Albert Pujols Is Enjoying a Renaissance

When the Cardinals re-signed Albert Pujols in late March, few imagined that the transaction would amount to much more than a victory lap and a nice bit of closure for a 42-year-old all-time great. Though he hit well in limited duty in April, Pujols struggled to such a great extent for the next two months that a midseason retirement wouldn’t have been a surprise. Over the past six weeks, however, he’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and on Saturday, he made a bit of history.

In a 16–7 rout of the Diamondbacks in Arizona, Pujols went 4-for-4 with a pair of homers, both off Madison Bumgarner, with exit velocities of 105.4 mph and 107.5 mph. He also ripped a 109.4-mph single off the left field wall against Bumgarner, then capped his night with a softer single off Chris Devenski.

Via his first homer, Pujols surpassed Cardinals legend Stan Musial for second place in total bases. Not second in team history or second since Babe Ruth, or the start of the integration or expansion eras — that’s second all-time, behind only Hank Aaron:

His was a pretty quiet ascent; few noted Pujols passing Bonds in 2021 or Mays earlier this year.

In celebration of Albert Pujols (@PujolsFive) passing Stan Musial (@stanthemaninc) and becoming 2nd All-Time in MLB history in total bases, I have created a progressive timeline for All-Time Career Total Bases!

Huge congratulations to the @Cardinals legend on this feat! ?? pic.twitter.com/BXOLDyQcuS

— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) August 21, 2022

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Pujols ranks so high in total bases given that he’s 10th in hits and fifth in both doubles and homers, but it’s that combination of power and persistence (and a little bit of luck when it comes to time missed) that’s placed him so high. While Pujols lost nearly two-thirds of a late-career season to the pandemic, Musial and Mays each missed a full season of their primes to military service, with the latter losing most of a second one as well.

Additionally, Saturday’s outburst made Pujols the oldest player to collect three multi-homer games in a season, breaking a tie with Bonds (two at 42 years old in 2007) and Carlton Fisk (two at 43 years old in 1991). Pujols also paired up against the Pirates on May 22 and against the Brewers on August 14. Only seven times has a player older than Pujols’ current age had a multi-homer game (Julio Franco, at 46 years, 299 days is the oldest), and only nine times has an older player had at least a four-hit game (Rose had five hits at 45 years, 119 days). Nobody has had a four-hit, two-homer game at an older age:

All of that is pretty cool on its own, but it’s particularly impressive in the context of his season. Including a seventh-inning, pinch-hit single on Sunday, Pujols is now hitting .273/.348/.515 with 13 homers and a 141 wRC+ in 227 plate appearances. Of those, 167 have come as a designated hitter, 48 as a first baseman (where he’s doing a credible Paul Goldschmidt imitation by hitting .333/.396/.595), and 19 as a pinch-hitter. While he’s well short of qualifying for the batting title, Pujols’ wRC+ ranks 22nd in the majors among all players with at least 200 PA, and his slugging percentage is in a virtual tie for 17th. Meanwhile, he’s tied with Nolan Gorman for third on the team in homers behind only Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, not-so-coincidentally the only two Cardinals with a higher wRC+. Oh, and — while acknowledging the lesser sample size — there’s this: in his 10 seasons away from St. Louis, Pujols maxed out with a 133 wRC+ in 2012; he was last above 140 the year before, his final one in St. Louis.

What’s more, Pujols has been en fuego lately. Since August 10, he’s hit .556/.586/1.259 in 29 PA, with two four-hit games and two two-hit games among his six starts. Since the All-Star break, he’s hit .449/.500/.939 (a major league-best 298 wRC+) with seven homers in 54 PA, and since the start of July, he’s hit .378/.429/.769 (229 wRC+) with nine homers in 91 PA, that after ending June with a .198/.294/.336 (83 wRC+) line. Remarkably, his 0.9 WAR is his highest mark since 2015, and his first in the black; by our measurements, he was 3.2 wins below replacement from 2017 to ’21, with -0.2 WAR last year via his overall .236/.284/.433 (89 wRC+) showing. Because Baseball Reference uses higher positional adjustment for designated hitters and first basemen, the story is a little different using their version of WAR; he netted -1.8 WAR from ’16 to ’21 but is at 1.2 this season. For those following the ups and downs of his career total, he’s back above 100 (100.7) after slipping below in ’17 and again in ’21.

Thanks in part to his hot bat, the Cardinals have won seven straight and are 15–3 in August and 19–7 since the All-Star break; in the last of those spans, they’ve turned a one-game deficit in the NL Central into a five-game lead over the Brewers.

It’s not entirely a military secret how Pujols and the Cardinals have accomplished this. They’re following the playbook the Dodgers used last year upon picking him up off the scrapheap after the Angels designated him for assignment, that while taking advantage of the advent of the universal DH. He’s utterly destroying left-handed pitching:

Recall that Pujols hit .294/.336/.603 (146 wRC+) in 146 PA against lefties last year, including .303/.347/.606 (149 wRC+) in 118 PA for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, he hit a sorry .180/.233/.266 (36 wRC+) in 150 PA against righties last year, and a somewhat better but still lousy .186/.287/.319 (79 wRC+) in 129 PA against them this year; fortuitously, his performance has improved despite his share of plate appearances against lefties dropping from 49.3% to 43.2%.

Over the course of his full career, Pujols hasn’t had a particularly wide platoon split; since 2002 (as far back as our splits go, omitting his rookie season), he owns a 150 wRC+ against lefties, 137 against righties. But since 2019, the gap has turned into a canyon, with a 137 wRC+ in 491 PA against lefties and 71 wRC+ in 740 PA against righties. Check out his batted ball splits in that span:

Balls have generally come off Pujols’ bat about two miles per hour faster during this period, but the performance gap hasn’t always been this wide, and it seems likely that sample sizes have something to do with it. Still, it’s very clear that he remains a potent weapon against lefties, and in fact, the Cardinals’ 130 wRC+ against lefties leads the majors; they’re seventh against righties (111 wRC+) as well.

Pujols’ renaissance has rocketed him within striking distance of 700 homers, a plateau previously reached only by Ruth (714), Aaron (755), and Bonds (762). Unless he can maintain this sizzling second-half clip, adding another eight homers seems unlikely; ZiPS projects him for four, which would tie him with Rodriguez (696) for fourth. Pujols has maintained that he’s not focused upon his ranking or the milestone and insists that he’s done after this year. After Saturday’s game, he told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, “I’m still going to retire, no matter whether I end up hitting 693, 696, 700, whatever. I don’t get caught up in numbers. If you were going to tell me 22 years ago that I would be this close, I would have told you that you’re freakin’ crazy. My career has been amazing.”

He added, “If I can’t hit 70 homers [a total that would match that of Bonds], I’m not coming back. No, I’ve had enough. I’m glad I made the announcement this was it when I signed. Really, I wouldn’t change a thing.”

After the disappointment of Pujols’ tenure with the Angels, who are themselves even more of a vortex of disappointment lately than usual, his rebound in St. Louis is allowing him to go out on a higher note. Even if he can’t maintain this clip, he’s already collected enough highlights to make his final season a fitting testament to a legendary career.