Author Archive

2016 Opening Day 2.0 Live Blog

2:05
Carson Cistulli: Testing and sibilance and testing and sibilance.

2:05
Sean Dolinar: Hello?

2:05
Carson Cistulli: Sean. Hello.

2:06
ASUfool: you’re both alive

2:06
Sean Dolinar: Jeff should be here in a few.

2:06
Pie: Damnit Yankee Stadium, get a roof!

Read the rest of this entry »


Five Things I Believe About the 2016 Season

It’s Opening Day 2.0, so in what is becoming an annual tradition, let’s talk about some things I believe about what we’re going to see this year. These aren’t things I can definitively back up with evidence, but they are things that I think could be proven true as the year goes on. You can take them with all the necessary grains of salt, but as we head towards 2016, here are the five things that I believe for this year.

The game’s young hitters will usher in an offensive revival.

Read the rest of this entry »


2016 Opening Night Live Blog

8:30
Dave Cameron: Happy Opening Night everyone.

8:30
Dave Cameron: And welcome back, baseball.

8:32
CamdenWarehouse: Player/Team is on pace for impossible amount of stat for the year!!!

8:32
Dave Cameron: Chris Archer’s ~400 strikeouts seems perfectly attainable.

8:32
Andrew: Something I haven’t seem mentioned is that I don’t really see any impact SPs being available at the deadline a la Price/Cueto/Hamels. Am I missing anyone or will it be more difficult for a team to upgrade their pitching during the season than it’s been in recent years?

8:33
Dave Cameron: Tyson Ross is pretty good.

Read the rest of this entry »


2016 Opening Day Live Blog

12:46
august fagerstrom: why do we have to boo people on Opening Day

12:46
august fagerstrom: hi everyone

12:47
The Dude of NY: Opening day has me exited like this.

12:47
Wily Mo Money Mo Problems: Could you please explain the Pirates’ lineup construction to me? I realize that the analytics support moving Cutch to the 2 hole, but it seems to be coming at the expense of moving Freese to 3. A top 4 of Jaso, Harrison, McCutchen, and Marte just seems like it *has* to be more productive, but am I looking at this wrong?

12:48
august fagerstrom: Freese batting 3rd is a bit odd.

12:49
august fagerstrom: McCutchen hitting second definitely seems like the right move. Surprised 3-5 isn’t some combo of Marte, Polanco, Cervelli, Harrison

Read the rest of this entry »


How It Could All Go Wrong for the Cubs

The 2016 season hasn’t started yet, but we already know one thing; everyone loves the Cubs this year. Whether you go by projection systems, gambling odds, expert predictions, or general pre-season hype, it’s pretty clear that the Chicago Cubs are the team to beat in 2016. Our forecasts expect them to win nearly 60% of their games and our playoff odds give them a 94% chance of reaching the postseason. Expectations couldn’t really be much higher.

But if there’s one thing baseball is particularly good at, it’s reminding us all how uncertain we should be about predicting a specific future for one player or even one team. In the aggregate, we can do a decent job of forecasting large groups, but for individuals or single teams, the range of possible outcomes is still really large. Last year, for instance, the Nationals had almost exactly the same projections as the Cubs do now, with a .585 projected winning percentage and a 94% chance of reaching the postseason. But instead, they won 83 games and watched the playoffs at home.

So, before the Cubs start playing games that count and things start threatening to go wrong, let’s take a look at what could cause the Cubs to follow in the Nationals path.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Most Important Players of 2016

Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and losing Trout would cost the Angels more wins than the loss of any other player would cost any other franchise. But even with Mike Trout, we’re only projecting the Angels for 80 wins this year, and unless some of his teammates step up, the Angels might not be a factor in the postseason race this year. So, while no one is as singularly valuable as Trout is, there are some players whose performances might end up swinging a division race one way or another, especially because we don’t really know what they’re going to be.Today, let’s look at a few players with a wide range of potential outcomes who could play a critical role in determining whether their team ends up in the postseason this year.

Read the rest of this entry »


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/30/16

12:01
Dave Cameron: It’s the final Wednesday before Opening Day.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Let’s chat about the 2016 season, what to expect, last minute roster decisions, or whatever other baseball ideas come to your mind.

12:01
Luis Sojo: Who are the front-of-the-rotation pitchers most likely to be traded to contenders this season?

