Astros Acquire Acceptably Healthy Carlos Gomez
Here’s a trade that’s as much about a trade that didn’t happen as it is about itself. Yeah, it’s independently interesting that the Brewers traded Carlos Gomez to the Astros. It’s made all the more interesting by the fact that the Brewers also traded Carlos Gomez to the Mets, except that they didn’t, officially. The Mets, as you’re probably aware, claim they didn’t like Gomez’s medicals. Gomez and the Brewers said there’s nothing wrong in there. The Astros evidently didn’t see enough to convince themselves Gomez isn’t worth a barrel of prospects. So now it’s basically about the Astros’ evaluation vs. the Mets’ evaluation, and it was the Astros who freaked out about Brady Aiken.
Could be, it wasn’t actually about health. Maybe the Mets didn’t want to take on money, and we’ll see if they do anything else before Friday afternoon. Could be, also, there are just valid differences of opinion, since passing a physical isn’t always black and white. A few offseasons ago, Grant Balfour passed a Rays physical after failing the Orioles’ version. Teams look at things differently. I don’t know how right or wrong the Mets really are.
Here’s what I do know: another team in the race has determined Gomez should be able to help them. That team is paying a lot for the privilege. For the Mets, Gomez could’ve solved two problems. Instead, he’ll try to solve problems for the Astros, and honestly, this package is probably a better one for the Brewers, too, compared to Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores. The Brewers had a trade fall through, and then they made a better one. I don’t mean to make this about the Mets, but they’re the most fascinating party in all of it.
I should probably give you some details. Gomez is going to the Astros, but he isn’t going alone. He’s bringing Mike Fiers with him, and he’s also bringing an international signing slot, maybe in a large envelope. Here are the four players going in the other direction:
Phillips has rightly been identified as the prize. The 21-year-old has carried much of his breakout success into Double-A, and he might be able to stay in center field. Still, there’s more here. Santana has had his cups of coffee laced with acid, so no one’s really sure what those meant, but the tools are present and he’s hit the living crap out of the ball in Triple-A. Hader’s started to perform against advanced competition, and he’s a 21-year-old lefty. And Houser has enough life in his arm to be a reliever down the road. All four of these players could play in the bigs. Phillips would be a No. 1 prospect in several systems, and Santana’s about as interesting as a player gets.
As pleased as the Brewers might be, though, the bigger story’s about the team in the race. For the Astros, Carlos Gomez makes all the sense in the world, and he helps to round out a pretty complete roster. On top of that, Gomez is pretty cheap next year, too, relative to his ability, so this isn’t just a Scott Kazmir-like rental. This is the Astros, who are good now, plugging in one of baseball’s best center fielders. This is the Astros going on the offensive. Contention came quicker than everyone expected. The Astros are responding to that.
For their part, the Astros continue to say good things about Jake Marisnick. I’m sure they’re rather fond of him. But, remember that point, earlier this year, where you looked at the leaderboards and thought, “wow, I guess Jake Marisnick can hit now?” Ever since that point, he hasn’t hit. He’s been a nightmare since May, at the plate if not in the field, and so Gomez is a major upgrade. Preston Tucker has been a nice surprise, and eventually George Springer will come back. The Astros are going to have a quality outfield.
And no matter what they do the rest of this year, it could be back next year, along with most everyone else. Kazmir is going to be a free agent. Maybe the Astros don’t try to re-sign him. Some relievers might be free agents. Colby Rasmus will be a free agent. But if they wanted, the Astros could return most of their depth chart. It’s the depth chart that’s put them in first place. They can return the whole infield. Save for Rasmus, they can return the whole outfield. Kazmir leaves, but now the Astros have Fiers, who’s simultaneously 30 years old and under team control forever. We knew the Astros would arrive as more than a flash in the pan, and it’s like the window just opened itself. Nothing had to be forced. The Astros are now comfortably acting like a team that knew it’d be a buyer from the start. It’s a convincing lie.
