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Nobody’s Stealing Bases in the Playoffs

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

I’ve got some terrible news for you. The crime rate is way down. I know that sounds like it should be good news, but when it comes to baseball, it’s just boring. Nobody’s stealing any bases during the playoffs (except for Randy Arozarena and, of course, Josh Naylor). The 34 total playoff games have seen just 26 steals on 35 total attempts. That’s 0.51 attempts per team per game, a huge drop-off from a regular season that averaged 0.91. The Blue Jays and Dodgers have combined for just two steals on two attempts. Boring.

On its own, that doesn’t seem too surprising. This is the fourth year in a row that teams have attempted fewer steals per game in the playoffs than in the regular season. The reasons behind this are easy enough to understand. First, we have a logistical hurdle. Runs are harder to come by during the playoffs. This year, we’ve seen 4.45 runs per team game during the regular season and just 4.02 during the playoffs. On-base percentage is down 11 points, which means fewer baserunners and fewer stolen base opportunities to start with. Next, we’ve got the risk aversion angle. Those baserunners are a more precious commodity at a time when the stakes are at their highest. Running into an out on the bases is a very loud unforced error, the kind of thing you get roasted for in the papers the next morning. It’s a lot harder to see how much potential value you’re leaving on the table by just staying put. I feel confident that I’ve never read an article roasting a player for not trying to steal.

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Blake Snell Dominates Brewers as Dodgers Take NLCS Game 1

Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Say what you want about Blake Snell. You may not find his Only Use Strike Zone in Case of Emergency pitching style fun to watch, but in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series, the Brewers found it even less pleasant to hit against. Snell carved through a Milwaukee lineup that scored 22 runs in the NLDS like a knife through nothing at all, ending his night by retiring 17 straight. He faced the minimum over eight innings in an absolutely dominant performance as the Dodgers beat the Brewers, 2-1, to take a 1-0 lead in the NLCS.

A prolonged bout of shoulder inflammation limited Snell to just 11 starts and 61 1/3 innings this season, but over those 11 starts, he was excellent, running a 2.35 ERA and 2.69 FIP. He’d been even better in the playoffs, earning wins against the Reds and Phillies and allowing just two runs, five hits, and five walks while striking out 18. On Monday night, he made those performances look like warmup outings. Snell went eight innings for just the second time in his entire career, and finished with 10 strikeouts, no walks, and one hit. That one hit was a weak line drive that third baseman Caleb Durbin dumped into center field in the third inning. Durbin then broke for second way too early, allowing Snell to throw over to first and catch him easily at second. “You gotta disrupt it,” said Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy between innings. “You gotta do something. He looks really sharp.” The Brewers didn’t do anything.

It wasn’t surprising to see Snell dealing, but it was surprising to see him not walking anyone. The game plan for the Brewers was simple, if difficult to execute. They had the lowest chase rate and the sixth-highest walk rate in baseball this season. They needed to be patient and force Snell to throw the ball in the zone. The Dodgers wanted the same thing. “I can’t have him nibble,” said Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts before the game. Snell didn’t nibble. He hit the zone 50% of the time, well above his regular season rate of 44%, and only a hair under the major league average of 51%. It was just the third time in the past two seasons that he’d gone without a base on balls. His changeup was particularly devastating, and he threw it 37% of the time, the second-highest rate of his entire career. Between innings, he sat on the bench and flipped through a half-inch three-ring binder that held either scouting reports or notes for an AP chemistry midterm. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mariners Didn’t Challenge That Play at the Plate, So We Challenged It for Them

Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

It was really close. On Sunday, in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, in the top of the first inning, with one out and runners on first and third, once and future hero playoff hero Jorge Polanco hit a bouncer to the third baseman. The runner on third was going on contact, but the runner on third was Cal Raleigh, and while relatively quick for a catcher, the Sultan of Squat is not exactly known for his speed. Had the ball been hit anywhere other than directly at a corner infielder, he might have beaten it easily. Instead, Addison Barger’s throw beat Raleigh to the bag by at least three metres (the game was in Canada, after all). But it was still really close.

