Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 6/20/2016

Eric A Longenhagen: Well, Happy AZL Opening Day to you too.

jon: Dustin May the next deGrom?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Only similarity there is that the hair is fun. May is a raw HS draftee and deGrom was a converted SS from Stetson. Even before we get into their stuff they’re already incongruous. Background and context are important to evaluation.

Stenzy: Thoughts on Christian Arroyo ceiling and the Giants plans for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of the best pure hit tools in the minors but that dude can’t play SS. He’s seen time at 2B and 3B this year, 3B is probably the better bet. He has left side arm strength but not the range for the MI as far as I’m concerned.

Sailor Jerry: Think Jose Peraza’s bat is enough to evoke into ab everyday player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not as any sort of impact regular, no.

mtsw: You gain access to a time machine, with the caveat that it only works on professional baseball players who haven’t accumulated major league service time. Which prospect do you send back in time to kill Hitler?

Eric A Longenhagen: The CIA has already asked Max Pentecost to do this and he politely declined.

Erik: Jake Thomspon and Mark Appel look thoroughly underwhelming in AAA this year. Are we looking at something like a 5th starter and a middle reliever as being the most likely outcome between the two of them, rather than two potential top of the rotation guys as it looked like in preseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say that anyone who thought that either of them had top of the rotation potential, especially if they thought that after just seeing them in the spring, is a little overzealous. Thompson is 6 fastball, 6 slider, 5 curve and change and maybe only 40 or 45 command. That’s really good but it isn’t a top of the rotation guy.

Monte’ Max: How’s Josh bell looking? Any chance he gets the call prior to September without an injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hitting from both sides, looks really good. Defense at first is still not good but it’s gotten better. Yes, I think he wears a Pirates uni this year.

Zonk: That was quite a moment last night for Willson Contreras. Chris Mitchell hung him with a potential 60 grade, are you buying that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mira: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-willson-contreras-scouting-report/

Roger Salkeld: Have you seen Tyler O’Neill this year, and if so, is he a top 100 prospect for you next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and he looked much better than last fall when he was a bit of a mess. He’ll probably be in consideration for the last 25 or so names on the list this offseason (if this continues) but so will like 49 other guys.

Phil Bickford: When does it start getting tough for me?

Eric A Longenhagen: When you need to use a third pitch.

Q-Ball: Are the failures of Rusney Castillo, Hector Olivera, and the “meh” of Yasmany Tomas now dampening enthusiasm for Cuban talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, if anything the tempering of expectations for future Cuban signings is being caused by a sheer lack of talent remaining on the island after the recent exodus.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I would argue such an exodus has primarily been caused by the prospect of normalizing relations with the US.

Jeff : Who has a higher ceiling between Eloy Jiminez and Gleyber Torres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eloy has 70 raw power projection, Gleyber is a good bet to play a premium defensive position. Do with that what you will.

Colby: Albies slow adjustment to AAA cause for concern?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’s 19.

So Cold in the D: Thought Funkhouser in the 4th represented good value for the Tigers. Less excited about Matt Manning. Can you break him down for me?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge, athletic kid (is committed to Loyola Marymount for hoops and baseball) who throws really hard and will break off some plus sliders.

LudeBurger: Looking forward to the July 2 coverage from you. What is there to know about Luis almanzar?

Eric A Longenhagen: Other than Maitan, Almanzar has the best combination of defensive actions and offensive potential. He’s explosive and among the best in this year’s class of J2 kids which isn’t a great group overall.

Zonk: Is it possible that we think too highly of the quality of competition and resulting stats from the Serie Nacional (Cuba)? And we underrated the quality of the KBO?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to the first question, not sure on the second but I think we’re getting to the point where we need to look more closely at it.

Roger Salkeld: Do you think Andrew Moore winds up being a MLB starter, or is he organizational filler?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he’s a big league rotation piece it’s probably only as a 4/5.

