Peter Gammons is reporting that the Marlins' Josh Beckett will be heading to Boston along with Mike Lowell in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and a player to be named. Yesterday I talked about Josh Beckett's considerable upside, but Mike Lowell is coming off the worst year of his career. What should Red Sox fans expect from Mike Lowell next season?

As you can see, Mike Lowell had an extremely low batting average (BA) last season which was way out of line with his career averages. Most likely this was the result of an equally low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .256. So, was he just incredibly unlucky last season, or was this indicative of something else?

I'm leaning strongly towards unlucky. His walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) remained a very good 0.79. Actually, the last time someone hit for such a low batting average with such a high BB/K was Paul Konerko in 2003, and he just had back to back 40 home run seasons. However, unlike Paul Konerko in 2003, Mike Lowell's Isolated Power (ISO) never reached previous levels at any point during the season.

I suspect that Mike Lowell's batting average will bounce back next year in a big way. As for his power numbers, I think he'll definitely hit more than his 8 home runs in 2005, but I'm hesitant to say he'll completely revert to 2004 form. Moving to Fenway Park may also give his power numbers a boost. Either way, there's no doubt in my mind that in 2005, Mike Lowell was just unlucky.

Apparently the Marlins are trying to move 2003 World Series hero Josh Beckett in an attempt to cut their payroll. The two possible trades would be Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Denks, or Peter Gammons suggests he could be sent to the Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez and either Jon Lester or Anibal Sanchez.

Josh Beckett has at times been compared to a young Roger Clemens. Unfortunately, much of his young career has been marred with blister problems. In 2005 he pitched in 29 games, the most of his career, and posted a 15-8 record with a 3.37 ERA. How much more can be expected of him?

Josh Beckett's strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have been on a slight decline the past two years, but it still remains an excellent 8.4. That's good enough to rank him among the top 10 of all starting pitchers in 2005.

Fortunately, any decrease in his K/9 has been offset by a greater decrease in his walks per 9 innings (BB/9). There is still a lot of room for improvement here and he's heading in the right direction. If you take a look at his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) graph below, you can see every year he has made slight improvements.

Josh Beckett will only be 26 years old next season. The only thing stopping him thus far has been his blisters and he was only bothered by them once last year. Each year of his young career he has taken small steps forward and I expect that next year he'll take yet another step forward.

Apparently the Padres are interested in re-acquiring David Wells from the Red Sox. Over the past four years David Wells is tied for the 8th most wins in baseball with a record of 61-29. Over that same time period, he has had the most run support of any player in baseball with 605 runs, a whopping 4.94 runs per start. What I'm trying to infer is that he's been the benefit of some pretty gaudy run support and maybe he hasn't pitched quite as well as his record indicates.

You certainly can't accuse David Wells of giving up many free passes. Over the past three years he's walked 61 batters in 91 starts. He only struck out 5.2 batters per 9 innings last year, but when you're walking only 1 batter every 9 innings, you can live with a lower strikeout rate. As you can see in the graph below, his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) is extremely high.

David Wells will be 43 years old next season, which is getting up there for a baseball player. It's hard to pinpoint any specific areas of decline on his graphs, but if I had to point to one thing it would be his opponent's batting average (AVG). It looks like he might be starting to become a more hittable than he used to be. This worries me for a pitcher that relies on keeping the ball in the strike zone.

While David Wells may be exceptional at limiting walks, he's pretty average at everything else. A move to PETCO Park would certainly help him give up less home runs, but I doubt we'll see another 15 win season from him next year.

Yesterday it was reported that the Mets will trade Mike Cameron to the Padres for Xavier Nady. The trade is contingent on Mike Cameron successfully passing a vision test since his 2005 season ended prematurely after butting heads (literally) with Carlos Beltran. Let's take a look at how he might fare with a change of scenery.

The two nice things about Mike Cameron are that he has both power and speed. He's been a 25 Home Run / 30 Stolen Base guy on a few occasions. Unfortunately, as you can see from the graph above, he doesn't hit for average. He did however hit for a career high .273 last season, despite his falling walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K).

I do find this downward trend in his BB/K rather disturbing as it is nearing unacceptable levels. This decline was masked by a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which explains the career high batting average. Assuming his BABIP returns to a normal level next year, he'll probably hit closer to .240 than .270.

As for his power numbers, a move to PETCO Park certainly won't help him as it's the most difficult park to hit home runs in. Yet, I honestly don't see much of a decrease since he's played in Safeco Field and Shea Stadium the past 6 years which are also difficult parks to hit home runs in for right handed batters. Also, the Padres like to steal as much as any team, so I don't see him stealing any fewer bases. All in all, he should have a very typical Mike Cameron year; decent power and speed, with no consistency to get on base.

Nomar Garciaparra has had a rough couple of years. He went from being one of the premiere shortstops in the baseball, to an oft injured scapegoat. He didn't even get to celebrate a World Series championship with the team he spent so many years with. He's played only143 games the past two seasons, but how did a healthy Nomar Garciappara perform when he returned for the final two months of this past season?

Surprisingly it looks like he was back to his old self, as far as batting average goes. After he returned from his groin injury, he batted a very old-Nomar like .318. Not only was he hitting for average, but he was also hitting for power. In August and September he hit all of his 9 home runs.

