Summer Top-100 Prospects
Below is an updated summer top-100 prospect list. Above are links to the top-10 lists for teams in each of the six divisions. Those include notes on why some of these prospects have moved up or down on their respective org list. For detailed scouting information on individual players, check out the player’s profile page, which may include tool grades and/or links to Daily Prospect Notes posts in which they’ve appeared this season. For detailed info on players drafted or signed this year, check out our sortable boards. The preseason top-100 list is available here.
The Top 100
1. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
2. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
3. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
4. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox
5. Ronald Acuna, CF, Atlanta Braves
6. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
8. Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals
9. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
10. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
11. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
12. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves
13. Lewis Brinson, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
16. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
17. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
19. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros
20. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
21. Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlants Braves
22. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
23. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
24. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
25. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
26. Fernando Tatis, Jr., SS/3B, San Diego Padres
27. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
28. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
29. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Tampa Bay Rays
30. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres
31. Royce Lewis, CF, Minnesota Twins
32. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
33. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
34. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
35. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
36. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
37. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox
38. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox
39. Jay Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
40. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
41. Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners
42. Luiz Gohara, LHP, Atlanta Braves
43. Michel Baez, RHP, San Diego
44. Bo Bichette, INF, Toronto Blue Jays
45. Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres
46. Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies
47. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
48. Leody Taveras, CF, Texas Rangers
49. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
50. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
51. Franklin Barreto, SS/CF, Oakland Athletics
52. Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
53. Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets
54. Willie Calhoun, DH, Texas Rangers
55. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
56. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota Twins
57. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
58. Jesus Sanchez, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
59. Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
60. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals
61. Adrian Morejon, LHP, San Diego Padres
62. Franklin Perez, RHP, Houston Astros
63. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
64. Chance Adams, RHP, New York Yankees
65. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves
66. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
67. Kevin Maitan, 3B, Atlanta Braves
68. Scott Kingery, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
69. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
70. Taylor Trammell, OF, Cincinnati Reds
71. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
72. Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves
73. Isan Diaz, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
74. Joey Wentz, LHP, Atlanta Braves
75. Andres Gimenez, SS, New York Mets
76. Delvin Perez, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
77. Estevan Florial, OF, New York Yankees
78. Yordan Alvarez, 1B, Houston Astros
79. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
80. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
81. David Peterson, LHP, New York Mets
82. Jordon Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
83. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
84. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
85. Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
86. James Kaprielian, RHP, Oakland Athletics
87. Carter Kieboom, SS/3B, Washington Nationals
88. Beau Burrows, RHP, Detroit Tigers
89. Cole Tucker, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
90. Adonis Medina, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
91. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
92. Adam Haseley, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
93. Jahmai Jones, CF, Los Angeles Angels
94. Dustin Fowler, CF, Oakland Athletics
95. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers
96. Ronald Guzman, 1B, Texas Rangers
97. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
98. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
99. Blake Rutherford, OF, Chicago White Sox
100. Cristian Pache, CF, Atlanta Braves
Others Considered
Pitchers
Nick Neidert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Jose DeLeon, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Anthony Banda, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Jacob Nix, RHP, San Diego Padres
Cole Ragans, LHP, Texas Rangers
Logan Allen, LHP, San Diego Padres
Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees
Dakota Hudson, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Catchers
Daniel Flores, C, Boston Red Sox
Infielders
Ryan McMahon, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Jorge Mateo, SS/CF, Oakland Athletics
Michael Chavis, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Christian Arroyo, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Luis Urias, 2B, San Diego Padres
Jake Bauers, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Shed Long, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
Ryan Mountcastle, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Outfield
Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Brandon Marsh, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins
Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
Magneuris Sierra, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Bryan Reynolds, OF, San Francisco Giants
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Awesome list, thanks!
Quick correction: you still have Rutherford listed as a Yankee.
Noted and fixed. Thanks!
Also, Fernando Tatis, Jr. hyperlinks to his dad.
Aren’t we all?
How good would a guy like Willie Calhoun (no defensive or running value) have to hit to be considered a top-5 prospects?
Probably Kris Bryant-level. There are enough prospects putting up .900 OPS at AA/AAA who actually have defensive value.
Just to give you a sense of the best players who offered no defensive value, here are the guys with the “most negative” defensive value since 2000 (since you have to absolutely rake if you’re bad in the field or DHing for long periods of time).
Adam Dunn
David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Paul Konerko
Prince Fielder
Jermaine Dye
Raul Ibanez
Bobby Abreu
Hideki Matsui
Miguel Cabrera
Jason Giambi
Carlos Delgado
Matt Kemp
Billy Butler
Jim Thome
Edwin Encarnacion
Aubrey Huff
Pat Burrell
Gary Sheffield
I actually think that the chances Calhoun winds up displacing a guy out of the top 20 is surprisingly good, but when a guy is more like Billy Butler at the plate instead of Prince Fielder it’s really hard to pile up value.
Awesome, your list has inspired me to dig a little deeper and look up these guys top prospect rankings.
