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Top 20 Prospects: Washington Nationals

by
March 6, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Washington Nationals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Nationals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Victor Robles 19 A+ CF 2019 60
2 Juan Soto 18 A- OF 2020 50
3 Erick Fedde 24 AA RHP 2018 50
4 Luis Garcia 16 R SS 2022 45
5 Carter Kieboom 19 R 3B 2021 45
6 Koda Glover 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
7 Andrew Stevenson 22 AA OF 2018 45
8 Sheldon Neuse 22 A- 3B 2019 40
9 Jesus Luzardo 19 R LHP 2020 40
10 Osvaldo Abreu 22 A+ UTIL 2019 40
11 Kelvin Gutierrez 22 A+ 3B 2019 40
12 A.J. Cole 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
13 Pedro Severino 23 MLB C 2017 40
14 Rafael Bautista 23 AA OF 2017 40
15 Austin Voth 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
16 Blake Perkins 20 A CF 2020 40
17 Joan Baez 22 A RHP 2019 40
18 Brian Goodwin 26 MLB OF 2017 40
19 Jose Marmolejos 24 AA 1B 2018 40
20 Anderson Franco 19 A- 3B 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

1. Victor Robles, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic
Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/70 40/50 30/45 70/60 45/55 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .280/.376/.423 with 37 stolen bases in 2016.

Scouting Report
Scouts rightly venerate Robles’ heavenly feel to hit. He identifies balls and strikes consistently, makes mid-flight adjustments to breaking balls, casually wields plus bat speed and has feel for the barrel. He’s one of the better pure hitting prospects in the minor leagues, spraying high-quality contact to all fields and then wreaking havoc on the bases. Robles is also a plus-plus runner whose routes in center field are fine, if perhaps a bit circuitous at times. But, just on his speed, he projects as a 55 defender in center field rather conservatively, which allows him to vigilantly guard both outfield gaps. There’s a chance he’s plus there at peak if his reads (especially on balls hit toward shallow center) improve. He also has a plus-plus arm.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Where is Tebow?

by
February 28, 2017
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning everyone, we’ll keep things tight to an hour today as I wrap up the Washington prospect list and move on to New York (AL).
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s the Mets list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-new-york-mets/
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: let’s begin
12:03
Slamboni: What are your thoughts on Anderson Tejada? Still young and has room to grow, but his numbers intrigue me
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I like him. Good bat speed, you’re right that the body has more to give and there’s already some power in there, not sure he’s a shortstop but the bat projects fine at second base and if he does stay at short he could be a star. Was raw vs any offspeed stuff in AZL but showed some ability to adjust.
12:04
Fred: Do you prefer Allard or Braxton Garrett?

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Top 20 Prospects: New York Mets

by
February 28, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the New York Mets farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Mets Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Amed Rosario 21 AA SS 2017 65
2 Robert Gsellman 23 MLB RHP 2017 55
3 Dom Smith 21 AA 1B 2017 50
4 Justin Dunn 21 A- RHP 2019 50
5 Andres Gimenez 18 R SS 2020 50
6 Desmond Lindsay 20 A- OF 2020 45
7 Thomas Szapucki 20 A- LHP 2020 45
8 Thomas Nido 22 A+ C 2018 45
9 Brandon Nimmo 23 MLB OF 2017 45
10 Gregory Guerrero 18 R SS 2020 45
11 Gavin Cecchini 23 MLB 2B 2017 45
12 Peter Alonso 22 A- 1B 2020 40
13 Wuilmer Becerra 22 A+ OF 2019 40
14 Josh Smoker 28 MLB LHP 2017 40
15 Luis Guillorme 22 A+ UTIL 2018 40
16 Merandy Gonzalez 21 A- RHP 2019 40
17 Marcos Molina 21 A+ RHP 2018 40
18 Ricardo Cespedes 19 R OF 2020 40
19 Luis Carpio 19 A- UTIL 2020 40
20 Paul Sewald 26 AAA RHP 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

1. Amed Rosario, SS
Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’2 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 50/55 40/50 60/60 55/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .324/.374/.459 between High-A and Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
When Rosario was a teenager, he was a messy amalgam of limbs, athleticism and clearly present baseball instincts that were all wholly unsupported by a lack of physical strength. As he has started to fill out (it was easy to see, even back in 2012, that he was going to) and gotten stronger, he has become more explosive, his actions more refined, and he’s begun to hit. And indeed, at just 21 years old with more room for mass on the body, Amed Rosario has just begun.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, French I Took

by
February 21, 2017
11:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi all, links quick before I get going….
11:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Braves list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves/
11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I was in San Diego to see Vanderbilt over the weekend so video of relevant guys is starting to go up.
11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s Jeren Kendall.

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hitting ASU’s afternoon game against Oklahoma State today and will write up Kyle Wright, Kendall + others for later this week.
12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s start.

