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Anthony Rizzo’s Dramatic Turnaround

It’s been overshadowed by the controversy surrounding his overly aggressive slide into home plate against the Pirates on Monday — a slide ruled legal by the umpires and replay officials at the time but later deemed interference by Major League Baseball, and dissected here by Craig Edwards — but Anthony Rizzo has turned the corner. Following a frigid March and April, he’s put together one of the majors’ hottest performances in May. In fact, he’s made one of the most drastic month-to-month turnarounds of any hitter thus far this year. His performance is worth a closer look.

Before we go there, though… to these eyes, Rizzo was in the wrong on the aforementioned slide into catcher Elias Diaz, just as he was last year, when he slid into Austin Hedges. I don’t have anything substantial to add to Edwards’ detailed breakdown of both plays, except to say that the three-time All-Star is going to wear the black hat for a spell as one of baseball’s villains. Perhaps he’s unpopular at the moment, but one play shouldn’t prevent us from noticing the other 99.9% of his season.

Though he homered off the Marlins’ Jose Urena in his second plate appearance on Opening Day, Rizzo went just 3-for-28 with a walk in the season’s first six games. After a bout of lower back tightness forced him to the bench for three straight games, the 28-year-old first baseman was placed on the disabled list for the first time in his career. He took an 0-fer in his return on April 17 against the Cardinals, and while he collected three hits in his second game back, the slump persisted. He finished April hitting a ghastly .149/.259/.189 for an NL-low 32 wRC+ in 85 plate appearances. The homer off Urena was his only extra-base hit for the March/April period (which I’ll hereafter refer to just as “April”), and he walked just four times (4.7%) while striking out 15 times (17.5%) — that from a player who walked more than he struck out last year (13.2% to 13.0%).

Inserted into the leadoff spot by manager Joe Maddon in an attempt to jump-start a flagging offense that had scored just 13 runs in its previous six games, Rizzo flipped the calendar to May in dramatic fashion, homering on the first pitch he saw from the Rockies’ Jon Gray on May 1. He homered again versus the Rockies the next day, and added another, against the Cardinals, on May 5. After an 0-for-5 on May 6, he entered Wednesday having reached base safely in 18 of his last 19 games, with four more homers and an active 11-game hitting streak.

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Gleyber Torres and the Yankees’ Pursuit of the Team Homer Record

When the Yankees promoted Gleyber Torres in late April, they envisioned him helping them on both sides of the ball, replacing an underwhelming Ronald Torreyes/Tyler Wade platoon that was admittedly nothing more than a stopgap, a temporary solution to an infield logjam. Even so, they probably didn’t expect the kind of power outburst that Torres has provided. After going homerless in his first 12 games, the 21-year-old rookie second baseman has clubbed eight homers in his most recent 15. His total leads the team in the month of May — and that’s a team on pace to break the major-league record for home runs in a season.

Though he’s listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Torres did not show a ton of in-game power coming up through the minors. His season high of 11 homers was set in 2016, when he was 19 years old and playing at the High-A stops of the Cubs and Yankees. To be fair, with seven homers in 55 games last year, he probably would have surpassed that total had he not torn his left UCL and required season-ending Tommy John surgery in June. The prospect hounds at Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both graded his power as a 55 (above average), with the latter suggesting 20-plus homers annually; our own Kiley McDaniel graded his raw power at 55/60 (present/future) and his game power at 40/55. The 55 is here, at the very least.

From Baseball Prospectus senior prospect writer Jarrett Seidler:

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/24/18

12:02
Jay Jaffe: Hey hey, folks!  Welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. As I’m less than 24 hours away from flying solo with a 21-month-old toddler who can channel the Antichrist, i’ll be cutting this a bit shorter than usual so that I can figure out which whiskey will knock her out the longest. And with that, let’s get to the questions…

12:02
John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Jay! Shine thy light upon this chat!! Grace us with thy wisdom!!!
Is it possible after Mariano and eventually Mussina and (possibly) Schilling that we may not see another pitcher inducted into the Hall until Verlander??

12:05
Jay Jaffe: The late Roy Halladay is eligible for the first time this year, and I think he’s got a chance to get elected, if not this year then soon. Lee Smith will be eligible for the first time on the Today’s Game ballot, and given that he broke 50% on the writers’ ballot before, you have to figure he’s got a shot in that format. But those two and the three you mentioned might be the only pitchers who get in until somebody currently active, and as I noted last week, Verlander is pretty much at the head of the pack now given his age and recent dominance.

12:06
Dave: Howdy!  Robinson Cano seemed like an eventual shoo-in for the HOF before his PED-related suspension.  What are his chances now?

