Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it’s been so long — on-site coverage, late nights, and quick turnarounds have made it hard to keep up here.
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Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’m glad we’ve been treated to some awesome playoff games and series. Last night’s ALCS Game 7 was a classic and a heartbreaker. As happy as I am for the Blue Jays fans in my life, i’m gutted for the Mariners fans — a group that includes colleagues and family.
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Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Vladimir Guerrero’s postseason for the ages https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-postseason-for-the-…. his wRC+ this October slipped from 302 to 280 during last night’s win, dropping from 2nd since the start of division play in 1969 to 4th. Still impressive!
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Jay Jaffe: Anway, let’s get on with the show
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sodo mojo: I feel like watching Naylor in the playoffs he has to be a priority signing for the Mariners this offseason do you think 3 years 60M gets it done or is he going to get a 4 year deal given his age?
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Jay Jaffe: Heading into his age-29 season, coming off a very good season and the October showcase that he’s had, he has every reason to seek a deal longer than three years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s after something much longer than that. I do believe the Mariners will make him a priority, but they shouldn’t wimp out. They were so close to that elusive World Series trip this year, and going back to skimping on quality players is going to reduce their chances of getting to the next step.
In his first postseason since signing a 14-year, $500 million extension, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has powered the Blue Jays to within one win of their first trip to the World Series since 1993. The 26-year-old slugger continued his October heroics during Sunday night’s ALCS Game 6 in Toronto, helping the Blue Jays stave of elimination at the hands of the Mariners by clubbing his third home run of the series and sixth of the postseason while also displaying a key bit of baserunning savvy. Guerrero has rebounded from a season-ending slump to put up some absolutely astronomical numbers this fall.
Sunday night’s game didn’t start out that way for Guerrero. As they had done in Games 1 and 2 in Toronto, and Game 5 in Seattle, the Mariners kept him from doing major damage through his first two plate appearances against starter Logan Gilbert. In the first inning, with Nathan Lukes on first, Guerrero chased a low slider and grounded softly into a forceout. In the second, with the Blue Jays having rallied for two runs and with George Springer on first, he hit a scorching 116-mph grounder to the left side, where third baseman Eugenio Suárez made a diving stop, then threw to second from his knees to end the inning.
You could be forgiven for having thought that Max Scherzer had reached the end of the line. For the second season in a row, the three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer missed significant time due to injuries, and when he was available, he struggled like never before. The 41-year-old righty put up the majors’ highest ERA in the first inning (12.96), had issues with tipping pitches, and after allowing 25 runs in his final 25 innings, missed the cut for the Division Series roster. Yet on Thursday, with the Blue Jays trailing the Mariners two games to one in the ALCS, Scherzer turned back the clock, holding Seattle to just two runs over 5 2/3 innings while an aggressive offense chased Mariners starter Luis Castillo in the third inning. With Andrés Giménez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both homering for the second straight night, the Blue Jays won 8-2 to even the series.
Scherzer, who had last pitched in a game on September 24, added to the Mad Max lore, displaying his legendarily competitive fire in the fifth inning. With two outs, a runner on first base and Toronto leading 5-1, manager John Schneider went to the mound to talk to Scherzer, who growled and chased the skipper away, struck out Randy Arozarena on a curveball in the dirt, then retired two batters in the sixth before finally getting the hook.
“I’ve been waiting for that all year, for Max to yell at me on the mound,” said Schneider afterwards. “It was awesome, I thought he was going to kill me.” Read the rest of this entry »
Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images and Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Unhittable starting pitching has carried the Dodgers through the Wild Card and Division Series and staked them to a 2-0 lead over the Brewers in the National League Championship Series. But as Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have made the the biggest headlines, some of their elite hitters such as Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith have scuffled. Meanwhile Enrique Hernández and Teoscar Hernández (no relation) have picked up the slack, recalling their contributions during last year’s championship run; their efforts even bookended the fateful game-tying five-run rally in the World Series clincher against the Yankees. After subpar regular seasons married by injuries, both have rediscovered their groove in October.
