For as strong as his 2023 campaign had been, and for as well positioned as he was in this winter’s market, Cody Bellinger‘s free agency was always hampered by questions of sustainability. His debut season with the Cubs followed two unsettlingly bad years with the Dodgers, and the metrics underlying last season’s resurgence were comparatively modest relative to his production, raising the possibility if not the likelihood of regression. In light of those issues, even as he placed third on our Top 50 Free Agents list heading into the offseason and reportedly sought a contract as high as $250 million, it seemed quite likely he’d come away with considerably less. He did, agreeing to return to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal, one that contains opt-outs after the first two seasons, and one that was still pending a physical as of this writing.

Effectively, this is a pillow contract, negotiated by the agent who created the term, Scott Boras. The 28-year-old Bellinger will get the opportunity to show that his 2023 performance was no fluke, with two chances before his age-30 season to secure a much bigger payday. He’s guaranteed $30 million in 2024, with salaries of $30 million in ’25 and $20 million in ’26 if he hasn’t exercised his opt-outs, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Bellinger came to the Cubs after an eventful 10-year run in the Dodgers’ organization, one that began when the son of former utilityman Clay Bellinger was drafted in the fourth round out of an Arizona high school in 2013. He hit 39 home runs while winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2017, and smacked 47 homers two years later while taking home the NL MVP award. His timely hitting and spectacular fielding during the 2020 postseason helped the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988, but one of those timely hits precipitated his fall. Celebrating what proved to be the decisive home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS against the Braves, the exuberant Bellinger dislocated his right (non-throwing) shoulder after bashing forearms with teammate Enrique Hernández. He underwent arthroscopic labrum surgery after the World Series, started slowly in spring training, and then in the fourth game of the season suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula, knocking him out for eight weeks. Unable to find his rhythm as he recovered from both shoulder and leg issues, he hit a gruesome .165/.240/.302 (47 wRC+) with -1.0 WAR in 350 plate appearances, though he showed signs of life during the playoffs when he adopted a shortened swing with lower hand placement; he hit .353/.436/.471 (146 wRC+) across 39 plate appearances in 12 postseason games. While he got off to a solid start in 2022, he couldn’t maintain it despite endlessly tinkering with his swing. Exceptional defense in center field kept him in the lineup, but he hit just .210/.265/.389 (83 wRC+) with 1.8 WAR, and was nontendered following the season.

Less than three weeks later, Bellinger agreed to a one-year deal with the Cubs, one that paid him $12.5 million for 2023 with a $1 million bonus for winning NL Comeback Player of the Year honors (which he did) and a $5 million buyout on a $25 million mutual option for ’24. He declined his end of the option as well as the $20.325 million qualifying offer he received, and entered the market as the top free agent position player, behind only pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on our list.

For Bellinger, last year’s change of scenery proved to be just what the doctor ordered. Reuniting with Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly and assistant Johnny Washington, both of whom he had worked with in the Dodgers’ system, Bellinger focused on adjusting his mechanics, particularly with regards to his hand placement and back hip, allowing him to use his lower body better. He further adapted his approach by pulling the ball with less frequency than at any time since his rookie season, and shortening his swing with two strikes to focus on contact. The result was his best season since 2019, as he hit .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 games — he missed nearly four weeks with a left knee contusion — while cutting his strikeout rate from 27.3% to 15.6%. Coupled with solid defense in center field, his 4.1 WAR tied for 20th in the NL and was the second-best showing of his career.

Bellinger’s intent is worth noting when digging into his underlying metrics, as he sacrificed some power in exchange for contact en route to the lowest exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate of his career:

Bellinger’s barrel rate placed in just the 27th percentile, his exit velo in the 22nd percentile, and his hard-hit rate in the 10th percentile. He outdid his expected slugging percentage by 91 points, and his expected wOBA by 43 points; both gaps ranked third in the majors among batting title qualifiers (502 PA). On the other hand, his .279 AVG and .312 wOBA with two strikes ranked second and seventh in the majors, thanks in large part to his consistency in collecting hits despite soft contact, a topic that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and our own Esteban Rivera both investigated.

All of that created something of a puzzle for Bellinger’s suitors — most prominently the Blue Jays (considered the favorites to sign him as of mid-December) and Giants, with the Mariners and Yankees also connected to him via rumors. Bellinger’s deal always seemed unlikely to approach the hot air of the $200 million-plus Borasphere, but in our Top 50 exercise, Ben Clemens projected him to get a six-year, $150 million contract, and our crowdsource expected a six-year, $144 million one. Other outlets went even higher.

