for the year after just five starts – ranks second on the team in starting pitcher WAR.

On the bright side, the bullpen has been able to pick up the slack; the Brewers lead the majors in relief innings and reliever WPA. My colleague Jon Becker did a nice job highlighting some of Milwaukee’s stand-out relievers when he wrote about the team’s depth last week. The bullpen’s success might not be entirely sustainable – they rank fifth in the majors with a 3.28 ERA but 17th with a 3.88 FIP – but don’t forget that Williams is set to return around the All-Star break. Unless Mason Miller is traded, the Brewers are going to get the best midseason bullpen upgrade of any contending club. Junis could be another valuable reinforcement for the arm barn.

This team also has a strong defense to help prevent runs, thanks to players like Ortiz, shortstop Willy Adames, and outfielders Blake Perkins and Jackson Chourio. The Brewers are tied for first in the majors in OAA and tied for sixth in FRV. The gap between their OAA and FRV has a lot to do with catcher William Contreras (OAA doesn’t evaluate catchers), who has strangely poor pitch framing stats this season after excelling last year. But considering his successful receiving in 2023 and that the Brewers have ranked among the top four teams in framing in each of the past five seasons, we probably should expect Contreras’ framing to improve soon.

With their solid depth, bullpen, and defense, the Brewers have continued winning ballgames in spite of all their injuries. It certainly helps that they have a deep lineup to provide leads; six of Milwaukee’s everyday players have a wRC+ above 115. At the same time, it’s impossible to ignore the storm brewing in the distance. Even in a best-case scenario where the bats stay hot, the bullpen stays strong, and no one suffers any more injuries or setbacks, the Brewers still have 95 regular season games left to play with a wildly inexperienced starting rotation.

Peralta and Junis are the team’s only starters who have ever pitched a qualified season, and Peralta has only done so once (2023), while Junis hasn’t qualified in half a decade. Ross has the next-most starting experience, but before this season, he hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2021, when he threw a career-high 108 innings in 20 games (19 starts). Hall has never topped 100 innings in a season between the major and minor leagues, and there are serious questions about his ability to stick as a starter at all. Wilson and Myers have filled in admirably thus far, with a combined 4.20 ERA in 15 starts, but their 5.15 FIP is a good reminder of why both have struggled to hold down jobs in the past. Finally, Rodriguez is 22 with one MLB start under his belt. What’s more, his 5.17 ERA and 4.69 FIP at Triple-A indicate he was called up out of necessity, not because he was ready for a full-time role in the bigs. Simply put, it’s difficult to imagine this group can seamlessly handle the workload over the rest of the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs.

The sad truth is that this team could really use Burnes right now. That’s not to say the Brewers should regret the trade; Ortiz has excelled in his everyday role. However, what this team most desperately needs is an ace and an innings eater, and Burnes just so happens to be both. Needless to say, the Brewers’ former ace won’t be available in a deadline deal, but Milwaukee surely will be scouring the market for the next best thing. Erick Fedde of the White Sox seems like a natural fit, though the Brewers certainly won’t be his only suitors.

Perhaps a few other teams have been hit harder by rotation injuries this season – the Rangers and Astros come to mind – but the Brewers take the cake in terms of the sheer number of starters who have suffered injuries since Opening Day. You could fill a rotation with the arms Milwaukee has lost over the past two and a half months; not necessarily a good rotation, but Miley, Gasser, Junis, Hall, and Ross probably wouldn’t be the worst starting five in baseball right now.

Back in April, Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus wrote about the Brewers’ injury pileup, invoking the Ship of Theseus as a metaphor to describe their patchwork pitching staff. Nearly two months later, his analogy is more apt than ever. So far, the Brewers have found enough parts to replace what they’ve lost. Yet, with choppy waters ahead, one question looms like a dark cloud on the horizon: Can this ship withstand the storm?