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Scouting the Braves’ and Rays’ New Prospects

The Seattle Mariners made a pair of moves yesterday, the first of which featured the acquisition of OF Mallex Smith from Atlanta in exchange for pitching prospects Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara. They then turned Smith around and sent him to Tampa along with teenage INF Carlos Vargas and LHP Ryan Yarbrough for LHP Drew Smyly. Below are scouting reports on the prospects involved — as well as for Smith himself.

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Top 21 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Pirates Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Austin Meadows 21 AAA OF 2017 65
2 Tyler Glasnow 23 MLB RHP 2017 55
3 Mitch Keller 20 A+ RHP 2019 55
4 Josh Bell 24 MLB 1B 2017 55
5 Kevin Newman 23 AA SS 2018 50
6 Ke’Bryan Hayes 19 A 3B 2020 50
7 Cole Tucker 20 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Steven Brault 24 MLB LHP 2017 45
9 Will Craig 22 A- DH 2019 45
10 Alen Hanson 24 MLB 2B 2017 45
11 Nick Kingham 25 AAA RHP 2017 45
12 Elias Diaz 26 MLB C 2017 40
13 Taylor Hearn 22 A LHP 2020 40
14 Gage Hinsz 20 A RHP 2020 40
15 Trevor Williams 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Clay Holmes 23 AA RHP 2017 40
17 Luis Escobar 20 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Travis Macgregor 19 R RHP 2020 40
19 Edgar Santana 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
20 Stephen Alemais 21 A SS 2020 40
21 Braeden Ogle 19 R LHP 2022 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Grayson HS (GA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/70 55/60 45/60 60/55 40/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .266/.333/.536 between Double- and Triple-A as a 21-year-old.

Scouting Report
Meadows dominated Double-A for 45 games before receiving a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-June. Soon after that, he spent a month on the DL with a hamstring injury, the third one with which Meadows has dealt in as many years (he had reoccurring hammy issues in 2014) and never got things going after he returned, slashing .214/.297/.460. Even so, that’s not alarming in any way for a 21-year-old, especially in a small sample.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, the Thaw

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone. There’s actual baseball being played here in AZ this week, rejoice rejoice.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, the Pirates list is done and being edited, I’d expect that tomorrow.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin

12:02
Owen: Dylan Cease: SP or RP?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: SP until he proves he can’t do it. I like the progression he’s shown since returning from TJ, less violent delivery, better fastball and curveball control.

12:03
Zonk: Is there something Mark Zagunis can do to get more interesting for you as a prospect guru?

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Top 32 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Reds Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Senzel 21 A 3B 2018 55
2 Amir Garrett 24 AAA LHP 2017 55
3 Jesse Winker 23 AAA OF 2017 50
4 Aristides Aquino 22 A+ OF 2019 50
5 Shedric Long 21 A+ 2B 2019 50
6 Taylor Trammell 19 R OF 2021 45
7 Robert Stephenson 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
8 Chris Okey 22 A C 2019 45
9 T.J. Friedl 21 R CF 2019 45
10 Luis Castillo 24 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Tyler Stephenson 20 A C 2020 45
12 Alfredo Rodriguez 22 R SS 2018 45
13 Rookie Davis 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
14 Phil Ervin 24 AA OF 2017 45
15 Sal Romano 23 AA RHP 2018 45
16 Tyler Mahle 22 AA RHP 2018 45
17 Keury Mella 23 AAA RHP 2018 40
18 Ariel Hernandez 24 R RHP 2017 40
19 Sebastian Elizalde 25 AAA OF 2018 40
20 Vlad Gutierrez 21 R RHP 2019 40
21 Tony Santillan 19 A RHP 2020 40
22 Austin Brice 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
23 Jimmy Herget 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
24 Blake Trahan 23 A+ SS 2019 40
25 Nick Travieso 22 AA RHP 2018 40
26 Ian Kahaloa 19 R RHP 2021 40
27 Juan Perez 25 R UTIL 2017 40
28 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40
29 Alex Blandino 24 AA 2B 2018 40
30 Tanner Rainey 24 A RHP 2018 40
31 Nick Hanson 18 R RHP 2022 40
32 Ryan Hendrix 22 A RHP 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee
Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/60 40/55 55/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Dramatically increased ISO (.170 as a sophomore, .243 as junior) at University of Tennessee in 2016 and stole 25 bases at an 86% clip.

