Another Bad Start for the Rangers Bullpen

The Texas Rangers are 2-5, which is not good. Consolation comes in two flavors. One, so early! Who cares! Two, the Mariners are 2-7. The Blue Jays are 1-6. The Cardinals are 2-6, and the Giants are 3-6. Baseball will find its level, and its level will have the Rangers winning at a clip higher than 29%. So, yeah. Still, it’s a fan’s place to overreact to the season’s beginning, and it’s perfectly reasonable to wonder why the Rangers have been so bad. Let’s just take a look at something:

Yeah, that’ll do it. By WPA, Sam Dyson has already been a win worse than the next-worst pitcher. As a matter of fact, according to the best research I could do, Dyson has the lowest WPA on record through a team’s first seven games. It’s a weird stat, but a telling one, and in case you don’t love WPA, let’s go old-fashioned. Dyson’s tied for first (last?) in baseball in runs allowed, while being tied for 138th in batters faced. Bad. Dyson has been a drag, and he was a drag again Tuesday night.

The Rangers lost to the Angels, 6-5, thanks to a walk-off bunt. Dyson inherited a 5-2 ninth-inning lead. As is often the case, the big blown save happened due to a combination of poor pitching and poor luck. Here’s how Danny Espinosa went deep:

Sinker over the middle, but at least at the lower boundary of the zone. Not a horrible pitch. Here’s how Yunel Escobar doubled:

It was a regular ground ball against a changeup, and if that’s Adrian Beltre, instead of Joey Gallo, maybe Escobar’s out. Here’s how Mike Trout doubled:

Really good sinker, low and away. Mike Trout covers everything. So be it. This sinker followed a pair of two-strike sinkers that just missed in a similar area. Against Trout, Dyson pitched his ass off, and Trout just burned him by being the best. Some bad luck, you can accept. Now, I don’t want to let Dyson completely off the hook. Before Trout doubled, Kole Calhoun flew out, against this:

Terrible! And the game-tying single was hit by Albert Pujols, and here’s what Dyson threw:

For Dyson, the inning could’ve been better. It also could’ve been worse. Pujols could’ve won it right there. Ultimately, Dyson did little to inspire any confidence, and it would be a surprise if he gets the Rangers’ next save opportunity. Even if there’s no permanent demotion, Dyson’s confidence could use a boost, and the Rangers could use a break.

It’s not right to say we’re only noticing this because it’s the start of the season. You always notice meltdowns by closers. But, of course, if this were the middle of the season, Dyson might find a quicker route to forgiveness. Last year, through June 21, Daniel Hudson had a 1.55 ERA. He allowed 31 runs — 31 runs! — over his next 9.2 innings. From August 5 on, Hudson had a 1.66 ERA. Dyson can recover from this. The memory, though, is going to linger, and there is some reason for concern.

I mean, any time a pitcher allows 11 runs in three innings, there is some reason for concern. Yet Dyson also has three walks and two strikeouts. He’s generated just 41% grounders. And according to Brooks Baseball, Dyson’s average fastball is down about two miles from where it was in each of the past two Aprils. That’s enough of a drop to notice, and Dyson himself says he’s struggled to keep his sinker around the knees. Maybe it’s all just mechanical, but fixing mechanics isn’t like flipping a switch.

Dyson has been a big glaring problem. The biggest problem on the team, of course, on account of his visibility. And yet the bullpen issues don’t stop there. Jeremy Jeffress has struck out just one batter so far, and according to Brooks Baseball, his average fastball is down about two and a half miles from where it was in each of the past two Aprils. His fastball dipped toward the end of last year and it hasn’t recovered.

And, Matt Bush? His shoulder ain’t right. He’s left the team to get treatment, and while he apparently fought similar issues a year ago, when he ran a 2.48 ERA, no team would choose to have its potential closer-in-waiting working through discomfort. I don’t know if this’ll turn out to be mild or severe, but at the very least, this means uncertainty, and the season’s only just started. Bush might struggle in particular to throw on back-to-back days.

Add in the fact that Keone Kela is in the minors, thanks to a disciplinary problem, and you’ve got major bullpen trouble. And this bullpen was already almost certain to get taxed, given the state of the Rangers’ rotation. Heck, at this point, even Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish have struggled to throw consistent strikes, not that they don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. But the Rangers pitching staff can handle only so many question marks at a time. The take-home message should still be that it remains too early to panic, yet the worry level’s probably bumped up a few degrees. The Rangers could use a couple cake-walks to put their minds at ease.

For good news, or for at least helpful reminders: Early in 2015, the Ranger bullpen was unreliable, and Neftali Feliz lost his closing job. The bullpen got much better as the season wore on, and the Rangers made the playoffs. Early in 2016, the Ranger bullpen was again unreliable, and Shawn Tolleson lost his closing job. The bullpen got much better as the season wore on, and the Rangers made the playoffs. They had the AL’s best record! The recent-history Rangers have overcome hurdles like this, and that’s an encouraging way to spin a discouraging state of affairs. This isn’t unfamiliar territory.

It’s just that there are questions that need answers. Can Sam Dyson be fixed? Can Jeremy Jeffress be fixed? Will Matt Bush be okay? Should the team turn to Jose Leclerc? The season isn’t yet close to going off the rails. Yet an unstable bullpen’s probably the fastest way to cause a disaster.