On Wednesday night, Brandon Belt came to the plate six times. He drew four walks, struck out once, and put one ball in play, a single in the 11th that drove in a run. Of course, the combination of all those walks and the relative lack of homers sometimes leads to spurious criticisms not unlike those leveled at Joey Votto. While most understand that Votto is a great hitter and many understand that what Belt does is good, Belt’s reputation likely suffers more than Votto’s for a few reasons.

1. He’s not as good as Joey Votto.
2. He hits relatively few homers for a first baseman.

As to that first point, there’s no shame in failing to rival Joey Votto. As to the second, it really is hard to overstate the effects of Belt’s home park. Despite what Barry Bonds might have led everyone to believe, it’s incredibly difficult to hit homers in San Francisco. Despite what Barry Bonds might have led everyone to believe, it’s even more incredibly difficult for lefties to homer there.

Brandon Belt isn’t without power. He has posted ISOs well above league average throughout his career. Since the beginning of 2015, his .226 ISO on the road is 23rd best in baseball among the 160 players who’ve recorded at least 500 away plate appearances. He’s within 10 points of Joey Votto; he’s right behind Josh Donaldson, Brian Dozier, and Daniel Murphy; and he’s just ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista. In 580 away plate appearances since the beginning of 2015 — roughly a season’s worth of playing time- – Belt has 28 home runs, having hit them at a greater rate than Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt. His numbers are good in high-leverage and low-leverage situations. He’s good with runners on and the bases empty. He’s consistent, too, as the chart showing his 100-game rolling ISO shows.

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Attendance in April isn’t likely to make or break a team’s season at the box office. Numbersgenerally trends upwards from the beginning to the end of a season. Nor is that surprising: the weather gets better, kids get out of school, and the games generally have greater playoff implications.

April’s attendance numbers are more often based on a combination of expectations and tradition. Teams that are expected to be competitive — the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Giants — are going to sell a lot of tickets. As the season progresses, of course, clubs that fall out of a playoff race can expect a decline in attendance relative to their more competitive seasons. Conversely, teams that have surprisingly good years can see increases. Nevertheless, in terms of predictive measures of yearly attendance, a club’s April attendance is more significant than its April win-loss record. For teams like the Mets and Royals, that’s bad news. For the Orioles and Phillies, however, the outlook is much better.

Early on in the season, here’s what the average attendance per home game looks like for every team.

The Dodgers, just like they do every year, have the early lead and will likely continue to have one all year. That’s not surprising: they play in a massive stadium and even bigger market. The Cardinals, Giants, and Chicago Cubs are up there, too, with the defending World Champions benefiting not only from a great team but a renovated ballpark. The Blue Jays were a middle-of-the-pack team just a few seasons ago, but have shot up the last few years following a string of successful seasons. The general lesson here? Be competitive and the people will come — especially in larger markets.

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Remember last August when Gary Sanchez hit a ton of home runs and put up a .442 isolated-power figure for the New York Yankees? It was amazing. It was also special, so far as exhibitions of power are concerned. Consider: only four batters produced a higher single-month ISO last year than Sanchez. It wasn’t just improbable for a rookie; it was improbable for a major leaguer.

But the improbable is different than the impossible. Now another power-hitting Yankees prospect, Aaron Judge, has just finished his first real month as a starting outfielder in New York and has recorded a .447 ISO in the process — or slightly higher than Sanchez’s mark. The power is as large as Judge himself.

And while Judge has been the most impressive hitter for the Yankees, the club has received quite a few pleasant surprises. Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Aaron Hicks, Matt Holliday, Austin Romine, and Ronald Torreyes have all exceeded expectations.

The result? A very successful first month of the season, leading to a 15-8 record. And while some of the club’s surprising performances won’t last — Judge included — the Yankees have banked some wins, increased their projections, and significantly improved their playoff odds, as the chart below shows.

The Yankees entered the 2017 season with playoff odds of 15.9%, the worst of any team in the AL East. Their strong April has put them over the 50% mark the rest of the way, however. At the start of the season, the Yankees were projected to have a .488 win percentage. Going forward, that number is already up to .509. Add in the wins they’ve already received, and their projected end-of-season winning percentage is up to .529.

Largely responsible for that positive trend is Judge himself. As with the club itself, his own personal projections now appear more optimistic.

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Last night, the Chicago Cubs lost their seventh game of the season, falling to 6-7 in the process. In 2016, the Cubs didn’t lose their seventh game of the year until May 11, so this start represents a departure from last season’s 103-win, World Series champion.

