12:00

Dan Szymborski:  Take off every ‘ZIG’!!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: uh oh

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Relievers are always tricky! From my piece today, I think I’m valuing Kimbrel more highly than most of our readers.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I think at the level Kimbrel’s returned to, it does have value.

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We’re about a week away from the trade deadline, and so far, the stage has been a little quiet. So for a little mid-week action, we need to create our own little mise-en-scène, an activity I try to do around this time every year. These are not predictions of moves that will happen, but an exercise that seeks to make fair trades that benefit both the buying contenders and the selling also-rans. In the best-case scenario, we get some fun discussions of what things are possible.

The Oakland Athletics acquire SS Trevor Story from the Colorado Rockies for OF Brayan Buelvas, C Drew Millas, and 1B Greg Deichmann

I’m starting off with a trade that I don’t think either team would do. For Rockies fans, there may be some disappointment that Story doesn’t fetch a big-name prospect. I don’t think that kind of return is suitable at this point; that boat sailed last winter. And the other team isn’t trading for Story, but for two months of Story having a distinct down year.

The Rockies have offensive problems, but given the size of the outfield, I think that a raw talent with defensive upside like Buelvas has a lot of value in Coors, something they’ve been without quite often. While some would think of Nick Allen going in a trade like this, at this point, he’s too good to trade for a rental. Colorado likes defensive-minded catchers, so Millas makes sense here (and isn’t 32 like the team’s usual backstop of choice).

The A’s would likely balk because of money. Sorry Oakland, there aren’t enough (or good enough) prospects going to Colorado to include Elvis Andrus to “even up” the money involved. Story’s not really that expensive, but he’s still too costly for the A’s to make it up by either releasing minor leaguers or making them into a roguish band of lovable Dickensian pickpockets. Read the rest of this entry »

A surprisingly deep group of free-agent pitchers this winter became a little less so over the weekend, as Lance Lynn agreed to a two-year extension with the White Sox. The deal guarantees at least $38 million for the veteran hurler through the 2023 season and will pay him $18.5 million in each of ’22 and ’23, with the Sox holding an option for ’24 worth $18 million and a $1 million buyout.

If you happened to surf over to our in-house depth charts, you would find the White Sox only looking up at the Mets when it comes to pitching, and given that six of the 10 Mets listed are currently out with injuries, I’d prefer to have Chicago’s starting five if I’m the benevolent dictator of a contending team. The rotation is currently projected to finish with 19.3 WAR, topping the majors and enough to give the Sox one of the top 20 rotations since we survived the Y2K bug. That’s an impressive accomplishment considering that they’re currently projected to finish right around 900 innings, about a hundred short of the rest of that top 20. And as there are good reasons to think the contending years are just starting, Chicago has an obvious interest in keeping such a high-performing group together for years to come; Carlos Rodón is now the team’s only significant free agent this offseason.

It’s been an impressive reversal of fortune for Lynn, who didn’t attract a ton of interest in his first two go-arounds in free agency. After posting a 4.82 FIP in 2017 upon returning from Tommy John surgery, he only fetched a one-year contract with the Twins, but despite seeing his walks and ERA balloon to career-worsts in ’18, he closed a three-year pact with the Rangers, albeit with a pay cut. Ranking fifth in the AL in pitching WAR this season and only 1 2/3 innings shy of qualifying for the AL ERA title, he looks like a good bet to pick up Cy Young votes for his third consecutive season.

Could Lynn have made more in free agency? It’s a more complicated question than you think. It’s also one that he had little interest in testing.

“When you start getting older in this game, you realize that where you want to play and where you want to be and what kind of organization you want to be a part of weighs a lot,” he said Saturday. “Over the first half of the season, just being able to see how everybody goes about their business here, the group that’s here and the group that’s going to be here for the next couple of years, it seemed like a pretty easy fit.

It’s not surprising to see Lynn go for stability over uncertainty. By all accounts, Chicago has been a terrific fit for him, and he’s become a favorite of the fanbase. The White Sox would have been quite content to start Dane Dunning; last December’s swap was about them wanting Lynn rather than not wanting Dunning.

