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Top 20 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Baltimore Orioles. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Orioles Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Austin Hays 22 MLB RF 2018 50
2 Chance Sisco 22 MLB C 2018 50
3 Hunter Harvey 22 A RHP 2018 45
4 D.L. Hall 19 R LHP 2020 45
5 Tanner Scott 22 MLB LHP 2018 45
6 Cedric Mullins 23 AA CF 2019 45
7 Ryan Mountcastle 21 AA LF 2019 45
8 Cody Sedlock 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
9 Matthias Dietz 22 A RHP 2020 40
10 Zac Lowther 21 A- LHP 2019 40
11 Brenan Hanifee 19 A- RHP 2021 40
12 Anthony Santander 23 MLB 1B/OF 2018 40
13 Chris Lee 25 AAA LHP 2018 40
14 Luis Gonzalez 26 AA LHP 2018 40
15 Lamar Sparks 19 R CF 2022 40
16 D.J. Stewart 24 AA LF 2019 40
17 Gray Fenter 22 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Mike Baumann 22 A RHP 2021 40
19 Keegan Akin 22 A+ LHP 2020 40
20 Jomar Reyes 21 A+ 3B 2020 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Jacksonville
Age 22 Height 6’0 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/60 45/50 50/50 50/50 60/60

Hays had a spectacular 2017 breakout campaign, hitting 32 homers and 32 doubles between High- and Double-A, prompting Baltimore to give him a look in the majors in September. His hands are electric and they allow Hays to turn on just about everything — which is what he tries to do and which is what prompted big-league pitchers to work him down and away last year. It may take an adjustment for Hays to max out his offensive potential, as his overly aggressive approach may be exploited in the majors. That said, he has bat speed and power, and should play an above-average right field fairly soon.

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Top 19 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

We’d also like to extend our condolences to the friends and family of the late Daniel Flores, as well as the Red Sox international scouting department. We were excited to watch Daniel play baseball and can’t imagine what those who anticipated watching him grow up have dealt with since his untimely passing.

Red Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Michael Chavis 22 AA 1B 2018 50
2 Jay Groome 19 A LHP 2021 50
3 Tanner Houck 21 A- RHP 2019 45
4 Sam Travis 24 MLB 1B 2018 45
5 Bryan Mata 18 A RHP 2021 45
6 Jalen Beeks 24 AAA LHP 2018 45
7 Darwinzon Hernandez 21 A LHP 2021 45
8 Danny Diaz 17 R 3B 2022 40
9 Mike Shawaryn 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
10 Cole Brannen 19 A- OF 2022 40
11 Bobby Dalbec 22 A 3B 2021 40
12 Josh Ockimey 22 AA 1B 2020 40
13 C.J. Chatham 23 A SS 2020 40
14 Ty Buttrey 25 AAA RHP 2018 40
15 Alex Scherff 20 R RHP 2022 40
16 Tzu-Wei Lin 24 MLB UTIL 2018 40
17 Joan Martinez 21 R RHP 2021 40
18 Roniel Raudes 20 A+ RHP 2020 40
19 Bobby Poyner 25 MLB LHP 2018 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Sprayberry HS (GA)
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 210 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 50/60 40/40 40/45 55/55

If you were to look just at Chavis’s 2016 stats and with the knowledge that he was only a viable defensive fit at first base, you’d call him a non-prospect. This dip in production was brought about by a broken finger, and in 2017, Chavis was back to taking monster hacks that produce comfortably plus raw power. He’s going to strike out, and he isn’t especially patient, but he has a good chance to get to most of that power and do enough damage to profile at first base. Chavis has the arm for third base but lacks the horizontal mobility to profile there in a vacuum. Boston has shown a willingness to put up with less lateral range on their infield, but a left side of the infield which features Chavis and Xander Bogaerts together is probably too heavy-footed for comfort, even with proactive defensive positioning. Chavis projects to first base and has dealt with an oblique injury this spring.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/3

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, everyone. Sorry I’m a few ticks late.

12:05
joe: What’s Vogelbach’s ultimate ceiling if his swing changes actually help?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, looking to see exactly what he’s changed

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: My main issue has been: He doesn’t hunt pitches he can drive. If he starts doing that, sure, that’ll be better

12:07
Tacoby Bellsbury: Nice FG article on Jordan Hicks today. Does he have a future in the rotation, or is high-end bullpen role his destiny at this point?

