Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/19

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let us discuss baseball prospects.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: What is Tyler O’Neill?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have doubts about his ability to hit but think there’s a good chanc e he gets to enough of his power to play every day anyway.

Jimmy Ballgame: Ketel marte for real? His second half/playoff experience has me hopeful

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a believer

Tommy N.: Do you think Enyel De Los Santos can realistically become more than a backend rotation slash bullpen piece?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a #4/5 starter

Gary: Do you see Luis Castillo being an ace for the Reds?

Eric A Longenhagen: For me ‘ace’ is like 3-4 years running of 5+ WAR seasons. So, probably not. I think a better questions is ‘ Will Castillo develop a better breaking ball and command?’

Jordan from Dakota: Have you seen much of the Twins Akil Baddoo? Everything about him screams big time riser in 2018.

Eric A Longenhagen: Big physical tools, not the most graceful ballplayer but it’s working so far. I’ve been a fan for a while and would argue he’s already broken out.

MH: What are your expectations of Jorge Alfaro? Possible stud on both sides or the second coming of Wilin Rosario?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s so frustrating and I know scouts who are just out on him because the aspects of his game that so clearly need improvement are not getting better. And he’s gotten heavier and less athletic. At the same time we know he’s going to run into some homers and the arm strength is special, so at catcher he’s still probably something.

Johnny: Tyler Beede seems to have the parts to be a mid rotation starter, but only fully taps into it in a third of his starts (my rough estimate). Is there a reason to believe he can be more consistent in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: He didn’t look good this fall, more #4/5 starter than potential #2/3, which is where he was at coming out of college.

Pie: Have you seen any of Bukauskas since the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, he made three affiliate starts after the draft.

dusty: How do you rank the upsides of the Twins prospect shortstops ( Lewis, Gordon, and Wander Javier) Thanks .

Eric A Longenhagen: Lewis, but I don’t think he stays at short

John: What is Justus Sheffield and Albert Abreu’s ceiling? Any chance they wear 11 and 53 like Gary and Bobby?

Eric A Longenhagen: #3s, and I fully endorse the jersey # choices

Corey: Any prospect getting drafted in 2018 I should take this year in my minors draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m buying Nander de Sedas

Mushie: This is pretty transparently a fantasy question, but what kind of offensive player is Willy Adames shaping up to be, in your estimation? I see him described in a variety of ways.

Eric A Longenhagen: Solid all-around offensive player whose real-world baseball value is buoyed by his ability to play SS.

Matt H: 2017 Astros draftee Josh Rojas got to, and had an .833 OPS in AAA. Flash in the pan? Or someone interesting?

Eric A Longenhagen: He played four games….

Eric A Longenhagen: He has some low-ball power but lacks the arm for third base.

Friarfaithful117: Australian Winter baseball have any interesting prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Guessing you probABly alReady know who I’m going to sAy, so Let’s AnsweR a questIon About Someone else

Jaxon Roberts: The A’s signed 24 year old Cuban Dairon Blanco yesterday.  Seems like he profiles as a speedster with a touch of patience and contact ability.  Anything else stand out about him, or his he not too high on the prospect watch for anyone else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just a runner. Fringe prospect for me.

Tayne: Barreto’s hit tool still a 60? Can he hold the fort at 2B for a few years?

Eric A Longenhagen: I get Franklin Barreto questions like this every week and I’ll again say: Relax, he’s the age of most college draftees and already has a long track record of success at Triple-A. Do I think he’s a SS? No. But I think he’s going to hit a ton and I think he deserves time.

Johnny: Julian Fernandez’s control seems to have made a step this year. Did you see signs of that in instrux? And chances he can stick with the Giants?

Eric A Longenhagen: Better than ’16 (walk rate was like 20% in 2016) but still a 30 strike-thrower. I give him a fair chance to stick but he will be wild.

Conrad: Could you see MacKenzie Gore skyrocketing all the way to the Majors next year, especially considering the Padres’ aggressiveness with prospect assignments recently?

Eric A Longenhagen: That seems extreme, especially considering some sort of innings limit will likely be part of his first pro season.

Angels Prospects: What do you know about Leonardo Rivas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really like him. Plus-plus runner, patient, good feel for contact, instinctive in all facets, has the arm to stay at short. He’s small, has very little power projection. Lack of physicality might be exposed at upper levels and he might end up looking more like a utility guy if it is, but he’s definitely one to watch.

