Since 2019, Rafael Devers has put up 25.2 WAR for the Red Sox. Over that span, only one other player has even reached 10.0; it was Xander Bogaerts, who is no longer with the team. With the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Devers has never finished worse than second on the team in WAR. That includes last season, when he recorded 4.1 WAR despite playing through injuries to both shoulders. He was arguably the worst defensive third baseman in baseball, but he hit so well that he was inarguably the best player on the team, the face of the franchise, and one of the most productive third basemen in the game.

The Red Sox traded away Mookie Betts. They let Bogaerts walk. They kept Devers. When erstwhile chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom signed Devers to a 10-year, $313.5 million contract extension in January 2023, Michael Baumann’s headline read, “The Red Sox Have Finally Extended Rafael Devers.” He’s the longest-tenured member of the team, and only Kristian Campbell, whose extension contains team options for 2033 and 2034, is under contract further into the future. The Red made Devers the cornerstone, but in something straight out of a Suzy Eddie Izzard bit, they have spent the past couple months trying to dig him up and plop him down in different spots. The moves make baseball sense. That’s not the problem. The problem is communication. The team seems to be doing its level best to alienate its biggest star, repeatedly saying one thing in public, and then another to Devers in private. Read the rest of this entry »

I didn’t expect this from Wilyer Abreu. Don’t get me wrong. I love Abreu and I spent much of the offseason writing about him. I even developed a (literal) sliding scale to tabulate just how often and how intensely he dirtied his uniform. Abreu is a high-effort player who absolutely deserved the Rookie of the Year votes and Gold Glove he got last season. But I worried about him too. Abreu has done nothing but hit and play great defense since his 2023 debut, but he’s a lefty who’s been strictly platooned, and he only recently reached a full season’s worth of big league plate appearances. He seemed like a regression candidate, and that was before a gastrointestinal illness cost him a chunk of spring training and several pounds. The Red Sox weren’t even sure he’d be ready to start the season, but he was and he’s raked from day one. After this hot start, should we be all-in on Abreu?

First, I was worried a bit about Abreu’s defense. I didn’t expect him to turn into a pumpkin. He really was the best right fielder in baseball last season by pretty much any measure you can think of, and I expected him to remain great. Although he’s not a speedster, his instincts and effort have allowed him to make three three-star catches, two four-star catches, and one five-star catch this season. However, a ton of his value last year came from nine assists, and as I wrote in the Positional Power Rankings, that’s a volatile stat. You can’t just expect someone to rack up assists year after year, if for no other reason than the fact that word gets out about a rocket arm like Abreu’s. Those gaudy out totals would turn into smaller credits for keeping runners from taking extra bases. Or so I thought. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s rough being a reliever. Your whole career is a small sample. Emmanuel Clase has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since pretty much the moment he set foot on a major league mound in 2019, but over his entire career, he’s thrown just 338 innings. Our leaderboard says that total has been bested in 534 different player-seasons. That’s 534 times that one single player in one single season threw more innings than Clase has over his whole career. Clase set a personal best by throwing 74 1/3 innings last season, and on the individual season leaderboard, that total put him in a 79-way tie for 20,484th place. A small sample size means high variance. Over his entire career, Clase has never finished a season with an xFIP below 2.18 or above 3.42, which is pretty stable for a reliever. But after running a microscopic 0.61 ERA last season, his ERA is currently a so-big-you-can-see-it-from-space 5.51. Five-run swings are decidedly less stable.

When things go wrong to this degree, it’s usually because a combination of factors have conspired to make it happen. When you’re as good a pitcher as Clase, it takes both luck and skill to get results this bad. Our focus today will be on the extraneous factors. You know what else is subject to wild variations in short samples? Defense. And defense is letting Clase down in a big way. We’re here today because Mike Petriello asked me to look into something. Petriello is Major League Baseball’s Director of Stats and Research, and it’s my understanding that as such, I am legally required to investigate any statistical anomalies he assigns me. Here’s what he sent my way:

When Clase was on the mound in 2024, the Guardians racked up 5 Outs Above Average. They were great defensively. This season, even though he’s only pitched roughly one-fifth of the innings he did last year, Guardians fielders are already all the way down at -4. That’s an absurdly big swing. How is that even possible? Is it just luck? Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, James Fegan wrote a great story at Sox Machine about how Chase Meidroth became one of the most patient players in baseball. The White Sox want Meidroth to be more aggressive, but after a recent call-up, he’s running a minuscule 17.3% chase rate. He ran that exact same chase rate last season in Triple-A, and it ranked fifth lowest among the 381 players who saw at least 500 pitches outside the zone. Here at FanGraphs, Michael Baumann also covered Meidroth’s overabundance of patience a couple weeks ago. Unsurprisingly, Baumann’s article featured something Fegan’s didn’t: a paragraph about nominative determinism. The defining characteristic of Meidroth’s profile is that he’s a Chase who doesn’t chase. But Meidroth isn’t the only Chase in baseball. Maybe he’s an outlier. Maybe the other players named Chase rack up chases, if only out of a sincere desire to obey the fifth commandment.