Gomez is the sexy addition, but Fiers is worth at least a paragraph. There are two factors. One, Fiers has five remaining years of control, including this one, so he’s a cheap starting pitcher. Everybody wants those. But while it might not be so easy to fit Fiers into the picture immediately, this is, again, about thinking ahead. Fiers gives the Astros some flexibility as they think about monitoring innings down the stretch. He has both started and relieved, so he’s flexible, and while his repertoire might not be enough to pull a scout from the concession stand, he’s sitting on a sub-4 career ERA, with other numbers to match. If you pay attention to K-BB%, Fiers is actually just above Michael Wacha. No, that doesn’t mean Fiers is better than Michael Wacha. We’re just at the point where the numbers demonstrate it’s safe to take Fiers seriously.
So the Astros are paying, but they’re paying for talent and control. That control buys them a little extra time to re-fill the system, that’s currently being depleted. At some point, we’ll have to stop thinking of the Astros’ farm system as being stocked, since they keep promoting and subtracting, but the whole point of a farm system is to boost the major-league product, and with that in mind 2015 has been an absurd success. When a team starts winning, priorities always have to shift a little to the shorter-term.
The Brewers are right to be pleased. In almost no time at all, they recovered from the first Gomez trade catastrophe. They got a return that’s probably better, and with the Brewers playing for nothing, it’s a good opportunity for Domingo Santana to try to be a menace. As tough as he is to project, it’s easy to see how he could be a star. It’s maybe easier to see how Phillips could be a star, if a bit less flashy. Phillips feels fairly safe. Santana’s a mystery box you find in the home of a rich and eccentric dead uncle. That one’s all about your own risk tolerance.
And, there’s Hader. And, there’s Houser. The Brewers had to do this. They did well. It’s a start, and it’s a strong one.
It’s also a strong step forward for the Houston Astros, who, in the year 2015, could really and truly win the World Series, the very one we’re always talking about. Maybe it won’t come to be. Lots of good teams out there. But 2016 doesn’t look markedly worse. This seems like one of those organizational turnarounds we won’t be able to really appreciate until the winter. Maybe, though, it’ll hit us sooner than that.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Will Santana be up and playing right away?
After Parra goes, I don’t know why not
Where would he play? Khris Davis in Left, Braun in right.
If there are 3 outfield spots available and two are filled, how many spots are left?
1!
Let’s try that again together:
1…2…3 minus 2 equals… 1!
There is one spot open for Domingo Santana!
Santana is not a CF by any stretch of your rather wild imagination, Big Bird
@Justin – does it really matter in a lost season if you attempt a Padres type OF defense? Or sit Davis/Braun often?
Because I will never let the fans awake from the Logan Schafer Nightmare.
well written write up on the quicks!
“Santana has had his cups of coffee laced with acid, so no one’s really sure what those meant”
Could someone explain this for me, is this a reference to the “boom” or “bust” potential, or is this a real incident?
Astros fan with no actual scouting ability. My take on Santana is that he’s basically got all tools except for the hit tool. Kind of a poor version of Joey Gallo. If he could ever figure out how to at least make some contact at the major league level, he’d stick. I don’t know what his future holds, super high ceiling with very little chance to reach that would be where I’d peg him.
spot on, he can do everything except make consistent contact. There are plenty of guys like that over the years. I normally think of Mike Cameron as the classic example of this.
BTW- Cameron- career 249 hitter over 17 seasons, was a pretty consistent 20 hr/ 20sb player in his prime (99-08). Alfonso Soriano would be another guy in this mold (only much louder tools less the hit tool). Basically find a guy that can steal bases and hit homers but cannot hit over 250, and you have your upside for Santana. There is also a lot of those guys that never figure out how to hit 220, and no matter how good the other tools are, 220 is impossible to work around.
Chris Carter hit .223/.320/.451 with a 12 BB%, 36.2 K%, and .311 babip, and that was worth 112 wRC+. A .220 average is not impossible to work around; in fact, it can be good.
I don’t think Santana reaches those walk and power levels, but he’s consistently put up well above average babips throughout the minors and it’s not too hard to see him becoming a .245/.325/.445 hitter with average or better defense and average base running. That’s a 3 WAR player these days.
Baubo, you are not missing anything that a trained scout would not. He is a classic AAAA player. He is fun to dream on, but doesn’t make enough contact.
I believe he’s just referring to the fact that Santana has struck out like a drunk Adam Dunn in his short major league stints so far. Definitely far too few PAs to reach any conclusions. I do wish it referred to a real incident, though.
