Eric Longenhagen Chat: 8/30/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, hope you’re having a good day so far. And if you’re not, hang in there. Let’s get to some questions

Brandon J: Mitch White, Josiah Gray, Leo Crawford, Gerardo Carillo. Who are you taking long term, and which one is least likely to pan out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gray is in our overall 100. White is near-term potential starter who has had injury/consistency issues. Carrillo has more variance but def a relief risk. Crawford sits 86-90.

John: Hey Eric, you guys had a brief glowing paragraph on Jeferson Espinal. Am I right to be really excited about him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing efficacy is behind but he’s so young. 70 runner with some physicality and hand-eye coordination. Yeah, he’s fairly exciting.

Cubs Boi: Which MI should Cubs fans be more excited about — Luis Verdugo or Pedro Miguel Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pedro. I know Verdugo has had a good statistical year but I’m not on his bat and think it’s a glove-first SS profile and you hope he hits for some power. Pedro I think can really hit, I’m just less sure where he ends up on defense. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Adam: Thoughts on Ricky Vanasco? Close to be added to the Rangers list?

Eric A Longenhagen: 92-96 t98 with above-average life. Could be heater-centric reliever. Yes, he’s on the 35+/40FV line.

Sean: Is CJ abrams a better fantasy prospect than Andrew Vaughn?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes

Russell: In the majors we are seeing pitchers using their fastball less and less have you made any changes to your grading for pitchers to decrease the impact of a prospects fastball grade on their overall grade?

Eric A Longenhagen: kinda, i just look at how everything works together to get outs and if there are things that help someone overcome a vanilla fastball, great

Sean: is Jordyn Adams a similar prospect to a guy like brinson who struggled with the hit tool and contact rates? Adams K rates have been OK this year but curious if you think he’s at risk there as he gets closer to the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, what Adams is doing for someone who has barely played baseball is actually pretty incredible.

Vander: Is there any reason for Reds fans not to be absolutely thrilled about what Jose Israel Garcia has accomplished this year? Why doesn’t he rate higher right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can be excited, sure. He was on our list of ‘hey, should this guy be on here?s’ when we last updated the 100, but since he’s coming to Fall League we decided it was just an easy in-person look for me to get before we decide exactly if/where we move him.

Jeremy: Mason Martin has a .290 ISO in the FSL which is nuts, but has turned into a dead pull hitter with poor BB% and K%. Yet he just turned 20. How do you see his profile developing?

Eric A Longenhagen: He hits the ball really hard, but yeah the peripherals and defensive profile are super scary to me. He’s got a shot because of the power, but it’s long.

Eric: Hi – Is Bryce Ball a legit prospect? Continues to mash at Low-A.

Eric A Longenhagen: Another guy with real juice. We’ll need to see him do it at Hi and Double-A before we’re really in, again, because of the defensive profile.

Eric A Longenhagen: RIght, like what is Jared James doing?

Benjamin: Does royce lewis make you nervous

Eric A Longenhagen: not especially, not really bugged by his year

Anthony: Best way to keep up with AFL if I can’t be there in person?

Eric A Longenhagen: just via the fall league milb page, i guess

Eric A Longenhagen: i’m not writing gamers or anything

Frank: Thinking about going to the AZL championship, who are the prospects in the game most worth watching?

Eric A Longenhagen: TEX: Heriberto Hernandez (who rakes but can’t catch), Keithron Moss (same, but probably not an INF), Randy Florentino (athletic, well-rounded catcher), Keyber Rodrguez and Osleivis Basabe (twitchy MIF types, the latter is riskier but toolsier), Davis Wenzdel (physical beast playing at this level due to previous injury)

Eric A Longenhagen: CLE: Jose Tena (lefty bat shortstop with some natural low-ball ability), Victor Nova (dude they got from SD in Bauer swap), Cris Cespedes and Jonkensy Noel (exit velo goons)

James: Who among the Astros’ Urquidy, Valdez, Bielak and Javier has the best shot at being a productive big leaguer? Given the state of the Astros bullpen their time may be now.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just big league roles? Javier, because of how the stuff plays. But Bielak is the best prospect in that group. Better breaking stuff than Urquidy, better command than the other two.

SoxFan90: I’ve been a big fan of Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck since he was drafted. Is his move to the pen permanent or do you see him working out as a starter long-term? Does his upcoming AFL stint have any bearing on his role?