12:02
Dave Cameron: If Tyson Ross isn’t traded at some point in the next few months, the Padres really screwed up.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Beyond him, maybe Sonny Gray if the A’s collapse again?

12:03
Pennsy: Percent chance Jayson Werth finishes this season a starting outfielder?

Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Find Rusney Castillo a New Home

Well, the Rusney Castillo era in Boston appears to be over before it ever really began. Signed to a six year, $72 million contract back in August of 2014, Castillo didn’t impress in his rookie season, and now, he appears to not have a job in Boston.

With Chris Young around as an obvious platoon partner for Holt, the decision to start Holt in left field leaves Castillo without a path to any real playing time, as Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley are both very good defenders in their own right, and so the team won’t even be in need of a late-game defensive replacement. And with Andrew Benintendi looking like the team’s left fielder of the future, this was going to be Castillo’s shot at holding down a regular job; he’s unlikely to ever get another real crack at it in Boston now, barring an unforeseen injury.

So it’s probably time Castillo to get a change of scenery. The Red Sox don’t need a $10 million fifth outfielder, Castillo won’t benefit from sitting on the bench, and while he has minor league options remaining, sending him to Triple-A apparently isn’t in the plans.

That leaves a trade as the obvious solution, though Castillo’s contract — he’s due $56 million over the next five years — will be an obstacle for teams pushing up against their budgetary constraints. The Red Sox will likely have to eat some of the money or take back an overpriced contract to offset the money, but that should be doable. So with that said, let’s look at the best options to find Castillo a new home before Opening Day.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jesus Montero Provides a Reminder

While the Mariners won’t officially confirm the news until later today, Jesus Montero is currently on waivers, free to any team who wants to pay the $20,000 waiver fee and is willing to put Montero on their roster. This is quite the downfall for a guy who, not that long ago, was drawing comparisons to some of the best hitters in baseball.

“In terms of hitting ability, Montero can be a Manny Ramirez or a Miguel Cabrera,” [New York Yankees general manager Brian] Cashman told ESPN New York’s Ian O’Connor. “As a catcher, he’s got a cannon for an arm. As far as everything and what I want him to be, I want him to be Jorge Posada.”

Cashman added, “He has a chance to bat third or fourth. He has the potential to be a beast in the middle of our lineup.”

And before you start thinking that Cashman was simply participating in the Yankee-prospect hype machine, this is what he said about him after he traded him to Seattle for Michael Pineda.

In a tweet Friday night, Bergen Record columnist Bob Klapisch quoted Yankees general manager Brian Cashman saying, “To me, Montero is Mike Piazza. He’s Miguel Cabrera.”

To this point in his career, Montero has 865 plate appearances and a 92 wRC+, which puts him in the Orlando-to-Asdrubal tier of Cabreras, rather than the Miguel tier for which Cashman hoped. A guy who hits like a shortstop but can’t run or play the field isn’t much of a big leaguer, which is why the Mariners are willing to give Montero away to anyone who wants him. And why Montero serves as a reminder about how little certainty we should have when it comes to forecasting the future performance of hitters.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers Aren’t Wasting Clayton Kershaw’s Prime

There’s a weird narrative going around with regards to the Dodgers right now. Somehow, the team’s lavish spending on international prospects has been construed as a sign that the team isn’t committed to winning in the short term. Or something. I’ll let Dylan Hernandez’s words from the LA Times try to explain it better.

This was the risk the front office assumed with its long-term plan, which is to be in 2020-something what the World Series favorite Chicago Cubs are now. That strategy explains why the pitching staff consists of primarily spare parts while tens of millions of dollars are being invested in Latin American teenagers.

There’s some logic to the idea, except you wonder if the team’s decision makers are looking too far ahead to recognize the opportunity right in front of them — specifically, that Clayton Kershaw is theirs for at least three more seasons.

At the end of the 2018 season, Kershaw will have the option of doing what Zack Greinke did over the winter and void the remainder of his contract. Greinke didn’t return. Kershaw might not, either.

The three-year period coincides with Kershaw’s prime years; the three-time Cy Young Award winner turned 28 on Saturday.

It’s puzzling why the Dodgers aren’t maximizing their chances of winning a World Series while this once-in-a-generation pitcher is on their roster.

Let’s look at some facts.

Read the rest of this entry »