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Top 18 Prospects: New York Mets

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Mets Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 David Peterson 22 R LHP 2019 50
2 Andres Gimenez 19 A SS 2020 45
3 Tomas Nido 23 AA C 2018 45
4 Ronny Mauricio 16 R SS 2023 45
5 Justin Dunn 22 A+ RHP 2019 45
6 Mark Vientos 18 R 3B 2022 45
7 Peter Alonso 22 AA 1B 2019 45
8 Desmond Lindsay 21 A OF 2020 45
9 Luis Guillorme 23 AA UTIL 2018 45
10 Thomas Szapucki 21 A LHP 2021 40
11 Chris Flexen 23 MLB RHP 2018 40
12 Marcos Molina 23 R RHP 2018 40
13 Tony Dibrell 22 A- RHP 2020 40
14 Anthony Kay 23 R LHP 2021 40
15 Gerson Bautista 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
16 Adrian Hernandez 17 R OF 2022 40
17 Gavin Cecchini 24 MLB 2B 2018 40
18 Jamie Callahan 23 MLB RHP 2018 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Oregon
Age 22 Height 6’6 Weight 240 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
55/55 50/55 40/45 50/55 45/55

Peterson had a great junior year at Oregon in 2017, showing four good pitches and throwing more strikes than is typical for a pitcher his size. He sits 90-92 with heavy sink, will touch 95, and his fastball plays up because of good extension. He made heavy use of a slider that garners mixed reviews depending on if you’re talking to a scout (who consider it a 50/55) or someone looking at a Trackman readout (40/45), but it missed Pac-12 bats and should be fine even if it doesn’t spin a whole lot.

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Top 26 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Phillies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Sixto Sanchez 19 A+ RHP 2020 60
2 Scott Kingery 23 AAA 2B 2018 55
3 J.P. Crawford 23 MLB SS 2018 55
4 Adonis Medina 21 A RHP 2020 50
5 Franklyn Kilome 22 AA RHP 2019 50
6 Mickey Moniak 19 A OF 2021 45
7 Adam Haseley 21 A CF 2020 45
8 Jorge Alfaro 24 MLB C 2018 45
9 Jhailyn Ortiz 19 A- 1B 2021 45
10 JoJo Romero 21 A+ LHP 2019 45
11 Seranthony Dominguez 23 A+ RHP 2018 45
12 Enyel De Los Santos 22 AA RHP 2019 45
13 Daniel Brito 20 A 2B 2020 40
14 Arquimedes Gamboa 20 A SS 2021 40
15 Luis Garcia 17 R INF 2023 40
16 Roman Quinn 24 MLB CF 2018 40
17 Kevin Gowdy 20 R RHP 2020 40
18 Spencer Howard 21 A- RHP 2020 40
19 Francisco Morales 18 R RHP 2022 40
20 Jose Taveras 24 R RHP 2018 40
21 Thomas Eshelman 23 AAA RHP 2018 40
22 Ranger Suarez 22 A+ LHP 2020 40
23 Dylan Cozens 23 AAA OF 2018 40
24 Cole Irvin 24 AA LHP 2019 40
25 Jake Holmes 19 R SS 2022 40
26 Jose Gomez 21 R UTIL 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic
Age 18 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 45/50 50/55 55/65 45/55

Hitters like to shorten up against Sixto after he’s blown well-placed, sinking, upper-90s gas past them for strikes one and two, which leaves them vulnerable to any of his three viable secondary offerings later in at-bats. Sanchez sits 95-99, has touched 102, and possesses advanced command. He has a long, cutting slider in the mid-80s and a two-plane curveball, both of which flash above-average, but his best secondary is a ghosting, mid-80s changeup which embarrassed hitters five years older than him at Hi-A last year.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 3/27

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone. Sorry I’m a few minutes late, was having HTML issues with the Phillies list. Let’s get right to it…

12:03
Jed: What have you heard from Hunter Greene this spring? Has he started throwing? Was a bit of a mixed back last summer.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Upper-90s, better breaking ball than last year.

12:03
Don: Is Joey Lucchesi a viable option in San Diego this year?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:04
Tommy N.: What distinguishes Kingery from Urias and Hiura and who do you personally prefer between the three?

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Top 18 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Washington Nationals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

A’s Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Victor Robles 20 MLB CF 2018 65
2 Carter Kieboom 20 A 3B 2021 55
3 Juan Soto 19 R OF 2020 50
4 Erick Fedde 25 R RHP 2018 45
5 Seth Romero 21 A- LHP 2019 45
6 Wil Crowe 23 A- RHP 2020 45
7 Blake Perkins 21 A CF 2020 40
8 Yasel Antuna 18 R SS 2021 40
9 Daniel Johnson 22 A+ OF 2020 40
10 Kelvin Gutierrez 23 A+ 3B 2019 40
11 Andrew Stevenson 23 R OF 2018 40
12 Luis Garcia 17 R SS 2022 40
13 Austin Adams 26 MLB RHP 2018 40
14 Brigham Hill 22 A RHP 2020 40
15 Anderson Franco 20 A 3B 2020 40
16 Rafael Bautista 25 R OF 2018 40
17 Jose Marmolejos 24 AA 1B 2018 40
18 Osvaldo Abreu 23 AA UTIL 2019 40

65 FV Prospects

Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/70 40/50 35/45 70/70 60/70 70/70

He’s barely played a month above A-ball, but Robles looked ready for the big leagues in 2017 and got a brief cup of coffee before finishing his season in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a polished, instinctive player capable of making an impact in every facet of baseball. Robles has great feel for all-fields contact and sneaky power for his size, which manifests itself in doubles and triples. He’s also a potential Gold Glove center fielder with breathtaking range and arm strength, and he was easily the best baserunner in the AFL, which features a pretty advanced group of prospects.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/20

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, everyone. Some links before we get rolling….