Graver: ETA on YO-MO? where does he fit in a crowded BOS lineup? Peace and Blessins y’all

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. Kid is 21, was just promoted to Double-A today. I can tell you that, barring something unforeseen, I’ll be seeing him sometime next week.

Bsg: How will have a better career, Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer , Nick Williams, or Victor Robles?

Eric A Longenhagen: Robles is atop that list for me.

Zonk: What farm systems have improved the most since this time last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: MIL, CIN, CLE off the top of my head.

Jared: Anyone to get excited about in the Tigers system besides Burrows and Stewart?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they sign Manning then him. I like Mike Gerber too.

Mike: Do you think Kevin Newman can develop any more power, or remain a hit tool-oriented player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought coming out of UofA that he could unlock more power with a relatively simple tweak to his footwork but never thought it’d be better than 4 game power, if that. He’s a good bat who plays SS.

Big Joe Montferrant: What are your thoughts on Domingo Acevedo?

Eric A Longenhagen: High-leverage stuff but relief-only for me.

Thatguy: Will Michael Reed ever hit for power?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, bat path doesn’t allow for it consistently.

Alex: Do you think either Ryan Mountcastle or Yu-Cheng Chang can stay at SS long term? And do you see either as having enough bat to survive a position switch?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they both move.

Eric A Longenhagen: Enough bat? Yes but I’m more confident in Chang’s than Mountcastle’s. Lot of projecting has to be done to like Mountcastle, but I did pre-draft.

spencer kieboom: How attractive is my brother?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nats broadcasters themselves used the word “heartthrob” so that’s probably at least a 60 bone structure, right?

Q-Ball: I go to Cape Cod for 2 weeks every summer. How important is the Cape Cod league from a scouting perspective? The games are great, l drag the family as many times as I can….

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s very important, especially those who want to see how things look with wood bats and for kids whose performances the next spring are clouded by quality of competition.

Mike: Think Aaron Judge can adjust and make it to be an above average regular for the Yankees?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but he looks very uncomfortable at the plate right now. And, I can’t believe I’m saying this about a guy his size, I think he has some plate coverage issues.

Chris: Is Atlanta’s farm system overrated to you? They have incredible depth but no real potential stars. Depth can only be worth so much.

Eric A Longenhagen: I would disagree with the support you provided for our question. They have half a dozen guys throwing in the mid-90s with good breaking stuff. I’ve considered heading to Orlando for insrtux just to see their guys.

Jack: Where would Mickey moniak rank in the Phillies system?

Eric A Longenhagen: #2 behind Crawford.

Ross: Do you think the Mariners have an above average major league in their farm system? If yes who?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you made me pick one I’d say Kyle Lewis. That system is slowly starting to climb.

Alex: Would you name a couple guys you have a (possibly irrational) love for relative to the rest of the industry?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scott Kingery, Bryson Brigman are the two bigs ones.

Jon Targ: Do you have any opinions on any Yankee prospect (whether higher or lower) that is different from the vast majority?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Dustin Fowler a bit more than the consensus and think some of the talk surrounding James Kaprielian being a top of the rotation starter was a little rich.

Rick: What do you think of Josh Ockimey’s start to the season? Stat line looks like he’s improved both his game power and plate discipline

Eric A Longenhagen: Ockimey was a Philly high school kid so I saw a bunch of him pre-draft and I liked him. Had a knack for power to all fields and was a huge kid. Philly isn’t exactly baseball-rich and I think what you’re seeing is the kid starting to make adjustments.

BS: Did you learn anything working with K Law, or were you on equal experience with him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I learned a ton about sourcing. organizing, balancing baseball with family, the politics of the industry and, most importantly, what light filters are best for the pictures of your food.

Rean Shudy: how do you see guys like Frankie Montas and Micah Johnson fitting in with the Dodgers now or in 2017? or are they spare parts on a big-budget team?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Montas ends up in relief and Johnson is a 4.

