Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/30/21

Dan Szymborski: The final Szymchat has arrived.

Dan Szymborski: of the REGULAR SEASON.

Dan Szymborski: The madness will continue.

Peter Thomas: So Dan, why does god hate San Diego? Is this a job for a shaman or are is the universe just attempting to keep the balance after gifting us 200 days of 76° and sun?

Dan Szymborski: No doubt the last two months have been cruel. Like there’s a vengeful god who punishes the unsuccessful at the trade deadline.

Dan Szymborski: Uh, header?

Fred: If the Mariners played it differently and had JRod up, would they be more firmly in the playoff picture?

Dan Szymborski: They’re pretty firmly there!

Dan Szymborski: One hitter doesn’t make that much a difference, the biggest effect right now is the relative math.

Dan Szymborski: If I add 20 points to Seattle’s OBP and SLG, the playoff probs only go up four percentage points

Dan Szymborski: (Compared to the probs that you’ll see on the piece in the hopper!)

Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan what site do you use for the custom keycaps? I need me an old english D

Dan Szymborski: https://www.maxkeyboard.com/custom-backlight-compatible-keycap-for-bac…

Tree: Is Ohtani a little less valuable then some people might think if they just looked at his WAR, due to the fact that he’s taking over playing time that another pitcher would be able to provide WAR

Dan Szymborski: The whole idea is that it’s over replacement level.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not wins over wins over replacement level.

Dan Szymborski: And the pitcher he’s taking playing time from will be worse.

Dan Szymborski: How would the Angels be better if Ohtani was no longer “stealing” playing time from Reid Detmers or Packy Naughton.

David: LARGE TEXT

Dan Szymborski: I figured it out

Dan Szymborski: Now I can big dog all your text

Dan Szymborski:

2019 Belli Haircut: Bellinger went yard last night on a 96 mph fastball up in the zone… His struggles had to be the hair right???

Dan Szymborski: Well, if Ray can have magic pants

Lemma O’Farkus: It’s pronounced Bayziz Theorem, right?

Dan Szymborski: Shuh-shez-skee

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Kelenic needs a nickname that rhymes.  Any ideas?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not THAT hard since it’s two syllables

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, but I can’t think of any that are super closer

Dan Szymborski: Just almost rhymes like pelvic or celtic

Ryan: Will the angels have enough financial flexibility to bring in 2 arms like Stroman/Gausmann this offseason? Would that be enough to get them to the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: They ought to, but it’s more willingness than inability

Christian: In your playoff odds article yesterday I was shocked how skeptical ZiPS remains of the Mariners favoring them to win only one of their 4 remaining games. Does ZiPS still prefer the A’s and Angels over the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but these are slight differences from 50/50

Dan Szymborski: they’re like coin flips but the coin has a booger on it

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS expects a 1.47-1.53 record from Seattle in last series

brian: just started taking a forecasting class and woof, much respect to you and other projection system authors

Dan Szymborski: I like the part where you said nice things!

Matt: Will the Tigers be a playoff team next year

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s still a stretch, but they’re INTERESTING

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that this winter is the period to do it rather than next winter, but they’re probably close enough that being aggressive in FA COULD get them close enough to be playoff-interesting

OddStats: Have you/anyone at FG done a study on the efficacy of resting young players in their prime?  The Astros rested Carlos Correa 14 games this season to, in theory, “keep him fresh for October.”  The Astros went 5-9 in his absence (.357 win % vs .604 with him).  Considering the trouble Houston is having clinching either a division or the #2 seed now, is there any study showing it makes more sense to “over” rest players like Correa?  Is health really improved that much by resting prime players in their late 20s every couple weeks as to sacrifice 2-3 games in the standings?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked specifically at this

Dan Szymborski: Though I’ve done related things and not a relationship between fewer off days and worse late season playing time

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t specifically looked at young players and october

szymborski’s big smelly butt: Hey can you guys see who we really are when we change our chat names?

Dan Szymborski: We can see IP addresses!

Trevor Story: Do I take a Semien make-good short deal, or do I get a big offer like 7/$200milliion?

Dan Szymborski: I think Story’s season was weak enough that he doesn’t come near that

Dan Szymborski: Even accounting that I think teams will be gun-shy until the CBA is agreed to

Dan Szymborski: I can probably share this, but we’ve had our own internal talks about how to space this winter’s content in light of the fact that we believe the offseason will be rather backloaded

Tiger Fan: Humor me – Tigers sign Chris Taylor to be a starting SS. Then they spend big on a SP like Guasman and a second SP like Heany. What else do they do to be a flawed, but legitimate, WC contender like Seattle or Toronto?