The throw arrived in plenty of time, and it was by no means off target. To make sure he ran no risk of hitting the runner, Barger wisely threw the ball toward the right side – the first base side – of catcher Alejandro Kirk’s body. The throw wasn’t high either, but it did arrive at shoulder height. Raleigh was running as hard as he could, and in the time it took Kirk to swing his catcher’s mitt from high on his right side to low on his left side, he’d closed the distance to roughly one metre. Then Kirk made an important decision. With Raleigh bearing down on him, he chose not to keep swinging the glove down and toward the plate. He reached out for a high tag and swept the left side of his body out of the way in the same moment. Self-preservation undoubtedly played a role in the decision. It cost him valuable centimetres (God, this feels wrong), and it very nearly allowed Raleigh to sneak his right cleat between Kirk’s legs and onto home plate before his torso crashed into the mitt. For the briefest of moments, the two catchers looked like colliding galaxies, smashing then spinning together as their gravitational fields intertwined:

In real time, the play went from looking like a sure out to an impossibly close call. Maybe Raleigh got his foot in there and maybe he didn’t. The call on the field was out, and unbelievably, the Mariners declined to challenge it. The video never got dissected by the replay room in New York. The chief marketing officer of Zoom Communications, Inc. surely wept. Read the rest of this entry »


Brewers Best Cubs in Game 5 Bullpen Battle to Advance to NLCS

Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The house always wins. In the National League Divisional Series between the Brewers and the Cubs, the home team won every game. Game 5, in which both teams ran out of trusted starters and turned to their bullpens, ended up being the lowest scoring game of the series. The scoring was limited to four solo home runs, and although the Cubs hit 57 more homers than the Brewers during the regular season and two more during this NLDS, the Brewers powered up when it counted. With home runs from William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, and Brice Turang, they beat the Cubs, 3-1, and will host the Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Monday.

Just as they’d done during the regular season, the two teams came as close as they possibly could to splitting the series. The Cubs took the regular season series, 7-6, and the Brewers have now taken the Divisional Series, 3-2, leaving the teams tied at nine. The Cubs will return to Chicago and ponder how to improve a roster that now has a massive, Kyle Tucker-shaped hole in the outfield. The Brewers are headed to the Championship Series for the fourth time in franchise history and the first time since 2018, when they lost to the Dodgers. After seven years, they’ll have the chance for revenge.

Although bullpen games involve plenty of mixing and matching, the early plans seemed pretty well scripted. Milwaukee came out of the gate with the big guns, hoping Trevor Megill could be the first pitcher of the entire series to hold the Cubs scoreless in the first inning, before Pat Murphy looked to Jacob Misiorowski for four. After that, the Brewers had the rest of their bullpen ready to match up, thanks to an off day on Friday. “The pitching guys, myself and Matt Arnold, we just sat in a room and just talked about the possibilities and considered a ton of factors,” said Murphy in the pregame press conference. “But we settled on Megill. He’s going to pitch tonight, regardless.” Read the rest of this entry »


Aaron Judge and the Greatest Postseasons of All Time

Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

You may think you’ve already heard enough about Aaron Judge’s heroics during this postseason, especially considering that he wasn’t able to keep his team from getting knocked out barely a week into October. Heroes usually do a more thorough job when saving the day. I’m sure you’ve heard a lot about Judge’s 2025 playoff excellence. But I’d argue that you haven’t heard enough, because there’s a bit of context I’d like you to consider. That context? The entirety of postseason history.

Over the course of the American League Divisional Series against the Blue Jays, Judge batted .600. If you factor in his .354 batting average against the Red Sox in the Wild Card round, he batted an even .500 over 31 plate appearances this postseason. Now let’s head over to our handy-dandy postseason leaderboard. If you set a minimum of 30 PAs, you’ll find that Judge just ran the third-highest batting average ever over a single postseason; his .581 on-base percentage is the second highest. His 253 wRC+ is the 14th highest in postseason history (just behind the 255 mark that teammate Giancarlo Stanton put up in 2020). By that standard, Judge just produced one of the greatest postseason performances ever.