GPT: Is Adalberto Mejia changing minds around the league who were skeptical of him sticking as a starter in the majors? I think you weren’t one of those people.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was sure locating and sequencing like a big leaguer in the Fall League. Stuff plays fine, he’s a fourth starter for me.

Zach: Based on YTD performance, who has elevated their prospect status the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question, we’re probably at or approaching the point where we name names with confidence. I’ll say Yohander Mendez.

Dre: Do you think any of Kyle Zimmer, Dylan Bundy, and Hunter Harvey will get past their injury histories and pitch near the top of a big league rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sadly, no. If one of them somehow did it I’d be very happy.

Alex: Gilbert Lara done anything to prove his signing dollars yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s shown flashes but was still spinning his wheels late in extended.

Victor Robles: Am I the Real Deal, or too early to tell?

Eric A Longenhagen: We don’t need to worry about the numbers and SSS’s, man. The tools are The Deal.

JerryF: You still owe us a Luke Weaver scouting report from last week.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know, that’s my fault. It’ll hit twitter as soon as the chat is done.

Star Macking: Duane Underwood has been hurt a lot, and is under-performing this year. Some sites had as a top 100 overall, while others he’s not in Cubbies top 10. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: He threw one insane inning at a Rangers/Cubs all-prospects game at the very end of spring training where he was (runs to get notebook)………..

Eric A Longenhagen: Up to 97 and throwing three pitches for strikes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t gotten a report like that all year.

connor : Do you think Steven Moya finally figured things out?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical.

Nick: What kind of prospect is/was Brandon McIlwain? Potential 5 tool guy? When would he have been drafted (based on talent; ignore the financial stuff)?

Eric A Longenhagen: So, for those who don’t know, McIlwain graduated early from HS to go to South Carolina where he’ll play QB and baseball. He got like 12 at-bats as a freshman. Bigger body but could run well enough to play CF, all-fields power, tons of projection because of the two-sport, northeast pedigree…

Eric A Longenhagen: Last summer after showcases, Keith and I both thought he had a chance to go in the top ten or fifteen with a good spring because the tools were so good. Alas, football.

TC: Can you give a quick explanation of the game power score on a prospects fangraph player page? For example, Aaron judge’s says 20/60. I assume that’s 20 current, 60 future, but if 20 is the lowest possible on the 20-80 scale, surely that cant be accurate for a guy like Judge who while kind of disappointing with the in game power, has posted decent power numbers.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I think that auto-filling a present 20 on lots of prospects’ hit and game power just because they’re really far away from the big leagues (which Judge probably was when Kiley uploaded those tools) isn’t really useful for the readers, even though it’s probably accurate.

covelli: Was AJ Puk as much of a steal as he seems for the A’s at pick 6?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I thought it was about right.

dock ellis: no Oscar de la Cruz so far this year after some buzz coming out of 2015. what gives?

Eric A Longenhagen: Injured and has been hard to get info on when he’ll throw, though I think he threw on the side last week. Hoping he’s in AZL for a bit as he gets loose. Pre-injury reports were good.

martin: cody reed is for real, or one good game, can’t tell

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-reds-cody-reed-before-his-debut/

Bryan: Is Bregman’s power surge for real? Does this change future projections of him going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say that Bregman has sustained it for long enough now that teams are being forced to re-evaluate.

covelli: What kind of pro do think Matt Chapman will be? Can he shake that k rate?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the glove and power will carry him enough that he’s a big leaguer but he’ll have to make more contact to avoid Matt Dominguez’s fate.

Ben: How much of a factor do you think prospect fatigue was in causing Rutherford to fall?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Rutherford fell because a team later in the draft had more money waiting for him.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s all for today. This will be my weekly chat day/time so see you back here next Monday. AZL starts tonight and I’m hitting CLE/CIN which should mean Brady Aiken and hopefully Will Benson. Carolina/Cal League All Star Game in CA tomorrow. Look for those reports here this week.