Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Ten Days to Sanctity

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Arizona.

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat, go.

Nientsniew: What happened to Giolito’s mechanics that made him struggle?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure Giolito has said publicly that they tried to make him more upright, but I don’t know that that’s why he struggled. It just seems illogical, on the surface, to mess with one of the better pitching prospects in baseball like that.

AA: Which Cody Reed do you feel will have the better career? I feel Cincinnati’s Reed has been a bit disappointing but still think he’s got more upside than Cody Reed Arizona.

Eric A Longenhagen: CIN’s Cody Reed I think will be a fine mid-rotation starter. I do not ARI’s Cody Reed to be a prospect.

J-Dog: Will Sixto be on the top 100 when it’s released in September?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hilarious, J-Dog.

Eric A Longenhagen: No. I have Sixto ranked aggressively but not top 100.

Doolitte’s Beard: Your thoughts on A’s 3B, Matt Chapman? Kid looked like an absolute monster last spring training.

Eric A Longenhagen: Love the glove, there’s power there, scouts worry he won’t make enough contact.

Dusty Roark: Hi Mr. Longenhagen – long-time reader, first time question asker.. your ratings on Anderson Espinoza’s secondary stuff is better than the consensus, but you might have been the only one to see/hear about his stuff in instructs, making your reports more recent, and maybe more credible? Haven’t read any other outlet talking about his instructs performance.. If he stays healthy this year, do you think we will see Little Pedro in the top 5 of prospect lists at this time next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: You, as the reader, get to decide who you read and why. If he’s healthy I think he’ll probably be graded out right around where he is now. For me anyway.

Eric A Longenhagen: And let’s please never comp anyone to Pedro Martinez ever again, okay?

Ben: What is the knock on Rowdy Tellez, great slash line and played full year at 21 at AA, reports all seem good from the jays.

Eric A Longenhagen: First, I’d take what a team says about their own prospects with a grain of salt.

Eric A Longenhagen: Second, a lot of people saw Rpwdy really struggle with quality stuff in the 2015 AFL and do some things to hit for power (like really cheat on fastballs) that they didn’t think was sustainable in the big leagues.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve spoken with scouts who saw him last year and they say things are better, but they’re still apprehensive.

NatsFan: Would Matt Skole be a better left-handed bench option than Clint Robinson for the Nats to start the season? Or is it worth leaving him in AAA for more conditioning? Does he have a higher floor than bench bat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Might be time to give him a shot but you probably lose some defensive versatility. Skole is 1B-only for me and I don’t think he’s seen game action in the OF, but I think there’s more power there than what Robinson can give you.

Fred: What sort of corner OFer do you expect Jake Bauers to be? Above average? Average? Below-average? Matt Kemp?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fringe regular at 1B for me, not even remotely close to Matt Kemp who hits right handed, was once passable in CF and has 70 raw power.

Jimmy: Which farm system is the worst: Diamondbacks, Angels, or Marlins?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m working on the Marlins now and I’m pretty sure it’s them.

Eric A Longenhagen: ?

Fred: Casey Gillaspie seems to still have his doubters despite being a very productive offensive player in the upper minors last year. What gives? Do you think he’ll be at least an average hitter for a first baseman?

greg: The tools for Glasnow and Sal Romano look quite similar

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, software issues. Seems okay now.

Eric A Longenhagen: On Gillaspie:

Eric A Longenhagen: I lied, it isn’t okay

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyway, I haven’t dived into Gillaspie yet to see if he’s made substantive changes but I myself am a doubter.

Eric A Longenhagen: Very little hand separation, hard to see him hitting for the power needed at 1B

Eric A Longenhagen: Romano is projected in the bullpen, Glasnow in a rotation. Glasnow would probably sit 97+ in the bullpen, big difference. Romano

Eric A Longenhagen: Romano’s delivery is no bueno.

Justino: What is James Farris’s ceiling? I am a believer in Theo and Co., but have some concerns about the Cubs giving up any kind of pitching prospects, as that seems to be the gaping hole of the Cubs’ organization.

Eric A Longenhagen: More of an org arm for me based on what I saw in the AFL.

Eric A Longenhagen: Might be a relief piece.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cubs have been arm-heavy in recent drafts, some of those guys will turn into something. And de la Cruz and Albertos already are.

Adam: Jacob Nix is consistently ranked 6 or 7 on most Padres prospect lists. Could you expand on whether he is someone to be excited about or just a solid big league contributor?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote a full report on the Padres list, but I think a “solid big league contributor” is something to get excited about.

Gest: Is Luis Robert more of an outfielder or first baseman do you think?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Body has definitely gotten bigger over the last year but I still have him projected in the outfield.

Fred: It seems to me that in order to predict Jose De Leon to be a #3/#4 starter, you’d have to think there’s something about his game that will make him lose more in transition to the majors than most pitching prospects that have his kind of success in the high minors. What’s that something?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball plane + lack of impact breaking ball.

David: True or False: Franmil Reyes ought to be the starting first baseman in San Antonio for the entirety of 2017.

Eric A Longenhagen: False.

Alex : What’s the deal with Tristian McKenzie? Scouts (yourself included) tend to like his delivery, his fastball velocity has been increasing (since he signed) and he has an above average curveball. In addition, his K and BB rates have been stellar at every level he’s pitched at. Why doesn’t he get more love?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be somewhere in the middle of my top 100, which I consider love?

Patty: I have read numerous things about Otani- Anything from top 10 prospect with risk, to 2nd best pitcher in the world. What is your take? Where would he be in your list?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s #2 behind Moncada overall. Terribly sad he isn’t pitching here tomorrow.

Eric A Longenhagen: Are you folks having chat issues too?

Drew: Has a RHP from high school never gone #1 because there is some stigma attached to it? or has there just always been someone better in every draft. Looking through pitchers there have been plenty of great high school RHPs like Syndergaard.

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of it has to do with an understandable aversion to risk. If you miss on 1-1, you might lose your job. So taking a 17 year old instead of a college arm with a track record of health, etc, etc, is just objectively more terrifying.

Fred: Rank these Braves lefties in order of preference: Allard, Fried, Newcomb, Gohara, Minter

Eric A Longenhagen: Tentatively, the way you have them.

Jonathan: Is Jesse Winker going to develop enough power to be fantasy relevant. ZIPS put him at 13 homers, but even that seems high after his 3 home run campaign last season in AAA. Can he ever become a 20 home run threat?

Eric A Longenhagen: I question the power too and I don’t think you’ll ever see 20+ homers but I think the bat-to-ball is enough to make him an average regular. Might no be a sexy fantasy option, though.

JSDee: Padres better off signing Cahill, Richard, et al. than letting Kelly, Lamet, and Lockett pitch? I think not.

Eric A Longenhagen: MLB clubs need 9-12 starting pitchers every year.

FAT TIRE: Are JP Crawford’s best tools on the field or in the batters box/on base paths?

Eric A Longenhagen: Glove and approach are his two most impressive attributes, in my opinion.

anonymous: What is the most common reason top prospects fail to make an impact at the Major League level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Playing Major League Baseball is really hard.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone, sorry for the short chat but the software is not cooperating. Hit me up on Twitter with questions if you want and I’ll get to as many of them as I can.

Eric A Longenhagen: End