Not a real incident. He’s been called up the majors briefly twice (for a “cup of coffee”) and his performance during those call-ups has been lousy, including a .056 OBP in 17 PA last year and a 40.5% strikeout rate in 46 PA this year. That’d be the metaphorical acid. But those sample sizes are obviously minuscule.
Thank you, that makes sense! I figured it may be a metaphor, especially after I google searched “domingo santana lsd coffee incident” only to be led right back here to this very same web page, this Jeff Sullivan article.
I agree that this was florid writing that was confusing to people unfamiliar with Santana’s history, but ultimately I don’t think it meant anything other than that he’s been lousy in very brief MLB appearances. Probably in part a reference to his career strikeout rate of >50%.
Cups of coffee laced with acid = The Marc Krauss Experience
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7577&position=1B/OF
Scouts are mystified by Santana, based on what i’ve read. He is both elite and not elite, at the same time.*
*courtesy of PFT commenter
Nice article, but I believe I found one mistake: Cots has Mike Fiers with only 4 years of team control after this one: 1 year pre-arbitration and 3 years arbitration-eligible.
Which is what Jeff said, so what’s the mistake?
tough to say the Astros system is depleted when they added 3 of the top 10 players in the 2015 draft.
This now makes 4 top 100 prospects no longer in that system
Correa is called up, McCullers is called up, Vincent Valazques is called up, Phillips Foltynewitz and Santana are traded. (hader was a preseason to 10 prospect on their team too)
That right there represents enough top talents for 2 teams.
With those guys gone, it is even nuttier to realize they still have Appel, Bergman, Cameron, Reed, and a bunch of other solid prospects. That system has simply just moved from the strongest by a mile, to about average depending on your opinion of those 4 (appel has not really developed well, Daz is a complete wild card, there are still plenty that doubt what reed has done is real).
ahh the benefits of multiple first overall picks.
They had 2 firsts this year and a compensation pick. The compensation came as part of a trade and not even theirs.
Plus, one first also came at the cost of losing Aiken and Nix (equivalent of 1st and 3rd) from a previous draft. So overall they didn’t exactly came out ahead. If they had known about Aiken’s issues pre-draft, this is more likely Rodon + Tucker + slot compensation pick instead of Bregman + Tucker + Cameron.
Now, having high first rounders with super large bonus pools? That has definitely been a key to the rebuilt farm system.
i meant first overall as in carlos correa way back when, allowing them to overslot later, which because they picked first then meant they got first go every round after.
Its on who you ask, but Folty and Santana really look like fringy players at this point. The Astros had multiple prospects break out this season in the minors. Notably Nottingham, however Joe Musgrove might be the best performance of the year and should be right up there as a top 100 prospect. Michael Feliz has also done nothing to hurt his stock, as a mid rotation work horse. Fisher at this point is also probably a higher rated talent than Santana. They also continue to have 4th outfielder prospects just sitting in AAA that most teams would love to have in LJ Hoes, Robby Grossman, and I assume Jake Marisnick now.
Also Colin Moran was an extremely young college pick. He is now just 22 years old, with an advanced hit tool and patience at the plate. His raw power doesnt match his game power. Moran is a prospect that is getting slept on because he gets comped to other college players. He still has a lot of time to develop into the elite talent a lot people think he is.
I like moran, but he looks too much like an alberto callapso type player. at 3rd that really does not play on a playoff team.
i do agree, the orginizational depth is really great here on guys close to the bigs. I think they were hoping they had more than depth in Hoes and Marisnik, but that is not likely the case (both look like 4th OF types). Moran is overlooked, but i have seen him on plenty of top 100 lists this past year to say that i doubt he is under rated.
Just think if JD Martinez had broken out on this team….
I don’t even think Colin Moran’s parents would consider him an ‘elite talent’…
Moran is .303/.363/.436 in the Texas league with 60 raw power. It just doesnt show up in games. He turned 22 years old at the beginning of the season. He posted monster OBP at UNC. Hes got plenty of time to grow into a Carpenter or a Craig (when he could hit)
I dont like when people say JD Martinez was cut by the Astros, yada yada. JD Martinez and the Tigers deserve big credit, because his swing is completely different. He is a different player than the Astros had.