The ZiPS projections liked Lynn to have a gentle decline through his 30s, but not one that was likely to merit a gigantic payday. The aging curve for pitchers tends to be more attrition-based than for hitters, but a long-term deal for Lynn would start to get him into his late 30s, where you do start seeing a significant dropoff in skills along with the playing time. ZiPS would have given him a longer-term deal — four years, $84 million — but the $45.5 million projection for the next two years is not a galaxy apart from his $38 million guarantee.

Recent free-agent classes have been relatively shallow when it comes to pitching talent, but this autumn’s harvest looks far more bountiful. ZiPS projects eight pending free-agent pitchers —  Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Kevin Gausman, Zack Greinke, Eduardo Rodriguez, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman — to be worth at least three wins in the first years of their new deals, more than the seven it did for the previous two offseasons combined. There are some big names in that group, including several veterans also looking for two-or-three year deals. That also doesn’t include Noah Syndergaard, a pitcher who retains dizzying upside, and some interesting injury gambles in Corey Kluber and James Paxton. Given some of the name brand stars available, there was at least some risk Lynn ended up once again being a team’s consolation signing.

The league’s finances have to be considered as well. While the bottom line is certainly better than the Dickensian pauper status the owners usually suggest, it’s not at all clear that there are going to be a lot of teams hungry to spend this go-around. The vast majority of teams now appear to consider baseball’s de facto soft salary cap as if it were a harder one. On top of that, the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires on December 1, and unless the negotiations go shockingly smoothly, those talks will cast a shadow over baseball that’s likely to discourage teams from spending.

Whether or not he left money on the table, Lynn got a reasonable offer to stay on the team he wants to play for. The White Sox can now turn to the short-term need of picking up another bat and/or a second baseman for the season’s concluding chapters.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got bourbon; let’s do this.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I think you have to shop Morton

12:03

Dan Szymborski: And I’ strongly consider trading Heredia/Almonte if you can get an interesting sorta prospect for either. They’re not young

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Neither should be playing full-time rest of season or Arcia for that matter

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if there’s Smyly interest, but I’d at least inquire

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As we’ve passed both the literal midpoint of the season (1,215 games) and the philosophical one (the All-Star Game), it’s time to look back at the sample-size-fueled joy and sadness of the best and worst individual player projections for the first half. Projecting this season was particularly tricky for the obvious reason that the 2020 season was only 60 games and there was no minor league season at all. There’s not really much you can do to compensate for the lack of data; in the end, you’re likely to be less accurate no matter your approach. This isn’t as big a deal when it comes to the team projections, where there are enough players that you just hope the mistakes aren’t all in the same direction, but it can matter when you’re talking about a single player. (In hindsight, it makes me happy I never needed to project the 1995 season using replacement players, if that had actually happened.)

Let’s start with the hitters. Given the volatility of defensive measures, this is a comparison of the offensive numbers, not WAR as a whole. I’m setting 200 plate appearances as the minimum. Here are the position players ZiPS most underrated:

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The Atlanta Braves had justifiably high hopes coming into the 2021 season. Despite the early loss of Rookie of the Year runner-up Mike Soroka, the 2020 Braves won their third straight division title. If the postseason had been four innings shorter for Atlanta, they would have made their first World Series of the 21st century, 21 years after getting swept by the Yankees. Almost all of the key players returning fueled preseason optimism, but rather than tangling with the NL’s best teams, the Braves are in a grueling brawl to finish above the .500 line. The disappointment was already in full force before the team took their biggest hit yet: the sight of outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. being carted off the field after an attempt to make a leaping catch.

As with any injury, the initial beleaguered hope was that Acuña would rub some sweat or dirt or spit onto the painful area, walk it off, and be ready to jump back into the lineup. Everyone dodged a bullet — well, maybe not opposing pitchers — earlier this season when Acuña injured his abdomen after diving on a pickoff play but quickly returned to the lineup. Before the night was out, however, an MRI confirmed that this was a serious injury, a torn right ACL that will end Acuña’s season.