At American Family Field on Tuesday night, the dynamic duo shone once again during the Dodgers’ 5-1 victory in Game 2. With the team trailing 1-0 in the second inning following Jackson Chourio’s leadoff homer off Yamamoto, Teoscar got ahead 3-0 against Freddy Peralta, then pounced on the next pitch thrown in the zone, a 3-2 hanging curveball, and demolished it for a towering solo home run — 105.9 mph off the bat, with a 39-degree launch angle — to left field.
Until the Mariners traded for the Diamondbacks’ Josh Naylor on July 24, they had a first base problem. For the second season in a row, subpar first-half production from their first sackers threatened to derail their bid for a playoff spot, and while they hadn’t shied away from addressing the issue last summer, they ended up missing a Wild Card berth by a single win nonetheless. In his first big swing at upgrading their roster this summer, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto dealt for Naylor, and since then, he’s proven to be one of their most reliable players — not just at the plate, but on the bases and in the field as well. He’s shown off all facets of his game during this postseason, including in Monday night’s 10-3 ALCS Game 2 win over the Blue Jays, during which he notched his third three-hit effort in the past four games.
After collecting the hit that helped the Mariners clinch a playoff berth — a bases-loaded, eighth-inning double off the Rockies’ Victor Vodnik on September 23 — and closing the regular season with a 12-game hitting streak, Naylor’s October actually began inauspiciously. He went hitless in the Mariners’ first three Division Series games against the Tigers, with a first-inning walk against Game 1 starter Troy Melton his only positive result across a stretch of 14 plate appearances; he just missed hitting one out against Melton in the fourth inning of that game, a 108.2-mph drive hauled in just a few feet in front of the right-center field wall. Only once during the regular season had he gone hitless in three straight games, that from June 1–4 while a member of the Diamondbacks. One of the few highlights from his more recent dry spell was his unassisted double play to seal the Mariners’ Game 3 victory, when he speared a liner off the bat of Parker Meadows, then doubled Andy Ibáñez off first.
Naylor started filling in the hit column with a 3-for-4 afternoon in the Mariners’ 9-3 loss in Game 4, doubling off Casey Mize and scoring a run in the second inning, then singling off Tyler Holton and coming around to score in the fourth, at which point the Mariners led 2-0. He pulled off another unassisted double play in the fourth, this time off a Colt Keithone-hopper that caught Gleyber Torres retreating to first base. Alas, by the time Naylor led off the eighth with a single off Melton, Seattle trailed 8-3. Too little, too late. Read the rest of this entry »
Jorge Polanco played the hero on Friday night, ending the epic Division Series Game 5 with an RBI single in the 15th inning off the Tigers’ Tommy Kahnle. Two nights later, in the American League Championship Series opener in Toronto, Polanco added to his October highlight reel with a pair of late-inning RBI singles against Blue Jays relievers, the first of which gave Seattle the lead. The switch-hitting second baseman wasn’t the only Mariner who came up big, as Bryce Miller tossed six strong innings on three days of rest, Cal Raleigh clubbed a game-tying solo homer, and three relievers turned in perfect innings as the Mariners took Game 1 in Toronto, 3-1.
In marked contrast to the four-hour and 58-minute Division Series finale that allowed Seattle to advance, this was a comparatively concise and fast-paced game, completed in two hours and 48 minutes. After throwing 209 pitches to the Tigers on Friday night, the Mariners mercifully needed just an even 100 pitches to dispatch the Blue Jays while giving up just two hits.
For as compelling a matchup as an ALCS pitting the two 1977 expansion teams — one seeking its first World Series berth in 32 years, the other its first-ever pennant — the pairing of Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman against Miller appeared to be a mismatch based on their respective arcs. Coming off a strong regular season and a stellar Division Series Game 1 start against the Yankees, and with seven days of rest under his belt, Gausman appeared to have quite the advantage on Miller, who scuffled this year due to injuries, took an early exit in his Division Series Game 4 start against the Tigers, and started on Sunday only because ALDS Game 2 starter Luis Castillo and Game 3 starter Logan Gilbert were both called upon in relief during the extra innings of Game 5. Read the rest of this entry »
NEW YORK — Ernie Clement simply wore out Yankees pitchers during the Division Series. After collecting three hits in Game 2 — including a two-run homer off Max Fried that opened the scoring — in a Blue Jays win, then four more hits in their Game 3 defeat, the 29-year-old infielder sparked rallies in Game 4 with a pair of singles that led to the go-ahead run in the fifth inning and then two more runs in the seventh, helping Toronto break the game open. Backed by opener Louis Varland and seven other relievers who combined to hold the Yankees to six hits and two runs, the Blue Jays bounced their AL East rivals with a 5-2 victory in Game 4.