Chase Utley was the first major league Chase. He debuted in 2003, conveniently just a year after Sports Info Solutions started tracking pitches. That means that we can track the chase rate of every Chase who’s ever played. I went through his year-by-year chase rates in order to calculate a league-adjusted figure, which we’ll call Chase Rate Plus for the remainder of this article. Utley’s Chase Rate Plus was 88, 12% below the league average, and it helped him run a walk rate that was 6% above the league average. In other words, the first Chase in history didn’t chase much either. What about the rest of the bunch? Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been writing about the strike zone for a few years now, and if there’s been one overarching theme to my work so far, it’s the inescapable takeaway that umpires are excellent at what they do. When Major League Baseball introduced PITCHf/x in 2008, umpires got 84.1% of ball-strike calls right according to the Statcast strike zone. Over the intervening years, while ever-nastier stuff and a revolution in pitch framing had made their jobs harder and harder, umpires did nothing but get better. Accuracy broke 92% in 2021 and inched its way toward 93% over the next two seasons. That trend of improving every year finally changed in 2024.

As I wrote yesterday, last season marked the first time that umpires got worse rather than better. That’s interesting enough on its own, but right when it was time to wonder whether they’d gotten as good as they could get, the rules of the game changed. Over the offseason, a new labor agreement included a change to the way that umpires are assessed by the league. The grading got much tighter, reducing the buffer around the edges of the strike zone from two inches on the outside of the zone to three-quarters of an inch on either side. The strike zone is the same, but umpires are being judged much more tightly. Let’s dive into the numbers and see what looks different so far this season. Here’s a graph that shows overall accuracy in every season of the pitch tracking era.

The yellow line shows overall accuracy, and it’s ticked back up from 2024. Even though it’s early in the season, a time when umpires are at their least accurate, they’re still doing better than they did last year. Accuracy fell from 92.81% in 2023 to 92.53% in 2024, and is now back up to 92.63%. In fact, if you look only at March and April stats – which is more fair, because umpires are worse earlier in the season – you’ll find that umpires just had their best opening month of the season ever. They called 82% of pitches in the shadow zone correctly. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in January, I wrote an article called “Unfuzzing the Strike Zone.” The premise was pretty simple. As umpires have grown more accurate, as the edges of the strike zone have gotten clearer and more distinct, the strike zone has effectively gotten smaller. Misses go both ways, but there’s a big difference between an incorrectly called ball and an incorrectly called strike. Calling a pitch inside the zone a ball doesn’t shrink the effective size of the zone, but calling a pitch outside the zone a strike does make it bigger. As long as a pitcher knows it’s possible to get a strike call out there, they’ll consider it part of the zone. Little did I know that as I was writing that article, Major League Baseball was preparing to test its exact premise.

The strike zone has steadily shed its fuzz over the past 23 seasons, but on Thursday, Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal reported in The Athletic that the league has decided to break out a sweater shaver. Over the offseason, the Major League Umpires Association came to a new agreement with MLB. Part of the agreement included tightening the standards by which ball-strike calls are graded.

Umpires used to have a two-inch buffer around the edge of the strike zone, meaning that if they’d missed a call by fewer than two inches outside the zone, the call would still go down as correct in their assessments. Having that buffer is necessary because calling balls and strikes is extraordinarily difficult. It’s extremely rare for an umpire to get every call right even in a single game. The new border is just three-quarters of an inch on either side. The league is demanding a less fuzzy strike zone. Read the rest of this entry »

I never thought I’d get to use the transit method. If that phrase rings a bell but you can’t quite place it, let me remind you about NASA’s Kepler space telescope, which spent nine years pointed out into space, observing stars. By measuring tiny dips in the brightness of those stars, scientists were able to detect the existence of thousands upon thousands of planets that orbited them. Those exoplanets blocked out some of the light when their orbit brought them between their star and Earth, and Kepler was attuned to interpret the minuscule effect of those shadows. Anyway, this is as close as I’ll ever come.

It happened in Seattle on Wednesday, and it started in the bottom of the seventh inning. The score was knotted at three at the beginning of the frame, but the Mariners quickly broke things wide open. J.P. Crawford knocked in two runs with a single past the third baseman, then Julio Rodríguez knocked in Crawford with a double to the deepest part of the ballpark. That brought Cal Raleigh to the plate with Rodríguez, briefly, on second. In the dugout, tuckered out from his 270-foot journey, Crawford did exactly what a high-performance athlete is supposed to do. He focused on recovery.

