For the first time in 7 years, Jim Thome failed play in over 140 games after having season ending elbow surgery in mid August. Before his decision to shut things down, he was easily having the worst season of his career by batting only .207 with a mere 7 home runs in 193 at bats. Jim Thome insists he'll be fully recovered from shoulder surgery next season and ready to play for his new team, the White Sox. While a rebound for the slugger is almost a certainty, how much of an improvement over last year should be expected?

First let's address his poor batting average. Besides injuries, some of his .207 batting average can be attributed to a very low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). As you can see his 2005 BABIP of .260 is way out of line with his career averages and should revert to at least the .300 mark next year. In addition to his low BABIP, his walk to strikeout ratio remains above average which only bolsters evidence that his batting average will rebound.

However, the area where he experienced the most severe decline was not his batting average but his Isolated Power (ISO). Much of this decline is likely due to injuries, but he'll be 36 years old next season and I'd be surprised if his age wasn't slightly responsible for the decrease in power.

If Jim Thome can remain healthy next season, I don't see any reason why he won't have a significant rebound. His batting average should return to around his career averages, but I'd be surprised if he had another 40 home run season. Considering his health and age, I think 30 home runs is more within reason.

The Cubs have signed Bob Howry to a three year, 12 million dollar contract. For the past two years, Bob Howry has been one of the better relievers in the American League by posting back to back sub-3 ERA seasons. Let's see if there's any chance he can make his sub-3 ERA, a three year occurrence.

His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have been fairly inconsistent. In 2004 he had an excellent K/9 of 8.2, but in 2005 it dropped to a below average 5.9. Despite the drop in his K/9 he was able to keep a high strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) by decreasing the number of walks he allowed.

The one area where I see a real problem is his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). In 2005 he had a BABIP of .222, which is incredibly low. It was so low that it puts him in the 99th percentile of all pitchers. Considering the league average is right around .300, I'd say there is absolutely no chance of him repeating his .222 BABIP.

I can't say I'm too optimistic that Bob Howry will have another sub-3 ERA season. The decrease in his strikeout rate is somewhat troubling as it means he'll have to be extra careful not to walk batters. Then there's the unsustainable BABIP which I wouldn't be too surprised to see above .300 next season considering how lucky he was in 2005. Don't think that a move to the National League will help him either as NL relievers actually had a higher ERA than American League relievers last year. Yeah, I'd say the chances of Bob Howry having another sub-3 ERA season are pretty slim.

A couple of weeks ago, Javier Vazquez formally requested to be traded. If the Diamondbacks don't trade him by March 15th, he will have the option to become a free agent. Up until being traded to the Yankees in 2004, he spent six years in Montreal where he was one of the better pitchers in the National League. After spending one devastating year with the Yankees, he was sent to the Diamondbacks where he showed vast improvement, but failed to completely recapture his pre-Yankee days. Will Javier Vazquez ever return to being the dominant pitcher he was in Montreal?

If you look at his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), it actually looks like he already returned to his pre-Yankee days. However, the same cannot be said for his ERA.

The main reason for his failure to post such a high ERA despite his very high K/BB is that he gave up 35 home runs, the second most in baseball.

For Javier Vazquez to completely recover from his year as a Yankee, he'll have to reduce the number of home runs he allows. A move to a pitcher friendly park would certainly help him in this area. Other than his home runs, it looks like he's back on track to be a dominant pitcher.

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Marlins' Josh Beckett will be heading to Boston along with Mike Lowell in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and a player to be named. Yesterday I talked about Josh Beckett's considerable upside, but Mike Lowell is coming off the worst year of his career. What should Red Sox fans expect from Mike Lowell next season?

As you can see, Mike Lowell had an extremely low batting average (BA) last season which was way out of line with his career averages. Most likely this was the result of an equally low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .256. So, was he just incredibly unlucky last season, or was this indicative of something else?

I'm leaning strongly towards unlucky. His walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) remained a very good 0.79. Actually, the last time someone hit for such a low batting average with such a high BB/K was Paul Konerko in 2003, and he just had back to back 40 home run seasons. However, unlike Paul Konerko in 2003, Mike Lowell's Isolated Power (ISO) never reached previous levels at any point during the season.

I suspect that Mike Lowell's batting average will bounce back next year in a big way. As for his power numbers, I think he'll definitely hit more than his 8 home runs in 2005, but I'm hesitant to say he'll completely revert to 2004 form. Moving to Fenway Park may also give his power numbers a boost. Either way, there's no doubt in my mind that in 2005, Mike Lowell was just unlucky.

Apparently the Marlins are trying to move 2003 World Series hero Josh Beckett in an attempt to cut their payroll. The two possible trades would be Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Denks, or Peter Gammons suggests he could be sent to the Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez and either Jon Lester or Anibal Sanchez.

Josh Beckett has at times been compared to a young Roger Clemens. Unfortunately, much of his young career has been marred with blister problems. In 2005 he pitched in 29 games, the most of his career, and posted a 15-8 record with a 3.37 ERA. How much more can be expected of him?

Josh Beckett's strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have been on a slight decline the past two years, but it still remains an excellent 8.4. That's good enough to rank him among the top 10 of all starting pitchers in 2005.

Fortunately, any decrease in his K/9 has been offset by a greater decrease in his walks per 9 innings (BB/9). There is still a lot of room for improvement here and he's heading in the right direction. If you take a look at his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) graph below, you can see every year he has made slight improvements.

