Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, French I Took

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi all, links quick before I get going….

Eric A Longenhagen: Braves list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves/

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I was in San Diego to see Vanderbilt over the weekend so video of relevant guys is starting to go up.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s Jeren Kendall.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hitting ASU’s afternoon game against Oklahoma State today and will write up Kyle Wright, Kendall + others for later this week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s start.

NAt: What’s Mitch Keller’s ceiling? Is he for real?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ceiling is probably a #2/3, Full report is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

Greg: I’m still a long way from finished with your Braves write up, but had a question. In your calls and research for it, which player were you most surprised how your feelings changed throughout the process?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shifting Soroka ahead of Newcomb is not something I had anticipated at onset.

Mike B. : Lewis Brinson. Do you see an annual 20/20 player here, or does he have some work to do.

Eric A Longenhagen: Probaly won’t be 20/20 immediately, expecting that seems foolish. But has the talent to do it at peak and I think he will. full report: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

ManBearPuig: Dansby Swanson or JP Crawford?

Eric A Longenhagen: Swanson but it’s obviously a close call.

Dan: Interesting to see you peg Phil Pfeifer as a mop up rather than LOOGY. He has a funky delivery and good breaking stuff. It’s my understanding that command is not as essential for LOOGYs. What moves the scales toward mop up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depth of repertoire, it’s four pitches.

Alex: Your writeup on Acuna is glowing, but you mention Pache as having the highest ceiling besides Maitan. What does Pache have to make up for the significant dip in power from Acuna to Pache?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pache might approach Acuna’s power and also be a 70 defender in CF. Not likely but possible.

Twins Fan: do you think that stephen gonsalves slider has the chance to be an average pitch?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think given his slot/deception and the likelihood that it’s used more heavily against lefties that it will play close to average.

Tommy: What does Jacob Nix need to work on and can he be a top 100 prospect in the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he just retains his stuff and level of performance through Double-A he’s a top 100 guy.

Zach: Does Reyes retain his 65 FV status despite the UCL tear?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, it’d be cheating for me to go back and change it. I knew he was a pitcher when I wrote him up.

Anthony: Thoughts on Kevin Padlo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kevin Frandsen body, has a pull-only approach that I want to see him maintain against pitchers who know how to work around it but the raw power is there if he can get to it.

fresh basil: Pick 2 of 3. Eloy, Vlad Jr., Bellinger.

Eric A Longenhagen: You really can’t go wrong.

Jay Joseph : ETA on Ozzie Albies‘ promotion to Atlanta?

Eric A Longenhagen: When he’s healthy and someone else gets hurt (shrug), nobody knows.

Jay Joseph : Are there real concerns about Joey Wentz’s velocity dip and dead arm problems or is it just a young kid going through the rigours of a pro season?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are actual concerns because it happened two years in a row.

Buff: Good to have you chatting again. Please rank: Moniak, Acuna, Delvin Perez, Juan Soto.

Eric A Longenhagen: First three are on even footing for me, Soto would be fourth.

Adam: Is Luis Sardinas too young to give up on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, talented and only 23 but that’s probably a utility profile or low end regular anyway, right?

Adam: In a deep draft for college arms, does that make it easier for one of the top 3 teams to take a risk on Hunter Greene knowing they can probably get someone closer to the majors with their next pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an interesting idea but it’s easier to move the prep kids back than it is college.

Adam: Are their any Kevin Kiermaier type defensive CF’s coming up through the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Granite, Magneuris Sierra, maybe Derek Hill if he could stay healthy.

El Duderino: Tu parles Francais?

Eric A Longenhagen: No I just like Sam Cooke.

37: Just saw your write-up on Ozzie Albies this morning. I’m excited to see him in the bigs. Some sites have him compared to Jose Altuve without double digit home runs. This seems a little optimistic, comparing a prospect to the best 2B in the game. How optimistic is it though?

Eric A Longenhagen: Altuve is one of those guys you just don’t comp to, ever. He’s a wholly unique entity. You can’t do it without qualifiers. If a prospect is “This Guy but with more power” or “That Guy but taller and with a curveball” then he isn’t This Guy or That Guy.