Cynthia: What do you think of Domingo German? To me, he looks like he should get a chance to start. Do you think he’ll get the chance? And will he perform well?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bullpen for me. That staff is already a little bit backlogged and German has dealt with control and injury issues.

Eye of the Tiger: With the Red Sox signing MM…what is the outlook for Sam Travis?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never been a big Travis guy. I have Chavis ahead of him at 1B now.

Tom: I just want to say, I am thrilled that you and Kiley will be teaming up.

Eric A Longenhagen: Me too.

Wandering Bystander: What are the odds we see a weekly Eric & Kiley podcast?

Eric A Longenhagen: High

Harry: What tier of prospect would McCutchen bring? Thanks for the chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still a Cutch fan but think he needs to move to a corner. I’d be asking for a 50 FV guy for him.

Jane: Considering that he kind of came out of nowhere in the last year or so, would it be ambitious to put a 60 on Michel Baez’s future command?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think that’s reasonable.

Juan: I believe last year you wrote up Grant Holmes as a 45. Has his projection changed at all? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably the same. Still think there’s real risk he’s a reliever but he was near the top of his level’s K leaderboard and has always had good stuff, so even if he’s a relief piece he’s probably a good one.

Not a Phillies Fan: How worried should we be about Estevan Florial’s hitting ability? Has he shown flashes of being a plus hitter or is the hope that he will be merely average

Eric A Longenhagen: I have serious doubts about his ability to hit based on how he looked in Fall League.

VampWeekAtBern: When velocity bumps happen out of nowhere, what do you think is the most common reason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some combination of physical maturation and player development, the latter of which is increasingly using weighted ball training

Manuel A. Machado: Would the Cards be giving up too much to trade Weaver and Flaherty for a year of my services?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I know it’s just the one year, yeah that’s a lot. But if I get an extension done? Sold. I know that’s not how it works from a value/asset analysis perspective blah blah blah. I want a ring, I’m chasing your ass with everything I’ve got and convincing you to sign long term.

Jarrett: Mitch White? Aww yeah?

Eric A Longenhagen: Topped out at 92 for me during instructional league.

Chris A.: Does next year’s June draft class still look deep at the very top?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think the top of the class is about average. Think the depth is in high school pitching, guys who have top 3 round grades lasting into the 5th.

john: assuming everything else is the same would you rather have a pitcher with a 60 fastball 60 curve 60 change or 70 fastball 60 curve 50 change

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on how ‘everything else’ grades out. Plus command? Give me the guy with the 6 change. fringe command? I’ll take the better fastball.

Jonathan: I’m so happy that Kiley is back, not least because I’m hoping it will help you maintain sanity as you slog through these lists.  Having my two favorite prospect analysis under the same roof is pretty flipping fantastic.  How (if at all) will your process for constructing a list change now that you can tap Kiley?

Eric A Longenhagen: Our methods of gathering info about players might be a little different and we’ll probably have to formally synchronize our 20-80 watches at some point, but we line up guys in the same way: Project to a reasonably optimistic outcome for the player, see what kind of baseball value that player has on paper compared big league average, dilute the grade for risk if necessary.

Bort: Estevan Florial, Yordan Alvarez, or Jesus Sanchez: who do you prefer, and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sanchez. Best defender in that group and chance for hit and power whereas Alvarez may not hit for big pop in games.

Mike from Tempe: Can you provide some detail about Aramis Garcia’s defense? Reports on him are all over the place, I’ve never seen so much variance between evaluators on one player.

Eric A Longenhagen: It wasn’t good in AFL so for now that’s where I have it evaluated, but remember catcher defense in the AFL is tough because the guys are exhausted, catching all new pitchers, etc.

tom: brusdar graterol thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Special arm. 97-100 in short bursts, 93-98 during starts without much movement, average cutter/slider in the upper-80s. Generates the velo pretty easily, an impressive physical specimen and athlete. Has had a surgery already.

Rollie’s Mustache: Which pitcher in the Jays’ system has the best chance to stick in a major league rotation long-term? And who’s the highest reward/ceiling guy in your estimation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Zeuch has the most probability, Pearson the most upside if the command comes.