Eric A Longenhagen: relief, but could be very good there

Johnathan: I was excited when Jeremy De La Rosa got sent straight to GCL. He’s turned it on in the last two weeks after a boring season in general. Got any updates on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: we still just have him valued as a projectable frame RF type who’s like 4 or 5 years away in all likelihood, a 35+ type

U.N.C.L.E.: Any updated thoughts on Andy Pages? Has been dominating the Pioneer League as an 18 year old.

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a LF/RF but yup, has big power

Cardinals fan : You guys aren’t as high on Dylan Carlson as some others are. What do you see from him and why is he not a 55 FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: ’19 power production > his realistic power production/raw power. I also think he’s a LF.

Rick: What’s some touristy things to do during fall league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Taliesen West and The Musical Instrument Museum are both worth your time.

Guest: Any chance Jake Mangum grows into any type of power?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah, that’s a college senior

Cito’s Mustache: With a healthy 2020, how big a jump can Jordan Groshans make in the top 100 next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: He could have Kieboom’s 2018 and move like that

Jon G: Just please tell me your favorite nice things about the Cubs’ farm system.

Eric A Longenhagen: they typically do a great job in Mexico

Kurtz: What’s reasonable to expect for Julio Rodriguez in the AFL? There’ve been younger players before but even Vladito was 19 and had spent most of the year in AA, not Low-A. Is Bryce Harper the closest recent example of lack of even High-A reps to get AFL work?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s reasonable to expect him to play hard but that’s about it. If he sucks all fall, we won’t move him. He’s had a long year and will be one of the younger guys there, I don’t need him to go nuts there to keep liking him

Cito’s Mustache: What sort of mechanical adjustments does a player of Aaron Judge’s size make to turn a long-levered, below-average hit tool into above avg. at the MLB level? I’m thinking of Oneil Cruz too and if he can ever cut the swing & miss down.

Eric A Longenhagen: judge’s swing is more fluid and well-timed now than it was when he was a college/struggling at times as a prospect

Jeffrey: How frequently do you guys update the “Risk” attribute on the BOARD?

Eric A Longenhagen: sweeping adjustment in offseason, we may identify changes to individuals during the year but it’s not an area we prioritize curation during the year

Eric A Longenhagen: and we might actually do away with that column eventually

Nate: Julio Rodriguez or Marco Luciano? I realize one plays an OF corner and one plays SS but Julios bat seems much more safe than Luciano.

Eric A Longenhagen: alright, i’ve been nice about it so far. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

troke: What do the Mets do with Rosario showing some 2nd half improvements, Gimenez knocking on the door, Mauricio coming behind him, and a glut of utility infielders at the major level.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t worry about Mauricio yet. Gimenez could just as easily play 2B.

Spiezio’s Pizzaria: AZL Angels were a bit lack luster as a general group but outside of Trent Deveaux, were there any guys of some note?

Eric A Longenhagen: William Holmes. I’ve seen him up to 95, flash plus change, average breaking ball. Pretty good for a two-way guy from a cold-weather high school

Scott (Tin) Staapp: What does Bailey Ober need to do to get your attention?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a deceptive overhand delivery, but I checked on this dude early in the year and he was sitting 84-87.

nb: Eric – Can’t wait to see you at FPAZ and the Fall Stars game. While I’m glad I don’t have to wait till the end of October, I really hate the timing of it this year since the MLB playoffs will be in full swing. What are your thoughts on this? Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah I have a lot of thoughts about the Fall League changes, some good some bad, some very self-centered. My overarching thought is that it’s good the AFL (which is under new leadership for the first time since it was founded) has been proactive about trying new stuff, unafraid of change. I don’t like all of them (I’d rather watch baseball in November due to the weather, the Mexican League team participation means less efficient looks during that stretch of the calendar, there’s more overlap with instructs on the calendar, etc) but I’m glad they’re experimenting.

Danny: Have any 2019 draftees changed your opinion of them predraft or raised your eyebrows one way or another?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wenzdel is moving the needle. Moving really well now that he’s through the injury

Shiva: What are you looking for from Seth Corry before elevating his FV? Is it a matter of consistency?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he and Toribio are 40+ candidates this offseason. Right now Corry’s still got relief stink on him because of the walks, but it’s 3 pitches.

Weenie: Are the Mariners trying to develop Elvis Alvarado as a SP? If so, do you think there’s any chance he can be a starter or does he seem like a bullpen type arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: bullpen arm, but they should still develop him as a starter

James: Is Brandon Marsh a guy that could eventually be a 55 FV? He is top 5 in BA, OBP and OPS in AA at 21. When can we expect to see him in Anaheim?