Adam Dunn – Baseball America #33 after the 2000 season
David Ortiz – Baseball America #84 after the 1997 season
Manny Ramirez – Baseball America #7 after the 1993 season
Paul Konerko – Baseball America #2 after the 1997 season
Prince Fielder – Baseball America #11 after the 2005 season
Jermaine Dye – Baseball America #30 after the 1995 season
Raul Ibanez – Organizational rank #7 after 1998 season
Bobby Abreu – Baseball America #38 after the 1996 season, was ranked #29 a year prior
Hideki Matsui – Baseball America #8 after the 2002 season, was 29 coming from Japan.
Miguel Cabrera – Baseball America #12 after the 2002 season
Jason Giambi – Did not even appear on BA organizational prospect lists.
Carlos Delgado – Baseball America #5 after the 1993 season, was ranked #4 a year prior
Matt Kemp – Baseball America #96 after the 2005 season
Billy Butler – Baseball America #25 after the 2006 season.
Jim Thome – Baseball America #51 after the 1991 season
Edwin Encarnacion – Baseball America #56 after the 2004 season
Aubrey Huff – Baseball America #43 after the 2000 season
Pat Burrell – Baseball America #2 after the 1999 season
Gary Sheffield – Graduated to the majors before BA came out with prospect lists
I think that some of those guys wound up being really bad in the field, but they weren’t expected to be bad. Encarnacion played 3B (a sort of premium position), Jermaine Dye and Bobby Abreu were in right field.
Looking back on it, some of these guys played positions that make no sense in retrospect. For some odd reason, Billy Butler played left and right field in the minors. Konerko played 3rd base. Gary Sheffield came up as a shortstop, although making intentional errors probably wasn’t something scouts were expecting.
Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera were hyped since they were amateurs, considered elite bats and a lot of people thought they could fake 1st and 3rd for a while. They were seen kind of like Devers is, an incredible bat who could fake it in the field before moving off of a position.
Calhoun is the first guy in a long time who nobody thinks is going to stick in the field. There’s always some hope he’ll fake 2nd or left field but without first base as a fallback he’s the only top-notch “bat-only” prospect I can think of.
Miggy came up at SS. Not to the MLB but spent time their in the minors
Beltre can play the field for the forseeable future. Gallo can too. Play Calhoun at DH. Where is the issue?
David Ortiz is the only player I could think of OTOH – he played all of one (partial) season at 1B, and then was almost purely a DH starting at age 24.
His highest rating was #84 by BA before 1998, coming off a .322/.379/.585 season at AA at the age of 21.
Butler played 3b for High Desert in 2005.
Nice list. Those guys are mostly real-world studs regardless of how WAR paints them. The few that aren’t actual stars had some great years without exception.
IIRC, Konerko, Giambi, Thome, Encarnacion, Huff, and Burrell were 3B’s when they came up. Abreu & Kemp CFers. Miggy and Sheffield shortstops. Dye & Matsui were viewed as good defensive RFers. Not exactly “bat only” guys. At least, not at that stage of their careers. Seems inappropriate to comp them to somebody like Calhoun who at 22 already can’t play a position.
Konerko was a catcher
Rutherford should be listed as CWS, not NYY
31 Royce Lewis. Are you projecting him to move to CF, have they moved him to CF or is that a typo?
Great work, btw.
Eric sees him in CF.
Which is simply premature. If he plays at SS then list him there. That’s what he is
Love it or hate it, every time Eric sees a guy who doesn’t have “infield actions” but plus speed he pegs him for center field. People do the same with other minors shortstops too.
Love the list, Eric. I’m kind of surprised not to see Derek Fisher even in the “considered” category. Seems like he should be at least a better version of Tyler O’Neil. What am I missing here?
I am also curious about this. My guess is that Eric is dinging him because he (and others) have said his speed plays down. But I’m not sure what more you could want from him right now–he’s clearly the left fielder of the present and future for the Astros.
On future LF, not sure Fisher is clearly it. Tucker likely makes majors next year with Springer and Reddick for 3 more years. Not sure how that will workout, but Astros seem to love Fisher. Granted, Astros are still waiting on having their first DH that can hit.
Derek Fisher was a piece in the Ken Giles trade. Then Klentak/MacPhail decided they would rather have Mark Appel so Fisher was dropped and the Phillies added a standout GCL 16 yr old SS Jonathan Arauz to the deal.
Excellent list, thanks! How far off was Jose Siri from consideration?
Open page, Ctrl+F, “Royals”, “0 results found”.
It’s going to be a long rebuild
But…you’ve got all those expiring contracts you’ll get comp picks for. At least that’s something right?
You’ve gotten some amazing World Series moments recently. Enjoy the memories and don’t fret about a rebuild. You never know when a random guy in the minors puts it all together and jumpstarts a rebuild.
Excellent list. Honestly probably your best work yet has been this summer list updates. Thank you
So the guy currently pitching in MLB averaging a strikeout per inning, with an ERA in the 3’s and a WHIP under 1.20 can’t crack the top 100? (Luis Castillo) Yeah, at some point production matters..
Might have something to do with him not being a prospect anymore, crazy I know!
Actually guys, he is listed in the “Just Missed” area.
I see being a dipshit is more of a refined skill than your reading abilities
He passed the rookie threshold. Not a prospect anymore.
