August Trade Targets to Fight the Post-Deadline Blues
There’s always this moment of reflective depression for me, after July’s non-waiver trade deadline passes and all the autopsies are done, when I wistfully look over the players not traded and sigh at the possibilities that never came to pass. Trades are fun after all, and let’s be honest, they’re also raw meat for loudmouth internet commentators like myself.
August isn’t a completely dead month, however, and trades can be made, especially when there’s a large contract in the mix. Woe be unto the teams that recklessly make a claim on a player with a contract they do not wish to have. And with many of the currently contending, large-payroll teams being run in a manner that demonstrates their cognizance of MLB’s soft salary cap — let’s call things what they are — there’s an opportunity to sneak smaller contracts through in addition to some of the more expensive ones for players that can help a team while not necessarily being worth their contracts.
In 2017 alone, you had Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Yonder Alonso, Curtis Granderson, and Mike Leake, among others, all notable players that were able to be moved due at least in part to contractual reasons. It’s weird looking at it now, but Verlander completely cleared waivers and the Tigers ate some of his contract to get better prospects than they would have otherwise.
As in most years, there are a number of players who are extreme risks to claim on waivers, as their current teams likely will just say “Done. Thanks!”
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN
Jordan Zimmermann has a full no-trade clause (partial after this season), and while nobody would give him 2 years, $45 million with a partial no-trade, essentially what his contract is for 2019-2020, he’s shown enough this year that if the Tigers are willing to eat enough of his contract, he can help a team in desperate straits. A 4.03 FIP isn’t anything to scoff at, and he’s been effective enough to get his strikeout rate back to his career-highs after a K/9 of 5.6 and 5.8 the past two seasons. He even has a career-best for contact percentage allowed.
JOSE IGLESIAS
With $2 million remaining on his contract and most of the contending teams addressing shortstop already, it’s unlikely Jose Iglesias is claimed capriciously simply given that there’s no team that would likely make him the starter for the final two months of the season. However, a team like the Brewers or Phillies with some weak defenders in the infield ought to have at least some interest in having Iglesias in the mix.
FRANCISCO LIRIANO
I swear, I’ll talk about non-Tigers soon. Even in a lousy season as a starter, lefties have only gone 7-for-62 with two homers (.113/.214/.210) against Francisco Liriano, so using him as a lefty specialist remains a possibility. The Astros liked said possibility enough to give up an actual prospect in Teoscar Hernandez for Liriano in 2017, and while Liriano won’t fetch anyone of that value, there ought to be some interest in him for that limited role.
SHIN-SOO CHOO
Shin-Soo Choo could absolutely help a team considering he’s hitting .278/.388/.486 this year, and who isn’t going to love a player with a 52-game on-base streak? The answer, naturally, is the person who has to pay the remainder of Choo’s contract, which comes out at about $48 million for two-plus years. Not a good deal now, not a good deal the moment it was signed, and not a good deal at any point during the contract, which is why Choo would pass through waivers. I think a team would give him a two-year, $20 million contract if he were a free agent at this moment, so if I’m the Rangers, I try to shop him around with $35-$40 million and try to snag a B prospect in return or some low-level lottery pick.
JOSH DONALDSON
Call me crazy, but given a calf injury that’s keeping him on the shelf and a rather down .234/.333/.432 season, could Josh Donaldson pass through waivers? At the very least, Donaldson’s $7 million remaining for that uncertainty will certainly keep him unclaimed up until a contending team that’s serious about wanting to make a deal. A willingness to cover that tab by the Jays may net them a better prospect than they can draft following a qualifying offer.
ANDREW MCCUTCHEN
Whether Andrew McCutchen moves depends on the timing of when he’s placed on revocable waivers and whether the Giants fall out of contention. While I think he would pass through revocable waivers given that he’s only league-average with the kindest possible spin on his 2018 and the remaining salary, it’s not a guarantee. Ideally speaking, the Giants would probably like to have him pass through waivers and leave the option to trade him open, but if they placed him on waivers right now and he’s claimed, the team only gets a couple of days to close a deal, and they’re still competitive right now.
MATT HARVEY
OK, this is a gimme. It would be shocking if the Reds didn’t end up trading Matt Harvey at all, given that they did the Devin Mesoraco swap for the expressed, or at least heavily hinted-at, purpose of flipping him this summer if he showed anything at all. Unlike many players the Reds don’t trade, there’s no long-term organizational fondness to stay their hand nor is there likely to be any real benefit to signing him long-term.
JAMES SHIELDS
Don’t laugh. Nobody’s going to claim him and pick up even the few remaining million that the White Sox owe, but James Shields has at least shown the ability to eat some innings, and with pitchers being the sports equivalent of a vase on a table next to a cat, bad things can happen to pitchers very quickly, and the post-deadline rules make it a trickier task to find a quick replacement. Chicago’s demands are likely to be extremely minimal; I’m not sure he would fetch Fernando Tatis Sr. right now.
TYLER CLIPPARD
I personally don’t see the lure of bringing in Tyler Clippard at this point, but teams sometimes make poor decisions. The Jays don’t have much use for him at this point, and if someone wants him and is willing to pick up a token percentage of his salary, Toronto likely knows they don’t have any leverage here.