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a guy whose swing keeps shifting as they try to get him to lift more. if he starts doing that, yeah he’ll move up. Glad we stayed on him.

Matt: Have you seen Kristian Robinson lately? Is he still just massive projection or has he made any obvious improvements this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: swing still isn’t fully actualized and has downward elements that need to shift, but he’s physically pretty developed

Brandon: Any big movers on the 2020 draft board after all of the summer events?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, we’ll have a post up in Sept making a sweeping draft update

Eric A Longenhagen: we have a ton of biographical data to input for all the guys, so it’ll take a while to get done

James: What kind of power potential are we talking for Marsh if he is able to lift more? His frame seems to suggest there could be big raw power.

Eric A Longenhagen: he already has 55 raw or so, i don’t think there’s more than a half grade left in the body. It’s all about the swing. He’s like a 5 degree launch guy right now, which is basically where Yandy Diaz was this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s where the room is

Eric A Longenhagen: and if he never does it, he’ll still be fine

ke’bryan mays hayes: Recent hot stretch aside it’s been a down year at the plate for Ke’Bryan Hayes, as least as far as the stat line goes. How negatively does that affect his prognosis?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not inclined to move him at all

Guest: Biggest riser in 2019?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jarren Duran went from not on our very inclusive radar to the Futures Game

Guest: Biggest faller in 2019?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gohara, I suppose.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Seth Brown – talk about him

Eric A Longenhagen: low OBP masher with 55/60 raw, average lift. fringe 40-man type for me

Brendon: Thomas Hatch has crazy numbers since the Cubs traded him to Toronto. 34 innings, 35 Ks, 2 BBs. Any reports on what to attribute this to?

Eric A Longenhagen: Toronto identified that Hatch had made a change (I think he added a cutter) shortly before the trade. So, I’m guessing that’s the difference. It was in place before they got him, not something they tweaked afterward.

Cautious Dads fan: Is there any hope of Josh Naylor developing, at the very least, to “not a liability” in the OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, hope for a universal DH

Jack: Have you been impressed by Jose Soriano this season? His fastball and curve seem to very impressive, but do you see him ever cutting down on the BB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Same guy, for me. Body, fastball and breaking ball are all there, delivery is okay, striek throwing is not. If that comes he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not he’s probably still a good reliever.

BK: Any Jays prospects you could see leaping into 50 FV territory this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: we’ll take a good hard look at SWR, I’ll probably advocate we consider Gabriel Moreno. Maybe one of the South American teenagers makes a big move, but doubtful.

Dan: I’ve been analyzing the deadline trades using Craig Edwards prospect asset value research but I’ve run into some trouble. How do I go about estimating the value of an MLB player when he still has a few arbitration years ahead of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: you’d have to use recent arb cases from similar players to get your $

Jahmai: Is it time to give up on Jahmai Jones?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah, makeup is too good

Jeremy: Which team are you most excited to watch in the AFL? Which player are you most excited to evaluate in the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Glendale, Oneil Cruz

Blondie: Do you and/or Kiley get to talk to many of these prospects? Curious if learning about them face-to-face might affect any thoughts on future value, like if a guy is really deep into the analytics and interested in making change vs. a guy who ignores the data. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: We do not

Jacob: Is Luciano lower than Mauricio on the board because of risk? Or because of level played? Luciano’s FV grades are = or a full grade higher on hitting and a half grade lower on fielding/arm. Or is it just not that big of a difference because they are both 55s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mauricio has a better shot of staying at short and his frame is more projectable

Jeremy: How much do you know about Jonatan Clase? Didn’t seem very highly regarded at signing but he went bonkers in the DSL this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: muscular 5-8 guy who runs well and has natural lift.

Eric A Longenhagen: he’s an interesting on-the-radar type

JacobM: How do you decide the order that you publish the offseason prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: a combination of things that change year to year. Teams who don’t have fall league prospects with 40+ or better FV implications move to the front of the line

Dees: Do you think it was a bit nuts of the Braves to move Shewmake to AA? Seemed awfully aggressive.

Eric A Longenhagen: i dont think it’ll impact his development at all, so no it isn’t nuts. Do I think they were trying to coax a few good weeks of numbers from him there in hopes that it would make their 2019 draft class look better? Yeah.

nate: thank you for talking to me every week. nobody in europe likes baseball, so it kind of sucks

Eric A Longenhagen: sure thing, dude

Eric A Longenhagen: okay folks, i’m gonna go. thanks for stopping by this week, see you next friday