12:07
Jay Jaffe: I’d say they’re pretty low, but we’ll see how the voters handle Alex Rodriguez when he becomes eligible in 2022. We’ve yet to see a previously PED-suspended player top 23.8%.

12:08
bonnie: If you were casting a baseball flavored remake of Space Jam, who would be your star and who would you pick to make up the MonStars?

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Phil Hughes and the Sobering History of Thoracic Outlet Injuries

The Twins designated Phil Hughes for assignment on Monday, bringing to an apparent end the 31-year-old righty’s five-year run with the team and perhaps marking the end of his 12-year big league career. On a superficial level, his is a tale of a big-money contract gone wrong, as the Minnesota media — which knows red meat when it sees it, as fan perception of Joe Mauer’s long decline phase attests — was quick to take note of the team’s $22.6 million remaining salary commitment. On a deeper level, Hughes’ tenure with the team is a reminder of the fragility of pitchers’ bodies in general, and the ravages of thoracic outlet syndrome, for which Hughes underwent surgery not once but twice. The annals of such surgeries feature few happy endings.

Hughes had thrown just 12 innings this year, allowing four home runs while being pummeled for a 6.75 ERA and a 7.62 FIP. After starting the year on the disabled list due to an oblique strain, he returned on April 22 and failed to escape the fourth inning in either of his two starts. Sent to the bullpen, he made five appearances, the last three each separated by one day of rest. While his average fastball velocity (90.4 mph according to Pitch Info) was back up to where it was in 2015, his last reasonably healthy season, it sounds as though manager Paul Molitor felt hamstrung when it came to finding situations in which to use him.

“I guess it was somewhat comparable to almost a Rule 5 situation where you’re trying to find the right spots, and they were few and far between,” Molitor told reporters on Monday night.

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Mike Trout Is Now an Average Hall of Famer

Mike Trout, pictured here, is a popular American athlete.
(Photo: Ian D’Andrea)

The Angels have struggled recently, losing seven out of 10 games to the Twins, Astros, and Rays and falling from a tie atop the AL West to 3.5 games back. Over the weekend, though, Mike Trout did something special. While going 3-for-8 with a double, a pair of homers, and four walks in 12 plate appearances against Tampa Bay, he pushed his seasonal WAR (Baseball-Reference flavor) to 4.0 and his career WAR to 58.2. With that, he reached the JAWS standard for center fielders, the average of each Hall of Fame center fielder’s career WAR and his seven-year peak WAR.

Mike Trout is two-and-a-half months shy of his 27th birthday.

Mike Trout has played six full seasons and parts of two others — roughly a quarter apiece — in the majors.

Mike Trout has not played long enough to be eligible for the Hall of Fame.

Mike Trout is very, very, very good at baseball.

You probably knew most of the above, qualitatively if not down to the first decimal place, and after six-plus years of reading about his feats at the plate, on the bases and in the field, you might be somewhat jaded as to his exploits. Right now, he might not even the most popular Los Angeles Angel thanks to the virtually unprecedented two-way prowess of Shohei Ohtani, the Most Interesting Man in the World. Trout, aside from his baseball excellence and his earnest fascination with meteorology, is not that interesting, much to the chagrin of those who fret about Major League Baseball’s lack of a Lebron James-level Face of the Game.

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Yu Darvish and the Good Fastball

Yu Darvish has gotten off to a rocky start with the Cubs, and for the better part of 23 excruciating minutes on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati, the 31-year-old righty’s struggles appeared to be more of the same. Facing the NL’s worst team, and having failed to last five innings in either of his two previous starts this month, Darvish needed 39 pitches to escape the first inning. Fortunately for the Cubs, he avoided a meltdown and more or less dominated over his final five innings, notching his first win as a Cub and perhaps turning a corner.

Darvish entered the game sporting a 5.56 ERA and 5.12 FIP in his seven previous starts with Chicago, totaling just 33 innings, fewer than five per turn. He had been chased with one out in the fifth inning in his March 31 debut against the Marlins and was pulled from the fifth in three of his next five starts, the exceptions being a pair of six-inning, one-run outings against the Brewers. On May 7, the day before he was to make his first start following a three-homer, six-run outing against the Rockies — a start that drew boos from the Wrigley Field crowd — the Cubs placed him on the disabled list with parainfluenza virus.

The timing of Darvish’s return drew scrutiny from the hot-take-osphere, as manager Joe Maddon could have started him against the Braves at home on May 14, a makeup game for an earlier rainout, but instead opted to give him “one extra day” and start him against the same opponent in Atlanta a day later. Maddon dismissed the notion that the team had a potentially hostile Wrigley Field crowd in mind, but Darvish’s departure after four relatively sharp innings and only 61 pitches added fuel to the fire, at least until the manager revealed that the pitcher departed due to a calf cramp. Nonetheless, the perception of Darvish as mentally soft is in danger of taking root in Chicago, bad news for a pitcher who’s just one-quarter of the way through the first season of a six-year, $126 million deal, even one who owns the kind of career numbers — a 3.50 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 11.0 strikeouts per nine — that testify to his talent and outstanding stuff.