I think you forgot a few #lolmets
They made a good decision to package a controllable pitcher with Gomez, and they should consider doing the same when they trade Lind tomorrow.
Trading Gomez is the white flag, kicking off a complete rebuild, so there’s no reason not to trade the entire rotation right now, too. None of their top 5 (counting Fiers) will be around by the time this team is good again. They should put Nelson/Peralta together with Lind and try to get another Phillips-level prospect.
Lucroy moves this winter or maybe a year from now if they want him to keep rebounding. Segura could move anytime, but he’s probably not worth enough right now to bother trading.
You know Nelson has five full years of control left, right? No rebuild in the entire history of baseball has been planned to last 6 years of more.
I think you need to plan on a rebuild taking 5-10 years. This is year 5 of the Astros rebuild, and most people are surprised it’s worked this quickly.
I also wouldn’t hang onto a 26 year-old middle rotation starter for even 3 years of cellar-dwelling.
I think this is year 3 for the cubs and year 4 for the stros. Granted neither had the contract that is ryan braun. You could always call the dodgers and give them a prospect to take it.
The Astros spent 4 in the cellar before this year and 3 in a row as the undisputed worst in baseball. So this is year 5 of the rebuild, and next year is year 6. I’m not calling them “built” until they sustain this success into next year.
For the Cubs, it was 5 awful years before this year, so this is is year 6.
KC only had one season with more than 75 wins from 1996-2012…… So they’re lucky they didn’t get contracted. /sarcasm
While the cubs were bad they were trying. The real rebuilds started when theo got to chicago and luhnow to houston.
Both Theo Epstein and Jeff Luhnow took their current jobs before the 2012 season, so for both the Cubs and Astros it is year 4; and for both, they arrived early.
In order to position themselves for arriving early, they combined for 208, 207 and 181 losses.
So yes, it can take 5 years to rebuild and yes, trading a cost controlled pitcher like Nelson for assets that mature later on the win curve makes the most strategic sense.
It’s not 100% right to say the rebuild started with Luhnow. Ed Wade began the process mid-2011 with the Pence (yay) and Bourn (oof) trades. Ed Wade deserves most of the scorn heaped upon him for pushing off the rebuild 2-3 years too long, but he did in fact eventually start it. Luhnow of course went with his famous / infamous “You call this a rebuild? I’ll show you a rebuild!” approach, so it’s easy to forget.
Is it me or did the Astros give up less for Gomez and Fiers than the Mets were going to for just Gomez ?
Florea and Wheeler are a level above prospect.
Using that logic, Brendan Ryan is worth more than Corey Seager.
Brendan ryan, of the 840 ops!
Which Astro prospect is as good as Corey Seager ?
How old is Brendan Ryan ? 33 ?
It’s not just that they are major leaguers, it’s that they are prospect age and already in the majors.
Even if 2 of the Astro 4 end up being as good as Flores and Wheeler, they still got Fiers.
No, it’s just you. Phillips is a monster OF prospect.
Zack Wheeler will have just 3.5 control yrs by the time he gets back on the mound, and Wilmer Flores is a spare part.
I think the thinking here is:
Wheeler is a 2-4 WAR pitcher who has shown he is there so long as he returns from TJ. 3.5 years at 3 WAR is roughly 10 WAR. Discounted to about 75% based on risk of not returning (assuming a pretty strong chance of being 100% again, on down the line to wash out). He would represent about 7 war on the rest of his controlability. The injury also will keep down his arbitration awards. So converted to surplus value he is worth somewhere in the 40-50m range (value less anticipated arbitration values).
Flores has upside, but yeah, not worth a whole lot here vs. the other guys.
Phillips is a top 25 prospect, but they are generally veiwes as only offering about 20-30m in surplus value. Add the surplus value of a hader (likely closer to what Toussant was worth- about 6-8m), and then veiw Friers as a wash with what was left.
This is a younger package with a much wider range of possible results, but i think it is actually a similarly valued package, it is just easier to be in love with the prospects.