Notice that Cody Bellinger is also not listed.
Mike Trout is also not listed. Heresy!
When you give a snarky jackass reply, make sure to read the whole list. Even the “just missed”
He shouldn’t be listed because he’s not a prospect anymore. It’s pretty standard definition that once you’ve passed rookie eligibility, you are not a prospect anymore. Otherwise, where is Cody Bellinger? Where is Jeff Hoffman?
Yeah. He’s way underranked, I feel at least
Thus, the presentation of the MLB is ready to strike the towers, from time to time of 3 to the beach below 1.20 broke the Top 100. (Luis Castillo) that, at one point, the production of animals .. ..
Elite SP fastball velocity, great movement on his sinker, plus change-up, average to above average slider, and great results in the majors at 24 years old. How he isn’t in the top-100 is ludicrous.
Castillo has benefited from a fortunate BABIP and strand rate, his FIP is over 4, and his strikeout rate is substantially higher this season than it had been previously. People are going to want to see a larger sample of success before they completely buy in.
I’ve watched every start. He got abnormally squeezed one game, and I would like to see his exit velocity allowed vs other guys. He has gotten “bled to death” on the hits he has allowed. Straight power stuff. I’d put him close to top 40 starters in MLB w potential to comps I wouldn’t dare speak of.
To be fair, he plays half his games in a tough park (Cincy) and FIP isn’t park-adjusted. His FIP- is #69th (when you get down to 60+ innings) and his SIERA is #60. Based on that and the “stuff” he seems like he’s along the same lines as a guy like Brandon Woodruff (#55) or Jack Flaherty (#57, although Flaherty’s “stuff” isn’t anywhere near as flashy).
I would say he belongs in the top 20. Not sure how he was missed. I would take the over on him providing more career war than the average player in the top 20.
Certainly positive for padres fans
At what point does Moncada’s astronomical K rate knock him out of the #1 spot? He’s never been below 28 percent in the high minors or MLB.
Man, I know the tools are loud but no one can tell me why they expect him to get the K’s down and start whacking homers. #1 prospects should not need major swing overhauls…
Yes, my point exactly. He’s an excellent prospect, but the #1 prospect should not have such a major question mark.
Says you. The guy who’s here to make that call decided the exact opposite.
“The guy who’s here to make that call decided the exact opposite.”
Are you saying that the guy who’s here to make the call decided that the #1 prospect should have such a major question mark?
Good strike zone judgement and freakish athleticism, most likely.
I don’t want to appear too negative and I appreciate the list very much but it is apparent that a majority of talent evaluators value “tools” over performance. Byron Buxton is a good example. He never hit above Low-A but was given a free Get Out of Jail card at every level. I believe, at this moment, the majority of baseball people and fans would rank Devers well above Moncada.
I’m blown away that anyone could realistically put Moncada ahead of Devers or Acuna right now. I know guys with that power-speed combo don’t drop out of the sky but it’s hard to make a living as a power-speed guy with swing problems.
I mean, they are all really good. The difference is so little in rank.
I think it’s pretty easy but if Moncada does put it together, we’re talking about one of the three to five best players in the game. I’m not sure Devers’ has that type of ceiling (Acuna might?).
Obviously you don’t have to agree, but the rationale is fairly easy to understand imo.
I think that Moncada, Devers, Acuna, Guerrero, and Alex Reyes have the highest ceilings among prospects (if you want to argue for Rosario, Torres, Robles, Mejia, Jimenez, or Tucker I won’t argue).
The question is how they get there. Is Devers more likely to hit like Miguel Cabrera or is Moncada more likely to actually make contact enough and get more loft on his swing to be a major power threat? This sounds like a crazy question because who hits like Cabrera (nobody!) but it’s hard to point to any reason why Moncada’s outcome is any more likely.
Also, it’s weird to say that a bat-first prospect at 3rd base is “safer” than a guy with Moncada’s likely home on the defensive spectrum, but here we are.
Robles and Kopech are definitely up there, as upside goes.
Torres and Rosario feel more like “safe” bets, as much as any prospect can be, to be a guy with a .350 wOBA and solid defense and a guy with a .330 wOBA and good defense.
Cornerstone players, but not “superstars.”
I’d agree that they’re in the same tier as the upside guys, even without the same upside. There’s a certain floor guys like Torres and Rosario give you since they can stick at shortstop. Mejia too, but Mejia’s hitting is so freaky good and he’s not a lock to stick at catcher, so he’s a little different.
And, of course, Torres is 20 and Rosario is 21. Either could very well take an offensive leap — especially if you believe in Torres’s power.
But yeah, Rosario could be Andrus or a poor man’s Lindor. Torres could be either Seager brother (with less average than Corey, and taking DRS more seriously than UZR for Corey’s defense).
I honestly think that a reasonable people could believe that any prospect in this Top 8 is the best in baseball.
How is the rationale pretty easy to understand? What is prospect ranking taking into consideration? Absolute peak value ever in the .00001 scenario? Because that is what it seems like. Devers will be an above average mlb player for the forseeable future barring injury. Does anyone really think that about Moncada?
Devers seems a lock to be a 3-6 WAR guy (just like Heff Francoeur was).
