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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 11/8/18

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November 8, 2018
2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy howdy, let’s do the thing…
2:01
RIP McCovey: What is your take on the Farhan Zaidi hire for the Giants and the sentiment that he could move Bumgarner?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I dig the hire, Zaidi seems capable of helming a club. I’m skeptical that about Bum being good when the Giants are good again, so I think it makes sense to explore the idea of moving him.
2:04
Junction Jack: What’s the buzz around JB Bukauskas in Arizona? The stuff has looked very sharp from what I have seen.
2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: He looks good. 94-96, t98, four pitch mix, everything has flashed plus. Changeup hasn’t been as good nor used as heavily of late. Don’t think the fastball plays like 95+ because this is a small guy who also has a short stride and I tend to think of him as a nasty multi-inning relief piece more than a true 170+ inning starter, but he is good.
2:05
Jim Leyland Palmer: Have you gotten to see much of Daz Cameron in the fall league? What do you think the Tigers have in him?

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 11/1/18

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November 1, 2018
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let’s begin our final pre-prospect list chat.
2:02
mark: Do you know if Anderson Espinoza has started throwing, and if so how he looks?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: He did not throw during Padres instructs. He may be throwing off a mound but, if he is, it’s private, so I don’t know how he looks.
2:03
Josh Nelson: Hey Eric. How do Luis Basabe and Luis Robert look so far?
2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: LouBob has been fine, Basabe has not been great.
2:04
mark: Do you guys have any planned draft coverage coming up?

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/25/18

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October 25, 2018
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where we’re approaching the Fall League halfway point. Let’s chat for a bit.
2:03
NotGraphs Revivalist: What kind of prospect package would ATL or SD need to put together for Syndergaard?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be surprised if the the Mets move a big fish this winter. The new regime is going to be operating with incomplete information, there’s real risk of making a bad deal.
2:04
Tommy N.: Padres ownership seems to want to make a splash this offseason. It would be unwise to start trading top prospects with where the Padres are at in the rebuild process, right?
2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: They have to start consolidating talent at some point and I do think we’ll see some action this offseason, even if it’s just on the fringe of the 40-man.
2:04
Ace: When evaluating pitching prospects, what mechanical aspects of a pitcher’s delivery point to SP vs RP? Is it a certain arm slot, arm path, stride length, violent delivery, etc. Thanks

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/18/18

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October 18, 2018
2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, everyone. Time to chat.
2:01
RS: Giants catcher in the AFL, Matt Winn, profile good enough to be a major league backup?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Several caveats when evaluating AFL catchers: they’re probably tired, they’re catching a whole new staff of guys, they’re catching once or twice a week. So the error bar around evals of catchers here is greater. Having said that, I’d answer your question with a ‘no’
2:03
Jay: Should the A’s let Lowrie walk and give Barreto a shot at 2B, or trade Barreto for pitching?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d hold onto Barreto
2:03
Pip: Who’s the better prospect moving forward, the National’s, or the Phillies’ Luis Garcia?

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/11/2018

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October 11, 2018
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, hi there. Welcome to today’s chat. I’ll get right to it.
2:02
Tumbler, Whiskey: Hi Eric, thanks for the time today. Are Kristian Robinson and Geraldo Perdomo the two best prospects in the Diamondbacks’ system?
2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I woudn’t have Perdomo all the way up there, he’s still behind guys like  Jazz, Varsho, Dup, Thomas…but he is a good prospect. Kristian, you already know.
2:04
JJ: Just seen Santiago Espinal has been sent to the AFL – thoughts on him as a prospect?
2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Fall League disclaimer: It’s early and I might change my mind on these guys over the next six weeks. Think Espinal is probably an org guy.
2:05
Daniel: Were there any exciting names in Cubs extended or AZL? Reivaj looks interesting (and not just b/c the of the name)

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 9/26

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September 26, 2018
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the heat just won’t quit.
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I have two links for you
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: The first is our updated draft rankings which shifted based on the summer festivities on the Cape, showcases, etc.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fall-equinox-draft-board-update/
12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: The next is https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects which is where you can find all our prospect resources in one place.
12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: I think I might be having some technical issues with the chat software right now, so please be patient if there’s a gap between responses today as I might be playing with stuff to try to get things running smoothly.
12:07
GPT: Are you still going to be visiting Giants camp during fall instrux even though they won’t be playing games?