Scouting Report
A young-for-the-class SEC hitter with a long track record of success, Senzel was the most polished bat available in the 2016 draft. I saw him early in the year during a four-team round robin in Arizona and thought he’d go somewhere in the top 10-15 picks. While facing pitching far beneath the quality of arms he’d see later in the year during SEC play, Senzel finished the weekend 8-for-13 with four doubles, six walks, five of those on the final day of play. Despite my own enthusiasm, when a scout told me they thought he had an outside shot at going 1-1, I scoffed. Senzel was drafted No. 2 overall by Cincy in June. There are probably a few reasons for this, beyond a potential misevaluation of Senzel’s talent. Prospects ahead of Senzel on my board at that time (such as Jason Groome, Delvin Perez, Alec Hansen) all saw their stocks dip for one reason or another during the spring, while Senzel continued to rake. Moreover, he was one of the safest prospects in a draft class without huge, risk-worthy talent up top.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Back to Work

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from scenic Tempe. Are you well? I hope so. Let’s begin a marvelous discussion about baseball.

12:03
chris: How worrisome is Bradley Zimmer’s strikeout rate? How does it affect his outlook for 2017?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a bit of a red flag but one that I think he’ll overcome with the power and defense.

12:03
Philip: Which lower level padres prospect that isn’t getting a lot of attention do you think can break out?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Michel Miliano

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a long term one.

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Top 19 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Detroit Tigers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Tigers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Manning 18 R RHP 2020 55
2 Christin Stewart 23 AA OF 2018 50
3 Beau Burrows 20 A RHP 2020 45
4 Tyler Alexander 22 AA LHP 2018 45
5 Michael Gerber 24 AA OF 2018 45
6 Joe Jimenez 21 AAA RHP 2017 45
7 Dixon Machado 24 MLB SS 2017 45
8 Derek Hill 20 A OF 2021 40
9 Jose Azocar 20 A OF 2020 40
10 Kyle Funkhouser 22 A- RHP 2019 40
11 Jacoby Jones 24 MLB OF 2017 40
12 Adam Ravenelle 24 AA RHP 2017 40
13 Gerson Moreno 21 A+ RHP 2019 40
14 Sandy Baez 23 A RHP 2019 40
15 Hector Martinez 20 R SS 2021 40
16 Arvicent Perez 22 A C 2020 40
17 Kevin Ziomek 24 A+ LHP 2018 40
18 Spencer Turnbull 24 A+ RHP 2018 40
19 A.J. Simcox 22 A+ SS 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Sheldon HS (CA)
Age 19 Height 6’6 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/60 40/50 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded 46 recorded in 29 pro innings.

Scouting Report
Manning is the prototypical prep righty. He has tremendous size, throws hard, is a terrific athlete (he was committed to Loyola Marymount to play baseball and basketball) with great bloodlines (his father played in the NBA) and has exhibited a nascent feel for a potentially dominant curveball. Any high-school pitcher cooking with that list of ingredients is a slam-dunk first-round pick, and Manning was clearly the second-best high-school righty in the 2016 draft.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat, Making a List

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, hope you’re all well. ICYMI, the Royals prospect list went up yesterday and I’m finishing up Detroit today before moving on to the NL Central. Let’s begin…

12:03
Roadhog: Any thoughts on Paul Blackburn?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Teams typically need 10 starters to get through a season and Blackburn projects as one of those 10, an up and down depth arm.

12:04
Bill: I miss Josh Tobias and wish him the best. Thoughts on him?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Good feel for the barrel, good approach, scouts don’t like the defense at 2B and he doesn’t have the power to profile anywhere else so it’s a bench bat profile. He’ll need to diversify his defensive portfolio moving forward.

12:05
John: Which level of the Padres minor league system will be the one to watch?