Dan Szymborski: They still need one or two serious bats

Erik: Would abolishing the trade deadline be a net positive in terms of pure fun for fans? Imagine if we saw a load of top talent move this week after teams got eliminated and then we could watch most of the best players in the league get at least a few more games.

Dan Szymborski: I think it would have negative results.

Dan Szymborski: You dont’ want postseasons decided by who is willing to give up something crazy the last weekend of the season

Dan Szymborski: By having a trade deadline, you’re essentially making everyone go to war with what they have and make the results for the last two months about the relative strengths of teams.

Larry: Hey Dan what’s your favorite animal in the cervid family?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have a favorite deer

Dan Szymborski: I don’t known much about deer other than watch out for them driving on the highway in the fall at night and eating them.

Dan Szymborski: One of my favorite memories of Galileo the cat is me and him stopping off at Arby’s to get each of us a venison sandwich with cabernet-juniper sauce.

Dan Szymborski: I ate 1.5, he ate 0.5.

Guest: Tell me what I have to look forward to as a Phillies fan

Dan Szymborski: You likely leave in a cheesesteak-inclusive or cheesesteak-adjacent zip code.

James: Fun fact(?) 1/3 of Scherzer’s ER this season have come from 2 games against the Padres.

TBD: Keston Hiura seems to be having “hitters block” this year.  Have you ever experience a similar “writers block”? and if so, how did you over come it (if you have)?

Dan Szymborski: Like most writers there are times that I have writers block!

Dan Szymborski: One thing I do is put more work into other stuff.

Dan Szymborski: Unlike most writers, I have a lot of data projects to play around with if the words aren’t coming.

Dan Szymborski: One exercise I like to do occasionally when I’m really stuck

Dan Szymborski: Is generate three random words and either construct an argument around it, tell a story, or draw a picture.

Dan Szymborski: For example, from 2013

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: The idea is to giving your brain a challenge that’s out of your normal wheelhouse

Treat Urner: Which AL Wild Card match-up are you most rooting for from a fun perspective? Gotta be Jays-M’s, right?

Dan Szymborski: That would be my fave

Dan Szymborski: As an Orioles fan, seeing the Red Sox and Yankees sad is good aesthetics.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Over/under date on when MLB and MLBPA agree to a new CBA (or one-year extension of the current CBA)?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to say 1/5

Joe: Do the Cubs try and trade Contreras and Hendricks to continue to go all in on a rebuild?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs actually spend a bit this offseason and try to do the Rangers skinny rebuild

Dan Szymborski: It didn’t work for the Rangers, but they also had some bad luck

Dan Szymborski: I wrote about this like a month ago – the Cubs aren’t really in THAT BAD a position.

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-will-the-cubs-roar-again/

brad penny for your thoughts: now i imagine you, after hitting a deer with your car, hunched over eating it’s corpse like a zombie

TBD: If Hiura drew a picture about his “hitters block” what would it look like?

Dan Szymborski: I guess a crude MS Paint drying of a military figure telling the president of a militarily weak country that they’ve now refined their missile launch systems and are now accurate to the nearest hemisphere.

Guest: Have you used GPT-3 to write any baseball headlines lately? It offered me some I’d like to read more about:
* The Royals have a new team president: Kevin Feige
* Roy Oswalt is 109 years old but still young at heart
* Orlando Arcia, hot shortstop and amazing wife, is the most awesome person on Twitter
* MLB needs to know your kneecap
* Owners increasingly respect and trust owners
* 30 Things You Might Not Know About Red Sox That Are No Fun at All
* Dansby Swanson endangers one of baseball’s dearest moneys
* Goddamn Padres

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’ve done any baseball headlines lately!

Dan Szymborski: It might be time for another run

Dan Szymborski: My favorite with those is then having the neural network WRITE the article

Dan Szymborski: For example, last time I did it, I got the headline Charlie Blackmon and Ben Affleck Have a Feud

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Also, Cubs Fans Will Never Stop Bringing Candy to the Park

Dan Szymborski:

Christian Colón for Men: Best restaurant in the mall food court?

Dan Szymborski: Boardwalk Fries!

Joe: Is the new CBA going to bring drastic changes to roster building? Feels like free agency is not what it used to be and all that matters now are draft picks and international free agents. Or maybe at some point free agents become under valued?

Dan Szymborski: I expect there will be some tinkering around the sides, but nothing major

Ryan: Do you think the Royals can be competitive in the coming years?