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.529/.550/1.059) and Daulton Varsho (.438/.471/1.000) were the Blue Jays’ heaviest hitters in the series, combining for five homers and 13 RBI, Clement — who spent time at all four infield positions this year and started games at both second and third base in this series — hit .643/.625/.929 himself while scoring and driving in five runs apiece. Though he showed a wide platoon split during the regular season, producing a 146 wRC+ (.326/.351/.549) against lefties and 75 wRC+ (.254/.295/.327) against righties, both of his Game 4 singles were off fireballing righty Cam Schlittler, who was very good if not nearly as dominant as he had been against the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series finale.
“I think Ernie Clement has made everyone aware of how good he is,” said manager John Schneider after the game. “It’s been like that the whole year for the bottom part of our lineup. You try to navigate it to where guys can put the ball in play, guys can get on base for guys at the top. Read the rest of this entry »
NEW YORK — The ovation that Devin Williams received from the crowd of 47,399 at Yankee Stadium as he departed in the eighth inning on Tuesday night after recording five crucial outs — his longest outing in more than two years — did not go unnoticed. “It’s nice to feel appreciated sometimes. It was definitely a lot better than what I’ve heard for much of the year,” said the 31-year-old righty in the wake of the Yankees’ dramatic 9-6 comeback victory over the Blue Jays in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. Acquired from Milwaukee last December, the two-time All-Star was supposed to serve as the closer of the defending AL champions, but early struggles bumped him out of that role, and he was booed vociferously. Over the past month, he’s tried to salvage his season, and with the Yankees in danger of being swept by their division rivals, he was one of five relievers who held the Blue Jays scoreless over the final 6 2/3 innings while the Bronx Bombers bashed out eight unanswered runs, six of them against Toronto’s bullpen.
When starter Carlos Rodón left Game 3 with one out in the third inning, the Yankees trailed 6-1 and appeared perilously close to being eliminated. They quickly clawed their way back against a wobbly Shane Bieber, however, chasing the Blue Jays’ starter with two outs in the third with the score 6-3. From there, a unit that was torched for 14 runs in 10 1/3 innings in Games 1 and 2 in Toronto won the battle of the bullpens. While Fernando Cruz, Camilo Doval, Tim Hill, Williams, and David Bednar quieted an offense that had been humming on all cylinders, four straight Blue Jays relievers allowed runs, with Louis Varland serving up both Aaron Judge’s game-tying three-run homer in the fourth inning and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s go-ahead solo shot in the fifth. Now, while the Yankees will call upon Wild Card Series hero Cam Schlittler to start Thursday’s Game 4, the Blue Jays — gulp — counter with a bullpen game started by Varland, a development that could help send this series back to Toronto.
“That’s just what’s on the table,” said Williams of the bullpen’s collective mindset given the situation when Rodón departed. “We really don’t have any other option but to put up zeros and give our guys a chance to take the lead.” Read the rest of this entry »
The Yankees got absolutely thrashed by the Blue Jays during the first two games of the Division Series, losing Saturday’s opener 10-1 and then again on Sunday, 13-7. To be fair, the first game was tight right up to the seventh-inning stretch, after which the Blue Jays expanded their 2-1 lead with four runs apiece in the seventh and eighth innings, but by the same token, Game 2 wasn’t even as close as that six-run margin suggests. The Yankees not only trailed 12-0 through five innings, but also were no-hit by Trey Yesavage through 5 1/3 innings before breaking through against reliever Justin Bruihl in the sixth. Now, for the second time in less than a week, they’ll turn to Carlos Rodón to face an AL East rival with their season on the line.