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Top 32 Prospects: Atlanta Braves

by
February 21, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Atlanta Braves farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Braves Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Dansby Swanson 23 MLB SS 2017 65
2 Ozzie Albies 20 AAA 2B 2018 60
3 Ronald Acuna 19 A CF 2020 55
4 Kolby Allard 19 A LHP 2019 55
5 Kevin Maitan 17 R 3B 2021 55
6 Ian Anderson 18 R RHP 2021 55
7 Max Fried 23 A LHP 2018 55
8 Luiz Gohara 20 A LHP 2019 55
9 Mike Soroka 19 A RHP 2020 50
10 Cristian Pache 18 R CF 2020 50
11 Sean Newcomb 23 AA LHP 2018 50
12 Joey Wentz 19 R LHP 2021 50
13 Touki Touisaint 20 A RHP 2019 45
14 Patrick Weigel 22 AA RHP 2018 45
15 Travis Demeritte 22 A+ 2B 2019 45
16 Kyle Muller 19 R LHP 2020 45
17 Ray-Patrick Didder 22 A OF 2019 45
18 Dustin Peterson 22 AA LF 2018 45
19 Brett Cumberland 21 R C 2019 40
20 A.J. Minter 23 AA LHP 2017 40
21 Drew Harrington 21 R LHP 2019 40
22 Derian Cruz 18 R SS 2021 40
23 Yunior Severino 17 R SS 2022 40
24 Alex Jackson 21 A C 2021 40
25 Rio Ruiz 22 MLB 3B 2017 40
26 Dylan Moore 24 A+ UTIL 2018 40
27 Mauricio Cabrera 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
28 Austin Riley 19 A 3B 2021 40
29 Bryse Wilson 19 R RHP 2020 40
30 Ricardo Sanchez 19 A LHP 2020 40
31 Jonathan Morales 22 A C 2019 40
32 Randy Ventura 19 R RF 2020 40

65 FV Prospects

1. Dansby Swanson, SS
Video
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt
Age 23 Height 6’1 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 40/45 60/60 55/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .302/.361/.442 in 145 MLB plate appearances.

Scouting Report
The first-overall pick by Arizona in 2015, Swanson barely played affiliated ball for the Diamondbacks after he was hit in the face by a Yoan Lopez pitch on the backfields in Scottsdale shortly after signing. Swanson, who still wears a face guard on his batting helmet, was traded to Atlanta that December in the Shelby Miller deal.

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Top 13 Prospects: Miami Marlins

by
February 13, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Miami Marlins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Marlins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Braxton Garrett 19 R LHP 2019 55
2 Brian Anderson 23 AA 3B 2017 45
3 Tyler Kolek 21 A RHP 2020 45
4 Thomas Jones 19 R OF 2021 45
5 Edward Cabrera 18 R RHP 2021 45
6 Dillon Peters 24 AA LHP 2018 40
7 Jarlin Garcia 24 AA LHP 2017 40
8 Isael Soto 20 A RF 2019 40
9 J.T. Riddle 25 AAA SS 2017 40
10 Cody Poteet 22 A RHP 2019 40
11 Stone Garrett 21 A OF 2019 40
12 Yefri Perez 25 MLB UTIL 2017 40
13 Drew Steckenrider 26 AAA RHP 2017 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Braxton Garrett, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Florence HS (AL)
Age 19 Height 6’3 Weight 190 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
50/50 55/60 40/55 45/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Didn’t pitch during season after signing.

Scouting Report
I had some issues with the effort in Garrett’s delivery during his summer showcase appearances and didn’t think he got out over his front side consistently. By his senior spring, those issues had evaporated and Garrett became one of the better prep arms available in the 2016 draft. He’s an excellent barometer for what a top-15 prep lefty looks like: 90-93 with a plus-flashing curveball and an arm action/athleticism that allows for projection on the command and changeup, both of which Garrett has already shown in spurts.

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Top 33 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