Greatest Postseason Batting Lines
Rank Season Name Team PA HR AVG wRC+
1 2008 Manny Ramirez LAD 36 4 .520 331
2 1968 Lou Brock STL 31 2 .464 312
3 1989 Rickey Henderson OAK 44 3 .441 308
4 2024 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP 30 4 .423 303
5 1990 Billy Hatcher CIN 31 1 .519 294
6 2023 Yordan Alvarez HOU 49 6 .465 293
7 2004 Carlos Beltrán HOU 56 8 .435 284
8 1989 Will Clark SFG 39 2 .472 284
9 1967 Carl Yastrzemski BOS 30 3 .400 276
10 1978 Reggie Jackson NYY 45 4 .417 262
11 2002 Barry Bonds SFG 74 8 .356 259
12 1984 Alan Trammell DET 37 3 .419 256
13 2020 Giancarlo Stanton NYY 31 6 .308 255
14 2025 Aaron Judge NYY 31 1 .500 253
15 1980 Willie Aikens KCR 37 4 .387 253
Minimum 30 plate appearances

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All You Need Is Judge: Slugger Powers Yankees To Win Over Blue Jays in ALDS Game 3

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — Aaron Judge didn’t deserve the rumblings. After he struck out with the bases loaded on Saturday in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Blue Jays, Yankee fans started to grumble that maybe he just didn’t have it in the postseason. It’s true that he’d struggled in 2020 and 2022, but Judge had excelled in the playoffs earlier in his career, and he came into Game 3 of the ALDS on Tuesday night with a career postseason wRC+ of 116. He hit three home runs during the Yankees’ World Series run just last year, including a game-tying shot in Game 3 of the ALCS.

On Tuesday night, with a performance that would be eye-opening if it had come from just about any other player in baseball, Judge pushed his batting average in the 2025 postseason to an even .500. He went 3-for-4 with an intentional walk and a couple of great plays in right field, and for the rumblers and grumblers with short memories, he launched a mammoth, game-tying, season-saving, signature home run, pulling the Yankees back from the abyss and into Game 4 with a 9-6 victory over the Blue Jays. Read the rest of this entry »


The Hard-Luck Losing Pitchers of 2025

Charles LeClaire, Neville E. Guard, Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

This season, four different starters suffered a loss in which they went exactly six innings, struck out exactly six batters, and allowed exactly seven hits, three earned runs, and no unearned runs. Three of them faced the exact same number of batters. But those four pitchers all finished with different pitching lines because they all walked a different number of batters. Our regular season database goes back to 1871, and it contains 241,730 games, each of them unique. In 1927, Bob Smith set a record by facing a whopping 89 batters in a 4-3, 22-inning loss to the Cubs. In 2021, Pablo López became the first starter ever to be charged with a loss after plunking the one and only batter he faced. There may be 50 ways to leave your lover and 5,000 ways to die, but the various ways to lose a baseball game are unconstrained by any such limits.

I could keep on going. In 1959, Harvey Haddix was perfect through 12 innings, then lost the game and the perfecto in the 13th. Five years later, Ken Johnson of the Houston Colt .45s pitched the only complete-game no-hitter in history to end as a loss. I bring up these performances because, watching these playoffs, I can’t help but think about pitchers who earn losses despite pitching brilliantly. Just last night in the NLDS matchup between the Dodgers and Phillies, Jesús Luzardo threw six scoreless innings and retired 17 batters in a row, but he took the loss when two inherited runners scored. Last week, Nick Pivetta took the loss after allowing two runs over five innings to the Cubs, and on the same day, Gavin Williams took a loss for the Guardians because he allowed two unearned runs over six innings.