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote up a deep Marlins system: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-29-prospects-miami-marlins/

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: And dumped some amateur notes: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-oregon-righty-matt-mercer-and…

12:03
Larry: Breakout Braves prospect from outside you and Kiley’s top 32?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Anyelo Gomez is going to be very good.

12:03
Waltharius: Is there any updates on prep guys like Hankins, Gorman, Turang and Kelenic?

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Scouting Oregon Righty Matt Mercer and Top 2019 Prospects

Both Kiley and I will be posting in-person scouting reports on draft prospects we see throughout the spring. Well, summer and fall, too. Here is another dump of notes from Arizona and a recent trip to Southern California.
2018 Draft Board

Other in-person notes: Matthew Liberatore, Nick Madrigal, Luken Baker, Jake Wong, TCU Pitching

Oregon righty Matt Mercer threw six innings of two-run ball on Friday night against Arizona State. He struck out eight Sun Devils, walked four, and left scouts with lukewarm feelings about his stuff. Mercer was up to 96, sitting 91-94 throughout his outing, and ASU hitters squared it up pretty often. His best secondary offering was his above-average changeup, which has bat-missing fade and benefits from Mercer’s funky delivery. Neither of Mercer’s breaking balls nor his command impressed scouts. His below-average mid-80s slider lacked movement and mid-70s curveball was fringey. I thought his curveball flashed average and could mature there if it’s used more frequently.

On one hand, Mercer is a college arm up to 96 with an out-pitch changeup and potential average third offering, if you’re willing to project on one of his breaking balls. On the other, he has below-average command right now, not everyone likes his delivery and/or athleticism, and he’s already had one Tommy John. There are some foreseeable avenues that lead Mercer to league-average starterdom but more that run to the bullpen. In the bullpen, maybe his fastball ticks up and singular focus on his changeup means he’s a 60 fastball, 60 changeup reliever with some funk, a la Tyler Clippard.

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Top 29 Prospects: Miami Marlins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Miami Marlins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Marlins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Lewis Brinson 23 R CF 2018 60
2 Monte Harrison 22 A+ CF 2020 50
3 Jorge Guzman 22 R RHP 2021 50
4 Brian Anderson 24 MLB 3B 2018 50
5 Isan Diaz 21 A+ 2B 2019 50
6 Braxton Garrett 20 A LHP 2021 50
7 Magneuris Sierra 21 MLB OF 2018 50
8 Sandy Alcantara 22 MLB RHP 2018 50
9 James Nelson 20 A 3B 2021 45
10 Nick Neidert 21 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Trevor Rogers 20 R LHP 2021 45
12 Edward Cabrera 19 A- RHP 2021 45
13 Braxton Lee 24 AA OF 2018 45
14 Brian Miller 22 R CF 2020 40
15 Chris Torres 20 A- SS 2021 40
16 Jose Devers 18 R SS 2022 40
17 Dillon Peters 25 R LHP 2018 40
18 Pablo Lopez 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
19 Zac Gallen 22 AAA RHP 2019 40
20 Elieser Hernandez 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
21 Garrett Cooper 27 MLB 1B 2018 40
22 Jordan Yamamoto 21 A+ RHP 2020 40
23 Colton Hock 21 A- RHP 2020 40
24 Joe Dunand 22 A+ 3B 2021 40
25 Thomas Jones 20 A- OF 2022 40
26 Robert Dugger 22 AAA RHP 2020 40
27 Brayan Hernandez 20 AAA CF 2021 40
28 Jordan Holloway 21 A RHP 2020 40
29 Tyler Kolek 22 A RHP 2022 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Coral Springs HS (FL)
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 65/65 50/60 60/55 50/55 60/60

Brinson has loud physical tools: plus raw power, plus speed, plus arm strength, and the ability to play center field despite mediocre instincts. He didn’t hit for as much power as was expected at hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in 2017, but scouting reports on the raw power, and Brinson’s ability to get to it in games, remain strong. Provided he’s able to make continuous adjustments — and he’s exhibited the ability to do that on his ascent through the minors — Brinson has 25-homer potential. He has had several soft-tissue, lower-body injuries during his career, including multiple hamstring issues, one of which ended his 2017 season. He’s still a plus runner underway but doesn’t reach top speed as quickly as he once did.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Lee’s Summit West (MO)
Age 21 Height 6’3 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 30/55 60/60 45/50 80/80

This is what it looks like when things start to click on the baseball field for a premium athlete: a .272/.350/.481 line split between two levels, 51 extra-base hits (including 21 homers), and 27 bases stolen at a 87% success rate. Harrison has always had late-bloomer traits. He was a multi-sport stud — not multi-sport athlete, multi-sport stud — in high school and only committed to baseball full time after turning pro. In parts of three pro seasons entering 2017, Harrison missed time with a hamate fracture and broken leg, which prevented him from getting the reps he needed and diluted the way his tools looked on the field when he was.

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