That doesn’t mean there’s cause for concern, though. The team isn’t hitting all that well, but Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Addison Russell are all likely to improve upon their early-season lines. The offense, as a whole, ought to come around. The rotation is pitching well — Kyle Hendricks has had a rough start, but Brett Anderson has been a pleasant surprise — so nothing really to worry about there. The bullpen, though, might be worth a closer look.

The Cubs’ bullpen has put up a 4.10 ERA, which isn’t very good, and a 4.46 FIP, which is even worse. Through 41.2 innings, the team’s relievers have been slightly worse than replacement level as a group. They’ve blown four saves already, tied with the Marlins for the most in the National League — and for whatever shortcomings the save possesses as a metric, having a bullpen blow a lead four times in 13 games isn’t good.

On the whole, the bullpen has been bad. Has it been team-wide issue, though, or the product of a few poor performers? Let’s see.

New closer Wade Davis has been good. Koji Uehara has been fine. Carl Edwards, Jr. looks like he’s ready to step into a more prominent role. Mike Montgomery hasn’t been great, really, but he’s covered a lot of innings adequately. Hector Rondon seems like he’s probably back after a rough 2016 season, and Brian Duensing has only pitched two innings. If there’s blame to had it is coming from two guys: Justin Grimm and Pedro Strop. While Grimm’s start hasn’t been great, he’s also not expected to be more than the sixth- or seventh-best reliever on the team. Looking even closer, Grimm’s poor pitching hasn’t really even cost the Cubs. Here are the same pitchers by win-probability statistics.

Of Grimm’s six appearances, three have come in very low-leverage situations, one has been roughly neutral, and two have occurred in high-leverage situations. On April 10, Grimm came on in the seventh with the bases loaded and no outs with the Cubs holding a one-run lead. A pop fly and a double play later, the Cubs’ chances of winning moved from 39% to 79%, making up for Grimm’s few poor performances in low-leverage outings, as well as another appearance (April 14) during which he allowed two inherited runners plus a run of his own en route to turning a 2-1 lead into a 4-2 deficit.

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Last fall, Andrew Miller pitched 19.1 innings in 15 postseason games. Extrapolated out to a full 162-game season, that would equal 209 innings. That is basically an impossible load for the modern reliever. Consider, for context, that the only relief pitcher since World War II to top 170 innings is Mike Marshall, who did it twice, including 208.1 innings in 1974. The last major-league reliever to top 150 innings was Mark Eichhorn in 1986. Since the strike in 1994, Scott Sullivan’s 113.2 reliever innings in 1999 represents the majors’ highest mark. No reliever has crossed the 100-inning threshold in the last decade.

All indications suggest that, if a bullpen revolution is really to occur in baseball, it isn’t simply going to be a matter of a single pitcher recording a ton of innings. Exhibit A in an argument against the reality of an Andrew Miller Revolution is that Andrew Miller himself is only on pace for around 88 innings this season. What Miller did in the postseason last year is likely to remain a product of the postseason.

There might be a different sort of bullpen revolution occurring in Ohio, though. Only, this one isn’t happening in Cleveland. Rather, it’s unfolding about four hours southwest on I-71. If there is a bullpen revolution brewing, it’s happening in Cincinnati.

Consider: if a team were starting a bullpen from scratch and trying to create an ideal bullpen, they would likely abide by three basic principles.

1. Put the best pitchers in the most important situations.
2. Ignore the save statistic.
3. Use the best pitchers for multiple innings.

Let’s evaluate the Reds’ bullpen usage this season so far by each of these three principles.

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You could be forgiven, heading into last season, for thinking that Daniel Murphy would fail to carry over the magic of his 2015 playoff performance into the 2016 campaign. Many teams seem to have had similar suspicions: a free agent, Murphy received just $37.5 million over three years to sign with Washington. The Nationals were immediately rewarded: Murphy recorded nearly six wins for the club, basically providing a full return on Washington’s investment in just the first year of the contract.

Despite the wild success of Murphy’s 2016 campaign, it’s possible you had your doubts going into the current season, as well. Murphy was entering his age-32 season. His success last season was built in part on a very high BABIP. He doesn’t walk a ton. The projections were pegging him for just short of three wins this year. There was plenty of reason to expect some regression.

Early in the 2017 season, however, Daniel Murphy’s play is dispelling whatever doubts remained about the legitimacy of last year’s breakout.

