Red Sox, Yankees, and Wild Card Fairness

It seems possible, maybe even likely, that a 100-win team will face off against a club with more than 10 fewer wins in a one-game Wild Card matchup. With the Yankees now 6.5 games back of the Red Sox, they are likely to get to 100 wins and play either the Mariners or A’s in the Wild Card game. In the format used 10 years ago with four playoff qualifiers, the team could’ve coasted to the finish and guaranteed entry into the division series. In the format used 25 years ago, they wouldn’t even make the playoffs without catching the Red Sox. It raises questions not only as to whether the current format is fair to the Yankees this year, but also whether it is fair in general.

First, let’s look at the standings in the American League.

In discussing fairness, which is the tougher beat, it is unclear which is worse: winning 100 games and playing in a one-game playoff, or winning 90 games and not having any shot at all? I’m not sure there is a correct answer, but both are likely to happen this season in the American League. Perhaps more unfair is that Mike Trout will once again miss the playoffs, but it isn’t clear what league intervention could change the situation. It’s worth noting that a 90-win season or even a 100-win season in the American League isn’t as impressive as it typically might be with five teams projected to lose at least 90 games and three teams on their way to triple-digit losses. The bottom seven teams are expected to average 96 losses, leaving a lot of wins out there for the better teams in the league.

For comparison’s sake, let’s consider a few alternative playoff scenarios. First, under the old method, the Yankees would feel pretty good about their chances of making the divisional round with a 5.5-game lead over the A’s. This scenario would have multiple negative effects on the season. First, the Mariners and A’s might not feel great about their chances of catching either the Astros or the Yankees, and those teams might have chosen not to add at the trade deadline or potentially sell. There would be no Wild Card race. Worse, the Yankees and Red Sox might not have made the same types of effort to improve their teams knowing a division title wasn’t worth all that much.

Another alternative I’ve heard is to go with the current number of teams in the playoffs, but to seed them by record. That would present an interesting scenario this year with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros likely nabbing the guaranteed spots with Cleveland, Seattle, and Oakland fighting for the Wild Card. Making Cleveland compete for a Wild Card spot since their division is bad has some merits, but it might have a drawback competitively as well. If Cleveland knows the best it can possibly do this season is the Wild Card game, do they still give up a top prospect in Francisco Mejia to get Brad Hand and Adam Cimber? Certainly those relievers are helpful in the regular season, but do they pay that high a price if they know the bullpen might only help in a single playoff game? Perhaps the same would be true for their acquisition of Leonys Martin. Teams make trades to get to the playoffs and for the playoffs, and sometimes different players meet different goals.

If the goal for this season is to have as many competitive races as possible without diluting those races to include undeserving teams, somehow rewarding the Yankees for their 100-win season doesn’t really accomplish that. The reward for winning the division is doing exactly what it set out to do, and if the Yankees can go on a run, a big September rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox would generate a ton of interest and provide a great bridge to the postseason. That we also have a potentially great Wild Card race from two teams not expected to make the playoffs is another positive under the current format.

Of course, everything isn’t just about the Yankees and the American League. These are your National League standings.

There are 11 teams expected to finish with at least 81 wins and none expected to go higher than 93 wins. Everyone is close and the Wild Card race will not just be a clever name. It’s not really clear how these races could possibly be made better. Given the parity here, removing a playoff team seems unfair because there are already teams that might deserve a shot at October baseball being left out. It’s possible re-seeding might get the Brewers an automatic pass to the divisional round based on these projections, but it isn’t really possible to say they clearly deserve it when the standings are so tight. If the standings actually looked like this every year, there would probably be more arguments for expanding the playoffs.

The Yankees’ season isn’t going to be looked upon favorably by fans if the team wins 100-plus games but then fails to win the Wild Card. Perhaps it seems like that isn’t fair to the Yankees. Unfortunately for them, what is best and fair to the Yankees isn’t always best and fair for baseball. The current playoff setup produces considerably more regular season excitement for a lot more teams — including the Yankees — than it would with an alternative scheme. The American League is incredibly lopsided this season, with only six teams really in the race for the playoffs. Despite that imbalance, we still see several important races and teams winning the division investing in this year’s playoffs because they know it won’t be a one-game gamble. In what is supposedly a prime example for the necessity of changing the setup, we actually have the opposite in a justification of the current format.