by
February 8, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Phillies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 J.P. Crawford 22 AAA SS 2017 60
2 Mickey Moniak 18 R OF 2019 55
3 Jorge Alfaro 23 MLB C 2017 55
4 Sixto Sanchez 18 R RHP 2020 45
5 Roman Quinn 23 MLB CF 2017 45
6 Adonis Medina 20 A- RHP 2020 45
7 Elniery Garcia 22 A+ LHP 2017 45
8 Franklyn Kilome 21 A RHP 2020 45
9 Rhys Hoskins 24 AA 1B 2018 45
10 Dylan Cozens 22 AA OF 2018 45
11 Kevin Gowdy 19 R RHP 2020 45
12 Scott Kingery 22 AA 2B 2018 45
13 Nick Williams 23 AAA OF 2017 45
14 Daniel Brito 19 R 2B 2020 40
15 Jhailyn Ortiz 18 R OF 2021 40
16 Drew Anderson 22 A+ RHP 2017 40
17 Bailey Falter 19 A- LHP 2020 40
18 Seranthony Dominguez 22 A RHP 2019 40
19 Carlos Tocci 21 A+ CF 2018 40
20 Cornelius Randolph 19 A LF 2020 40
21 Thomas Eshelman 22 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Victor Arano 21 AA RHP 2017 40
23 Andrew Knapp 25 AAA C 2017 40
24 Cole Stobbe 19 R SS 2021 40
25 Mark Appel 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Alberto Tirado 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
27 Nick Pivetta 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
28 Arquimedez Gamboa 19 A- SS 2021 40
29 JoJo Romero 20 A- LHP 2020 40
30 Andrew Pullin 23 AA LF 2018 40
31 Jose Pujols 21 R RF 2020 40
32 Ricardo Pinto 23 AA RHP 2017 40
33 Malquin Canelo 22 A+ SS 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

1. J.P. Crawford, SS
Video
Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Lakewood HS (CA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 180 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 40/45 30/40 50/50 50/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .244/.328/.318 with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Scouting Report
Crawford’s lackluster statistical output at Triple-A in 2016 is far less problematic when you accept that his 2015 and 2016 stints at Double-A were embellished by the same hitting environment that has given us Angry Philly Sports Radio hype for Darin Ruf and Matt Rizzotti. I’ve been to Reading a lot and can’t explain what’s going on there; batted balls just keep going until they’re over the wall. This is important to consider throughout the duration of this piece as we have a few hitters on this list who had huge years there at some point, and their statistical output requires context.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Ten Days to Sanctity

by
February 7, 2017
12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Arizona.
12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat, go.
12:03

Nientsniew: What happened to Giolito’s mechanics that made him struggle?
12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure Giolito has said publicly that they tried to make him more upright, but I don’t know that that’s why he struggled. It just seems illogical, on the surface, to mess with one of the better pitching prospects in baseball like that.
12:04

AA: Which Cody Reed do you feel will have the better career? I feel Cincinnati’s Reed has been a bit disappointing but still think he’s got more upside than Cody Reed Arizona.
12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: CIN’s Cody Reed I think will be a fine mid-rotation starter. I do not ARI’s Cody Reed to be a prospect.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat vs Monster Zero

by
January 31, 2017
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone.
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: So, there are A LOT of questions in the queue about other peoples’ lists. I won’t be answering any of those.
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: I will say this…
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: The gap between Prospect # 20 on a list and prospect #80 on someone else’s looks a lot bigger than it actually is.
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’m looking at my Top 100 right now and the gap between #2 on the list and #21 is literally a half grade
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: And those tiers get even bigger the further down you go.

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Top 24 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals

by
January 31, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

Cardinals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Alex Reyes 22 MLB RHP 2017 65
2 Delvin Perez 18 R SS 2021 55
3 Sandy Alcantara 21 A+ RHP 2018 55
4 Carson Kelly 22 MLB C 2017 50
5 Luke Weaver 23 MLB RHP 2017 50
6 Jack Flaherty 21 A+ RHP 2018 50
7 Dakota Hudson 22 A+ RHP 2019 50
8 Eliezer Alvarez 22 A 2B 2019 45
9 Magneuris Sierra 20 A OF 2020 45
10 Edmundo Sosa 20 A+ SS 2019 45
11 Harrison Bader 22 AAA OF 2017 45
12 Junior Fernandez 19 A+ RHP 2018 45
13 Paul DeJong 23 AA 2B 2017 45
14 Jordan Hicks 20 A- RHP 2020 40
15 Austin Gomber 23 AA LHP 2018 40
16 Randy Arozarena 21 AAA UTIL 2018 40
17 Marcos Gonzalez 24 MLB LHP 2017 40
18 Jake Woodford 20 A RHP 2020 40
19 Nick Plummer 20 R OF 2021 40
20 Dylan Carlson 18 R OF 2020 40
21 Andrew Morales 24 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Connor Jones 22 A- RHP 2019 40
23 Zac Gallen 21 R RHP 2019 40
24 John Gant 24 MLB RHP 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

1. Alex Reyes, RHP
Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republlic
Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 45/50 60/60 55/60 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Average fastball velo was 97 mph in big-league appearances.

Scouting Report
The rate at which Reyes missed bats during his 46-inning big-league stint last year is encouraging considering he only turned 22 in August and his repertoire is still relatively amorphous. By now you should know about his fastball, a plus-plus seed that sits in the mid-90s and will crest 100 during relief outings. That velocity arguably allows an already average-to-above changeup play as plus as hitters are geared up for elite velocity only to wave helplessly at a fading 86-91.

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