Archie Bradley Impressed Last Night, Still Has Work To Do

When our other prospect writers submit scouting reports, I will provide a short background and industry consensus tool grades.  There are two reasons for this: 1) giving context to account for the writer seeing a bad outing (never threw his changeup, coming back from injury, etc.) and 2) not making him go on about the player’s background or speculate about what may have happened in other outings.

The writer still grades the tools based on what they saw, I’m just letting the reader know what he would’ve seen in many other games from this season, particularly with young players that may be fatigued late in the season. The grades are presented as present/future on the 20-80 scouting scale and very shortly I’ll publish a series going into more depth explaining these grades.   -Kiley

As the entire internet seems to know, Arizona Fall League kicked off yesterday and I scooted over to Salt River Fields at Talking Stick for the nightcap that featured an Archie Bradley v. Tyler Glasnow pitching matchup.

Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks (Arizona Fall League)

You can ready Kiley’s full report on Bradley in the full prospect rankings for Arizona.

Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, Future Value: 60   –Kiley

Bradley has the prototypical workhorse starter’s build at every bit of 6-foot-4, 235 lbs. and a low effort delivery that adds to scouts’ confidence about his ability to eat innings. Bradley doesn’t repeat said delivery, however, and suffers control and command issues that are primarily caused by release point variation. Both are below average. I’d love to look at how relaxed and easy Bradley’s delivery is and project the control and command to average but he just turned 22 and we’ve all been waiting for his strike throwing ability to come along since he was drafted. I can only project it to fringe average.

The good news for Bradley is that his fastball/breaking ball combination is frontline hellacious. The fastball sat 93-96 with arm side run and is a true plus-plus pitch. There were even some instances last night where it featured natural cut when Bradley worked to the glove-side part of the plate. It was an abbreviated outing for Bradley and I have to question whether he’s be able to sustain the bountiful 94s and 95s he was pumping in with ease. The catch-playing nature of his delivery is evidence that he may in fact be able to do so. Good news for a guy coming off of a season abbreviated by an elbow strain.

Bradley’s low-80s curveball also flashed 65 with sharp downward movement but was not consistently that good, maybe a half grade below for most of the night, good enough to garner plenty of swings and misses. The other concern for Bradley right now is a lack of viable changeup. Bradley’s coast in like BP fastballs, about 88mph with no tumble or run. Bradley lacks a feel for the pitch, even from a strike-throwing standpoint, and the few he did get over the plate were had by hitters. He only threw a couple cambios and I expect to see more as the AFL carries on. It is a developmental league, after all.

Between the command issues and lack of a third pitch this deep into the game for Bradley, I can see why doubts about his ability to eat through a big league lineup three or four times are beginning to creep in. The juicy raw ability is very enticing, however. His #2 starter ceiling remains but the chances of him attaining it are not as high as they were last year at this time. More likely, for me, he’s a #3 type starter (if either the changeup or control out live my projections a bit) or a high-leverage reliever (if neither do)

Longenhagen’s Grades: Fastball: 70/70  Curveball: 55/65  Changeup: 40/45  Command: 40/45  FV: 60 

 

Matt McPhearson, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Rookie Level AZL)

McPhearson was one of the premium athletes in the 2013 draft class, hailing from a high school in a state not known for producing high draft picks: Maryland.  The D’Backs gave him $500,000 in the 4th round and he’s played two years of rookie ball with the expected results: lots of speed and defense, some feel to hit and get on base, but very little power due to his slender 5’8 frame. McPhearson will move up a level next year and his inconsistent swing mechanics still need some work to unlock the line-drive slasher approach that could make him into a big league regular.

 Hit: 20/35, Game Power: 20/30, Raw Power: 35/40, Speed: 70/70, Fielding: 50/60, Arm: 50/50+, FV: 40   –Kiley

McPhearson has three plus or better tools; he’s one of the two or three fastest players I’ve ever timed down the line. I’ve seen him run down missiles launched into outfield gaps that seemed destined for extra bases. I’ve seen him uncork frozen ropes from centerfield to third base to erase base runners. McPhearson is one of the most entertaining players I’ve ever had the pleasure of scouting. And I don’t think he’s a big leaguer.

McPhearson is diminutive (just 5-foot-8 and 164 lbs.) and explosive, clocking in between 3.94 and 4.02 from the batter’s box to first. Those times are comfortably plus-plus and the speed plays on defense as well, where McPhearson traverses an expanse greater than that of his home state (Woo! Maryland jokes!) and profiles as plus in center field or plus-plus in left, where he also saw time this year. While McPhearson is just fringe-average defensively right now due to some circuitous routes and still-developing feel, he’s just 19 and has a long developmental path on which he can improve his feel for the position. The requisite skills are here for him to be a special defender.

I’ve seen the arm flash 65 but it was a throw that McPhearson was able to throw his entire body into. He won’t always have that luxury. When you grade the arm in the aggregate, throwing from all sorts of different platforms, the arm looks more like a 55.

Things get fatal when we look at the bat. McPhearson doesn’t use his lower half very efficiently, the swing is handsy and slappy and the bat path is not conducive of contact or power, almost downward sloping. He’s a future 30 hit, 20 power guy for me based on what I’m seeing right now. Of course, just as McPhearson has time to polish up his defense, so too can he work on his swing. It takes a special kind of neuromuscular control to manifest any potential changes and isn’t something that can simply be done with just reps. If the swing gets a facelift of Matt Hagen proportions then it will be time to re-evaluate. Until then, this package is too much like the woebegone Tyson Gillies for me to project any sort of impact.

With a rapid evolution of defensive valuation underway, it’s possible McPhearson tickles somebody’s fancy and finds his way to the big leagues as a replacement outfielder and pinch running specialist the same way Terrence Gore has. But if he can’t hit, and I don’t suspect he will, he’s not an everday player.

Longenhagen’s Grades: Hit: 20/30, Power: 20/20, Speed: 70/70, Fielding: 45/60, Arm: 55/60, FV: 40