Author Archive
Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/15
| 1:31 |
: Morning. Link:
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| 1:31 |
: And chat…
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| 1:31 |
: Small sample size for sure. But is there anything I can take from Acuna’s hot start in Double A?
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| 1:32 |
: No, especially not since last week’s chat was made up of an overwhelming number of back seat Player Dev coordinators criticizing his promotion.
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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/9
| 12:02 |
: Morning from an anomalously cool Tempe.
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| 12:02 |
: Today’s chat will be held tight to an hour as I’ve got some games to hit today.
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| 12:02 |
: Begin!
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| 12:03 |
: Is Jake Gatewood’s power here to stay now? 2015-16 were rough but seems to have tapped into that frame so far this season
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| 12:03 |
: The power hes always been there and totally undermined by swing and miss issues.
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| 12:04 |
: He’s strijing out a lot this year, walk rate has gone from 3% to 14% which is too big of an uptick to be entirely real.
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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/2
| 1:02 |
: Morning from Tempe.
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| 1:03 |
: Here are this morning’s daily notes: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-52/
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| 1:03 |
: Let’s get right to it.
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| 1:03 |
: Albies has 80 games at Triple A with a wRC+ of 85 and OBP below .300. When are we allowed to start being concerned?
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| 1:04 |
: He’s the age of a college sophomore and was hitting .290 before the weekend started. He’s fine.
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| 1:04 |
: Do you have any thoughts on Joey Lucchesi? Could he be a fast riser considering his age?
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Top 24 Prospects: Oakland Athletics
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Oakland Athletics farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen
The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA, TEX)
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin Barreto | 21 | AAA | SS | 2017 | 55 |
| 2 | A.J. Puk | 21 | A+ | LHP | 2019 | 55 |
| 3 | Jharel Cotton | 25 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 55 |
| 4 | Matt Chapman | 23 | AAA | 3B | 2017 | 50 |
| 5 | Frankie Montas | 24 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 50 |
| 6 | Daulton Jefferies | 21 | A+ | RHP | 2019 | 45 |
| 7 | Daniel Gossett | 24 | AAA | RHP | 2017 | 45 |
| 8 | Heath Fillmyer | 22 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 45 |
| 9 | Grant Holmes | 21 | AA | RHP | 2019 | 45 |
| 10 | Chad Pinder | 25 | MLB | UTIL | 2017 | 45 |
| 11 | Logan Shore | 22 | A+ | RHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 12 | Dakota Chalmers | 20 | A | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 13 | Norge Ruiz | 23 | R | RHP | 2018 | 40 |
| 14 | Yerdel Vargas | 17 | R | SS | 2021 | 40 |
| 15 | Jaycob Brugman | 25 | AAA | OF | 201 | 40 |
| 16 | Yairo Munoz | 22 | AA | 3B | 2018 | 40 |
| 17 | Richie Martin | 22 | AA | SS | 2020 | 40 |
| 18 | Bruce Maxwell | 26 | MLB | C | 2017 | 40 |
| 19 | Matt Olson | 23 | MLB | 1B/OF | 2017 | 40 |
| 20 | Sean Murphy | 22 | R | C | 2019 | 40 |
| 21 | Lazaro Armenteros | 17 | R | LF | 2021 | 40 |
| 22 | Max Schrock | 22 | AA | 2B | 2019 | 40 |
| 23 | Sylar Szynski | 19 | R | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
| 24 | Bobby Wahl | 25 | AAA | RHP | 2017 | 40 |
55 FV Prospects
| Age | 21 | Height | 5’10 | Weight | 190 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50/60 | 55/55 | 40/45 | 60/60 | 40/45 | 60/60 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .295 career batting average.
Scouting Report
Barreto was signed by Toronto for $1.45 million back in 2012 and then traded to Oakland — along with Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie, and Sean Nolin — in exchange for Josh Donaldson. Bay Area sports talk radio still discusses the deal with frequency and bile, and largely considers Barreto the last hope for salvaging it, though Graveman and his sinker appear to be breaking out this year.
Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, April Finale
| 12:01 |
: Is this thing on?
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| 12:01 |
: Indeed.
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| 12:01 |
: Now we chat.
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| 12:01 |
: WHAT TO DO WITH GARRETT. Please advise. Yours, in a panic.
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| 12:02 |
: Amir? He’s fine. That HR rate isn’t going to be that high forever.
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Top 22 Prospects: Texas Rangers
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Texas Rangers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen
The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA)
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leodys Taveras | 18 | A | CF | 2020 | 55 |
| 2 | Yohander Mendez | 22 | MLB | LHP | 2017 | 55 |
| 3 | Ariel Jurado | 21 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 50 |
| 4 | Cole Ragans | 19 | R | LHP | 2020 | 50 |
| 5 | Ronald Guzman | 22 | AAA | 1B | 2018 | 45 |
| 6 | Jose Trevino | 24 | AA | C | 2018 | 45 |
| 7 | Joe Palumbo | 22 | A+ | LHP | 2020 | 45 |
| 8 | Brett Martin | 21 | A+ | LHP | 2020 | 45 |
| 9 | Andy Ibanez | 24 | AA | 2B | 2018 | 45 |
| 10 | Anderson Tejeda | 18 | A | SS | 2021 | 45 |
| 11 | Alex Speas | 19 | R | RHP | 2021 | 45 |
| 12 | Josh Morgan | 21 | R | INF | 2020 | 40 |
| 13 | Connor Sadzeck | 25 | AA | RHP | 2017 | 40 |
| 14 | Michael DeLeon | 20 | AA | SS | 2019 | 40 |
| 15 | Miguel Aparicio | 18 | R | CF | 2020 | 40 |
| 16 | Eric Jenkins | 20 | A+ | CF | 2021 | 40 |
| 17 | Mike Matuella | 22 | A- | RHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 18 | Jose Leclerc | 23 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 40 |
| 19 | Drew Robinson | 24 | MLB | INF | 2017 | 40 |
| 20 | Yanio Perez | 21 | A | OF | 2019 | 40 |
| 21 | Kole Enright | 19 | R | INF | 2021 | 40 |
| 22 | Jairo Beras | 22 | A+ | OF | 2020 | 40 |
55 FV Prospects
| Age | 18 | Height | 6’1 | Weight | 170 | Bat/Throw | S/R |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/60 | 40/50 | 20/45 | 60/60 | 45/60 | 60/60 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .275 career average.
Scouting Report
Taveras signed for $2.1 million during the 2015 July 2 period and debuted in the DSL last year but, even in a brief time there, was clearly too advanced for that level. After 11 games in the DSL he came to Arizona for rookie ball. Scouts flocked to Arizona mid-summer to get a look at Taveras ahead of the trade deadline and he was a frequently discussed name in July. He has a very mature feel to hit, especially from the left side of the plate, with low-effort plus bat speed, barrel control, and a willingness to take what pitchers give him if a situation dictates it necessary for him to make contact. He also tracks pitches well, and scouts have a future 60 or better on the bat.
Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Extended Spring Edition
| 1:00 |
: Good morning from lovely Tempe.
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| 1:01 |
: The Mariners list went up today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-16-prospects-seattle-mariners/
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| 1:01 |
: Houston’s went up yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-houston-astros/
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| 1:01 |
: I’ll be wrapping up Texas and Oakland tomorrow and Thursday so they should be up either late this week or Monday next.
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| 1:02 |
: Also, this just went up: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/tuesday-cup-of-coffee-411/
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| 1:03 |
: OKay, we chat.