Acuña already looked like a special player before the season started, but he somehow looked even better this year, still just his age-23 season. Hitting .283/.394/.596 with 24 home runs, a 161 wRC+, and 4.0 WAR, he had already crammed a whole season’s worth of awesome into a half-season bag. The ZiPS projections had Acuña finishing with 44 homers and 7.2 WAR, the latter number one the best for all position players, vanquishing his competition in the Battle of the Legacies (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr.), though falling to best Shohei Ohtani when pitching contributions are included. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time as foretold has arrived.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: So prepare those complaints that people are asking questions about a topic you do not want them to.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s risky, but if you *really* like someone, it can be worth the risk. I dont’ think a hard/fast always/good-always/bad thing works

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks is certainly a possibility, but the Cubs may not want to trade him at a low point in his value. I do think the Dodgers will pick up a pitcher of course.

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We passed the halfway mark of the 2021 season over the long holiday weekend, providing a convenient spot to take a break, look back over the preseason projections, and hopefully not cringe too much about how the predictions are shaking out. Since this is the big midseason update, I used the full-fat ZiPS model for individual players in addition to the normal depth chart reconfiguring, with all the high-fructose algorithms rather than the leaner one used for daily updates.

I went through the American League on Wednesday, so now it’s the Senior Circuit’s turn.

The Mets only averaging 89 wins in the update might feel a bit disappointing, but that negative inclination is misplaced. ZiPS actually likes the team’s talent slightly more than it did in March, with the difference being that the injury situation has been worse than expected. Use the preseason playing time predictions with the up-to-date player projections, and ZiPS believes that New York would have a 93-win roster, good enough to be the third-best team in the National League.

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MLB passed the halfway mark of the 2021 season over the long holiday weekend, providing a convenient spot to take a break, look back over the preseason projections, and hopefully not cringe too much about how the predictions are shaking out. Since this is the big midseason update, I used the full-fat ZiPS model for individual players in addition to the normal depth chart reconfiguring, with all the high-fructose algorithms rather than the leaner one used for daily updates.

Let’s start with the American League standings.

I was making a “do not panic” argument on behalf of the Yankees back when they were 5–10 and some people were digging for their doomsday preparedness kits, and while it might not be time to find where you left those water purification tablets, the situation is bleaker now than it was three months ago. Not that the team is actually worse; New York has been on an 88-win pace in the games since that reference point. But an 88-win pace isn’t nearly enough to get out of an early-season hole in a division where there are three other teams with more than detectable pulses. Even projected to play solid baseball the rest of the season, the Yankees have gone from the favorite to the projected fourth-place team.

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Jose Altuve had the worst season of his career in 2020, hitting .219/.268/.344 in 48 games for the Astros for a 77 wRC+ and a near-replacement 0.2 WAR. It didn’t keep Houston from making the playoffs — albeit in a 16-team format with the Astros finishing below .500 — but his annus horribilis was one of the reasons the team dropped to 14th in the majors in runs scored, their worst showing since 2016. As a franchise cornerstone, the organization’s longest-tenured player, and the target of still-mysterious buzzer allegations, he naturally absorbed quite a lot of the heat generated by the sign-stealing scandal. To many, it was a case of just deserts, a cheater watching his legacy fade before his eyes. But reality cares not for made-for-TV storylines. In 2021, Altuve — and by extension the Astros — is having a great year.

A star falling off a cliff in their early 30s isn’t typical, but it does happen, and without any complications from getting caught stealing signs. One of the many cases that jumps out to me is that of Steve Sax, who went from having a nearly 50% chance of 3,000 hits in Bill James’ Favorite Toy to losing his job in the space of about a year; Sax faced more comical allegations of chicanery than Altuve. And one of this generation’s shining beacons of weapons-grade awesomeness, Albert Pujols, had a turning point in his early 30s when he transformed from Jimmie Foxx into Darin Ruf. Altuve did have a couple of relatively minor leg injuries in 2020, but neither could explain a season dreadful enough to have no silver lining.

Like Sax 30 years ago, a projection system (ZiPS in this case) had Altuve on an approach pattern to 3,000 hits. The combined effect of a shortened season and a performance that raised serious concerns about his future more than halved that milestone probability, from 40% to 19%. ZiPS, like the other projection systems, projected Altuve to have a significant bounce-back season in 2021, forecasting a .289/.355/.478, 3.6 WAR campaign. Most players would be quite happy with that result, but that line would only be a return to Altuve’s 2019 level, a drop from his 2014-2018 peak. Read the rest of this entry »