Moncada could be a 1-3 WAR guy, or a 6-9 WAR guy.
The way you parse that, for better or worse, depends on your faith in Moncada’s ability to adjust.
Jeff Franceour?! Do you mean a 3-6 WAR guy over his career?
To me the question is whether Devers is more like Pablo Sandoval–where he skates by as a great player for a few years on freakish hand-eye coordination before he falls apart–or Miguel Cabrera (all-world slugger in his prime, and pretty good outside of it). I think that’s kind of what you were saying too, I just don’t think Franceour (a 2-3 WAR guy for a while) is a good comparison.
I mean the guy who put up 3 WAR in 70 games when he came into the league, and was unanimously proclaimed as a sure-thing future star.
We know now that he didn’t work out, but that doesn’t change who he was at the time.
Moncada hit .282/.377/.447 for a wRC+ of 130 with 17 steals in 80 games at 21/22 in AAA. His performance was very good.
Devers has obviously been awesome this year and has had an excellent, if unsustainable, start in the majors. Devers has closed the gap between Moncada and himself and I’m sure there are a number of people who would take him over Moncada.
Every prospect is unique. Pretending that Buxton’s path so far portents much of anything about Moncada is simply not fair.
But there is a BIGGER problem with your comp. You act as if Buxton’s failures have been a simple failure of skill development, but there is more to it than that. He hit very well in his first full professional season (young for his level, too), but then things were short-circuited. He hurt his wrist multiple times before 2014 began, and despite playing at the same A+ ball level that he did VERY well in the year before, his hitting dropped off significantly. Then he suffered a season-ended concussion. So we can’t judge his 2014 performance, AND he missed important development time.
Buxton’s plate discipline indicators fell off after the injuries in 2014. Is it a coincidence? Part of the problem? Most off the problem? It’s tough to say, but just because Buxton has been a disappointing supreme tools talent doesn’t mean there is any sort of trend here.
If you make a list of the true super-tool prospect talents in modern baseball history, I suspect you’ll see a lot more success than failure. Exceptions don’t become the rule, though I’m open to correction if this is a lot more common than I think.
I disagree with your point about Buxton; he hardly spent any time at AA or AAA but hit really well at both levels, even for his age (22 years and 23 years old)
It’s not even close tbh. Prospect evaluators grade on tools. Guys like Moncada and Buxton will always see great grades. The reality is that who is giving them a high grade on their hit tool? Do you ever read scouting reports on players who get called up with numbers that are close who aren’t on the radar? It is always the same, “unlikely to make contact well enough to stay in the ML. Potential 4th Of.”
Great point!
If only we had people who could help us tell the difference between two prospects with similar numbers’ relative likelihood to adjust and learn to make better contact!
How quickly we forget that Kris Bryant was K’ing 28% of the time in AAA too. Sometimes the minors numbers dont tell the story.
28% is the best that Moncada’s done–it was the worst Bryant had done in the minors. And while Bryant did it, he was putting up a .439 wOBA.
To the larger point, you’re of course correct that numbers don’t tell the whole story. I would never say, for instance, that this number should preclude Moncada being an excellent prospect. But a #1 prospect usually doesn’t have such poor results in strikeouts.
On the scouting side, what is the consensus on his defense these days?
Yeah Moncada also is way younger than Bryant and had a year off of baseball to come over from Cuba. So tough to compare.
And he’s got impact speed, rather than “just” being an excellent baserunner.
In 2014, Bryant was 22 and slugged .324 with a 164 wRC+ in AAA just 1 year after being drafted.
This year Mondada is 22 and is slugging .136 with a 130 wRC+ in AAA. It is 3 years since he missed development time.
It isn’t that hard to compare them at the same age, similar K and BB rates, one guy had a LOT more power.
Bryant’s having been a much better prospect than Moncada doesn’t have anything to do with Moncada’s worthiness for the #1 spot this year, though.
It probably does…because there are others on the list that are just better prospects, starting with the guy ranked #3.
Unless you think that Devers might be a 1B, and that his .400 BABIP and 35.3 HR/FB% imply that he’s more likely to be a .350-.370 wOBA guy than a .400+ one…even as you believe in Moncada’s defense, speed and capacity to improve his contact thanks to natural bat-to-ball skills that aren’t represented in the statline.
I have never understood and still don’t understand the over-the-top love for Moncada.
When the ball comes off his bat, it’s a very satisfying sound. Combine that with his speed and arm and you’ve got scouts drooling. And also, he’s just so physically talented that he was able to put up huge production in the minors anyway.
It’s easy to dream on a guy like that, and to figure he’ll make adjustments. But for every Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant there’s a hundred prospects with massive tools who never panned out. We just don’t think of them because they didn’t make it.
I remember Charles Barkley saying that while Stromile Swift ran and jumped like a deer, I wouldn’t want a deer actually playing basketball. This is kind of how I feel about Moncada–he’s gonna be Stromile Swift.
These NBA guys think they’re all that but see how they handle standing up in the paint against a player with antlers.
I’m just waiting for the Milwaukee Bucks to actually put a deer on the court. That will be the best day in NBA history.