Today, we’re specifically looking for the pitchers who put up great numbers across all of their losses during the 2025 season. This doesn’t necessarily mean the pitchers who had the worst run support or defense behind them overall. It just means that specifically during the games they went on to lose, they pitched particularly well. Hard luck losses will always happen. As Jacob deGrom can tell you from long experience, any pitcher good enough to hold the other team to a single run will eventually suffer a 1-0 loss. (In fact, all five of the top spots on that particular Stathead search belong to Hall of Famers, with Walter Johnson and Nolan Ryan tied at 63. Amazingly, Johnson, the second-winningest pitcher of all time, also lost 13 games in which he didn’t allow a single earned run, the highest mark ever.) But it takes a confluence of factors to end the season with great numbers across all of your losses. Read the rest of this entry »


Brewers Blow Out Cubs With First Inning Explosion in NLDS Game 1

Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The Brewers and the Cubs played nine innings of baseball on Saturday, but Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series was decided before the end of the first. Every series starts off with its share of questions. Did the Brewers have enough pitching to withstand injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Shelby Miller? Could Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong locate the MVP form they’d showed earlier this season? How would a Brewers offense that loves to work the count fare against a strike-throwing Cubs pitching staff? Would the Brewers be rusty after a five-game layoff? Would the Cubs regret starting Matthew Boyd on short rest after he threw just 58 pitches against the Padres on Tuesday? In Game 1, those last two questions were all that mattered.

The Brewers were not rusty, and Boyd may well have been. The Cubs jumped out to an early lead, but in the bottom of the first, the Brewers exploded on Boyd like they’d spent the past five days packing themselves into a cannon. During the regular season, the Brewers scored only 9% of their runs in the first inning, the third-lowest rate in baseball. Maybe they were saving it all up for the playoffs. Milwaukee raced to a 6-1 lead in the first and extended it to 9-1 in the second. “I’m proud they came out ready,” said manager Pat Murphy during the game. “The guys came out ready to swing, and when they’re ready to swing, a lot of good things can happen. They’re a great bunch.”

By virtue of their first-round bye, the Brewers lined up ace Freddy Peralta to pitch Game 1. After an early hiccup, Peralta looked every bit the guy who led the NL with 17 wins and notched three of them against the Cubs. He missed well outside with a 95-mph fastball on the first pitch of the game, then came back with a belt-high heater over the center of the plate, which Chicago leadoff hitter Michael Busch fouled off. Peralta repeated the pattern: four-seamer well outside, belt-high four-seamer over the middle. Busch was ready for the second one. He turned on it and sent it 389 feet over the right field fence. Four pitches in, the Cubs had a 1-0 lead. Peralta recovered quickly, retiring the next three batters in order. He’d allow just one more base hit over the next four innings.

In the bottom of the second, Jackson Chourio squared to bunt on the first pitch from Boyd, then took it for a ball inside. Looking back, it’s tempting to wonder what would have happened had Boyd put the pitch in the strike zone. Maybe if Chourio would have actually bunted the ball, and maybe the whole game would have gone differently. But it was tight and Chourio pulled the bat back, then ripped the fourth pitch he saw down the third base line for a double. Brice Turang knocked Chourio in with a double of his own, lining the first pitch he saw on a hop off the right field fence. The Brewers had tied the game at one after five pitches. William Contreras ripped the next pitch just past a diving Ian Happ for a double into left field, scoring Turang. With doubles on three consecutive pitches, the Brewers grabbed a 2-1 lead. They were far from done.

Chicago pitching coach Tommy Hottovy walked out to settle down Boyd, who induced a grounder to short from Christian Yelich, then deepened his trouble by walking Andrew Vaughn. Much earlier than the Cubs would have liked, Michael Soroka started warming up in the bullpen.

Boyd broke Sal Frelick’s bat, inducing a weak grounder to second base. Nico Hoerner, who may well end up winning his second Gold Glove this winter, charged the ball and then inexplicably biffed an easy hop. The ball kicked past him, allowing Contreras to score. The Brewers still had runners on first and second with one out, now with a 3-1 lead. Boyd struck out Caleb Durbin with a four-seamer above the zone, then got ahead of Blake Perkins, 1-2. He was one strike from ending the inning, but Perkins worked an incredible 12-pitch at-bat, fouling off pitch after pitch, then ripping a line drive right back up the middle – the thing that both he and the Brewers love the most in the world – scoring Vaughn and moving Frelick to third. The Brewers had a 4-1 lead and Boyd’s day was over after 30 pitches and two-thirds of an inning.

