Author Archive

Scouting the Prospects in the Alex Jackson Deal

In all-prospect trade Monday night, the Atlanta Braves acquired OF Alex Jackson from Seattle in exchange for pitchers Max Povse and Rob Whalen. Jackson, the sixth-overall pick in the 2014 draft, is the headliner here despite poor performance in pro ball because he was one of this decade’s most decorated high-school hitters.

In 2012, Jackson led all California high-school hitters in home runs with 17. He was a sophomore. Later that summer, Jackson went to Area Codes, where he had one of the event’s most impressive batting practices. His swing length was exposed in games during the event, but Jackson made an adjustment and shortened up the next spring and continued to rake. He hit well against elite prep arms in showcases during his entire high-school career. The track record for hitters who have consistent success at those events is very good.

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Top 18 Prospects: Cleveland Indians

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cleveland Indians farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Indians Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Francisco Mejia 21 A+ C 2019 55
2 Brad Zimmer 23 AAA CF 2018 55
3 Triston McKenzie 19 A RHP 2020 55
4 Greg Allen 23 AA OF 2018 50
5 Bobby Bradley 20 A+ 1B 2019 45
6 Will Benson 18 R OF 2021 45
7 Nolan Jones 18 R 3B 2020 45
8 Erik Gonzalez 25 MLB UTIL 2017 45
9 Yu Chang 21 A+ INF 2019 45
10 Brady Aiken 20 A- LHP 2020 45
11 Juan Hillman 19 A- LHP 2020 45
12 Yandy Diaz 25 AAA 3B 2017 45
13 Anthony Santander 22 A+ 1B/OF 2019 40
14 Rob Kaminsky 22 AA LHP 2018 40
15 Gabriel Mejia 21 A- CF 2021 40
16 Shawn Armstrong 26 MLB RHP 2017 40
17 Willi Castro 19 A SS 2020 40
18 Mark Mathias 22 A+ 2B 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 175 Bat/Throw S/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/70 50/55 30/45 50/40 40/50 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .333/.379/.500 as a left-hander in 2016, .359/.390/.542 as right-hander.

Scouting Report
Arguably the best catching prospect in all of baseball, Mejia’s prodigious arm strength and bat-to-ball ability give him the raw physical material to impact the game in a variety of ways. A switch-hitter, Mejia has fantastic bat control from both sides of the plate and tracks pitches well. He has plus bat speed and, except for the occasional rash of overswinging, generates it with little effort. As a right-handed hitter, Mejia hits to all fields. He’s more pull-heavy as a left-handed hitter but is better at creating airborne contact from that side. Mejia’s strikeout rate has fallen as he’s risen up the minor-league ladder. I have a future 70 on the hit tool.

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Top 24 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Minnesota Twins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Twins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Gordon 21 A+ SS 2019 55
2 Alex Kirilloff 19 R OF 2021 50
3 Stephen Gonsalves 22 AA LHP 2017 50
4 Tyler Jay 22 AA LHP 2018 50
5 Adalberto Mejia 23 MLB LHP 2017 45
6 Wander Javier 17 R SS 2022 45
7 Fernando Romero 21 A+ RHP 2018 45
8 Kohl Stewart 22 AA RHP 2019 45
9 Ben Rortvedt 19 R C 2021 45
10 Mitch Garver 25 AAA C 2017 45
11 Daniel Palka 25 AAA OF 2017 40
12 Zack Granite 24 AA CF 2018 40
13 Lewis Thorpe 20 A LHP 2020 40
14 Travis Blankenhorn 20 A 3B 2020 40
15 J.T. Chargois 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Nick Burdi 23 AA RHP 2018 40
17 Jake Reed 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
18 Trevor Hildenberger 25 AA RHP 2017 40
19 Lewin Diaz 20 R 1B 2021 40
20 Lamonte Wade 22 A+ OF 2018 40
21 Felix Jorge 22 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Huascar Ynoa 18 R RHP 2021 40
23 Akil Baddoo 18 R OF 2022 40
24 Lachlan Wells 19 A LHP 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Olympia HS (FL)
Age 21 Height 6’2 Weight 175 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 40/45 20/40 50/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .291/.335/.386 in Florida State League in 2016. Also saved 11 runs at shortstop, per Clay Davenport.

Scouting Report
Gordon was one of this decade’s most heavily scouted high schoolers, leaving evaluators extremely comfortable with his skill set and big-league prospects despite a lack of big tools. Scouts, who were obviously aware of Gordon’s parentage, began seeing a lot of him as a freshman when they were scouting Olympia High School senior outfielder Jesse Winker. Gordon was also a regular at all-star games and showcases throughout his high-school career. After four years, teams saw Gordon as a likely, but unexceptional defensive shortstop who would hit for average and maybe grow into some power as he approached his peak.