Zach: If you were the Pirates, who would you target in the Yankees system for Cole?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a long list. Assuming they won’t part with Torres, I’d be asking for some combination of Sheffield, Abreu, Perez, Medina and I think PIT would be on Nolan Martinez as their type of body/spin rate throw-in.

Jarrett: Is Dennis Santana purely a future reliever for you, or do you think he has a chance to start in the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have him projected in relief

Jonathan: I’m assuming you’re working on the Pirates list now.  Two questions about Oneil Cruz:  (1) when do you think he gets moved to right field, since he sure as heck looks too massive for third base, and (2) to what degree does his presence in full-season ball as an 18-year-old obscure a scout’s ability to assess him as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. I think they give him another look at 3B (and he’d be one hell of a target at first) but agree he’s likely ticketed for right field, but I don’t know when. He was super raw, probably too raw to be sent to full-season ball last year. Dodgers either had a roster crunch that necessitated it or were showcasing him for trade above the complex level. If a scout who doesn’t cover anything below full-season ball saw him, I’m not sure what they’d make of Cruz as he’s of nearly unprecedented height and athletic ability for someone that height who doesn’t play basketball.

Timson: Eric, thanks for helping me through this last week of 2017 work!  Question: is Willie Calhoun a 60 FV? Is the bat good enough to project him as such if he can be a below average LF?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s either a 60 or 55 and I have him projected as a DH-only. He’s 60 hit, 60 game power for me.

Dibbles: How are you doing Eric? Hope all is well

Eric A Longenhagen: Today is muy bien, I was writing about Luis Escobar before the chat started and will be writing about Travis MacGregor when it’s through.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, wrote up this young man over coffee: https://streamable.com/jx6y6

Anon: How do you form an opinion about unsigned guys in DR? Do you fly down there? Are there sources you trust and go along with it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley goes down there, I talk to international directors and other people that do

Marlins Man: Will I be alive the next time I’m not the only guy on TV in the World Series with a Marlins jersey on?

Eric A Longenhagen: If the Panthers reach the SB will you take me?

Wes: Do you know why Leody Taveras isn’t playing winter ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not. I’ll ask around and if it’s because of anything other than ‘so he can have an offseason’ I’ll try to get word out. Haven’t heard anything is wrong.

VampWeekAtBern: Which pitching prospect would benefit the most from a 2 MPH jump in velocity?

Eric A Longenhagen: I get to keep present command? Ragans

Mile-High: Help me Longen-Won-Kenobi…. you’re my only hope. Got the ability to take either Maitan, Luzardo, or Mike Baez this Winter and I can’t decide who. Make me a winner.

Eric A Longenhagen: Baez, then Luzardo.

Rich: Juan De Paula,NYY, has a 2.69 ERA over 180 innings and 174 strikeouts with 51 walks. What is his projection reliever or has he got the stuff to stick as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris saw him this summer: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-new-york-penn-league-pref-list-for-2…

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him, think there’s enough there that he can start and that his fastball is going to tick up as he becomes stronger and more explosive.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Is Kiley going to get a chat? Or join you on Tuesdays?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure about the chat situation yet.

Esteury Ruiz: Can I start next year in the Midwest league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Your bat can but your glove stays in extended

Randy : What are the chances that Daniel Johnson can join Robles and Soto in the National’s outfield in 2020?

Eric A Longenhagen: 20%? Didn’t look great in AFL. Still raw.

Ian: Can you see Eddy Julio Martinez as a viable outfielder in the major league or does his bat fall below the requirement, I have heard his defense is solid

Eric A Longenhagen: Not looking like an everyday player at this point but still has big league tools. Had him written up as a bench OF on the Cubs list.

Matt: Will kiley be helping with the prospect lists? Would it help to make it a little faster?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and yes

BarryBaker: Here is a name for you Eric….Jean Carlos Arias,OF from Twins org, tell me something about him if you can

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, 19 y/o Dominican OF who repeated GCL this year and saw big uptick in performance. Has some wrist strength but swing has length, stiffness. I know he hit this year but I’m skeptical of him as a prospect.

Matt: Hey Eric, who do you think has the better overall offensive profile between Acuna and Robles? This is a poorly disguised fantasy baseball dynasty question 🙂 It seems Acuna is hitting better at a (slightly) younger age, so i’ve been surprised by a lot of folks choosing robles!

Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna is going to hit for more power. His profile has more risk because his at-bats are out of control at times and he gives plate appearances away. If/when he grows out of that, he could be a god. Robles plays within himself, takes what he’s given and makes the most of it. He’s also a better defensive CF than Acuna by a wide margin. I think I’m saying Acuna here but acknowledge Robles’ profile is a little more stable.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How much weight do you place on the vision issues surrounding the former MIN, now TB prospect Jelfry Marte?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, trying to find the article where Marte’s vision issues are explained…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, it’s a Mike Berardino report that his vision, when corrected is 20/25. We all know what that means but I’m not sure how it will manifest itself on the field aside from concerns about how it impacts his hitting

eppler: what do you see as a best case comp for brandon marsh

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard the Rasmus commps and don’t hate those, but this kid has better makeup

Jason: Jake Bauers or Pavin Smith?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bauers

Ian: Miles Gordon, yay or nay?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still on him but he isn’t a premium guy.

Russell: Carson was already predicting Max Schrock would win a MVP in the future. Now that he’s with the Cardinals is it safe to upgrade to future HoF now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Carson has petitioned Santa Maria delle Grazie to let him paint Schrock’s face over JC’s.

Liam Skywalker: Can the new rule 5 draft pick for Orioles Pedro Araujo stick as a legit reliever for the whole season? his numbers in high a show good command skills

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 3 on his fastball command based on what I saw in the AFL and he only sits 90-94, but that’s a 70 breaking ball. He  has a fair shot.

Eric A Longenhagen: Better than Mesa, in my opinion.

M.D. Pepper : Griffin Canning, mid-rotation arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average big league starter if healthy.

Nick: Where are scouting reports for Schrock and Muñoz gonna be since the cardinals list had already gone up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll just add then to the Cards list

Will: Thanks for the chat! Thoughts on Kevin Kramer? Enough bat to be a regular at 2B?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe. Made a swing change that increased launch angle (drink) but we have to wait and see just how much power he’s going to hit for in games.

Luis Urias: Can I hit .400/.550/.600 at El Paso? Seems like the PCL is gonna light my bat on fire

Eric A Longenhagen: Please literally hit with a flaming bat. Someone, doesn’t have to be Urias.

Will: Which Yankee infielder do you like best out of Solak, Wade, Estrada?

Eric A Longenhagen: Estrada

yaya: What’s Jhoan Duran missing from breaking out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maturity and a better breaking ball

Fair line: What baseball do you watch in January?

Eric A Longenhagen: Junior college ball

Ducklin: The tigers improving farm is heavy at the top with pitchers. Any little-known position players in their system primed for a breakout? Wenceel Perez a candidate?

Eric A Longenhagen: AH, yes I do like Perez. Good frame, some feel for moving the barrel around, still learning to use the rest of his body to drive the ball so not much power right now. Either needs to stay at SS or develop more power but he’s a prospect. I also like Sam McMillan.

Slothrop: Is there a good reason developing two-way talent isn’t prioritized? Has there ever been a *real* emphasis on it with certain players, or do teams just take a prospects most obvious workable qualities and develop those? What I’m getting at is this – do you think that if Shohei actually produces value on both sides of the ball, that teams might think more seriously about cultivating two-way talent for prospects who seem like they might be good candidates for it? Or have they been serious about it in the past and determined that it’s not worth it

Eric A Longenhagen: This is going to sound like such a bullshit insider answer and I’m sorry about that, but you do really have to come down to the minor league complexes and just take a gander at how much work it takes to become a big leaguer on one side of the ball, let alone stay there as someone who does both. I’m not saying it isn’t worth a try but I can’t wrap my head around how it’s feasible from a player development perspective. While the hitters are taking BP and doing drills, the pitchers are throwing bullpens and working with coaches. Unless you have a Time Turner, you can’t be in both places at once, and you can’t just work on the other thing later because you have a game to get to. There are many barriers to this that nobody is considering.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oookay, that’s going to do it for me this week. I don’t know if next week’s chats are tweaked for Christmas, so in the event that I don’t see or talk to any of you I want to wish you all a very happy holiday and New Year. Thanks for supporting our work at FanGraphs. We all really appreciate it, and you and baseball and hope we enrich your relationship with this great game.  Have a great rest of 2017 an beyond, not just from me but from my wife, who likes to take a peek at our site now and then and can’t believe how wonderful our readership is.