The Decadent Moose: Jose Berrios wasn’t on your Twins Prospect List evaluation. I’m not sure I’ve read your opinions on him and his somewhat disaster of a debut. I’d like to read what you have to offer.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he exceeded rookie eligibility last year so not eligible for the list. I’m concerned because he was so horrendously bad but I don’t think you just close to book on a guy who was once flashing three plus pitches.

Matthew: Andrelton Simmons is my favorite player, but now that he’s with the Angels I never see him play. Any players coming up who might be as exciting defensively who actually end up on TV?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d just familiarize myself with Francisco Lindor if I were you.

Big Tuna: Some shine has worn off of Jose De Leon, Lucas Giolito, and Tyler Glasnow. Do you think any of that is warranted or are you still high on their MLB potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still like all of those guys but have always been lower on Glasnow because I think there’s a more significant risk he ends up in the bullpen.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s lower on Glasnow than others are, not lower on him than De Leon.

John: Thoughts on Tyler Wade? I’ve seen him listed up to almost a fringe top 100 prospect. Does he ever hit enough to be land a full time gig?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a utility man or second division regular but yeah I like him. And I think Dustin Fowler is an everyday guy.

East Coaster: Are there any prospects you are surprised get so much attention or interest by non-industry folks? Or vice versa?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s usually a guy or two in an org with a loaded system that gets more attention than prospects in other systems. Braves and Yankee prospects are showered with online love. Travis Demeritte (who I think is a good prospect) gets talked about much more than someone like Bryan Reynolds (who I think is a better one) because the Giants fans aren’t invested in the farm as much as Braves, Yankees, Padres fans are right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I get it, people love baseball and if the big league club they root for is bad they want something positive to care about.

Eric A Longenhagen: It will be this way forever.

Alex: I need you to talk me into Kyle Muller. I keep reading the fastball is low 90s and it seems like optimistic projections have him with an average curveball and average changeup. Why is that exciting? Why did that warrant the #44 pick and $2.5 million?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know, I feel the same way. But think about what sort of feel he must have for pitching to have thrown as well as he did in Texas with upper-80s stuff. He was TX player of the year. Also, he’s huge but he does have some physical projection left so there might be more in the tank.

Philip: Is JB Bukuaskas a starter for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but not a total slam dunk. I’m less apt to write up someone as a pen arm because of height if the arm works well so it doesn’t bother me that he’s 6′, but there is some effort there. He’s filthy, though.

Larry: Braves’ system seems to lack impact power outside of Maitan, right? Do they end up trading for it, or how do they get impact power for the lineup in their future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna, man. And Dustin Peterson is a big leaguer for me but not “impact”.

Conrad: “(Nick) Allen began swinging lefthanded in the offseason, and his swing shows promise.” Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thinking a SoCal trip is a must this spring.

Adam: Which playoff contender this year is destined to trade a top prospect for a reliever at the deadline?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nationals come to mind right away but I think Koda Glover might fill that void. Miami too, maybe?

Harvey Birdman: Why don’t we see as many college coaches jump to the pros as we do in other sports?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a great question. It’s certainly a different game with different social dynamics between players and coaches. That’s the biggest difference but maybe not the most prominent reason. You might have given me next year’s Hardball Times Annual essay. Thanks, Birdman.

Dan: When do you expect to finish the team-by-team top prospect posts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m just going as fast as I can and they get done when they get done. McDaniel got his done on Opening Day, so I’m trying to do it a day before that. It’ll be faster next year now that I have my own process and infrastructure (tables and tables of nonsense) built as opposed to building it simultaneously as I write, but I do look forward to being done.

Seiya: Could you see the Padres taking DL Hall at 3, and giving out higher bonuses to later picks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure. Preller was at Vandy on Thursday to see Wright (so was Boras, btw) and they really only have one other pick to play with big money…there’s less room for creativity this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I like how much you like Hall because I think he’s a top 10 guy, too.

The Tone: I know the Mets list is coming very soon, but if you wouldn’t mind indulging me – are you confident that Justin Dunn’s future is as a starter? Is it just a matter of getting stretched out for him, or does he have more development to do in terms of command and third pitch than most other draftees his age?

