Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 6/20/2016
| 2:01 |
: Well, Happy AZL Opening Day to you too.
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Author Archive: Eric Longenhagen
Scouting the Reds’ Cody Reed Before His Debut
When Cody Reed takes the mound on Saturday he’ll likely be wearing the same pair of rec specs he’s worn since his sophomore year of high school. Reed donned the glasses after he had a hard time picking up signs from his catcher — especially during night games — as a freshman and has continued to wear them as a pro. Though, when Reed is pitching well, it’s opposing hitters who look like they could use a pair.
Reed was a late second-rounder out of Northwest Mississippi Community College in 2013. At the time the industry thought there was a good chance he’d just end up as a reliever. There was arm strength, there was an above-average slider, but the strike-throwing and changeup were both behind, and Reed’s firebrand mound presence had many considering him a potential closer. Now the velocity remains but the slider, and Reed’s usage of it, has improved — as has the changeup. He still has some issues throwing strikes, but things have progressed enough in that area that instead of his control dictating whether or not he starts or relieves, it’s going to dictate just how good of a starter he’s going to be.
The Willson Contreras Scouting Report
Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was already creating a good deal of discussion within the industry before the trade deadline last year and, indeed, teams were asking about Contreras as that day came and went. The Cubs rebuffed and Contreras continued what was arguably the biggest breakout among positional prospects in 2015 on through Arizona Fall League, where every team saw him succeed against a superlative class of AFL arms before he tweaked his hamstring hauling ass down to first base on a groundout the first week of November and was shut down. He picked up where he left off in 2016 and owns a .350/.439/.591 line at Triple-A Iowa with 28 extra-base hits in just 239 PAs.
Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
| 12:31 |
: Chat chat chat!
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| 12:31 |
: what do you make of rhys hoskins? anything there to get excited about?
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| 12:32 |
: It’s certainly more effective than it is pretty — which is why you hear the Paul Goldschmidty nonsense connected to him, they share that — But still a 1B-only profile and he’s hitting in the same park that gave us Matt Rizotti, Darin Ruf, Tagg Bozied….
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| 12:33 |
: He’s not a “no” for me, but when you step back and look at the whole profile, it’s probably not better than a platoon guy.
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| 12:33 |
: I’ll get a first-hand look in about a week and a half, though.
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| 12:33 |
: How much will Willson contreras be playing for the cubs, the rest of the season? Catches 2 of every 5 or more?
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Scouty Thoughts on Tim Anderson and Michael Ynoa
Now that the draft has passed it’s time to get caught up on the weekend’s most significant call-up, that of White Sox top prospect Tim Anderson. Anderson was hitting .304/.325/.409 at Triple-A Charlotte before his promotion.
First, let’s appreciate how incredible it is that Anderson has come this far in such a short amount of time. He didn’t begin playing baseball seriously until his junior year of high school and received no Division I offers despite playing just under eight miles from the University of Alabama and for a school that has produced big-league talent in the past in former reliever Brandon Medders. Instead, Anderson’s chief athletic accomplishment in high school came in basketball, where he helped Hillcrest High School capture an Alabama state title in 2011 (video here, Anderson is #12). Jalen Brown, who clearly looks like the best scorer on that team, ended up averaging just over 10 points per game at Shelton State College, another local school that whiffed on Anderson.
After he began focusing on baseball, Anderson ended up at East Central Community College in Decatur, Mississippi, and slashed .306/.425/.500 with 30 steals in 30 attempts (per Baseball Cube) as a freshman in 2012 but somehow went undrafted. He was finally unearthed during a small college summer league later that year, then blew up at an autumn JUCO showcase and was selected in the first round the following June.
Anderson has prodigious physical skill. He has plus bat speed, clunky-yet-effective bat control and an ability to drive the ball to various parts of the field despite footwork that’s usually indicative of pull-only hitters. In fact, three of Anderson’s four home runs this season have been to right field. Despite special bat speed, Anderson doesn’t yet have a feel for striking the baseball in a way that generates consistent lift, especially to his pull side, and most of his contact is hard but into the ground. It’s a unique contact profile and one that’s tough to grade, but generally scouts think Anderson will end up a 50 or 55 hitter.
Scouting Debutants Jameson Taillon and Albert Almora
It’s been a long, strange trip to the major leagues for Jameson Taillon. Sandwiched at second overall between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the 2010 draft, Taillon missed all of 2014 and 2015 while recovering from Tommy John and inguinal hernia surgeries, respectively. His stuff flashed last fall during instructional league and there was hope coming into the season that he would be able to pick up somewhere close to where he left off in 2013 when he had a brief and wild but effective stint in Triple-A.