Soroka came into the game with a simple mandate: stop the bleeding and keep the game close. Instead, he walked ninth hitter Joey Ortiz on four pitches, loading the bases and bringing Chourio back to the plate. This might be a good time to note that Chourio ran a 307 wRC+ with two homers in last year’s Wild Card Series, his only previous playoff games. He pushed that career postseason mark even higher, rocking a single through the left side of the infield to drive in two more runs. The Brewers led 6-1. Mercifully, Soroka got Turang to chase a high fastball for strike three.

The Brewers hit for 26 minutes in the first inning. They saw 45 pitches from two pitchers. They notched five hits, walked twice, and reached once via error. They put seven balls in play with a 72% hard-hit rate. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel pointed out that it was the first time they’d scored six runs in the first inning all season. The incomparable Sarah Langs noted that teams to score at least six runs in an inning had gone 113-1 in postseason history. With that last single off the bat of Chourio, Soroka’s job changed. It was no longer to keep the game within reach. It was to eat as many innings as possible in order to keep the Cubs from annihilating their bullpen in addition to falling behind in the best-of-five series.

Peralta allowed a single to Crow-Armstrong, but he needed just 12 pitches to retire the Cubs in the top of the second and give the Brewers the chance to get right back to hitting. After leading off the first with three straight doubles, Milwaukee led off the second with three straight singles.

Contreras singled to left, Yelich singled to right, and Vaughn singled to center. The bases were loaded and Aaron Civale got warm in the Cubs bullpen. Frelick lined out to left field on a ball that was too shallow for Contreras to tag up on, then Durbin dropped a duck snort into shallow center field, knocking in two. Seventeen Brewers had come to the plate. Thirteen had reached safely. Eight had scored. Perkins grounded out to first base, pushing the runners to second and third with two outs. Ortiz walked on four pitches, loading the bases again, and Counsell made the slow walk out to the mound. Soroka lasted just one third of an inning longer than Boyd. The job of eating innings fell to Civale, whom the Brewers traded to the White Sox for Vaughn back in June and whom the Cubs claimed off waivers at the end of August.

Chourio greeted Civale with another grounder right down the third base line, this one for an infield single to push the score to 9-1. However, it came with a price. Chourio missed nearly the entire month of August with a right hamstring strain, and he aggravated the injury as he hustled to beat the throw from Matt Shaw. Visibly distraught, he spoke to a trainer, then left the field, and walked back to the clubhouse. The Brewers announced that he would be evaluated further after the game. Turang struck out to end the inning, and the TBS broadcast announced that Brewers were the first team in playoff history with nine runs and 10 hits in the first two innings.

The Cubs and Brewers played seven more innings of more baseball. Peralta pitched brilliantly, though he surrendered another solo homer to Happ in the sixth inning. He left one out shy of a quality start, and the Milwaukee faithful rewarded him with a standing ovation. He gave up three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings, striking out nine, walking three, and allowing four hits. Civale filled his role excellently too, scattering three hits over 4 1/3 innings and allowing Counsell to ask the bullpen for just two more innings. Hoerner added another solo homer off Jared Koenig in the eighth inning before Nick Mears closed things out in the ninth.

The questions going into Game 2 will revolve around Chourio’s health and Chicago’s ability to bounce back from such a thorough drubbing. The Brewers possess a capable fill-in in Isaac Collins, who ran a 122 wRC+ as a rookie this season, but Chourio is an awfully hard player to replace. His three hits pushed his career wRC+ in the playoffs to 361, and if the hamstring injury is anywhere near as serious as it looked, it’s hard to imagine him returning in time to play against the Cubs. With the 9-3 victory, the Brewers drew the season series with the Cubs even at 7-7. The good news for the Cubs is that they’ll have a day off before Game 3, allowing their bullpen to get some rest. Although Boyd threw just 30 pitches, he seems unlikely to go on short rest in Game 4.


Life of Pi: Tigers vs. Mariners ALDS Preview

Rick Osentoski and Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Did you know that Tarik Skubal attended Seattle University? What’s that? You knew it already? Oh. Well, that’s great. Kudos to you for doing the research. I hope you are prepared to have that one fact bludgeoned so deeply into your brain over the next week that decades hence, when all the other thoughts start falling out of your aged skull, it will be all that remains. “Seattle Redhawks, only D-I program to offer him a scholarship,” you’ll mutter over and over like a protective spell as you putter through the halls of the nursing home. After defeating the Cleveland Guardians in the Wild Card round, the Detroit Tigers are headed to Seattle for the American League Divisional series. Tarik Skubal is coming home. Let’s get to the preview.