After just eight games, Murphy already has 17 hits, seven for extra bases. He’s gotten at least one hit in every game, gotten at least two hits in six of eight games — including a three-hit game and last night’s four-hit game. With two doubles and a homer yesterday, Murphy is hitting .472/.486/.778 with a wRC+ of 230. It’s easy to say that it’s only eight games, but if Murphy gets another 550 plate appearances on the season and hits “only” his projected 118 wRC+ over the course of it, he’ll still record a 125 wRC+ overall. Over his last 200 games dating back to August 1, 2015, Murphy has a 153 wRC+ and that doesn’t even include another 86 postseason plate appearances where that number was close to 200. Murphy has been a really good hitter for quite some time, and it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down.

If you recall, Murphy did this exact same thing at the beginning of last season, hitting .480/.581/.880 with a 277 wRC+ after eight games. There were still skeptics at that point, and there were still skeptics a month later when Dave Cameron asked everyone to buy into Daniel Murphy. Over the winter, Jeff Sullivan looked at Murphy’s unique skillset, which includes a whole lot of power and a whole lot of contact. Sullivan noted that, in recent history, only Victor Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra have had seasons like Murphy’s 2016. Going further back into the past we find Hall of Famers like George Brett and Tris Speaker.

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When we think about how parks affect players, we generally think of it in the context of hitting and pitching. Bring the fences in and batters will hit more homers. Build a taller wall or a whole new park with bigger dimensions, and pitchers are going to have an easier time preventing the long ball.

For the Houston Astros and George Springer, however, the removal of Tal’s Hill has added significance. While it might add a homer or two to Springer’s home-run ledger, the greater impact is likely to be a defensive one. This represents Springer’s first season as Houston’s starting center fielder. With four homers already to his name this year, Springer is making a big impact with the bat. His ability to play the more demanding outfield position — one now free of deadly obstacles — also deepens the Astros’ excellent lineup.

In the minors, Springer primarily played center field, getting 244 of his 267 starts at the position as he ascended through Houston’s minor-league system. Once he got to the majors, though, he was moved to a corner while a combination of Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Jake Marisnick, Colby Rasmus, and even Alex Presley all got time there. Of those players, the only real plus defender — accounting for Gomez’s hip problems — was Marisnick. Fowler, meanwhile, provided the only decent bat Houston has featured in center field, and that was back in 2014. Springer ended up starting just 16 games in center field from 2014 to 2016 — and 10 of those were on the road. The removal of Tal’s Hill helps to facilitate Springer’s transition to a full-time role in center field. The team sacrifices a little on defense in favor of Springer’s offensive ability over Jake Marisnick’s.

Springer has been a positive out in right field for the Astros since joining the team three years ago, posting positive numbers in both UZR (+2.5) and DRS(+10) over nearly 3,000 innings. While certainly solid, such numbers don’t cry out for a great defensive challenge for Springer. Prior to this season, they likely discouraged time in center field, especially in Houston. With a center-field fence extending out to 440 feet and a gigantic hill to make everything more difficult, Springer’s range likely would have been exposed. For one of the team’s best hitters, it might have put him at increased injury risk given his penchant for running into walls.

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If you’ve spent any time thinking about Michael Pineda, you’ve probably spent some time trying to figure out what’s wrong with Michael Pineda. He strikes out a ton of guys, walks very few, and posts FIPs better than league average. He also gives up a lot of home runs, has trouble with runners on base, and can’t seem to keep his ERA anywhere near league average.

Pineda’s season debut yesterday against Tampa Bay appeared only to offer more of the same. Despite recording a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6:0 against 18 batters, Pineda ultimately allowed four runs in just 3.2 innings (box). While one game isn’t going to tell us much, yesterday’s performance didn’t do anything to suggest that this year’s version of Pineda is going to differ much from last year’s.

We didn’t always write articles trying to figure out what was wrong with Michael Pineda. Back in 2014, when Pineda was just returning from a series of injuries that kept him out for most of three seasons, Jeff Sullivan praised Pineda for his aggressiveness and improved command despite a somewhat lengthy layoff. The following spring, Eno Sarris examined what appeared to be a nasty changeup that could serve him well. Jeff Sullivan followed up a month later to discuss the possibility that Pineda was benefiting from increased velocity while also managing to locate his fastball and change in the right spots. That piece was written right after Pineda struck out 16 Baltimore Orioles without yielding a walk. For the rest of the season, Pineda put up an okay 3.92 FIP and a bad 5.02 ERA, which he essentially duplicated last in 2016.