Dan Szymborski: They can be, but I don’t see a great deal of upside

Joe: I know the season isn’t over but the Padres have preformed at what percent of their range of outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: Last I checked a few days ago, 9th percentile

Dan Szymborski: in ZiPS

Josh Egg Foo Jung: How did Luis Urias develop so much power this year?

Dan Szymborski: Size is overrated – he’s been hitting with a lot more loft this year

Dan Szymborski: The 22 homers is a surprise, but him having a solid year wasn’t crazy

Dan Szymborski: Urías already made my list in 2020 and put up one of the worst results of any of last year’s breakout picks, hitting .238/.308/.294 in 41 games for the Brewers. Since I’m clearly not afraid of being aggressively wrong about a young player over and over again — I had Nomar Mazara on my list for three consecutive seasons — I don’t mind sticking up for him one more time.
As lackluster as Urías’ performance in the majors has been, we’re also talking about a middle infielder with a .397 on-base percentage in the minors, a number earned while regularly playing at a high level for his age. Given the short 2020 season — preparation for which was interrupted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis — and his recovery from a broken wrist from winter ball, I’m willing to give him a mulligan for the season. The Brewers are also prioritizing getting him playing time at short, the position where has the most upside value.
This spring, the Brewers are going back to their original plan for Urias and put him at shortstop while Arcia,

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Luis Urías
PercentileBAOBPSLGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBOPS+WAR90%.257.349.44347468122297156858106111083.380%.253.344.4194756612026713645711381012.870%.249.338.403477651192561262551217952.560%.249.336.395478651192561161541257932.450%.246.333.386479641182451160531286902.140%.243.327.374481631172351059511326851.930%.241.324.369482621162251058501366831.720%.238.318.35348462115214956481425781.310%.234.309.33648861114203854441524710.9

Dan Szymborski: Wow, that doesn’t copy and paste well

Christian: Probably requires more research than can be answered in a chat but is there any evidence that basement dwellers like the Orioles step it up in high leverage September games where they can be spoilers? Anecdotally they seem to relish the opportunity to play in some actually meaningful baseball games in a lost season.

Dan Szymborski: Would be interesting, but I haven’t looked at it.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little too late for me to do this year simply because I have a lot of stuff already planned on my plate

Dan Szymborski: Spider Tack! OK, not really, but mentioning Cole and spider tack is a great way to get everyone on all sides SUPER MAD.

barney gumble: hey dan. what do think is up with Cole? he insists it’s not the hammy. is he just gassed?

Dan Szymborski: I should probably post the question before the answer

Key Flaw: As an Orioles fan with a long memory, I can’t root for the Blue Jays to be in the playoffs, but as an Orioles fan with a long memory I desparately want to Red Sox and Yankees to be knocked out of the playoffs. I am conflicted and need a word to describe it.

Dan Szymborski: Basically, the scenario you’re rooting for — which is satisfying — is this:

Dan Szymborski: The Mariners make the wild card.

Dan Szymborski: They then declare that they will not entertain a wild card game as they opponents are beneath them and just show up in Tampa, after imprisoning the other wild card opponent.

Dan Szymborski: And since Rob Manfred’s relatively feckless, MLB doesn’t do anything about it

purplemini: speaking of nomar mazara, what do you think happens with him next year? Invite to camp? Plays abroad? What would he have to do to reach some of his potential?

Dan Szymborski: He seems like someone who would do well in the KBO

Treat Urner: Any thoughts on Jonathan Judge’s proposed revenue/payment structure in BP this month? (i.e. players negotiate with owners only on the total pool of money reserved for salaries, and players then distribute the money among themselves)

Dan Szymborski: It’s interesting, but I’m not sure how workable it really is

Dan Szymborski: Players have quite a conflict of interest determining salaries for themselves

Dan Szymborski: And what would inevitably happen is likely just another veteran-heavy salary system

Dan Szymborski: And can you imagine players agreeing to be paid on their FanGraphs WAR?