With the second-best record in the American League, the rested Seattle Mariners certainly look to be the clear favorite. They’ve got three (or maybe four) great starters lined up. They’ve got a top-10 bullpen by both ERA and FIP. Their team 113 wRC+ gives them the third-best offense in baseball. They finished the season by winning 17 of their last 21 games. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that all 17 of those wins came against non-playoff teams. Before that 21-game stretch started, the Mariners lost four straight, also to non-playoff teams. Their final act of the regular season was getting swept at home by the Dodgers. The Mariners finished the season with just three more wins than the Tigers and a run differential advantage of just five runs. Their Pythagorean records are identical. These teams are not as different as you may think.

During the Wild Card round, the Tigers were forced to empty their bag of tricks in order to hold off a Guardians team that stole the AL Central crown from under their noses. They relied on their ace, they coaxed just enough great relief performances out of a less-than-great bullpen, they played small ball, they induced errors, they bafflingly pinch-hit for their best hitter. During Game 3, they even got desperate enough to try scoring some runs. Will they come into the ALDS depleted, or will they finally regain the swagger they had when they went into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball? Read the rest of this entry »


Mason Miller and the Impossibility of True Unhittability

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

It’s been six days since Mason Miller let somebody hit the baseball. Actually, that’s not quite true. Until the right-hander caught Michael Busch with a literal back-foot slider in the eighth-inning of yesterday’s Wild Card matchup between the Padres and the Cubs, it had indeed been five days, three relief appearances, and 11 batters since anybody came to the plate against Miller and did something other than strike out. However, six of those 11 victims managed to get their bats on the ball. Three of them did it twice. It’s just that over the past week, nobody has been able to figure out how to square up one of Miller’s disappearing sliders or 102 mph fastballs – yes, his four-seamer has averaged 102 mph over the last three outings – well enough to achieve so much as a tapper back to the mound. Busch’s unfortunate foot snapped the streak at 11, but it did nothing to look Miller look more hittable.

In a fun twist, the all-time record for consecutive strikeouts (or at least since 1961, when full play-by-play data became available) belongs to Miller’s teammate Jeremiah Estrada. Estrada struck out a 13 straight batters across three appearances just last May. In fact, he struck all 13 of them out swinging.

The play log from Estrada's streak. It reads like this: 
Nick-Gordon out on a dropped third strike.
Jake-Burger struck out swinging.
Jesus-Sanchez struck out swinging.
Gleyber-Torres struck out swinging.
Anthony-Rizzo struck out swinging.
Giancarlo-Stanton struck out swinging.
Alex-Verdugo struck out swinging.
Aaron-Judge struck out swinging.
Stuart-Fairchild struck out swinging.
Will-Benson struck out swinging.
Luke-Maile struck out swinging.
Jonathan-India struck out swinging.
Nick-Martini struck out swinging.
Spencer-Steer singled to left (Liner).
Mike-Ford flied out to center.

That’s a pleasurably tidy play log. Estrada’s streak only ended because, when he entered the game on May 31 against the Royals, manager Mike Schildt intentionally walked the first batter he faced.

Anytime Miller is on the mound, the general feeling among spectators is astonishment that anyone ever manages to put the ball in play. He just threw an immaculate inning. Since his debut in 2023, Miller has allowed just 0.55 hits per inning, the lowest rate among all 473 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. And now, following a 2025 season in which his 45.2% whiff rate ranked second among all pitchers, Miller has ascended to a higher plane. His whiff rate over the past three games has rocketed up to an absurd 61.9%.

Now that the streak has run its course, it’s time to celebrate the six marvels who managed to connect with one of his pitches, no matter how inconsequential the contact. We’ll count down, from the weakest contact to the strongest, starting with Moisés Ballesteros getting the smallest amount of baseball possible it’s possible to get. You can just hear the sound of the foul tip before the ball hits the glove.