So it felt like a lot was riding on Sunday’s start against the Reds, and it didn’t go well — not to begin, at least. A six-pitch walk to leadoff hitter Alex Blandino was followed by a six-pitch foul out to catcher by Eugenio Suarez and then a single by Joey Votto on the fifth pitch. Seven pitches later, Darvish hit Scooter Gennett in the left foot with a 91 mph cutter, loading the bases. While he tidily ended a four-pitch encounter with Adam Duvall via a strikeout on a high 95 mph fastball, the Reds got on the board when Scott Schebler hit a hot grounder — with an exit velocity of 100 mph, the fastest he allowed all day — to Javier Baez on Darvish’s seventh pitch, a ball that the shortstop could only knock down. Infield single. After a visit from pitching coach Jim Hickey, with the bases still loaded, Darvish managed to put the inning to to rest by inducing Tucker Barnhart to foul out to third baseman Ian Happ, limiting the damage to one run.

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Justin Verlander Finds Another Gear

Justin Verlander had himself a night in Anaheim on Wednesday, throwing his first complete-game shutout since August 26, 2015 and becoming the 33rd pitcher to notch 2,500 strikeouts. What’s more, he did it in a game where the Astros’ sole possession of first place in the AL West was on the line. It’s just the latest chapter of the now 35-year-old righty’s rebirth, one that has returned him to the upper echelon of the game’s starters and positioned him for a run at the Hall of Fame. The pitcher famous for finding another gear with his fastball late in the game has done just that with his career.

Verlander collected his milestone strikeout against none other than Shohei Ohtani, who foul-tipped a 96 mph heater in the ninth inning:

That was one of seven strikeouts Verlander notched on the night, and yes, he was still Bringing It late. He threw his six fastest four-seamers of the night, and nine of his top 11, in the eighth or ninth innings, all 97.5 mph or above according to Brooks Baseball.

Three of his strikeouts came against Ohtani (the second silver sombrero of his brief MLB career), who while avoiding a strikeout in the fourth inning — and even getting the call on this 87 mph slider — nonetheless wound up with his ankles repurposed into a pretzel, with Verlander supplying the mustard:

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/17/18

12:01
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon/morning and welcome to another edition of my weekly Thursday chats.

First, some housekeeping. In last week’s discussions of favorite sandwiches in NYC, I mourned the loss of the fried chicken sandwich from Van Horn Sandwich Shop, but I neglected to mention the loss of a sandwich that trumped even that: the Italian at Bierkraft, a Park Slope specialty beer shop that also did great subs. For meats, theirs had house roasted  ham, hot sopressata, proscuitto di Parma and something called petit jesu, which is a garlic-and-red-wine salami that looks like this https://stinkybklyn.com/shop/charcuterie/petit-jesu/. Also arugula, tomato, onion, roasted red pepper, balsamic and EVOO.

12:02
Jay Jaffe: That and a pint or bottle of any craft beer was a reliable go-for dinner or a picnic lunch back when my wife lived nearby. And per my complaint about not being able to get a decent Italian sandwich nearby — no, i’m not paying $18 f’ing dollars to the place with 150 different combos at Dekalb Market, edit your damn menu — it’s because none will ever measure up to that one.

(and yes, I do have a jpg of a menu for a place that went out of business three years ago. What’s weird about that?)

Accountability about sandwich remembrances is what I’m here for.

12:02
Marshall: Would you vote for Chase Utley for HoF?

12:04
Jay Jaffe: Hell yes. Hugely underrated player because he was not only an exceptional hitter but fielder and baserunner as well. Ninth in JAWS at 2B https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml but I think he’s gonna get burned by the Rule of 2,000 as he needs 126 more hits and I’m just not sure he gets enough playing time to get there.

12:05
John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Jay! Enlighten thou with thy wisdom across the chativerse!! With the way front offices have devalued aging veterans and the prominence of players increasing their launch angle at the expense of contact, could a 3000 hit player become an impossibility in our lifetime like the 300 win pitcher has become??