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 9/13/18

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September 13, 2018
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey from Tempe, everyone.
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Not much to link to because I was off last week and have been doing work on the guts of the Board this week in preparation for the offseason, so let’s hop right in to this…
2:03
Padulla: Out of all the recent international signees by the Yankees, which one are you most excited to see?
2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Kevin Alcantara, who is simply the kind of player I like to watch. Yankees instrux games start the 25th. Haven’t seen their roster yet but lots of July 2 signees are here in the fall for instrux so he can be seen, domestically.
2:06
Ben: The Yankees system didn’t quite hit the highs of previous years – should Yankees fans be disappointed? Or is the ‘fall’ of the system in rankings more due to Major League graduations, which are obviously good?
2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s clear their recent record of player dev means the system is always ‘good’ if there’s malleable talent in the lower levels, and there is.

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Daily Prospect Notes Finale: Arizona Fall League Roster Edition

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August 30, 2018

Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Note from Eric: Hey you, this is the last one of these for the year, as the minor-league regular season comes to a close. Thanks for reading. I’ll be taking some time off next week, charging the batteries for the offseason duties that lie ahead for Kiley and me.

D.J. Peters, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 7   FV: 45+
Line: 4-for-7, 2 HR, 2B (double header)

Notes
A comparison of DJ Peters‘ 2017 season in the Cal League and his 2018 season at Double-A gives us a good idea of what happens to on-paper production when a hitter is facing better pitching and defenses in a more stable offensive environment.

D.J. Peters’ Production
Year AVG OBP SLG K% BB% BABIP wRC+
2017 .276 .372 .514 32.2% 10.9% .385 137
2018 .228 .314 .451 34.0% 8.1% .305 107

Reports of Peters’ physical abilities haven’t changed, nor is his batted-ball profile different in such a way that one would expect a downtick in production. The 2018 line is, I think, a more accurate distillation of Peters’ abilities. He belongs in a talent bucket with swing-and-miss outfielders like Franchy Cordero, Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor, Bradley Zimmer, etc. These are slugging center fielders whose contact skills aren’t particularly great. Players like this are historically volatile from one season to the next but dominant if/when things click. They’re often ~1.5 WAR players who have some years in the three-win range. Sometimes they also turn into George Springer.

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 8/30/2018

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August 30, 2018
2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, let’s chat. Last Daily Prospect Notes of the year will be out later today and I’ll have Fall League roster stuff at some point, too. They’re exciting this year, as always.
2:00
Rosie: who’s the biggest sleeper in the AZL that could become a big spec one day?
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on what kind of perspective you have. Reivaj Garcia isn’t a sleeper down here but he might be to you. I’ll say Wilbis Santiago. Old for AZL but really loose, quick hands.
2:03
Joe: Best prospect from this group? Neidert, Palumbo, Duran, Thorpe, Widener, Santillan, and poche
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: One of those guys is a 50 FV on The Board, the rest are not (yet)
2:03
regular: DeShawn Knowles has comparable slash to Wander (albeit weaker ratios). What kind of upside are we looking at? Shane Victorino a decent comp?

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Daily Prospect Notes: 8/29/2018

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August 29, 2018

Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Cal Stevenson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Level: Advanced Rookie   Age: 21   Org Rank: NR   FV: 35
Line: 3-for-4, 2B, 4 SB

Notes
College seniors are expected to dominate short-season leagues after signing but what Cal Stevenson has done merits some discussion, in part because he played through a hand injury this spring that may have clouded his actual skill. Stevenson has a .513 OBP at Bluefield because he has walked nearly three times more often than he’s struck out. He’s also stolen 21 bags in 22 attempts since signing. These numbers corroborate scouting reports which compliment Stevenson’s plus speed and bat-to-ball skills before noting his likely corner-outfield defensive projection and lack of characteristic power for the position. But let’s keep an eye on this guy because Toronto has a track record of making swing adjustments to bat-first college players that have helped those players become more viable prospects.

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