Honestly, it’s impressive that Ballesteros got enough of this pitch to make a sound at all. This is a 102.6 mph fastball well above the strike zone. It came in at a height of 3.76 feet, and this season, Miller ran a whiff rate of 55.9% on fastballs 3.7 feet or higher. Even pitchers who don’t throw 102 lean on four-seamers above the zone because it’s so hard for batters both to lay off it and to hit it. This pitch is why we care about vertical approach angle. This pitch is why we’ll never forget the climax of A League of their Own. The pitch to Ballesteros technically went down as a whiff because Statcast counts foul tips for strike three as whiffs rather than fouls, but we don’t have to take that away from him. He gently brushed the baseball, and for that we honor him.

Next up is Dansby Swanson, who got a tiny bit more of the pitch and a whole lot more of catcher Freddy Fermin.

You may think Miller fooled Swanson with a 2-2 slider away, and he may well have done so. It’s also equally possible that Swanson really was trying to keep an eye out for the slider. It’s just that when you know you might see 104 up above the strike zone, trying to look for the slider and actually staying back long enough to be on time for it are two very different propositions. The shortstop was just able to slow down enough to throw the bat head at the ball. It was a great accomplishment, and because of it, Fermin will surely hold a lifelong grudge.

Here’s another two-strike slider that just barely avoided ending up as strike three. Ahead 1-2, Miller missed high and inside to Seiya Suzuki, and this shows you why pitchers tend to think hard in, soft away.

Batters need to catch the ball much further in front of the plate when it’s on the inside, so the fact that Suzuki was way out in front of this pitch didn’t hurt him too much. He still caught the smallest piece of it – so small that he barely kept it from sticking in the catcher’s mitt – but at least he caught that piece with the barrel of his bat. Did he barrel this pitch up? Absolutely not. Did he strike out anyway on the very next pitch? You bet he did.

We’re done with the foul tips now. Up next, we have a group of four regular-looking foul balls. These ones stretch back to Miller’s last regular season appearance against the Diamondbacks on September 27, and they’re all just fastballs that nobody could catch up to.

This is why pitching coaches tell pitchers aim for the middle of the zone and dare batters to hit it, and this is the benefit of throwing harder than just about anyone who has ever lived. Miller didn’t necessarily fool anybody here. They were geared up for the fastball and they got it. It was just too much to handle. Swanson, Connor Kaiser, Carson Kelly, and even contact maven Geraldo Perdomo are doing all they can just to slap this ball into the seats on the opposite side and live to see another pitch. Swanson took a robust hack and looked out to the mound as if to say, “I’m on to you, Mason Miller.”

He was not, in fact, onto Miller, but you can see why this foul felt like a victory.

Now we’re into the really impressive fouls. Here’s Kelly again, very nearly keeping the ball in the field of play!

Kelly is out ahead of a slider on the inside corner here, and he sends a weak popup to the right side that just drifts out of play despite Luis Arraez’s heroic efforts to reel it in. Seriously, Arraez tossed himself over a thick concrete barrier. He must have ended up with a serious bruise, and he took his frustration out on the netting. I wrote about this exact kind of batted ball back in May. Normally when you’re ahead of a pitch, you hit it to the pull side, but sometimes you’re so far ahead that you have to drop your bat head to slow down. At that point, you can’t help but pop it up the other way. If Kelly had been above the ball, he would have hit a weak grounder to the left side – or, more likely, fouled it straight down and off his own foot – but since he was underneath it, he came just a few feet (or one gust of wind) from achieving the impossible dream of facing Mason Miller and coming away with a weak popout.

Last up is Geraldo Perdomo, long one of the best hitters in baseball when it comes to making contact, and more recently, somehow one of the best hitters in baseball, period. Here’s Perdomo genuinely rifling a slider to the pull side.

This ball came off the bat at 100 mph. Perdomo was still way out in front of it. It was probably foul by a good 25 feet at the moment it passed first base. Still, that’s the best contact anyone has made against Miller in nearly a week. Perdomo would go on to strike out like all the others, but he can take pride in knowing that he’s the last player ever to actually hit the ball hard off Miller.