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Scouting the Yankees’ Return for Brian McCann

The Yankees acquired two high-octane arms from Houston in exchange for veteran catcher Brian McCann today in right-handed pitchers Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman.

Abreu is the main piece for New York, a somewhat undersized (on paper, anyway) righty with absolutely electric arm speed that he produces with little effort. Abreu’s fastball will sit in the low- to mid-90s, usually 91-96, and touch as high as 98. He has well below-average command of his fastball (and the rest of his repertoire) right now but the ease of Abreu’s delivery allows for considerable projection in this area, though of course it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll develop starter-level command.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Brine Your Bird

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. We’ll likely hold firm the an hour today as I’ve got to get to the west valley for a Fall League game (Stephen Gonsalves throwing again for Surprise).

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: A few things before I dive in, first…

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies list went live today, it’s here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-colorado-rockies

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Second, there are A LOT of hypothetical trade proposals in the queue. Sorry, but I’m not one for that kind of speculation so I’ll be avoiding those. Let’s begin.

12:06
Max: If you had to pick one Arizona Fall League player to take No. 1 overall in a draft, who would it be?

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: If Moncada still counts even though he left with another injury of his, then him. If not I’m picking between Bellinger, Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres.

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Top 24 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Colorado Rockies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Rockies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Brendan Rodgers 20 A SS 2019 60
2 Riley Pint 19 R RHP 2020 55
3 Jeff Hoffman 23 MLB RHP 2016 55
4 German Marquez 21 MLB RHP 2016 55
5 Raimel Tapia 22 MLB CF 2016 50
6 Kyle Freeland 23 AAA LHP 2017 50
7 Pedro Gonzalez 19 R CF 2020 45
8 Miguel Castro 21 MLB RHP 2015 45
9 Tom Murphy 25 MLB C 2015 45
10 Forrest Wall 20 A+ 2B/OF 2019 45
11 Ryan Castellani 20 A+ RHP 2019 45
12 Ben Bowden 22 A LHP 2018 45
13 Yency Almonte 22 AA RHP 2018 45
14 Pete Lambert 19 A RHP 2021 40
15 Ryan McMahon 21 AA 1B 2018 40
 16 Sam Howard 23 AA LHP 2017 45
17 Tyler Nevin 19 A- 3B 2021 40
18 Dom Nunez 21 A+ C 2020 40
19 Robert Tyler 21 A- RHP 2020 40
20 Colton Welker 19 R 1B/3B 2021 40
21 Daniel Montano 17 R CF 2022 40
22 Garrett Hampson 22 A- SS 2019 40
23 Julian Fernandez 20 A- RHP 2020 40
24 Jordan Patterson 24 MLB OF/1B 2016 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL)
Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 55/60 40/55 50/45 40/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded .199 ISO in Low-A.

Scouting Report
Some amateur evaluators thought Rodgers, the top prep talent in the 2015 draft, was the best overall prospect in the class because they liked his chances to stay at shortstop and eventually hit for more power than Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman. While the other two have already made their big-league debuts, Rodgers has hit well as a young regular for two pro seasons while maintaining (and, in 2016, improving) a body some thought would fill out and require a move to third base.

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Scouting Lourdes Gurriel and Three Other Cuban Prospects

The Toronto Blue Jays agreed to a deal with 23-year-old Cuban prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on Friday. The deal was first reported by MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez and the terms of the contract — seven years, $22 million — was first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

The reports I’ve gotten from international scouts regarding Gurriel are solid, if unspectacular. Scouts see the physical talent to play at second, third, or the corner outfield and one source with whom I spoke thought he’d have a chance of playing center field with reps. His arm is plus and he’s an average runner (above-average underway) with passable defensive actions on the infield.