If Nomar Garciappara can remain healthy for an entire season (and that's a big if), it looks like he still has the ability to be one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball. When he finally does play an entire season, I'm sure there will be a comeback player of the year award waiting for him.

Scott Eyre did something incredible today. He received one 10th place MVP vote to become the first relief pitcher to receive a vote without recording a single save. Please feel free to use this gem of trivia to stump everyone you know. Someone in the Baseball Writers' Association of America is a huge Scott Eyre fan. He actually had a nice season, going 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 68 plus innings of work. Let's see if he has any hope of receiving a vote next year.

Last season, Scott Eyre was able to get his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) down to a career low 3.4. While this is not a spectacular number, when coupled with his solid strikeout rate of 8.6, it makes him a successful pitcher.

He was also able to get his home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) down to a career low. He only gave up 3 home runs the entire season. This is where I see danger flags. Over the past couple season, Scott Eyre has transformed himself from a groundball pitcher to a flyball pitcher.

I think it's highly unlikely that he will be able to allow as few home runs as he did last season, especially with his increased fly ball tendencies. Even though this will lead to an increase in his ERA, I think he'll still be able to have a solid season. Unfortunately, I'd say the chances of Scott Eyre getting another MVP vote are just about zero.

Rumor has it that the Cubs are close to trading for the Marlins' center fielder Juan Pierre. We all know about Juan Pierre's speed. He was second in the National League in stolen bases and over the past four years he led the majors in them. In 2004 he hit for an excellent .326, but this past year he had his worst season, hitting only .276. Should Juan Pierre be expected to rebound next season?

Despite the downward trend in his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K), he's still in the top 20% of all batters. If it starts to dip any lower then we can start to worry. For now it looks like he just had an off year, much like the one he had in 2002.

The area he dropped off the most was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Just like his batting average, his BABIP was the worst of his career. What I find most odd about this is that 25% of his balls in play were line drives. That's a pretty high line drive percentage.

While it's not unusual for a batter to hit for a high line drive percentage and a lower batting average, I would consider it “unlucky”. Taking that into account and his lower than usual BABIP, I'd say Juan Pierre had a fairly unlucky season altogether. I'd expect Juan Pierre to rebound nicely in 2006.

MLB.com asks this about free agent Abraham Nunez: “Nunez is one of the harder-to-read players on the market. Did he reach a new level in 2005, or was it a fluke?” Good question MLB.com. In Abraham Nunez's first season with over 400 at bats, he had a career high batting average of .285. That's a huge improvement over his previous career average of .238.

There's nothing special about his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K). He had a terrible 2004 season, but rebounded to career averages in 2005. This doesn't account for the increase in his batting average.

His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was the best best of his career. It was also way out of line with his career average. Furthermore, 25% of the balls he hit were line drives; once again, way out of line. Both of these do account for the rise in batting average.

I think it's highly unlikely Abraham Nunez will repeat his .285 batting average next season. He probably won't hit for a dismal .238, like he did in 2004 either. Teams looking for a versatile infielder or utility man could do a lot worse, but they should think of him more as a .250-.260 batter.

There's been a lot of talk recently about the Mariners potentially signing the Japanese catcher Kenji Jojima. I was able to track down some of his statistics.

Year	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB
1995	12	2	2	0	0	1	0
1996	58	5	14	2	4	9	1
1997	432	49	133	24	15	68	6
1998	395	53	99	19	16	58	5
1999	493	65	151	33	17	77	6
2000	303	38	94	22	9	50	10
2001	534	63	138	18	25	95	9
2002	416	60	122	18	25	74	8
2003	551	101	182	39	34	119	9
2004	426	91	144	25	36	91	6
2005	411	70	127	22	24	57	3

I wasn't able to obtain his fielding statistics, but he won 7 straight gold gloves at the catcher position. Not too shabby.

Taking a look at his slugging percentage (SLG) graph, you can see he is well above the MLB average using his Japanese statistics. This probably isn't the fairest comparison, but I think it still gives you a good idea of where he stands.

In addition to hitting for power, he can also hit for average. I wish I was able to obtain his walk and strikeout totals for 2005, but in 2003-2004 he showed an excellent walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) of 1.07. There's bound to be some drop off as he learns to adjust to new pitching, but it appears that Kenji Jojima should be capable of being one of the better offensive catchers in the Major Leagues.

Todd Jones really pissed me off last year. See, I had Guillermo Mota in my fantasy league and when he got injured, Todd Jones pitched so well that Guillermo Mota never got his closer job back. Now that Todd Jones is a free agent, should teams expect him to be the lights out pitcher he was last year?

Can you say career year? His 2005 strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) was way out of whack with the rest of his career. It's not because he learned to strike batters out, it's because he learned how not to walk them.

His walks per 9 innings (BB/9) were nearly 2 points lower than it was at any other point in his career. That's a drastic improvement for a veteran pitcher. In addition, he only allowed 2 home runs the entire season. This can be somewhat attributed to an increase in his ground balls induced. Even for an extreme ground ball pitcher, 2 home runs sounds more like an anomaly to me.

While it seems like Todd Jones was an entirely different pitcher this year, I would approach him with extreme caution next year. A large spike after years of consistency seems extremely fluky to me. Even if his improvement was for real, there's little doubt in my mind that he'll never be quite as good as he was in 2005.