This year, Taillon has exceeded all hopes and expectations and laid waste to the International League. In ten starts (61.2 innings), Taillon has struck out 61 and walked just six, while generating a ton of ground balls. Per MLBfarm.com, 83 of the 168 balls put in play versus Taillon this year have been on the ground. He debuts for the Pirates tonight against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets.
Evaluating the Prospect in the James Shields Trade
The only prospect involved in the White Sox and Padres deal for James Shields is 17 year old INF Fernando Tatis, Jr., who the White Sox signed during the 2015-2016 July 2 International Free Agent period for $700,000. Tatis was not ranked among the 47 prospects to which former FanGraphs writer Kiley McDaniel ascribed hierarchy on his 2015 J2 Sortable Board and was not on my top 10 International Prospects list from that time. He’s blown up a bit this Spring and is one of the more interesting bats in Extended Spring Training. Read the rest of this entry »
Scouting Brady Aiken’s First Professional Appearance
Like my piece from two weeks ago, this one contains notes from the desert backfields of Extended Spring Training. Of note today: the professional debut of Brady Aiken. Appearances by Tim Lincecum, Huston Street and Dakota Chalmers serve your main side dish.
Brady Aiken, LHP, Cleveland Indians
Current Level: Extended Spring Training, Age: 19.3, Height/Weight: 6’4/225
Drafted: First round of 2015, 17th overall, signed for $2.5 mil
You should all know Aiken’s backstory by now (drafted by Houston, unsigned, Tommy John surgery, drafted by Cleveland), so let’s cut right to the chase and talk about the stuff. Aiken was 89-92 mph, with just decent arm acceleration and a bit of effort, though less of both than he had in high school. The fastball was quite straight and the kids at the White Sox’ Extended camp slapped it around. Aiken’s curveball has retained its impressive pre-surgery shape and depth. It bent in between 76 and 80 mph and a few of them were above average. The changeup (Aiken threw two, one at 85 and one at 86) was firm and below average, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect much more from a pitch so dependent on feel and release at this point in his rehab. Aiken will likely spend some time here in Arizona for Rookie-level ball before he heads to an affiliate, if he does at all. There’s no reason to draw conclusions based on how he looked, especially with so many opportunities for evaluation ahead, so keep in mind that this is just a snapshot of where things are at right now.
As you can see from the video, Aiken has become rather large. He’s listed at 205 pounds, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pushing 230 right now. Whether that’s good or bad or anything at all is hard to say. Aiken was a workout warrior in high school (crossfit, box jumps, etc.) so it’s possible this is new found beef was added intentionally. It’s just one more thing to monitor throughout the summer. Aiken’s delivery in high school had, in my opinion, better pacing and balance and was generally more athletic and had less recoil than what he showed on Saturday.
Scouting Julio Urias, Dodger Phenom
The Dodgers announced today that teenage LHP Julio Urias will be called up to make his major-league debut on Friday in New York against the defending National League champion Mets. His statistics in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year have been cartoonish. In eight appearances, Urias has thrown 41 innings, allowed 24 hits, 8 walks, and accrued 44 strikeouts. He sports a 1.10 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP — versus the PCL averages of 4.36 and 1.40, respectively. All of it at the age of 19, a full eight years younger than the average Pacific Coast Leaguer.
When he debuts on Friday, Urias will be the youngest player in Major League Baseball and the first pitcher to debut as a teenager since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. Not bad for a kid whom the Dodgers discovered in the Mexican League (and later signed for $450,000) on the back end of a scouting trip that also netted them Yasiel Puig.
Urias’ repertoire and usage thereof is advanced. His fastball is plus and will sit 91-95 while touching 97. However, it can be fairly straight, and even features some natural cut at times, but Urias generally commands it down or below the zone and to both sides of the plate. He generates lots of ground balls when he’s not catching hitters looking on the corners or blowing away the ones who struggle with velocity. The heater is complemented by a plus low-80s curveball and an 82-85 mph changeup that is consistently above average. Urias’ usage of his repertoire is just as (if not more) impressive than his pure stuff. You’ll see him back door and back foot the curveball to right-handed hitters, pitch backwards with it to lefties and rarely leave a secondary pitch hanging in a place where it can be punished.