Eric A Longenhagen: I buy it. Arm is fresh, he’s strong and athletic, it’s going to be a viable three pitches.

Steve: Is the current Braves’ system historically good? If not, does it have a chance to achieve that status within the next 2 years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not historically good yet and in two years you’ll probably see some attrition on the pitching side as some guys graduate and some blow out. See: Royals, 2008

Orange President: Is Robles the top prospect next spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on my short list of candidates but if you asked me to pick one right now it’s Rosario.

jon: What have the additions of Eddie Butler and Alec Mills done to the Cubs AAA level starter depth? Are they better than Zastryzny, Ryan Williams and those already in the org?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, yes.

bananastand: Do you think that prospect rankings would be better on aggregate if scouts didn’t include industry consensus in their evaluation? It seems to me that while individual rankings wouldn’t be as good, if scouts didn’t change their expectations due to the industry, aggregate rankings would probably be better

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, but fewer scouts than you assume keep tabs on my work and the work of my peers. Orgs want their scouts to go into the evening with zero assumptions or predispositions and a lot of scouts oblige them. There’s some debate about how primed orgs want their scouts to be.

YouthBerry: How does J.J. Schwarz of Florida (2017 draft) compare to 2016’s college Catchers like Zack Collins and Matt Thaiss (moving off C I know)?

Eric A Longenhagen: More power than Thaiss, more physical projection than Collins, I think Collins has a better chance to hit, better pitch recog and ability to deal with offspeed stuff.

Drew: Do you think Aaron Judge becomes a consistent 3-4 win player?

Eric A Longenhagen: More 2-2.5 for me.

iron wolf: Hi Eric: what kind of future do you see for Willy Adames? Are you as high on him as some other guys? What kind of numbers do you see him possibly posting in his prime? Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like him and think he stays at short for a while, especially considering where batted ball data has taken us and the org for which he plays.

Ken M: Oddest story you’ve heard about a prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: (redacted) and (redacted) would put their (redacted) in the postgame spread, ya know, for giggles.

Jenny: What is your take on Nick Solak? Can he be a sleeper prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bat first second baseman, potential plus hit tool, very little else. Was more of a way to squeeze Rutherford into the budget than anything but a nice little prospect all the same.

Will c: Is touki the best number 14 prospect on any team in baseball? With a +fastball and ++curve, could average command jump him into the overall top 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah it felt weird having him that low and being so attracted to his curveball. Average command puts him in the top 100, if the change comes too then yeah it’s top 50.

Lord above: With all the jose de leon trade talk of the past few months the idea of starting pitchers without breaking balls being undervalued has been discussed. Do you think this is the case? Personally I think the pirates fastball inside change up’s away success of late shows you can use these kinds of pitchers tactically to be quite effective.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ask all the people who think command/changeup guys are undervalued to go to a high school showcase and pick out the command/changeup guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: Those pitchers are only identifiable after years of pro performance.

Eric A Longenhagen: At which point, lots of guys without breaking balls already have a new occupation.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Do you think MLB should allow for draft picks being traded?

Eric A Longenhagen: Once Loria sells the team, yes.

YouthBerry: Thoughts on Jeren kendall’s hit tool? He struck out 122 times in 435 college at-bats (28%), how concerning is that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, you’ve nailed the most difficult thing to nail down about his profile. The bat speed is there, for sure. And he has a good approach. But man, that swing path is kind of odd.

Eric A Longenhagen: If I knew he were going to hit for power, I wouldn’t care. But I’m not sure about that yet, either.

Jose: Thoughts on Fernando Tatis Jr? Could he be a top 100 guy this time next year? What % chance would you give him of sticking at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m that Fernando Tatis hipster who was shoving him up my list in the fall before it was cool. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/

Eric A Longenhagen: And he moves to 3B for me but might be a 60 or 70 glove there.

Adam: It seems like Hunter Greene has a REALLY good fastball and a lot of projection. Is there more to his current repertoire or is his ranking dependent on his athleticism and aptitude?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, I think you’re on it. The slider will flash and got better as last year went along. I saw him in the spring during his junior year, then all during the showcases and his feel for it improved. Wouldn’t surprise me if it was a solid 55 this spring.