It’s the same kind of thing that got scouts excited for the likes of Trout, Harper, Mauer, Hamilton, Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez, etc. The very best “toolsy” prospects tend to go on to do VERY good things at the very least, and often so much more than that. Moncada is on that list.
I remember how much gloating there was after 2014 with Harper. “He’s always been overrated” was a common refrain, and in fact he was explicitly voted as such. People didn’t realize that (relative to his age and such) that he had already done fairly special things, and that the tools were coming to the fore.
Some supreme talents hit the ground sprinting. Others jog, still others walk, and some even fall at first. Don’t rush to judgement to quickly, but you should at least understand that Moncada’s tools are pretty exclusive, and being part of that group strongly projects to baseball success.
Don’t forget Delmon Young, Brandon Wood and Ruben Rivera from that list!
But yeah, Harp’s 2012 is the greatest season by a teenager in MLB history, per WAR.
My goodness. Don’t compare anyone to Josh Hamilton, that is just not fair. If Josh Hamilton had gone straight from HS to the pros he might be a HOFer in 5-10 years. Moncada couldn’t “hold his jock” so to speak. Hamilton was like you took the best tool of every player in the history of the game except speed (and only gave him a 70 there) and created a player in a video game. 100+ off the mound in HS at age 16. Best prospect anyone has ever seen. Moncada has got some loud tools, but he is no Josh Hamilton. If Moncada got heavy into drugs and lost 90lbs from crack addiction (would put him at 130lbs) do you think he could be the MLB MVP w one of the best seasons in the modern era in 3 years? I would venture no. Bryce Harper had some loud tools. But even he was not close to Hamilton.
There is an incredible bit of reporting floating around about Josh Hamilton and Josh Beckett and how evaluators viewed them in the MLB draft. I’ll paste it here.
https://www.si.com/vault/2004/04/12/367411/180-degrees-of-separation-in-1999-josh-hamilton-and-josh-beckett-were-so-close-in-talent-and-potential-that-they-were-drafted-1-and-2-now-theyre-worlds-apart
I can’t remember if I had any opinion on them at all (I also had a dial up connection and no cable tv, so my concerns were much more local then) but it seems like they were considered co-#1s. The kind of Bryce Harper/Strasburg-talent who would go #1 in any draft, except they were both in that one.
What’s particularly interesting–look at what people said about Beckett and Hamilton’s character. It’s amazing to read that in hindsight.
Hamilton was Mickey Mantle, except he liked crack along with the booze.
Losing his rookie eligibility will knock him off the list soon, and then you won’t have to worry about it.
If he manages to stay in the majors.
He’s got a 106 wRC+ over the last 2 weeks, even with the terrifying strikeout numbers…and the White Sox suck.
There’s no question as to whether he accrues the 40 PA necessary to lose rookie status.
My answer is: Moncada is a unique case. We’re used to evaluating prospects on a fairly even playing field (and with a LOT of history to use in that analysis), but he is a bit different than usual, because he basically took off a year of baseball to get to the US.
Most players of his talent level show up in US professional baseball at age 17 or 18 and see steady, unbroken development through coaching and playing experience (barring injuries). Because Moncada has a different “profile”, we should expect that he would come with a few more rough edges than prospects of his caliber.
HOWEVER…with each passing month, it becomes more and more fair to have some concern about this. The more time passes, the more you would expect to “get over” this would-be handicap, and if he doesn’t we can wonder more whether it might just be an issue in his game.
Personally, I’m not there yet. But I understand if some people are, and I might start becoming concerned soon.
Devers is the clear 1. Moncada reminds me of Buxton. Yea sure maybe he reigns it all in for a couple 5+ war seasons. Maybe they both do. But Devers will produce more WAR than either of those two. How can Moncada be 1, and a guy called up and according to FANGRAPHS DAVE CAMERON is already a better hitter than Mookie Betts (I agree also) and somehow takes the 3 spot.
Huh. That’s interesting – I hadn’t realized Dave Cameron was this omniscient god you imply he is. I just learned something new!
Cannot…resist…#6org
Nice work, Eric. Thanks for putting this list together. You seem to be Forrest Whitley’s #1 fan, having him ranked much higher here (Top 20!) than I’ve seen on other lists. What is it about him that you think other evaluators might be missing or at least underappreciating?
Evaluators rarely (never?) go by others’ reviews or rankings. As for why he’s so high? Well, BA just had a good piece about Whitley – that in the past 20 years there have been 121 prep 1st round pitchers and only 4 others have made it to AA in their first pro season likely Whitley: Dylan Bundy, Chad Billingsly, Kershaw & Greinke. Pretty good company. And in his AA debut tonight, FW goes 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 11K’s. So he’s a pretty decent prospect.
Whitley doesn’t have “premium” velocity for a right-hander, which I think might turn a lot of people off. Sometimes though, it’s good to focus on what he has rather than what he doesn’t. He’s big. He looks durable. He has four pitches. His velocity is isn’t elite but still very good (low to mid 90s), and it pairs well with the power curveball. He throws strikes. And he’s dominating older competition.
Thx Sad. Do you recall where Buddy & Billingsly were in their velocities at the same age-ish? Just curious.