Raleigh took a Reid Detmers curve for a ball, then another for a strike. Rodríguez took off as soon as Detmers raised his right foot for the 1-1 pitch. The slider hit the outside corner and Raleigh was out in front of it, chopping it down toward the third baseman. Or rather, toward where third baseman Luis Rengifo would have been standing were he not covering third base. The steal attempt forced him over to the bag and he watched helplessly as the world’s easiest chopper floated right toward the vacancy he’d created. But that vacancy was soon to be filled. Rodríguez bore down on the base, putting him on a collision course with the ball. Or not. Read the rest of this entry »

It can be difficult to contextualize just how unusual James Wood’s offensive profile really is. He hits the ball so very hard. He hits the ball in the air so very never. In his major league debut last season, the Nationals outfielder put 198 balls into play. Only five of them were fly balls to the pull side. Of the 403 batters who put at least 100 balls in play last season, that 2.5% rate put Wood in 385th place. As for those five pulled fly balls, they turned into two home runs, two doubles, and one very loud flyout.

That seems like a promising avenue for further investigation, doesn’t it? The kind of batted ball that turns into an extra-base hit at roughly the same rate that dentists recommend, you know, brushing? If Wood could figure out how to pull the ball in the air with any sort of regularity, he’d be one of the game’s great sluggers. And yet here we are a month into the season: Wood has not at all figured that out, and somehow he’s one of the game’s great sluggers anyway. He’s running a 153 wRC+ and a top-10 isolated slugging percentage because his prodigious power allows him to get the absolute most out of one of the least optimized profiles in the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Do you know how many leaderboards we have here at FanGraphs? I don’t. I genuinely don’t. Just in our main offense, defense, and pitching leaderboards, I counted 78. That’s before you get into team stats, league stats, splits, spring training, the postseason, combined WAR leaderboards, NPB, KBO, the minors, college, the BOARD, and on and on. We have hundreds of leaderboards because you, the citizens of planet baseball, deserve them. If you want to know who’s leading the Florida State League in groundball-to-fly ball rate, it is your right to learn that Kyle Henley of my beloved Daytona Tortugas is somehow hitting a mind-boggling seven grounders for every ball he hits in the air. I didn’t think it was possible for a baseball player’s offensive profile to suffer from acrophobia, but here we are learning new things from the leaderboards every day.

We have three plate discipline leaderboards because we pull data from Sports Info Solutions, Pitch Info, and Statcast. The strike zone is (for now) three dimensional, and so is our coverage of it. I came to really appreciate this fact on Monday, when I got curious about which hitter was doing the best job of avoiding whiffs. According to SIS, Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner is leading all of baseball with a perfect, shining 100% contact rate inside the strike zone. Let’s stop for a moment and reflect upon this achievement. We have been playing baseball for over a month now. Over more than 100 plate appearances and nearly 400 pitches, Hoerner has yet to swing at a strike and miss. He is the only player in baseball who can make such a claim, and yet that claim is disputed nonetheless. Read the rest of this entry »

Jorge Polanco has always been a good hitter. He has a career 111 wRC+, and since he started getting regular playing time in 2016, he’s finished with a wRC+ below 100 only three times, one of which was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But he’s played 20 games so far this season, and he’s never had a 20-game stretch quite like this. He’s batting .377 with a 233 wRC+. How is Polanco – while injured – running the fifth-best xwOBA in baseball and second-best overall batting line?

As I mentioned, Polanco isn’t 100%. He underwent surgery in October to repair his left patellar tendon, and soreness in that knee has already cost him a couple of games this season. Polanco has also been dealing with a minor oblique strain, which has kept him from hitting right-handed since March 31. Polanco has a career 118 wRC+ as a lefty and a 95 wRC+ as a righty. That’s a legitimate platoon split, but it’s not big enough that we should have expected him to turn into Babe Ruth once he quit batting right-handed. Moreover, you have to imagine that the injury is slowing him down at least slightly, even from the left side. Maybe I’m wrong here, but it’s just hard to believe that any baseball swing could be completely unaffected by an oblique injury.

Just to recap, Polanco has a minor injury. He’s only batting left-handed and (with the exception of one plate appearance that ended with a strikeout) only facing righties. He’s also DHing and getting days off to protect the oblique. Oh, and he’s been the best hitter in baseball (non-Aaron Judge division). So let’s figure out what’s going on. We’ll start with the basics. Here are Polanco’s numbers from each of the five most recent seasons. Read the rest of this entry »