Ronnie: If you had a crystal ball that told you three prospects would reproduce the regular season statistical records of Derek Jeter, Robin Yount and Paul Molitor in what order would you rank those prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Yount or Jeter ahead of the others. Hard to pass up Yount hitting the Majors as a teenager and then raking for 20 years with a 70 stache.

John: Hey Eric. Thanks for the great work you do. What are your thoughts on Amir Garrett? Does he start for the Reds this year? Can he be a #2, or is he more like a #4/5 or a good BP arm? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have him written up as a 55 which is a #3/4 and I think he gets there more on durability than dominant stuff.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Are you making a top 100 list this year or are you making it 150? 200?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just a hondo

Rick: Who is one guy you’re way higher on than the consensus prospect ranks? One guy you’re lower on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shed Long

Eric A Longenhagen: Lower on….hmmm…

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on I need to look at someone’s list…

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Fran Martes. I just can’t get my AFL looks at him out of my head. I reserve the right to change my mind when I do the Stros list, though.

David: Do you think Tristan McKenzie will fill out and continue to improve his velocity?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he at least fills out and holds his current velo under a heavier workload.

JGindahouse: Besides for Dom Smith (maybe) is there any other prospect in the Mets system that has 20+ HR potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rosario.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t laugh, he was hitting upper deck bombs during BP at the Futures Game.

Nick: Assuming he has an opportunity to start, how do you profile Austin Voth?

Eric A Longenhagen: 5th starter.

Nick: Do you see Jeimer Candelario as a regular? If so, on the Cubs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and probably not.

Anthony: Is Roman Quinn a top 100 overall guy as a close to the majors average regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would be someone in consideration for the back end of the list if he could stay healthy.

David: Good to see you out at USD last week! Since Wright’s disappointing start speaks for itself and Kendall spent the whole time getting walked and trying to bunt… what’s your read on Will Toffey? Somewhere in the middle of Day 2 of the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: I though Wright was fine (it’s February) and yeah, I didn’t like some of Corbin’s decisions that limited my look at Kendall. I liked Toffey. Good feet during in and out, plus arm, hands are kind of inconsistent. Great approach. Probably not prototypical power for third so yeah, day two to a team that prioritizes approach.

Matt: Any teams list you did, and then a scout went up to you and disagreed about his FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure

John: Which current prospect would you project for the highest career wRC+?

Eric A Longenhagen: That would involve projecting aging curves which I don’t do with enough detail to have an answer for you.

AA: Is it crazy to see well above average regular potential in Desmond Lindsay?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I don’t think it’s crazy. I’d call it optimistic, reasonably so.

Jean: I’d say Brice Turang has the following future ratings: 60 Hit, 60 Run, 50 Power, 55 Defense, 55 Arm. This is obviously very early, though would you agree with these tool grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: You might be heavy on the power (if it’s game) but otherwise I don’t have a quarrel with you.

Bad Bill: Do you see any of the Cardinals’ many second-tier starters making a (positive) impact this year given the Reyes injury? After the obvious Weaver, who’s the best bet to contribute?

Eric A Longenhagen: If Marcos Gonzalez gets healthy he might, Gant probably gives you a half dozen starts. Dan Poncedeleon would be my sleeper.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Nick Williams has stated he was pressing way too hard last year to make the majors, which killed his plate discipline. How likely is it that he’ll fix this issue?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s been an issue for his entire career, save for a few weeks in 2015.

Eric A Longenhagen: I consider it unlikely and hope I’m wrong.

Sox Fan: Is Benintendi the best prospect in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have Moncada at 1 and Benintendi at 2 when my 100 drops in March.

Eric A Longenhagen: #spoilers

Erik: If you believed that Roman Quinn was simply unlucky rather than injury prone, does that bump his FV up to 50 or 55? Based on tools alone he looks like at least an average regular.