There is a decent chance that the Astros can sign Kazmir. He’s a hometown guy and the Astros have plenty of salary room. If they like the guy at seaon’s end, I don’t think the Astros will get out bid. And then, with the money similar, I think Kaz will sign with the home town team.
Yes, now that we are getting TV revenue we can expand the team payroll, plus we are going to be saving $12M on Rasmus and Carter as I don’t see either player on the team next season. If Reed takes over at 1B the infield will make around $15M combined with the OF around $12M.
So you are looking at around $30M for the 13 position players.
Rasmus in a FA at the end of 2015. Carter is arbitration eligible.
his massive amount of home runs makes him a risky guy to make a huge sum in arbitration. I could see him being non tendered.
Carter might get DFA’d by the end of the day.
Is there any chance Fiers improves while in Houston or, at 30, is this just who he is at this point?
Probably, Brent Strom is a very good pitching coach and can normally get the most out of a pitcher.
Also, Fiers was much better away from Miller Park. (2nd worst park via park factor)
FIP 2014
Home: 3.33
Road: 2.40
FIP 2015
Home: 4.76
Road: 2.70
Oh yeah, he’s practically the ‘Houston SP archetype’ save Lance McCullers II.
When it comes to medical evaluations, I can assure you that the Mets are always wrong
So it’s quite possible that the Royals may need to get past Los Dos Carlos II and Zack Greinke to get that World Series ring.
Correa is no Febles
Very true.
Two more data points for evaluating team physicians. At this rate, it will take 1,485 years before we can see mlbMDgraph.com
If only we can see summaries like this.
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/notgraphs-a-valedictory-statement/#comment-327473
Jeff Luhnow is getting to a point where you might want to not trade with him.
He is really cleaver, and really works a lot of the angles that he sees (would you rather have Buxton or correa and McCullers….). but in trades he has not been magical. Houston has had their share of bad trades
This one makes a heckuva lot of sense though imo.
Funny you ask that James because a lot of Houston fans were saying that for the longest time. RE: Correa + McCullers + Rio Ruiz > Buxton
But the industry experts didn’t see it that way and the consensus, until this year, was “No, I’d rather just have Buxton”.
that also goes into a few things possibly, Luhnow understanding that even if Mccullers became a reliever, he was still going to be worth a lot of wins potentially. It also is the scouting the Astros have in place, knowing the pedigree of Correa and Mccullers. Ruiz had a strong so cal track record and would have been gone way earlier if it wasnt for a blood clot ruining his senior season. Another is the scouts and or coaches noticing that they could retool Mccullers mechanics. Mccullers bought in. It wasnt just was on the field with Mccullers and Correa, its what is between their ears. The next thrower like Mccullers that comes along wont last until the comp round anymore after this.
A lot of these same fans also felt for a long time Appel was the right pick over Bryant. I think it’s just homers being homers.
Personally I’ve always felt that Correa and Buxton were on the same level, but because Correa was younger and at a lower level, carried more risk, so ranking him below Buxton made sense. And that McCullers made it definitely a better move.
Appel vs. Bryant OTOH, I started having doubts when Appel couldn’t handle Lancaster and Bryant started mashing.
remember in those leaked texts where it said the Pirates would give up Glasnow, for Bud Norris…….. god damnit
Are we really sure that he’s healthy? After stealing 30-40 bases the last few years, he only has 7 so far this year. And only 2 of those are in June/July. His defense has regressed to barely-above-average, and his bat has regressed as well. And he was quoted as saying his hip was an issue.
If you’re trading for him – especially with the packages the Mets and Astros offered – you’re not looking for the Gomez that has played so far this year. You’re hoping for him to turn into the star he was in 2013/2014. It seems clear that the Mets’ medical staff thought his hip injury would prevent that from happening over the next two months, and the Astros’ medical staff thought otherwise. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Very true. Gomez is still an extremely under paid player in 2016 as well though. Fiers, years of control, I believe made the Astros cave on this. Marisnick is graded out at the same defense as Gomez this year as well. There is no drop in the glove on the Astros end.
I just woke up…Carlos Gomez is going from the NL to the AL?! WTF?!
You have to think the Astros were asking about Will Smith as well. He is the left handed piece needed in their pen. The price must have been steep, or they have something in play for another reliever.