Author Archive

NERD Game Scores: Noah Syndergaard Against the Unknown

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Syndergaard (91.0 IP, 55 xFIP-) vs. Unknown (N/A)
Were one to suggest that Noah Syndergaard faces the unknown tonight in Washington, one would appear to be advancing an existential truth that applies not merely to Syndergaard himself but rather to anyone who’s been tasked with this absurd burden of living. Because, regard: “a perpetual bout with the unknown” certainly isn’t the worst characterization of our works and days. That said, it’s also possible that one, stating that Syndergaard faces the unknown tonight, is merely noting how the Nationals hadn’t named a starting pitcher for this evening’s game. Because they hadn’t. At least not so far as Major League Baseball’s probables page is concerned.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York Television.

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NERD Game Scores: Fernandez/Kershaw Double Feature

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL (Hammel) at Miami (Fernandez) | 13:10 ET
Los Angeles NL (Kershaw) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl) | 20:08 ET
Does baseball — or any spectator sport, for that matter — amount to little more than an optiate of the masses, a distraction from the centralization of power among a select few whose nearly invisible oppressive force slowly corrodes our humanity? Or, alternatively, does it offer an opportunity to observe the perpetual struggle against circumstance — the agon in Greek — played out in dramatic form, to witness the outlying margins of human potential? “Yes,” is obviously the one possible answer. Today, whatever the Pastime offers, it offers it twice, first in the form of Jose Fernandez at around 1pm ET and then, later, by way of Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television, Los Angeles NL Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Saturday, June 25, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Texas | 21:20 ET
Wright (98.1 IP, 102 xFIP-) vs. Griffin (33.2 IP, 112 xFIP-)
The adjusted xFIP figures for Steven Wright and A.J. Griffin are published here because they’re published for every pitcher scheduled to start in the day’s most highly rated game. Generally, this make sense: whatever a pitcher’s adjusted ERA at any moment, it’s more likely to resemble his xFIP figure going forward. But that’s only generally. Further research on DIPS theory over the last decade-plus has revealed that certain pitchers actually do exhibit signature batted-ball profiles.

Knuckleballers are one sort of pitcher of this sort. As a result, it’s not surprising to find that Wright has produced an ERA over than 30% lower than his xFIP relative to the league (106 xFIP-, 71 ERA-). Likewise, Griffin. He doesn’t possess a knuckleball, but does throw a curve that sits at just under 70 mph. Perhaps as a result of that — and a result of the interaction of that pitch with the rest of his repertoire — he’s conceded a .247 BABIP over 300-plus innings this year, only .237 this year.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, June 24, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Scherzer (101.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Davies (69.2 IP, 98 xFIP-)
The reader is likely aware of the how Max Scherzer is talented. The purpose of this brief entry is to note how Zach Davies, while less talented than Max Scherzer, is also probably more talented than the average major-league starter. Here’s one piece of supporting his evidence: for the season, Davies’ run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers are better than average. Here’s a second, related piece: in June, specifically, Davies has produced the 20th-best adjusted xFIP and third-best ERA among 98 qualified starters. Here’s who’s right in front of him on the ERA leaderboard: Michael Fulmer and Steven Wright. Here’s who’s right behind: Max Scherzer — a.k.a. the same pitcher who’s the pitcher Zach Davies opposes tonight.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee or Washington Radio.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

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Chance Adams, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
Adams debuted among the Five proper last week on the strength (generally) of his season-to-date performance and (specifically) his two most recent starts. The first of those appearances was impressive for the outcome itself: against Pirates affiliate Bradenton, the 21-year-old Adams recorded a 10:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 17 batters over 5.0 no-hit innings. The line from the second start was less conspicuously great (5.1 IP, 19 TBF, 3 K, 1 BB) but notable for another reason: it was the product of Adams’ first Double-A appearance. The right-hander recorded his second-ever Double-A start just last night (Thursday) at Orioles affiliate Bowie (box). Adams conceded six runs. Which, that’s not ideal. But he also produced a 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 25 batters. Which, more ideal. And where matters of projecting future success are concerned, it’s the latter of those marks on which one likely ought to dwell.

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, June 23, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Detroit | 13:10 ET
Sampson (4.2 IP, 112 xFIP-) vs. Norris (1.0 IP, 225 xFIP-)
The idea that being handed lemons by Life — the idea that this somehow represents an undesirable state of affairs — is a bit perplexing for those among us who’ve been compelled actually to pay for lemons at a grocery. Nearly as perplexing as the suggestion that, once having been supplied with all these lemons, that one ought immediately to run out and go make lemonade. Because consider: lemons are present in a number of pesto recipes. And serve as a nice complement to broiled fish. Nor does this even credit the many uses of lemon zest. Lemonade, whatever its merits, doesn’t come close to representing the fully actualized state of the lemon.

Today’s baseball schedule has handed the reader metaphorical lemons. There are fewer games than usual and a paucity of elite starters. But this oughtn’t prevent one from extracting pleasure from it. The best use of the day, perhaps? To play the role of impostor-scout and carefully observe the starts of Seattle’s Adrian Sampson and Detroit’s Daniel Norris, neither of whom has recorded even as much as five innings in the majors this season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: Noah Syndergaard Thought Experiment

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at New York NL | 13:10 ET
Duffy (54.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (85.0 IP, 53 xFIP-)
During Dave Cameron’s most recent appearance on FanGraphs Audio, he and the host discuss the difficulties inherent to manual pitch classification when the pitch classifier lacks the benefit of velocity readings. The Mets’ Noah Syndergaard illustrates the point. For example, consider: his average changeup velocity sits somewhere between 90 and 91 mph, the hardest among any starter who throws the pitch. Now consider more: that changeup velocity approaches the median average velocity of all the sinkers thrown by major-league starters this season. Changeups and sinkers generally feature more pronounced arm-side and downward movement than four-seam fastballs. So Syndergaard’s changeup, one finds, likely bears greater resemblance to the average sinker than it does a changeup. “How would I classify it?” the reader might ask while observing Syndergaard’s start. “What is the precise depth of my sadness?” is another popular question for any living person, too.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes the Analysts

Episode 661
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he discusses the likely replacement level of analysts in major-league front offices, reveals some findings from a recent trip to MLB Advanced Media’s Manhattan offices, and speculates wildly on the future of Cuban free agent Yulieski Gourriel.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

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NERD Game Scores: Surprise Meeting of Corey Kluber Society

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Surprise Meeting of the Corey Kluber Society
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce an impromptu meeting — in this case, at 7:10pm ET tonight (Tuesday) — of the Corey Kluber Society.

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2016 Broadcaster Rankings: Final Results

Recently, within this site’s electronic pages, the author facilitated a crowdsourcing effort with a view towards reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared here roughly four years ago. More recently, that same author published the updated results for television broadcasts here and for radio here.

The service which the author has failed to render, however, is to present all the results from that endeavor in one easily digestible form. The purpose of this post is to right that vile wrong.

Below, the reader will find two tables. The first contains the complete rankings for the league’s 62 distinct television and radio broadcast teams. The second features only the highest-ranked broadcast for each major-league club.

As in every other case, it’s important to stress here that the results of this exercise aren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site. Note, furthermore, that the overall ratings which appear below are not mere averages of the charisma and analysis scores which accompany them, but a distinct category for which respondents submitted scores independently.

Those dozen caveats having been stated explicitly — and many more implied — here are the results of the 2016 broadcaster rankings.

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