Dan Szymborski: That would be beneficial for US of course, but I don’t think they’d want that

Key Flaw: Ryan Mountcastle’s walk rate in the majors is between 7 and 8%, which is much higher than his minor league numbers and almost acceptible! We’ve had over a season’s worth of data so it looks to be ‘real’. Is that a thing that happens often? Would ZiPS predict a different walk rate going forward after his year than previously? Was his last name was originally Schlossberg and changed to make it more American?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t really happen that often, but changes in walk rate are “real” fairly quickly

Dan Szymborski: Ryan Bombcastle

Skewbald: Do you think FanGraph Chat personalities plant questions sometimes?  I’m surprised by the quality!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a burner account because I would screw up like the second time I used it

Dan Szymborski: And we have the luxury of getting to pick and choose questions

Dan Szymborski: You guys ask a LOT of awesome questions

Dan Szymborski: I answer them almost machine-gun style and I still can only get to about a quarter of them

Guest: Hi, Dan! Tried googling around for an answer, sorry if this question has a well-known answer but this has been my first season really making use of projection systems. Can you help me understand the timeline for ZiPS’s future projections? Was looking for 2022 and 2023 projections on Jonathan India but was confused to see only about 100 games and a .220ish average with all counting stats significantly lower than his 2021 outputs.

Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: The three years are not updated daily! Those are preseason only.

Dan Szymborski: Obviously, his future projections have gone up quite a bit.

Guest: Next 10 years: Robert or Soto?

Dan Szymborski: Soto. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Robert, but Soto’s other-worldly as a hitter and is one of the few players I’d take over him

brad penny for your thoughts: do you ever yearn?

Dan Szymborski: Not really, I’m a pretty satisfied person generally.

Salvador Perez: Are all the 30-year-old catchers going to start getting Tommy John Surgery now?

Dan Szymborski: Given how well it worked for Salvy, they should call it Salvador Perez surgery for hitters.

I Just Failed My Math Test: Who ends with the better career; Trout or Soto?

Dan Szymborski: Still Trout

Oddball Herrera: Would you take the over or under on 32 for highest single season HR total rest of career for Marcus Semien? Understood that this may depend on where he ends up

Dan Szymborski: I’ll take over. He’s not a billion years old yet even if he’s not young

Bessy: harold are you there. harold ? pick up eggs harold how do you send this oh dear

Guest: Your chats are a highlight of my week. Thank you!

Christian Colón for Men: What does Billy think of Dayton Moore’s promotion to Team President?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any specific image

Dan Szymborski: so here’s an old one.

Dan Szymborski:

Joe: Was Semien just unknown because of Oakland? Is there a reason he had to settle for the contract he got? And what players will be candidates for short deal breakouts next year?

Dan Szymborski: People (and teams) overreacted to his 2020

Guest: Wow has there always been an ability to click on peoples’ names in the chat and DM them?

Dan Szymborski: In my chats there is

Dan Szymborski: Unless you guys start harrassing each other

Dan Szymborski: harassing

kip: Do you have any keyboard recommendations?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a big fan of the Glorious keyboard.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t be a FULL keyboard nerd because I like full-size keyboards

Dan Szymborski: the real keyboard nerdy upper-crusts like the 60% ones

Dan Szymborski: I gotta have my arrows and I gotta have a full number pad.

Dan Szymborski: I currently use mine with four different switches: Mostly Kailh Box Royals with Kailh Box Jade numberpad, Cherry Linear Gray spacebar, Cherry Speed Silver shift/enter

Dan Szymborski: I picked up an EVGA Z15 last week at a ridiculous price

Dan Szymborski: https://www.newegg.com/evga-z15-rgb-kailh-speed-silver/p/N82E168239530…

Dan Szymborski: $50 for a fullsize hot swappable is terrific.

Dan Szymborski: I’m putting Kailh Box Navys on those to make a heavy, loud, clicky keyboard for when I’m doing a lot of writing.

brad penny for your thoughts: all your chatters now

Harold: bessy i got the eggs.  Calm down hunny bun

Christian Colón for Men: With pitchers now consistently hitting 100 MPH, could we see more Nolan Ryan types who can pitch well into their 40s and maintain decent velocity?

Dan Szymborski: We still haven’t seen a lot of these guys do it for 20 years!

Salvador Perez: I would like it better if we now renamed TJ Surgery “Dick Lovelady Surgery” in the latest recipient’s honor.

Milwaukee Beerjays: Final fantasy tactics is better than…..?

Dan Szymborski: Most things.

Dan Szymborski: My only complaint there is that Thunder God Cid is totally imbalanced.

Milwaukee Beerjays: Also: Crono Trigger is……VASTLY OVERRATED

Dan Szymborski: While I want to ban you for this, if I think about it, as much as I love the game, I haven’t gone back to it anywhere near as often as other games of that time period

Christian Colón for Men: Is this the lightning round?

Dan Szymborski: You know what? I haven’t done an official Lightning Round for awhile.

Dan Szymborski: So let’s do that. The Lightning Round is simple: I have to answer everything as long as it’s not baseball related and not personal.