I don’t remember for Billingsley, but just perusing the player page gives me a sense of where Billingsley. Billingsley was averaging 91.6 in his first year with the dodgers, which would put him a little lower than the reports on Whitley now (92-95, saw 91-96 from one guy’s gun). I guess it’s possible he lost some velocity later on, but I’d guess (no more than a guess!) that Whitley probably is as good or better than Billingsley was in the velocity department.
I also don’t remember for Bundy, but a quick google search reveals his velocity often hung out in the 94-96 range at age 19. That would make his velocity quite a bit better than Whitley. Of course, he had a lot of arm problems, and later reports had him as low as 90-92 at times (but still 95-96 in others).
I like this list, but it seems like #21-#31 is the home for “guys who Eric really liked pre-draft and don’t have a track record yet”. All Top 5 picks from last year, plus Corey Ray all wind up there. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but he clearly believes in his pre-draft scouting reports when guys like Triston McKenzie, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and Ian Anderson are rated lower (although McKenzie not by a meaningful amount).
One thing I’d love to know is where the FV cutoffs are.
Also, loving that Sixto Sanchez is getting some love.
Based on his rankings for the draft and those that were traded and assuming none of their grades have changed in the month since, the following groups should be guaranteed (can’t say anything for the rest).
60FV: 4(Jimenez)-23(Greene)
55FV: 28(Gore)-54(Calhoun)
50FV: 81(Peterson)-HM(Mateo,Cease…)
Thanks for doing some of the work on this.
Two Angels on the list and one “also considered”! FeelsGoodMan
It seems strange that Alec Hansen wouldn’t be considered for this list, but so would Dylan Cease, who is ranked one place below him in the updated White Sox Top-10 prospects list
Yeah, I know Hansen is a college pitcher in A+, but he’s staying healthy, pitching deep, and showing impeccable command. He should already be in AA, and probably would be if not for a system logjam.
I feel like Hansen need some love.
FYI: Daniel Flores links to a pitcher from the Mexican Leagues.
Anderson Espinoza feels like a wait and see guy. 30 feels awfully aggressive at this juncture.
Seems like a reasonable place for a guy some had cracking the top 10 prior to injury. 30 is probably the “wait and see” spot for a SP of his status, just as 20 is the “wait and see” spot for Alex Reyes.
Is Kaprielian ranked above Fowler because you view Fowler’s injury as potentially more serious?
How are Dane Dunning and Alec Hansen not even on the “Others Considered” list. What does a pitcher have to do to be added???
Cool list.
As a Mets fan, this looks generous for Giminez and Peterson.
Other thing I’d say is that I think you are tragically underrating these 5 guys:
Brinson – what’s the reason he would out of the top ten??
Rogers – are people still snoozing on him?
Frazier – not higher than 40?? wuuuuut??
Hoskins – going to be a beast
Hader – this guy has been underrated for the past 4 yrs. I don’t get it. He’s pretty unhittable.
I like Brinson too, Keith Law had him at #29, somehow Eric might be the high guy on Brinson.
Part of Hader’s unhittable-ness is that hes wild as hell.
Re: Brinson–contact. He struggles with breaking balls and there’s some concern that his good numbers at AAA are because breaking balls don’t work right there. The only way for him to learn it is really to play through it in MLB.
The plus side is that he has the Aaron Judge-ish quality of making tons of adjustments…but I still feel weird when guys with contact problems are in the top 10 (or top 20, really). Brinson at #13 seems like an aggressive but defensible location.
I agree about Frazier though.
Frazier sure looks like he has “the goods”. Developmental paths don’t always conform to expectations, but there is a lot of unique stuff to his makeup and game. As with any prospect, we can’t be sure where he’ll end up settling, but darn it if I can’t see him becoming anything less than a quality regular.
A little shocked at the degree to which the prospect world is still holding the line on Meadows. Sure, the guy made it to AAA young and still has time, but he may be developing platoon splits (.600 OPS against lefties), has taken a big step back in the power department, and has constant soft-tissue problems that aren’t going to do him any favors in the defense/steals department.
I’m not trying to be negative, I’m mostly wondering why many evaluators are still giving him the benefit of a doubt. I mean, I’d take the guy immediately behind him (Tucker) for my outfield 100% of the time.
The Cardinals Jordan Hicks should garner attention soon — this guy can pitch.
I know I’m a homer, but man, choosing guys like Adell and Haseley over Austin Hays seems like some pretty extreme over-obsession with recent draft picks. I know Hays has some concerning approach issues, but we’re talking about a 22-year-old with plus power, a plus glove, and a plus arm. That’s a pretty high floor. And then there’s his 174 wRC+ in AA this year. Steamer projects a 108 wRC+ in MLB right now. Hard for me to see how that’s not a top 100 guy, even if he just missed.
I’m guessing 1-8 are all categorized as 65 FV, and could therefore be in any order…but I’m wondering why you have Eloy over Gleyber, who’s actually a month younger, is a better defender at a more valuable position, and ran a 140 wRC+ between AA and AAA before his season ended.
Is it just the injury?
Eloy a potential top 5 bat.
That’s fair. It really is splitting hairs at that point, as you weight the relative value of a possible Stanton/Bautista bat vs. that of a likely Seager/Zobrist bat with good 2B/acceptable SS defense.