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Top 21 Prospects: Los Angeles Dodgers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Dodgers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Yadier Alvarez 20 A RHP 2019 60
2 Cody Bellinger 21 AA 1B 2017 60
3 Alex Verdugo 20 AA CF 2017 55
4 Jose DeLeon 24 MLB RHP 2016 55
5 Walker Buehler 22 A RHP 2017 50
6 Willie Calhoun 22 AA 2B 2018 50
7 Brock Stewart 25 MLB RHP 2016 45
8 Andrew Toles 24 MLB CF 2016 45
9 Yusniel Diaz 20 A+ CF 2019 45
10 Jordan Sheffield 21 A RHP 2018 45
11 Austin Barnes 26 MLB UTIL 2017 45
12 Gavin Lux 18 R SS 2021 45
13 Keibert Ruiz 18 R C 2020 45
14 Will Smith 21 R C 2019 45
15 Mitch White 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
16 Starling Heredia 17 R OF 2021 40
17 Imani Abdullah 19 A RHP 2021 40
18 D.J. Peters 20 R OF 2020 40
19 Yaisel Sierra 25 AA RHP 2017 40
20 Omar Estevez 18 A 2B 2020 40
21 Dustin May 19 R RHP 2021 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba
Age 21 Height 6’3 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/60 40/50 40/60 40/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 34.6% strikeout and 6.9% walk rate at Low-A.

Scouting Report
The ease with which Yadier Alvarez delivers 100 mph fastballs is as unsettling as it is beautiful. Triple-digit fastballs are becoming more common but they usually involve significant visible effort. Alvarez throws 95-plus and looks like he’s settling down to take a nap. He’ll touch 101 and generally sits 96-99 and 94-97 later in starts. His fastball command is below average, as Alvarez has issues maintaining his delivery’s timing and struggles to get on top of his fastball consistently. But the grace in the delivery and Alvarez’s overall athleticism point toward significant development in this area and there are signs that it’s already begun to come. Alvarez cut his walk rate in half after moving from the Arizona League to the Midwest League while his strikeout rate held firm. Scouts who saw him late in the year complimented his ability to throw strikes, something he wasn’t doing consistently as late as June.

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Eric Longenhagen Propspects Chat 205

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from AZ, let’s chat.

12:02
Seth: Is the Dodgers list coming this week?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Submitted to editing at 2:30am so should be today or tomorrow.

12:03
Twins Fan: Thoughts on Fernando Romero?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good stuff, up to 100, relief delivery.

12:03
Jeremy: Is Brett Phillips still a top 100 prospect?

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Prospect Reports: San Diego Padres

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Padres Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Anderson Espinoza 18 A RHP 2019 60
2 Manny Margot 22 MLB CF 2017 55
3 Cal Quantrill 21 A RHP 2018 55
4 Hunter Renfroe 24 MLB OF 2016 50
5 Adrian Morejon 18 R LHP 2020 50
6 Fernando Tatis, Jr. 17 A- 3B 2021 50
7 Jacob Nix 20 A RHP 2019 50
8 Chris Paddack 20 A RHP 2020 45
9 Jeisson Rosario 17 R OF 2021 45
10 Logan Allen 19 A LHP 2020 45
11 Carlos Asuaje 24 MLB 2B 2017 45
12 Luis Urias 19 A+ 2B 2018 45
13 Gabriel Arias 16 R SS 2021 45
14 Jorge Ona 19 R OF 2019 45
15 Mason Thompson 18 R RHP 2021 45
16 Reggie Lawson 19 R RHP 2021 45
17 Luis Almanzar 17 R SS 2021 45
18 Eric Lauer 21 A LHP 2019 45
19 Hudson Potts 18 A- 3B 2020 45
20 Jose Rondon 22 MLB SS 2017 45
21 Michael Gettys 21 A+ CF 2019 40
22 Phil Maton 23 AAA RHP 2017 40
23 Michel Miliano 16 R RHP 2022 40
24 Enyel De Los Santos 20 A+ RHP 2020 40
25 Dinelson Lamet 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Josh Naylor 19 A+ 1B 2020 40
27 Buddy Reed 21 R CF 2019 40
28 Nick Torres 23 AAA OF 2018 40
29 Austin Allen 22 A C 2019 40
30 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40
31 Hansel Rodriguez 19 A- RHP 2020 40
32 Yimmi Brasoban 22 AA RHP 2018 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela
Age 19 Height 6’0 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/70 50/70 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded just 5.6% walk rate after trade to San Diego.

Scouting Report
Espinoza got a $1.8 million bonus in 2014 despite his diminutive stature because, despite a lack of height, his arm worked incredibly well and he already showed terrific feel for spin. He was unhittable in the GCL when he debuted stateside, allowing just three earned runs in 40 innings there. He wasn’t as dominant in 2016 and reports of his stuff and performance were a little inconsistent, after he was traded to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz, but this was an 18-year-old dealing with severance from the organization that changed his life and his peripherals were good despite inflated ERAs. By the time instructional league arrived, things had come together and Espinoza was arguably the best pitching prospect throwing during instructs in either Arizona or Florida. He was 95-97 with movement in an abbreviated final instructional-league outing and flashed a plus-plus curveball.

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