Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Los Angeles Angels farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. The KATOH (stats-only) statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

70 FV Prospects

Where to begin? First, it’s worth discussing why Ohtani is even included within these rankings in the first place. There’s a pretty good argument that he doesn’t belong here: he’s an MLB-ready product who probably won’t take a minor-league bus ride in his life. Nevertheless, we felt that a few facts about him merit his inclusion.

1. He’s younger than many of the players who appear throughout our lists.
2. He was an amateur international free agent literally weeks ago.
3. He’ll be providing the Angels with a prospect’s surplus value. (He’d be worth at least $250 million on the open market but will be making league minimum in 2017. So, great job, MLBPA.)
4. Because of Ohtani’s geographic location, the injury issues that made him hard to see in 2017, and the inexact nature of NPB/MLB statistical equivalencies, most of what we know about Ohtani comes from him being scouted very heavily during the last two years.

Shohei Ohtani is perhaps the most talented all-around baseball player on the planet. He is a toolsy, but volatile, prospect as a hitter with plus-plus raw power and plus speed; he could also immediately be one of the best pitchers in baseball because of the elite quality of his stuff. Teams have been on Ohtani since he was in high school. The Dodgers, Giants, Rangers, and Red Sox all pursued him during that time, and the threat that Ohtani would go to MLB right out of high school created a buzz in Japan. (This was in 2012 and 2013, during the time of soft international bonus caps. Ohtani said publicly at this time that he wanted to go right to MLB.) NPB teams (specifically the Hokkaido Fighters, who picked first overall in the 2012 draft) were forced to play chicken with Ohtani’s MLB suitors. There was risk he’d be picked up at the top of the NPB draft and just leave, but Hokkaido took him and convinced him to stay.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. The KATOH (stats-only) statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

60 FV Prospects

Senzel had a spectacular season, slashing .321/.391/.514 between High-A and Double-A in his first full pro season. He’s one of the toughest outs in the minors, combining a patient, discerning, offensive approach with a simple swing, superlative hand-eye coordination, and bat control. Senzel doesn’t have monster raw power, nor does he seek to take max-effort swings by utilizing a big stride or leg kick. Instead, his power comes from precise, high-quality contact. He’s going to be a doubles machine with home runs coming opportunistically rather than as a core aspect of his approach, but he’ll still hit for power.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox executed a three-team trade on Thursday night. Los Angeles acquired 28-year-old lefty Scott Alexander from Kansas City and INF Jake Peter from Chicago while sending RHP Trevor Oaks and INF Erick Mejia to Kansas City and Luis Avilan to Chicago. In addition to Avilan, the White Sox received reliever Joakim Soria from Kansas City and cash from both other teams.

Travis Sawchik examined the deal last night from the Dodgers’ perspective. Below are scouting reports on Alexander (who exhausted rookie eligibility in 2018 but still has a developing skill set) and the deal’s prospects. Notes and prose are a combination of my own and Kiley McDaniel’s.

Going to Los Angeles

Scott Alexander, LHP (from Royals)
The late-blooming lefty was an effective MLB reliever last year, posting a 2.48 ERA on the back of a 73% ground-ball rate. He relies on a sinker that he throws a whopping 94% of the time, working at 92-94 and touching 96 with plus-plus life. It’s average velocity jumped nearly three ticks last year, while the usage jumped accordingly from 72%. He barely used his slider, but it’s an above-average pitch now — also with three ticks more velo — that scouts think he should throw more often. Alexander’s slider may work against righties effectively, as well, due to its more vertical shape (versus a normal slider). He may not miss many bats but is an effective relief piece who might only just be discovering something unique.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH (stats-only) statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. *This post was updated with prospects acquired in various offseason trades (McCutchen, Cole) after its initial publication*

60 FV Prospects

Aside from a May back injury that sidelined him for a month, Keller had a successful 2017 and reached Double-A in August. He struck out 116 hitters in 116 innings, against just 32 walks, while continuing his career-long avoidance of the home run. He has surrendered just 13 homers in 317 career innings. The foundation of Keller’s profile is grounded in his fastball and fastball command. He was throwing only in the upper 80s the fall before his senior year of high school, but Keller’s velocity began to increase as the draft approached, and it has continued to do so. His fastball now sits 93-96 and touches 97.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The major-league phase of Thursday’s Rule 5 draft began with its annual roll call of club confirming the number of players currently on their 40-man rosters and ended with a total of 18 players added to new big-league clubs. Below are brief scouting reports on the players selected. I also encourage you to read Chris Mitchell’s stat-focused preview of the group, overall.

But, first: a refresher on the Rule 5 Draft’s complex rules. Players who signed their first pro contract at age 18 or younger are eligible for selection after five years of minor-league service if their parent club has not yet added them to the team’s 40-man roster. For players who signed at age 19 or older, the timeline is four years. Teams with the worst win/loss record from the previous season pick first, and those which select a player must not only (a) pay said player’s former club $100,000, but also (b) keep the player on their 25-man active roster throughout the entirety of the following season (with a couple of exceptions, mostly involving the disabled list). If a selected player doesn’t make his new team’s active roster, he is offered back to his former team for half of the initial fee. After the player’s first year on the roster, he can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

These rules typically limit the talent pool to middle-relief prospects or position players with one-dimensional skillsets or sometimes more talented prospects who aren’t remotely ready for the majors. This creates an environment where selections are made more based on fit and team need than just talent, but teams find solid big-league role players in the Rule 5 every year and occasionally scoop up an eventual star. Let’s dive into the scouting reports on this year’s group.

First Round

1. Detroit Tigers
Victor Reyes, OF (from Arizona)

Reyes is a 23-year-old, switch-hitting outfielder who slashed .292/.332/.399 at Double-A Jackson during the 2017 regular season and then hit .316 and stole 12 bases in 20 Arizona Fall League games. He’s a plus runner with good hand-eye coordination and feel for contact as a left-handed hitter. He also lacks any modicum of in-game power and his right-handed swing is a mess. Scouts are not in unanimous agreement about his defensive ability in center field, though the ones who think he can play there every day believe he could make up the larger half of a platoon in center. Others see him as a bench outfielder.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Miami Marlins received a quartet of prospects – OF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Zac Gallen, and LHP Daniel Castano — from St. Louis in exchange for All-Star outfielder Marcell Ozuna on Wednesday afternoon. Sierra and Alcantara ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, on our recent Cardinals farm system audit, while Gallen ranked 18th. Castano didn’t make the list, which has full reports regarding everyone I discuss below.

Alcantara reached the majors in 2017 but had a somewhat disappointing season, posting a 4.44 ERA at Double-A and a lower strikeout rate relative to his 2016 numbers. He throws hard, 95-99 as a starter and 98-101 in relief, and had one of the more promising curveballs in the minors entering this season. But Alcantara’s repertoire was tinkered with this year. Though he was throwing the curveball early in the season, it was scrapped in his major-league appearances in deference to a mediocre slider, perhaps because Alcantara was exhibiting a higher arm slot when he threw his curveball. In his 2017 Fall League run, Alcantara was utilizing both a curve and slider, though neither was very good. His changeup, which projects to plus, is now his best secondary pitch.

Read the rest of this entry »