12:08
Jay Jaffe: Well, we’re probably going to see Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano reach 3,000 within a few years, but after that, it could be awhile, as nobody active has more than ~2,100 and the guys that do (Markakis and Reyes) are 34 and 35. But I do think somebody like Altuve and of course Trout will have shots at it, if they stay healthy. We’ll have more of ’em than we do 300 win guys, for sure

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Losing Pollock Isn’t the D-backs’ Only Problem

Although the Diamondbacks snapped a six-game losing streak on Tuesday night via a 2-1 come-from-behind victory over the Brewers at Chase Field, an 8-2 drubbing on Wednesday means they’ve now lost seven of eight and 10 of 13 to fall to 25-18. Particularly with the loss of A.J. Pollock to a fractured left thumb, the NL West leaders have begun to look quite vulnerable. Their offense has ground to a halt, eking out just 2.53 runs per game this month, they’ve got an increasing number of rotation concerns, and according to our Playoff Odds report, they’ve lost more ground over the past week than any other team.

The big news is the loss of Pollock, who rolled his glove hand awkwardly after coming up empty in a dive for a drive off the bat of Tyler Saladino on Monday night. Pollock suffered an avulsion fracture, meaning one that occurred where a tendon or ligament attaches to bone. Fortunately, he doesn’t need surgery. Adding insult to injury, however, Saladino was able to round the bases for an inside-the-park home run in what turned out to be a 7-2 defeat.

The shame of it is that Pollock — who, after a breakout 2015, missed most of 2016 with a fractured right elbow and a good chunk of 2017 with a groin strain — appeared to be on his way to an impressive season, hitting .293/.349/.620 with 11 homers, a 156 wRC+, and 2.3 WAR. As Craig Edwards noted just last week, the 30-year-old center fielder had benefited from a more aggressive approach and some tweaks to his swing, sacrificing some amount of contact for power. Both his slugging percentage and WAR lead the National League, while his home-run total ranks third, and his wRC+ sixth.

As Arizona Central’s Nick Piecoro pointed out, Pollock is the third Diamondback to miss significant time this season due to an injury sustained while diving for a ball, after right fielder Steven Souza Jr. and third baseman Jake Lamb. Souza suffered a right pectoral strain in late March — a spring-training game — and didn’t make his season debut until May 3. Lamb sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder while going for a foul ball on April 2 and then battled a bout of inflammation while rehabbing. He’s finally on track to return this weekend.

For as much as manager Torey Lovullo may have praised each of the injured players’ maximum effort, the losses of Souza (who posted a 120 wRC+ for Tampa Bay last year) and Lamb (111 for Arizona) have contributed to the Diamondbacks’ offensive struggles, and that of Pollock figures to as well. The team’s .220 batting average ranks dead last in the majors, their .300 on-base percentage just two points out of last, their .380 slugging percentage is 28th, and their 84 wRC+ 27th. Amid this month’s offensive drought, they’ve slipped to 13th in the league in scoring at 3.95 runs per game. Thanks to the improbably solid work of Daniel Descalso, the owner of a career 83 wRC+, the team’s third basemen have combined for a solid .242/.333/.425 (106 wRC+) line, but between Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings, and Souza, who’s 6-for-39 since returning, the team’s right fielders have “hit” a combined .166/.236/.276 for a 37 wRC+. All three need to find their strokes, as Dyson and Owings figure to cover for Pollock’s absence. Whatever gains Owings (.202/.266/.316, 56 wRC+) and shortstop Nick Ahmed (.213/.275/.412, 82 wRC+) made early in the season via what Piecoro described as a team-wide philosophical shift to a hitting approach based upon pitch tunnels appear to have vanished.

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Cano’s PED Suspension Resonates Beyond This Season

Tuesday was supposed to be the day that Robinson Cano learned of the prognosis regarding the fractured fifth metacarpal he suffered on Sunday. Instead, both he and the Mariners suffered a bigger blow, as MLB suspended the 35-year-old second baseman for 80 games for violating baseball’s joint drug agreement. The news is quite a shock, to say the least, given Cano’s standing within the game. It’s also quite a coincidence given his injury.

Cano will not be paid during the suspension, which means that he stands to lose about half of his $24 million salary. If the Mariners were to make the playoffs — something they haven’t done since 2001, giving them the longest postseason drought in major North American sports — he would be ineligible to participate. He can, however, serve the suspension while on the disabled list, a loophole that should have been closed a long time ago but for some reason has not been. Edinson Volquez (suspended in 2010) and Freddy Galvis (suspended in 2012) are among the players who served their PED suspensions while on the DL. Cano will be eligible to return for the Mariners’ 121st game of the season, on August 14.

According to MLB, Cano tested positive for furosemide, a diuretic better known as Lasix. Via WebMD, the drug can be used to treat high blood pressure, fluid retention and swelling caused by congestive heart failure, liver disease, kidney disease, and other medical conditions.

Via a statement by Cano issued through the Major League Baseball Players Association, Cano claimed that the substance was given to him by a licensed doctor to treat an unspecified medical ailment. (MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that it was an episode of high blood pressure.)

Here’s the statement in full:

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