Eric A Longenhagen: 50 but he’s injury prone.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: What positional prospect would you love to see convert to a pitcher? Pitcher to hitter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hit to pitch: Anthony Gose

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitch to hit:

Eric A Longenhagen: that;s harder

Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t come up with one I like enough to say in a timely manner. You stumped me.

Nietsniew: What does it mean to have a bat wrap? What does it mean to bar your front arm? Love your stuff btw

Eric A Longenhagen: So, bat wrap is essentially pointing the top of your bat toward the pitcher as you trigger your swing. Gary Sheffield did this a lot. Arm bar is when you load your hands back, waaaay back past your back foot and your lead arm straightens out. Cameron Rupp does it. Neither is a fatal flaw, they can just create extra length back to the ball.

Cyclops : What’re your thoughts on Lourdes Gurriel? Haven’t heard much about him projections-wise other than it’s hard to get a good feel

Eric A Longenhagen: Utility type based on reports I’ve gotten from international sources and based on the deal he got I’d say it’s most of the industry’s opinion as well.

Hopeful Future GM: How do you distinguish different grade pitches? Such as, how do you tell the difference between a 50 and a 60 curveball?

Eric A Longenhagen: You just go to games and then some more and then a bunch more and get a feel for it. One big aspect of my schedule is getting to big league games semi regularly throughout the year to see what the finished product is supposed to look like and maintain that baseline. Working for a Triple-A team for four years in college was a pretty lucky bounce for me as I got daily closeups of that level of talent.

John: You’re about halfway through the prospect review. How hard is it to stay consistent with your rankings over the course of months? It would be extremely hard for me to say that my 55 FV in December is the same as it is in February after seeing 1000 new prospects.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, once you have a prospect’s tools projected out you can kind of look and see what type of value that player would theoretically have in the big leagues. That gives you a number to start at. So…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay let’s take a Shortstop prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: and say the tools project to 60 hit, 55 game power, but he’s barely passing defensively at short, might be a 45 there.

Eric A Longenhagen: You can look at current/former big leaguers who fit that profile and get a feel for what kind of value your prospect is projected to provide.

Eric A Longenhagen: So Asdrubal Cabreara was a player much like the one I described.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was worht 3 WAR last year. That’s a 60. As long as you’re checking to make sure there isn’t a huge difference in K/BB rates and other peripherals, you slap a 60 on the prospect and than dial it back down based on risk. Injury, proximity, makeup, etc. That’s where more subjectivity comes into play.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a rudimentary way of describing the process and is probably overly simple but there’s a glimpse of how the FV grade gets thrown together. Don’t steal it.

Sam: What ever happened to Rookie Davis? Did he even make any of the Reds top prospects lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on there, likely backend guy.

Scott: What’s the best comp for Albies? Is he like Jose Reyes with less pop? Jimmy Rollins?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s just Ozzie Albies.

Anon: What are realistic expectations for Kyle Higashioka?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ryan Lavarnway.

Fred: In Randy Ventura’s run grade, you forget the “1” in front of the “55”.

Eric A Longenhagen: Body has really filled out since he left the Dominican.

Fred: Your characterization of Lucas Sims‘ fastball as “flat, lifeless” doesn’t gel with the Pitch FX data from his time in the AFL, which indicates he had some of the best vertical spin deflection (ie. rising action) of any pitcher in the AFL that year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Spin ? Useful Spin

Steve: Has Orlando Arcia overrated a year ago by sports writers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so, think he might be underrated now by impatient fans and fantasy owners.

Michael: Have you gotten the chance to see Hans Crouse? What do you think of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, several times. Was encouraging his stuff ticked up late last summer, the delivery is unique and tough to confidently say he’s a starter.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Nolan Martinez had amazing spin rate on his FB and Curveball. Could he be a darkhorse to jump way up (if he improves his command even just a bit)?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea what his rates are but I agree it’s a good fastball/curveball combo and he’s a good athlete, stuff just wasn’t as explosive from a velo perspective as others in his class. He’s a good prospect and it’s going to be fun to watch Yankees PD get a hold of him and do what they’ve done with Chance Adams, Jordan Montgomery and a laundry list of others.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay all I need to get to ASU. Thanks for stopping in this week and everyone be well. Go support a local college team if you can.