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Top 20 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Kansas City Royals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Royals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Strahm 25 MLB LHP 2017 55
2 Hunter Dozier 25 MLB 3B 2017 50
3 Josh Staumont 22 AA RHP 2018 45
4 Ryan O’Hearn 23 AA 1B 2018 45
5 Scott Blewett 20 A RHP 2020 45
6 A.J. Puckett 21 A RHP 2019 45
7 Khalil Lee 18 R OF 2021 45
8 Eric Skoglund 24 AA LHP 2017 45
9 Meibrys Viloria 19 R C 2020 45
10 Jorge Bonifacio 23 AAA OF 2017 45
11 Seuly Matias 18 R OF 2021 40
12 Nolan Watson 19 A RHP 2020 40
13 Jake Junis 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
14 Kyle Zimmer 25 AA RHP 2019 40
15 Samir Duenez 20 AA 1B 2019 40
16 Chase Vallot 20 A C 2020 40
17 Miguel Almonte 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
18 Garrett Davila 19 R LHP 2019 40
19 Jeison Guzman 18 R SS 2021 40
20 Nicky Lopez 21 R SS 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Matt Strahm, LHP
Drafted: 21st Round, 2012 from Neosho CCC (KS)
Age 25 Height 6’4 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 60/70 45/50 50/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 30 strikeouts in 22 big-league innings.

Scouting Report
Strahm saw a 148% uptick in innings as a sophomore at Neosho CC in 2012 and pitched complete games in 11 of his 14 starts (though many of them were not a full nine innings). Strahm dominated and his stuff ticked up as the year went along. (All told, Strahm added almost 15 mph to his fastball between his senior year of high school and his sophomore year of JUCO.) Nevertheless, he lasted until the 21st round of June’s draft. He began experiencing discomfort in his elbow during the 2012 offseason and was misdiagnosed with a stress reaction when in fact he needed Tommy John, which he ultimately received in the summer of 2013. He missed all of 2014 recovering.

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Scouting the White Sox’ Return for Adam Eaton

The White Sox continued adding to their suddenly robust farm system yesterday, acquiring a trio of pitching prospects from Washington in exchange for star outfielder Adam Eaton. Below are my scouting reports on the prospects involved. Lucas Giolito (60 Future Value) will slot in behind Yoan Moncada on the next revision of the White Sox prospect list, the completions of which I might delay until Rick Hahn’s purge of the major-league roster appears complete. Reynaldo Lopez will slot between Michael Kopech and Zack Collins as a 55 FV, while Dane Dunning will be the top 45 FV on the list.

The once Prodigious Lucas Giolito has more recently become the Enigmatic Lucas Giolito. While he remains one of baseball’s best pitching prospects after an inconsistent 2016, Giolito is no longer head-and-shoulders the game’s best. The opinions of scouts who saw Giolito this year make for an interesting collage of hope, fear, tempered expectations and patience, but all agree that front-end starter upside is still extant, if a bit less likely.

That kind of upside has been apparent since Giolito’s days at Harvard-Westlake, where, before suffering a season-ending elbow injury that would later require Tommy John surgery, he was generating potential 1-1 buzz and had a legitimate chance to become the first right-handed high-school pitcher ever taken with the draft’s first pick.

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Scouting the White Sox’ Monster Return for Chris Sale

In what will probably be the blockbuster deal of the entire offseason, the White Sox sent LHP Chris Sale to Boston this afternoon in exchange for two of the highest-upside prospects in baseball, Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, as well as tools-goof outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and arm-strength lottery ticket Victor Diaz. Below are my scouting reports on the prospects involved. I’ll update the White Sox prospect list with these reports later this evening. Moncada will be No. 1 and Kopech No. 2, with Basabe slotting in toward the back of the org’s top 10 and Diaz falling toward the bottom of the 40 FV section.

It’s strange that one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the minor leagues is involved in this deal and yet somehow not its headliner. Such is the prodigious talent of Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada, who I believe to be the best prospect in all of baseball despite his swing-and-miss issues. A generational talent who possesses one of the most robust collections of tools I’ve seen, Moncada has an SEC running back’s body at an athletic and strong 6-foot-2, 205 pounds. There are very few, if any, comparable physiques across baseball.

He’s also a plus-plus runner, both from home to first and on the bases, scattering large swaths of dirt behind him as he traverses the bases. I think Moncada is going to retain that speed for quite a while despite already appearing to have maxed out physically. Even if he does lose a step with age (and it will probably happen at some point), I expect Moncada to retain impact plus speed into his late 20s or early 30s, even if he’s no longer an elite runner at peak.

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