The 32-year-old Rodón started Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, one night after Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapmanstifled the Yankees in the opener. Rodón held the Red Sox to three runs in six-plus innings, getting by with more than a little help from his friends. He retired the first six batters he faced before running into trouble in the third inning. Jarren Duran, the lone lefty in the lineup, singled, then Ceddanne Rafaela worked a walk, with Rodón exacerbating the situation with a throwing error on switch-hitter Nick Sogard’s sacrifice bunt. Though he recovered to strike out lefty-masher Rob Refsnyder, both runners scored on a sharp single by Trevor Story. Rodón escaped further damage when he induced Alex Bregman to ground into a double play that began with an acrobatic spin move by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr.
After a clean top of the fifth, Rodón was briefly staked to a 3-2 lead thanks to Aaron Judge’s RBI single, but it proved short-lived. Rodón fell behind Story 2-0 to lead off the fifth, then threw him a meatball, a 95.2-mph four-seamer that ended up in the middle of the strike zone and was hammered 381 feet to left field for a game-tying home run. A four-pitch walk to Bregman put him on the ropes, but he recovered by retiring Romy Gonzalez on a popout, then getting Carlos Narváez to ground into an around-the-horn double play. With his pitch count at a reasonable 82, manager Aaron Boone sent Rodón back out to start the seventh, but he walked Nate Eaton on four pitches, threw a wild pitch that sent him to second, then grazed Duran with a 3-0 pitch. Reliever Fernando Cruz managed to clean up the mess without further damage, aided by a stellar diving stop by Chisholm on a Masataka Yoshida infield single that, had it not been stopped, probably would have plated both Duran and Eaton. The Yankees scored what proved to be the decisive run in the eighth, when Chisholm worked a walk against Garrett Whitlock, then raced home on a long single into the right field corner by Austin Wells. Read the rest of this entry »
NEW YORK — In just the second winner-take-all postseason matchup started by two rookies — in one of the sport’s most storied rivalries, no less — 24-year-old Yankees righty Cam Schlittler utterly dominated the Red Sox lineup on Thursday, striking out 12 without a walk while scattering just five hits over eight scoreless innings. His opposite number, 23-year-old lefty Connelly Early, matched Schlittler zero for zero through the first three frames, making up with deception what he lacked in velocity, at least relative to the New York starter. Alas, a mistake by the Red Sox defense opened the door to trouble in the fourth inning, as five of the first six Yankees reached base en route to a 4-0 lead. Boston manager Alex Cora, who pulled starter Brayan Bello after 28 pitches in Game 2, left Early to throw 33 pitches in the fourth inning alone. That outburst was more than enough, as the Yankees eliminated the Red Sox from the postseason for the first time since 2003, when current manager Aaron Boone hit a walk-off home run off Tim Wakefield.
This was the sixth time the two AL East rivals squared off in the postseason, with the Red Sox riding a series winning streak that included the 2004 American League Championship Series, the 2018 AL Division Series, and the 2021 AL Wild Card Game. The only other time two rookie starters met in a winner-take-all game was in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS, when the Dodgers’ Dustin May and the Braves’ Ian Anderson went head to head, though May pitched just one inning and Anderson three, and neither figured in the decision.
The two starters in this one began the season in Double-A, and didn’t figure to contribute substantially this season. Schlittler joined a banged-up Yankees rotation on July 9 and pitched brilliantly during the second half, overpowering batters with a four-seam fastball that averaged 98.0 mph as well as an effective cutter. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.74 FIP with a 27.6% strikeout rate in 14 starts, and was an easy choice for Boone to start Game 3 following Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. By contrast, Early only debuted on September 9, and pitched brilliantly (2.33 ERA, 0.91 FIP) but might not have made the postseason roster — or at least would not have started — had Lucas Giolito not been sidelined by elbow trouble. While Garrett Crochet’s 7 2/3 innings in Game 1 required Cora to use only closer Aroldis Chapman in relief, the manager didn’t like what he saw from Bello in Game 2 and pulled him with one out in the third, leaving him to call upon six relievers, one of whom (Garrett Whitlock) threw a season-high 47 pitches and gave up the winning run. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it’s been so long — on-site coverage, late nights, and quick turnarounds have made it hard to keep up here.