I’m wondering the same of Eloy vs. Acuna, who is a full year younger, playing a premium defensive position and showing all five tools, while also doing it at AA/AAA. Is Eloy’s bat really thought of to be that much better than Acuna’s to where it should override those advantages everywhere else?
Light tower power baby! I assume the idea is that if Eloy puts it together he’s a 40+ HR, high average bat, with enough of an eye to take his walks when pitchers don’t give him much to hit. Whether you like that more than a 5-tool CF is a matter of personal preference, the difference of a spot doesn’t mean a whole lot.
Lorenzo Cain and Giancarlo Stanton have 5.2 and 5.1 WAR/650, respectively, over the last 5 seasons.
If they were the same age, and had the same contract, who would you pick to start a team?
The bat, we know for sure the impact it has, we still approximating defense and baserunning.
Well…we won’t know anything “for sure” about the impact of the bat will have until he has far more than 4 plate appearances above A-ball, haha.
I was speaking towards relative value at the ml level and more in regard to your Stanton/Cain comparison.
In regards to Eloy and gleyber in particular, it’s more Eloy drips mvp ceiling to Torres all star. 13 months ago both cubs too. ugh…
Ahhh, gotcha. I take Stanton too, and it’s not a hard decision.
Gleyver vs. Eloy really comes down to whether you want the guy with a 4-6 WAR range of outcomes if you roll the dice on a guy in the 2-8 WAR range.
Stanton/Cain is an interesting analogy. I’d take the bat too, but that could be cognitive bias towards value I can more intuitively “see.”
And it’s a good point that, performance-wise, Acuna has excelled at a higher level. This suggests that, for Eric, Eloy has a pretty impressive ceiling.
The bat, and that is why Anthony Rendon won’t win the MVP this season.
o Danny (Jansen) Boy, the hypes the hypes are callin’
I’m curious as to what’s driving the Rodgers drop in ranking? Is it the middling success at AA, old for the level at 21, plate discipline, glove, injuries? He’s down 11 spots from preseason, but that high-A performance was still impressive.
21 at Double A is not old at all – it’s actually young for the level. 23 would be considered old for a “legit” prospect at AA, however.
Yeah, I might be spoiled by Devers/Acuna, just trying to throw ideas out there. It looks like Eric took a serious revaluation of Rodgers and I’m curious what he saw.
Braves + Phillies + Chisox own 25% of this list
I’m not a fan of this why isn’t x ranked higher because there are only so many top100 spots but I have to ask why hoskins isn’t higher? Katoh loves him due to his power/contact combination, 16% ks and 300 iso this year in AAA is definitely sexy and shows that last year wasn’t just an effect of the phillies AA park.
Really power/con is the new power speed:),those guys have a good chance to succeed.
Of course he is older for a prospect at age 24 and a 1b but I’m still intrigued by his power and contact combination (and he isn’t allergic to walks either).
Its the whole R/R 1B bias since there haven’t been many successes with that profile. Same reason Goldschmidt wasnt ever ranked.
If that’s the case it’s stupid. We have Hoskins being arguably the best hitter in his level of the minors in back to back seasons. Screw his handedness and position.
Part of me thinks that prospect gurus don’t like to give guys like Hoskins their due because it highlights how badly they missed on projecting them.
The only AA players with an argument to have been better offensively than Hoskins last season were Dylan Cozens, Tyler O’Neill and Rowdy Tellez.
How’s that working out?
There’s a massive offensive bar at first base. Hoskins’ being ranked at all, given his lack of value in all other phases of the game, is a huge compliment to the kid’s bat.
BO BICHETTE IS LITERALLY A WAR HERO HE DIED FOR OUR SINS HOW DARE YOU NOT RANK HIM TOP-10 THIS IS AN OUTRAGE
Bo Bichette died?
I think you mean Boba Fett.
Kinda odd to me that Austin Beck wasn’t even mentioned in the “considered”, but yet Corey Ray and Delvin Perez seem to get a pass… (Beck is now OPSing .999 in his 9 August games thus far and all the reports I’ve heard on him in CF point to him being a plus out there….)
Ray will be 23 next month and has a 92 wRC+ in his second exposure to high A…
Might it be because Beck has a 72 wRC+ in Arizona rookie ball?
My prediction from before the draft was that we’ll look back in 20 years and wonder why anyone thought Austin Beck was better than Jo Adell. They’ll probably both bust, but I know who I want long-term.
Do you not know how to read? Yeah, he went like 0-21 to start his pro career…. Big whoop, he’s 18…. In his 31 game sample, he now has an OPS of 1.042 in his last 11 games… so yeah, if you’re dumb enough to look at aggregate numbers on a 30 game sample of an 18 year old adjusting to pro ball without looking at his draft pedigree and the fact he’s started to figure it out, while playing plus defense in CF…. Not sure what’s worse, your comment or the fact 4 people gave it a thumbs up
So nobody has an issue with Ray being as high as he is? Nobody? A College bat that was supposed to be advanced and move quickly who seems to be ranked just because of his draft capital…. Instead you downvote me and overreact to a small sample size of an adjustment period from an 18 year old….