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Top 16 Prospects: Seattle Mariners
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Seattle Mariners farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen
The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (HOU, LAA)
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Lewis | 21 | A- | OF | 2019 | 55 |
| 2 | Tyler O’Neill | 21 | AAA | OF | 2017 | 50 |
| 3 | Nick Neidert | 20 | A+ | RHP | 2019 | 45 |
| 4 | Mitch Haniger | 26 | MLB | OF | 2016 | 45 |
| 5 | Andrew Moore | 22 | AA | RHP | 2017 | 45 |
| 6 | Dan Altavilla | 24 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 45 |
| 7 | Dan Vogelbach | 24 | MLB | 1B | 2017 | 45 |
| 8 | Ben Gamel | 24 | MLB | OF | 2017 | 40 |
| 9 | Guillermo Heredia | 26 | MLB | OF | 2017 | 40 |
| 10 | Max Povse | 23 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 40 |
| 11 | Chris Torres | 19 | R | SS | 2020 | 40 |
| 12 | Brayan Hernandez | 19 | R | CF | 2020 | 40 |
| 13 | Thyago Vieira | 24 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 40 |
| 14 | Bryson Brigman | 21 | A | 2B | 2019 | 40 |
| 15 | Joe Rizzo | 19 | R | 3B | 2020 | 40 |
| 16 | Braden Bishop | 23 | A+ | CF | 2019 | 40 |
55 FV Prospects
| Age | 21 | Height | 6’4 | Weight | 205 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/45 | 60/70 | 40/60 | 45/40 | 45/55 | 60/60 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs as junior at Mercer.
Scouting Report
Lewis crashed the national party on the Cape in 2015, distinguishing himself as the most talented prospect and youngest regular on an Orleans roster teeming with talent. (Half of the Firebirds roster were honest-to-god prospects.) His junior year at Mercer included 20 home runs, a Golden Spikes award, and questions about the quality of pitching he faced in the Southern Conference.
Top 21 Prospects: Houston Astros
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Houston Astros farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen
The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (LAA)
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Martes | 21 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 60 |
| 2 | Kyle Tucker | 20 | A+ | OF | 2019 | 55 |
| 3 | Franklin Perez | 19 | A | RHP | 2020 | 50 |
| 4 | Forrest Whitley | 19 | R | RHP | 2019 | 50 |
| 5 | Ramon Laureano | 22 | AA | OF | 2017 | 50 |
| 6 | David Paulino | 23 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 50 |
| 7 | Derek Fisher | 23 | AAA | OF | 2017 | 45 |
| 8 | Teoscar Hernandez | 24 | MLB | OF | 2017 | 45 |
| 9 | Gilberto Celestino | 18 | R | OF | 2020 | 45 |
| 10 | Daz Cameron | 20 | A | OF | 2020 | 45 |
| 11 | Miguelangel Sierra | 19 | A- | SS | 2020 | 45 |
| 12 | Cionel Perez | 20 | R | LHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 13 | Garrett Stubbs | 23 | AA | C | 2018 | 40 |
| 14 | Jandel Gustave | 24 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 40 |
| 15 | JD Davis | 23 | AA | 3B | 2017 | 40 |
| 16 | Ronnie Dawson | 21 | A- | OF | 2020 | 40 |
| 17 | Framber Valdez | 23 | A+ | LHP | 2017 | 40 |
| 18 | Hector Perez | 20 | A | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 19 | Freud Nova | 17 | R | SS | 2021 | 40 |
| 20 | Jake Rogers | 21 | A | C | 2019 | 40 |
| 21 | Lupe Chavez | 19 | R | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
60 FV Prospects
| Age | 21 | Height | 6’0 | Weight | 170 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60/60 | 60/70 | 45/55 | 40/55 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 25% and 9%, respectively, at Double-A.
Scouting Report
The story of Martes’s acquisition is well told. The effects of the deal are obviously still resonating atop Houston’s prospect list, but perhaps more significant is the way that deal changed the way complex-level ball is scouted. Since Martes was unearthed in the GCL, more and more scouts are being assigned to rookie ball in Florida and Arizona. Some clubs have scout(s) here every year, others tailor their coverage based on where they are on the competitive spectrum, with rebuilding clubs more likely to have scouts here than ones who, if they make a trade, are hunting big leaguers instead of teenage lottery tickets. So while Martes has a chance to make a significant impact on an Astros club poised to compete for their division and, maybe, a World Series, the ripples through the industry created by his acquisition are arguably more significant. Okay, on to Martes as a prospect…