CURTIS GRANDERSON
Granderson has shown enough in Toronto that I’m betting he gets moved for a second straight August, hopefully with better results for his new team than last year, when he hit .161/.288/.366 for the Dodgers after a respectable mid-summer for the Mets. There are teams that can still use an extra corner outfield bat, like the Phillies or D-backs. The Rockies could as well, but the team being full of lefty hitters and apparently being unaware of any problem probably kills any chances of that happening.
CHRIS DAVIS
OK, this isn’t happening, but being from Baltimore, it makes me happy to imagine this. Like Bobby Bonilla’s deferred money, I’m doomed to hearing about and making jokes about Chris Davis‘ contract and yearly payments until I’m nearly 60.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Ervin Santana and Fernando Rodney, and we can dream on Logan Morrison….
Yeah, too bad on the Morrison thing… I’d hoped he’d be a factor for the Twinks
Oh he was definitely a factor in the outcome of the Twins’ season . . .
No Will Smith from SF?
Highly doubt he would clear waivers at all. Only has about even right now about 800k left on his deal and by end of month would be down to less than 500k.
Too much team control, too low a salary. Not even the Orioles would put him on waivers.
actually they would- pretty much everyone is put on waivers thru the month. But a guy like that gets claimed fast.
Yeah teams try and do it strategically so as to get the most players through possible, but there are a ton of players that will be auto claimed by someone, and will just never ever make it through waivers. Most teams waive most of there roster just to see what they have to work with.
yep. One thing though that is interesting is there’s so many teams that are just right up against the tax threshold that they won’t be able to do any blocking for fear that the other team just goes ok and lets them walk.
This will become an evolving list, as teams who were contenders on July 31 fall out of contention and decide that selling late is better than never selling at all. Unless the schedule get changed, for example, and the Nats don’t get to play the Mets 50 more times you could see lots more quality names here.
Yeah, but we might see “Gio Gonzalez” type names rather than “Stephen Strasburg” names. Although Gonzalez is probably better than any non-Archer pitcher traded in July.
Really? His stats from June onward are pretty awful, and him and Hellickson falling off a cliff since June are one of the main reasons WAS is out of it. Both didnt get moved before the deadline for that reason I believe. They both started really strong and the good first few months make there season stats look much prettier then they really have been for over a month now.
He had a bad June. His July was not terribly inspired, but okay. FIP around 4.00 in July.
Gio had 5 starts in July. 2 vs Marlins he gave up 3 er in 12 innings with 8 walks and 8 k’s. In the other 3 vs Philly, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee he gave up 10 er in 16.2 innings with 10 walks and 13 k’s. Also not sure how an AL team could deal for him- interleague play he had a 5.70 ERA in 5 starts with .309 avg against and 5 hr in 23 innings allowed. And that’s WITH 2 starts vs the Orioles.
Oakland or Seattle would probably be interested in Gio.
“Woe be unto the teams that recklessly make a claim on a player with a contract they do not wish to have. ”
What a sentence.
anyone want alex rios for 80mm to make him leave?
“… with pitchers being the sports equivalent of a vase on a table next to a cat, bad things can happen to pitchers very quickly…”
Love that line. I am stealing it.
I wouldn’t trade for Chris Davis if the Orioles paid his whole contract and I got control of all of Avon Barksdale’s towers
(we all got Chris Davis jokes from now until forever)
Maybe they need to lay out Davis on a pool table for a mock memorial ala Jimmy. Couldn’t hurt
Good laugh on that comment….referencing the Wire
Mark Trumbo could be a more realistic target from Baltimore.
I suppose that all depends to what extent a team buys him as an average 1B.
Seems like a Rockies type move
I agree with you up until you said “seems like a Rockies type move.” The Rockies type move is to trade for Starlin Castro so they can move him to first base.
Although, Starlin Castro and Mark Trumbo have similar offensive production this year, so maybe that’s not as bad an idea as it seems.
Dude your so wrong Col is going to deal for Inglesias to play 1B.
With Juan Nicasio looking terrible for Seattle in tight situations, despite having an excellent K/BB, I wonder if a swap for Shawn Kelley might make sense for both clubs if Kelley clears waivers. Could a change of scenery benefit both players and clubs?
Cash could be sent with Nicasio to offset some of the financial difference.
How is Matt Harvey still in the Reds? Did no one want him at all?
One more Tiger:
Take Miguel Cabrera, please!
(he’d have to agree)
I thought Sergio Romo might make this list, but maybe he would have a hard time getting through waivers.
No Shane Greene, Sergio Romo?
This is a good article and all that, but nothing can top this dek that appeared with it on the main page:
“More things can happen in August than just Baltimore’s mathematical elimination.”
The fault is not in our All-Stars, it is in our ownership.
Choo is intriguing. He’d be projected as a top-five first baseman in the AL next year, I would expect, given where things are, and a team who could get him on a reasonable contract could do pretty well.
Could be a very nice pickup for the Twins in specific given that they lack both 1B and DH so they wouldn’t absolutely have to move him to first. But there are a bunch of other teams where he could be a good move for 2019-20 at the right price.
Tyson Ross and Jordan Lyles!
2 guys that got let go by San Diego for absolutely nothing.