So last season, Eno took a look at Pineda, writing two pieces in one day. The first highlighted Pineda’s command, which maybe was inferior to what Pineda had exhibited previously. The second noted Pineda’s problems with runners on base, which could have been a product of pitching from the stretch. Sarris also hypothesized that Pineda might be too afraid of conceding walks with runners on. Finally, this past offseason, Nick Stellini stepped up, noting that Pineda had tended to throw a lot of fastballs in the middle of the zone (which got hit really hard) and many of his sliders out of the zone (which were balls). On their own, both Eno’s and Nick’s ideas have merits. Let’s combine their hypotheses and see what happens.

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It’s possible you haven’t had the opportunity to watch every single game over the first few days of the 2017 season. For those games you’ve missed — say, Pittsburgh against Boston on Monday — you’re likely to have glanced at the box score to see how certain players performed. In the case of that Pirates-Red Sox game, you find that Andrew Benintendi hit a homer, Rick Porcello pitched six solid innings, and that the home team won by a score of 5-3.

If you looked at the line of Pittsburgh starter Gerrit Cole, you’d see a flawed five innings, with just two strikeouts, one walk, that homer to Benintendi, and all five of Boston’s runs. That’s not how Cole wanted the season to start, but the stat line isn’t quite as bad as it would appear.

Gerrit Cole has been successful in the major leagues primarily due to a great four-seam fastball. When he complemented the fastball with increased slider usage, he started dominating. There had been some talk earlier in the spring about an increased use of the changeup, as well, but when he spoke with Travis Sawchik, Cole indicated he was prioritizing his health and returning to what made him successful.

This spring Cole is not trying to re-invent himself. He has a modest goal: a healthy season. While he’s toyed with the idea of throwing more changeups the last couple of springs, he has rarely thrown the pitch in the regular season. He says he plans on continuing to be “me,” which indicates he will lean on a fastball that has averaged 95.2 mph or better in each of his first four major-league seasons — he threw it 66.7% of the time last year in line with his career (66.5%) usage — and the slider as a put-away offering.

For Cole, being “me” would suggest a combination of heavy fastball usage with the slider for whiffs. Did he stick to that plan against Boston, though? Not so much, actually. Cole did throw that fastball roughly 70% of the time, which is right in line with his established levels. As for the non-fastball offerings, however, he actually didn’t return to the slider that had made him so successful, ultimately throwing the pitch just six times.

As for explanations, we could chalk it up to efficiency. Cole threw just 76 pitches total. Through four innings, he’d thrown just 50 pitches to 13 batters. Cole wasn’t striking batters out. If hitters were putting the ball in play early in the count, then it’s possible he just arrived in fewer situations where the slider made sense. That wasn’t the case, however.

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Two years ago, the Cincinnati Reds finished the season by starting rookie pitchers in 64 straight games. Overall, rookies made 110 starts for the Reds that season, third most in history behind the 1998 Florida Marlins and the 2009 Oakland Athletics. The ’98 Marlins team featured the dismantled remnants of the previous season’s World Series title team and lost 104 games. The A’s team finished .500, as Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez made solid debuts while Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, and Josh Outman also pitched. As might be expected, the 2015 Reds were bad, but given their reliance on rookies, we might think the staff might prove to have more veterans in 2016 and 2017. That hasn’t been the case at all.

After getting 110 rookie starts in 2015, the Cincinnati Reds followed up with another 56 rookie starts last year. In the last 100 seasons, only 24 franchises have ever had 81 games or more started by rookie pitchers. Of those teams, the 1934 Philadelphia A’s, the 1936 Philadelphia A’s, the 1978 Oakland A’s, the 2009 Baltimore Orioles, and the 2015 Reds were the only ones to follow up the season questions with another 50 starts by rookies. For the Orioles, Brian Matusz barely avoided losing his rookie status in 2009, so his 32 starts in 2010 comprised the bulk of the Orioles’ 50 rookie starts, with Jake Arrieta nabbing the other 18.

As for the A’s, there have been 234 team seasons over the past 100 years in which rookies started at least 50 games; the A’s alone are responsible 12% (28) of them. Whether in Philadelphia, Kansas City, or Oakland, the organization has almost always been a spendthrift operation, and from 1935 to 1967, the club finished in last place or second-to-last place 25 of 33 seasons, never placing higher than fourth. Only 30 times in history has a team started rookie pitchers in 50 or more games at least two seasons in a row, and the A’s organization is responsible for seven of those times, encompassing 19 seasons.

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