Josh Beckett will only be 26 years old next season. The only thing stopping him thus far has been his blisters and he was only bothered by them once last year. Each year of his young career he has taken small steps forward and I expect that next year he'll take yet another step forward.

Apparently the Padres are interested in re-acquiring David Wells from the Red Sox. Over the past four years David Wells is tied for the 8th most wins in baseball with a record of 61-29. Over that same time period, he has had the most run support of any player in baseball with 605 runs, a whopping 4.94 runs per start. What I'm trying to infer is that he's been the benefit of some pretty gaudy run support and maybe he hasn't pitched quite as well as his record indicates.

You certainly can't accuse David Wells of giving up many free passes. Over the past three years he's walked 61 batters in 91 starts. He only struck out 5.2 batters per 9 innings last year, but when you're walking only 1 batter every 9 innings, you can live with a lower strikeout rate. As you can see in the graph below, his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) is extremely high.

David Wells will be 43 years old next season, which is getting up there for a baseball player. It's hard to pinpoint any specific areas of decline on his graphs, but if I had to point to one thing it would be his opponent's batting average (AVG). It looks like he might be starting to become a more hittable than he used to be. This worries me for a pitcher that relies on keeping the ball in the strike zone.

While David Wells may be exceptional at limiting walks, he's pretty average at everything else. A move to PETCO Park would certainly help him give up less home runs, but I doubt we'll see another 15 win season from him next year.

Yesterday it was reported that the Mets will trade Mike Cameron to the Padres for Xavier Nady. The trade is contingent on Mike Cameron successfully passing a vision test since his 2005 season ended prematurely after butting heads (literally) with Carlos Beltran. Let's take a look at how he might fare with a change of scenery.

The two nice things about Mike Cameron are that he has both power and speed. He's been a 25 Home Run / 30 Stolen Base guy on a few occasions. Unfortunately, as you can see from the graph above, he doesn't hit for average. He did however hit for a career high .273 last season, despite his falling walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K).

I do find this downward trend in his BB/K rather disturbing as it is nearing unacceptable levels. This decline was masked by a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which explains the career high batting average. Assuming his BABIP returns to a normal level next year, he'll probably hit closer to .240 than .270.

As for his power numbers, a move to PETCO Park certainly won't help him as it's the most difficult park to hit home runs in. Yet, I honestly don't see much of a decrease since he's played in Safeco Field and Shea Stadium the past 6 years which are also difficult parks to hit home runs in for right handed batters. Also, the Padres like to steal as much as any team, so I don't see him stealing any fewer bases. All in all, he should have a very typical Mike Cameron year; decent power and speed, with no consistency to get on base.

Nomar Garciaparra has had a rough couple of years. He went from being one of the premiere shortstops in the baseball, to an oft injured scapegoat. He didn't even get to celebrate a World Series championship with the team he spent so many years with. He's played only143 games the past two seasons, but how did a healthy Nomar Garciappara perform when he returned for the final two months of this past season?

Surprisingly it looks like he was back to his old self, as far as batting average goes. After he returned from his groin injury, he batted a very old-Nomar like .318. Not only was he hitting for average, but he was also hitting for power. In August and September he hit all of his 9 home runs.

If Nomar Garciappara can remain healthy for an entire season (and that's a big if), it looks like he still has the ability to be one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball. When he finally does play an entire season, I'm sure there will be a comeback player of the year award waiting for him.

Scott Eyre did something incredible today. He received one 10th place MVP vote to become the first relief pitcher to receive a vote without recording a single save. Please feel free to use this gem of trivia to stump everyone you know. Someone in the Baseball Writers' Association of America is a huge Scott Eyre fan. He actually had a nice season, going 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 68 plus innings of work. Let's see if he has any hope of receiving a vote next year.

Last season, Scott Eyre was able to get his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) down to a career low 3.4. While this is not a spectacular number, when coupled with his solid strikeout rate of 8.6, it makes him a successful pitcher.

He was also able to get his home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) down to a career low. He only gave up 3 home runs the entire season. This is where I see danger flags. Over the past couple season, Scott Eyre has transformed himself from a groundball pitcher to a flyball pitcher.

I think it's highly unlikely that he will be able to allow as few home runs as he did last season, especially with his increased fly ball tendencies. Even though this will lead to an increase in his ERA, I think he'll still be able to have a solid season. Unfortunately, I'd say the chances of Scott Eyre getting another MVP vote are just about zero.

Rumor has it that the Cubs are close to trading for the Marlins' center fielder Juan Pierre. We all know about Juan Pierre's speed. He was second in the National League in stolen bases and over the past four years he led the majors in them. In 2004 he hit for an excellent .326, but this past year he had his worst season, hitting only .276. Should Juan Pierre be expected to rebound next season?

Despite the downward trend in his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K), he's still in the top 20% of all batters. If it starts to dip any lower then we can start to worry. For now it looks like he just had an off year, much like the one he had in 2002.

The area he dropped off the most was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Just like his batting average, his BABIP was the worst of his career. What I find most odd about this is that 25% of his balls in play were line drives. That's a pretty high line drive percentage.

While it's not unusual for a batter to hit for a high line drive percentage and a lower batting average, I would consider it “unlucky”. Taking that into account and his lower than usual BABIP, I'd say Juan Pierre had a fairly unlucky season altogether. I'd expect Juan Pierre to rebound nicely in 2006.