Dan Szymborski: And GO

Philly Phantasmic: Best peppers for chili?

Dan Szymborski: guajillo with some chipotle

Philly Phantasmic: Most handsome actor?

Dan Szymborski: Matt Bomer

Guest: Favorite sport other than baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Football

Christian Colón for Men: If Britain remade Ted Lasso (the reverse The Office), would they do the obvious and make a soccer manager coach American football, or would they go with cricket and baseball?

Dan Szymborski: They should go with a weird madeup sport

Philly Phantasmic: Favorite soda pop?

Dan Szymborski: pop?

Dan Szymborski: My favorite soda is good ol’ Coke

Tony Conigliaro: 2021-2022 NCAA Tournament champion?

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, my knowledge is so out of date. I’ll say Duke to be safe

kip: I used to have Chrono Trigger CIB, but threw all my boxes away.  Thoughts and prayers, please.

Guest: Favorite month of the year?

Dan Szymborski: October

Dan Szymborski: (playoff baseball and my favorite weather)

Tony Conigliaro: Best fried chicken restaurant?

Dan Szymborski: prince’s hot chicken shack

Dan Szymborski: nationally, popeye’s is safe, though I have a soft spot for nando’s peri peri

Philly Phantasmic: Which Oscar winning movie would be most improved if it had to add King Kong as a character?

Dan Szymborski: Gladiator

Laffy Tuffy: Cat update?

Dan Szymborski: All asleep at last check

Dan Szymborski: They were busy today

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Favorite non-baseball mascot?

Dan Szymborski: The Burger King and has joyous dead eyes

Morbo: Pop is what you give someone when they are talking sass; soda is a sugary fattening beverage.

Tony Conigliaro: Hottest pepper you’ve ever consumed?

Dan Szymborski: straight up ghost pepper

Oddball Herrera: Please give me King Kong in The English Patient.

Ron: What should I have for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: sandwich

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Fried chicken: leg, thigh, wing, or breast?

Dan Szymborski: Breast

Dan Szymborski: Experts prefer thighs

Dan Szymborski: but I have texture and color issues with food and breast meat is safe

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Best vacation spot in the US or Canada?

Dan Szymborski: Always the closest beach you grew up going to

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Best group dance song at a wedding reception?

Dan Szymborski: Cage’s 4’33”

Guest: Experts prefer thighs, but gentlemen prefer breasts

Morbo: I don’t know what kind of mascot “Frank Thomas the Tank Engine” is but he’s my new favorite mascot of all time

Tony Conigliaro: Lasers or conventional weaponry?

Dan Szymborski: Lasers

Dan Szymborski: YOU CAN FILL A HOUSE WITH POPCORN ACCORDING TO THIS DOCUMENTARY I SAW

Google: Tallest building west of the Mississip?

Dan Szymborski: That one in LA from a few years ago?

Mickey Rooney’s Potato Fantasy: Best way to prepare potatoes?

Dan Szymborski: shoestring-fried

Mork Borg: What is the next wild animal humans should domesticate?

Dan Szymborski: anti-vaxxers

Morbo: Should I plan on playing Elden Ring or Starfield?

Dan Szymborski: Starfield. You shouldn’t incentive Martin to do things that aren’t finishing his damn series

Guest: If you were transported to ancient Rome, but could bring one ‘how to’ book with you, which one do you pick?

Dan Szymborski: Some kind of medical book?

Morbo: Worst chilli you’ve ever had?

Dan Szymborski: Cincinnati

Morbo: How to invent electricity

Dan Szymborski: Be whichever deity inveted magnets

Dan Szymborski: HOW DO THEY WORK?

Mork Borg: In a post-apocalyptic world, how long does my knowledge of candle making keep me alive?

Dan Szymborski: Not long, they don’t stop zombies

Morbo: So you admit that skyline chili is chili then?

Dan Szymborski: Well, of things claiming to be chili

Oddball Herrera: I’d go for a book on neat electrical experiments so I can convince the locals I am a god

Dan Szymborski: Which would give you an entertaining few days until someone kills you

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Best I Think You Should Leave sketch?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t watched much

Dan Szymborski: AND I GOT ‘EM

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!

Dan Szymborski: I’ll see you all next time! Though chat will be less regular as we’ll have FanGraphs playoff chats during playoffs at various times

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Why do people assume the apocalypse will be zombies when we should be planning for werewolves?

Dan Szymborski: Big zombie corporations.

Morbo: If Skyrim taught me anything it’s that there’s no downside to being a werewolf