And again, I’m not saying Ray shouldn’t be ranked higher (which I don’t believe he should, honestly, but…), I’m saying it’s odd to still have a guy ranked that high on draft pedigree alone while not even considering this year’s #6 pick who has started to turn it on August.
Love to see these midseason lists, thanks!
Did you consider Mitchell White for this at all? He’s had some injury problems, but he’s been excellent when he’s pitched. Keith Law said he may have been the best pitcher taken in the 2016 draft.
Love your work. Great list, though everyone is going to have questions or gripes. I personally think that Acuna has superstar potential and I really believe he has possibly the highest chance of reaching that potential out of the top 5 prospects, but that’s just me. Moncada has the highest ceiling, but he has a lot of work on his contact skill in order to reach it. I see a lot of young Andruw Jones in Acuna, but hopefully he can stay in shape and lay off the sliders away.
Angels ever so slowly building up that farm system, woot woot!
Devers over Torres, really?
I don’t feel like he should be top 100, but why not more love for Jhailyn Ortiz. I know he’s far away but seems to have made some improvements from last year already. He seems comparable to Yordan Alvarez, who’s getting the hype-train moving. Both big OF’s that may move, but Phillies seems to believe Ortiz is athletic to stay at RF, and he seems to feature more power than Alvarez.
Like you said, he might move to first base but he has big approach issues and if he’s a first base only guy, he has to fix those. I like him a lot though, but he is very risky and far away
No love for Kestdogg, Kestbaby, the Kestmeister, Keston Hiura? Sweetest swing in the minors, tearing it up straight out of the draft?
Hi K-rate in A for a 21 year old, and we still don’t know whether he’ll be at 2nd or left. I also think he probably should be considered in the honorable mention category, but I understand forgetting about him with all the other names to deal with.
I see what you are doing here, but not sure how you can watch Moncada play and watch Devers play and pick Moncada. Sure Moncada has tools Devers does not, but his hit tool at the age of 20 points to a better than 50% outcome of being a star. Maybe Moncada has a higher potential peak, but maybe he reaches it 1/10th of the time. Where as Devers is a star more often than not. Devers is a pretty good bet to reach 20 career war. I would venture Moncada has a less than 50% chance at that.
I absolutely phucking hate that you have this year’s draft picks, and Class A guys on this list. You don’t deserve to be on this list until you’ve proven yourself at AAA, and have a clear path to the majors. All good statistics and scouting reports don’t mean DICK. Have you learned nothing from Moneyball? The only guys who deserve to be on the list are the guys who have at least proven something.
“You don’t deserve to be on this list until you’ve proven yourself at AAA, and have a clear path to the majors.”
According to this standard, Trout and Harper would never have made a top 100 list.
If I recall correctly, the lesson of Moneyball was for small-market teams to find and exploit differences in talent valuation, and the lesson in the years after the book’s issue was that those differences would not last. It certainly was not that the scouts were wrong and that college stats were to be trusted, because the A’s biggest drafting successes during the period were Joe Blanton (a guy everyone was on) … and Mark Teahen. That’s not a rousing endorsement of making guys prove themselves on a statistical basis at some preconceived and somewhat arbitrary level.
Hoskins in the low 70s seems insane to me. He seems about as a sure thing as you can get to be a good MLB hitter. Are there comps of guys with his combined minor league power dominance and lack of strikeouts that have busted recently?
Yeah!
I can’t think of any high power/high contact R/R guys with significant defensive limitations who are underperforming right now after killing it in the Phillies farm system!
Houston’s Fisher doesn’t make the cut? At first I thought it was because he was now with the big club, but so are Moncada, Rosario and Devers. Not long ago I read that Fisher was considered #1 on some lists based mostly on his 2017 AAA performance. He also has looked pretty good in MLB. Is this just an oversight or is he really so lowly regarded by you?
Wow! A 16 year old shortstop (Wander Franco) just signed and having no pro record is included among “others considered” for the top 100. Quite an endorsement!
I think Hoskins rank at 71 is going to look funny pretty soon.
No love for Miguel Andujar?
I love Andujar, but he’s a guy who could be put at either 80 or 135 without much argument from me.
One of those eye-of-the-beholder 50 FVs.
You need to move Tatis Jr. to #1, you’ll be a year earlier then everybody else and seem really smart. Luis Urias is top 12 w/ KATOH too btw.
Eric, thank you so much for your continued in-depth minor league coverage. I’m sure I speak for the majority of the readers when I say that we really appreciate the work that you do here. It’s easily the best free prospect content available – if not THE best, period.
What about Harrison Bader
Sorry if someone already mentioned this (and maybe it’s actually right), but Daniel Flores links to a pitcher in the Mexican League. If that’s the same guy just ignore this. As always, thanks for all the awesome content! Great work, Eric!
Austin Hays for the Orioles received an honorable mention but I expect he will be top 25 when new list is released before next season. He is in top 5 in a lot of minor league categories despite being younger then the other top 5 guys. Look for him to make a huge leap on prospect list.
Wondering about Patrick Wisdom. Currently sitting at 28 HRs. An above average defender, with a strong arm, and above average speed. Is he another Paul DeJong who prognosticators whiffed on?