Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised and midseason lists released by Baseball America or BP’s recent midseason top-50 list — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Ryan Helsley, RHP, St. Louis (Profile)
This now represents Helsley’s fifth appearance among the Five proper this season, moving him into a tie for second on the haphazardly calculated scoreboard located at the bottom of this post. Following his promotion to Double-A Springfield, the right-hander has continued to post impressive indicators. In the two starts and 12.0 innings he’s recorded since last week, for example, Helsley struck out 30% of batters faced, producing an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the latter (and most recent) of those efforts, against Padres affiliate San Antonio (box).

Helsley recorded a number of swings and misses with his plus fastball and also cutter in that game. What else he did was utilize an objectively less impressive but still useful curveball for first-pitch strikes and awkward swings.

Consider three such curves from that contest:

The ability to extract value from a third or fourth pitch, even if it lacks the effectiveness of other offerings, is almost certainly of some benefit to a pitcher’s ability to assume a starting (as opposed to relief) role.

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Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised and midseason lists released by Baseball America or BP’s recent midseason top-50 list — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Ryan Helsley, RHP, St. Louis (Profile)
The right-handed Helsley has appeared among the Five with some frequency this season. Recently, he’s begun appearing in Double-A games, as well. The 23-year-old recorded his Texas League debut on August 1st and has produced a 28.6% strikeout rate over two starts and 10.2 innings with Springfield.

The advantage of Helsley’s promotion is that it facilitates an opportunity for impostor scouts like the present author to observe him by way of a minor-league broadcast. A couple of sequences from the right-hander’s most recent start reveal those qualities which have facilitated Helsley’s success this year.

First, there’s his fastball, a pitch that has (notably) touched 100 mph. Helsley had the opportunity to throw it to a real major leaguer, the rehabbing Paulo Orlando, in his most recent start. In at least two instances, the results were positive:

So that’s the fastball, but what about secondary pitches? Helsley appears to throw a curve and changeup. From what I’ve seen, the former has its uses — especially against same-handed batters — but it’s the latter that appears to offer considerable promise. Here, by way of example, are consecutive changeups from Helsley’s most recent start, each pitch exhibiting excellent depth:

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Bailey (27.1 IP, 113 xFIP-) vs. Severino (120.2 IP, 72 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm seems — as was the case yesterday, as well — to have selected a Reds-Yankees contest as the day’s most appealing. As was also the case yesterday, the involvement of the Yankees themselves is largely responsible for that. Few, if any clubs, are playing games of greater consequence right now. According to the coin-flip methodology — which seems to best reflect how the dumb human mind operates — the Yankees currently possess a 57% chance of qualifying for the postseason. So, nearly even.

The presence of scheduled starter Luis Severino is also of some consequence. Among qualified pitchers, he’s recorded the highest average fastball velocity, at 97.6 mph. He also appears among the league’s run-prevention leaders by basically every measure.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cincinnati Radio or New York AL TV.

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Episode 758
Managing editor Dave Cameron utilizes this edition of the program both to review and also preview the deals of 2017’s non-waiver trade deadline.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Castillo (35.0 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Montgomery (101.1 IP, 105 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm appears to have selected this evening’s Reds-Yankees game as the day’s most appealing. Of particular note, it seems, is the participation of young Cincinnati right-hander Luis Castillo. Among the 203 pitchers who’ve recorded 20-plus innings as a starter this season, the 24-year-old rookie has produced the second-highest average fastball velocity — behind only Noah Syndergaard by that measure. His swinging-strike rate (13.3%), meanwhile, places in the 93rd percentile among that same group.

The involvement of the Yankees is also responsible for the game’s high score. The American’s League New York franchise currently possesses almost precisely a 50% chance of qualifying for the postseason according to the coin-flip methodology of this site’s playoff odds. The coin-flip methodology, while actually less accurate than the projection-based model, does appear to better reflect the dumb human mind’s sense of the league’s various postseason races.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cincinnati Radio or New York AL TV.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Rodriguez (66.1 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Paxton (94.1 IP, 79 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm has identified this evening’s Boston-Seattle game as the day’s most compelling. Largely because of James Paxton, is the reason for that. The left-hander has been a nearly perfect pithcing specimen. Because, regard: not only has Paxton produced top-10 fastball-velocity and pitching-independent figures among the 150 starters who’ve compiled 50-plus innings, but he’s also recorded one of the fastest paces among pitchers in that same sample. The leverage of this game for Boston is also notable. According to this site’s coin-flip methodology — which seems to best reflect how the dumb human brain works — the Red Sox possess almost exactly a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Episode 757
The prolific Travis Sawchik is a former beat reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and author of the book Big Data Baseball. He’s also the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses (a) Jimmy Nelson’s use of the kinetic sciences, (b) the prospects of realignment in Major League Baseball, and also (c) the BBWAA Hardball Dynasty league.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 17 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Arizona | 16:10 ET
Strasburg (119.2 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Ray (112.0 IP, 90 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has selected this afternoon’s Washington-Arizona game as the day’s most compelling. In this case, the distinction seems warranted. Consider: both probable starters have the capacity to overwhelm hitters, each having produced a top-10 strikeout rate among baseball’s 70 qualified pitchers. As for the clubs involved, both continue to play games of some relevance, the D-backs very much chasing a Wild Card spot while the Nationals attempt simply to preserve their lead in the NL East.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Stroman (119.0 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (55.0 IP, 81 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified today’s Toronto-Cleveland game as the most appealing. While, at this point in the season, a club’s playoff odds — and, specifically, the proximity of those odds to 50% by the coin-flip method — are weighted more heavily than pitching-related variables, the performances this year by Marcus Stroman and Danny Salazar have been exceptional or something like exceptional this year. This, in conclusion, accounts for the logic behind the selection of this game as the day’s most appealing.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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