As the Blue Jays dragged their feet this winter, the Giants turned to Jung Hoo Lee, and the Cubs refused to act like a large-market team, Bellinger’s anticipated market never fully materialized, with the aforementioned issues undoubtedly playing a part, as well. By ZiPS, he did well to get as much as he did:

ZiPS projects just a three-year, $70 million contract for that forecast, per Dan Szymborski, though perhaps that’s not surprising given that Bellinger has had just one good season out of the last three. Based on the percentile breakdowns, it appears the system gives him only about a 10% to 20% chance of matching or exceeding last year’s performance:

Bellinger probably doesn’t have to match his 2023 numbers to justify opting out, and he does have two chances to decide when to enter the market again. Still, a mediocre 2024 followed by a strong ’25 would probably leave teams with similar questions to the ones they confronted this winter.

As for how he fits into the Cubs, the key word is flexibility. The team already had Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both entering their age-29 seasons and on multi-year deals, set for the outfield corners. Prior to Bellinger’s re-signing, Pete Crow-Armstrong, the 20th-ranked prospect on our Top 100 list, appeared likely to take over as the Chicago’s regular center fielder. A 2020 first-round pick acquired from the Mets in the Javier Báez trade at the ’21 deadline, Crow-Armstrong hit a combined .283/.365/.511 (127 wRC+) in 73 games at Double-A Tennessee and 34 games at Triple-A Iowa. He went just 0-for-14 with three walks and two sacrifice hits in a cup of coffee with the Cubs, though to be fair, he started just three of the 13 games in which he appeared. He’s considered an elite center fielder who’s fearless on the basepaths and should produce at least average power. “If he can plug that hole over time, he’ll be a five-tool superstar,” wrote our prospect team of Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin. “More likely, he’ll have some 20-25 homer seasons amid a ton of strikeouts and a low OBP, with peak years resembling Mike Cameron’s (though almost certainly not to that level of annual consistency).”

Given Crow-Armstrong’s age (he turns 22 on March 25) and modest amount of upper-level experience, it always seemed possible that he would start the season in the minors before rejoining the Cubs. Now it would appear even more likely. If he hits his way back to the majors in a hurry, the Cubs could use him in center field and play Bellinger at first base, where lefty-swinging rookie Michael Busch was slated to be the starter or at least the long half of a platoon with righty Patrick Wisdom. The 26-year-old Busch, no. 84 on our prospect list, is considered a bat-only prospect who last played first base regularly at North Carolina, and who may be better suited to DH duty. Alternately, Bellinger has experience in both left field (315.1 innings, though none since 2018) and right (989 innings, the bulk of them in 2019), and Happ has experience at every defensive position except shortstop and catcher, though he hasn’t played the infield since 2021, when he totaled 36 innings, mostly at second base. Also in the category of moving parts is Christopher Morel, who last year saw time at all three outfield positions plus second base, shortstop, and third base; he was projected to get the bulk of the work at DH but also to be in the third base mix along with Nick Madrigal. Suffice to say that new manager Craig Counsell will have options for how to piece his lineup together, and that a clearer picture may emerge during spring training.

Via our Depth Charts projections, here’s a comparison of how the situation looked before the signing and immediately after, in terms of estimated plate appearances:

In terms of overall playing time, the real loser of the Bellinger deal is Mike Tauchman, a capable center fielder who hit .252/.363/.377 (107 wRC+) last year, with Crow-Armstrong, Madrigal, and Wisdom also losing substantial time. Keep in mind that all of this is based on best guesses just as exhibition season has opened, and before the Cubs have even confirmed the deal. A lot could still change.

Particularly with the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, and Reds each projected to win between 79 and 85 games, the NL Central is expected to be a dogfight. Any impactful addition could be the difference between reaching the postseason — something the Cubs haven’t done since 2020 — and staying home. By bringing back Bellinger, the team has given itself a better shot at playing in October without assuming a huge long-term risk. Bellinger, for his part, gets to return to a comfortable situation with a contending team, while also knowing that he can play his way into a bigger contract. It will be fascinating to see how this all unfolds.

After the trades of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander last summer, Kodai Senga assumed the role of the Mets’ staff ace, and figured to be the team’s Opening Day starter this year. Already, however, the Mets are in the position of having to adjust. A day after Senga missed a team workout due to what was initially described as arm fatigue, president of baseball operations David Stearns revealed that the 31-year-old righty will start the year on the injured list with a shoulder strain. For as tantalizing as the possibility of a free agent addition may be, the team plans to stay in-house to absorb his absence.

In Wednesday’s media session, manager Carlos Mendoza said that after Tuesday’s side session, Senga told Mets trainers he was experiencing arm fatigue, which is hardly uncommon at this time of year as pitchers build up their workloads. This wasn’t the first time this spring that he had reported fatigue, however, and so the Mets sent him for an MRI, which revealed a moderate posterior capsule strain. He’ll be shut down from throwing, but this isn’t an injury that suggests he’ll need surgery. Even so, Stearns would not offer a timeline for his return. “What I can say at this point, comfortably, is we don’t expect Opening Day,” he told reporters on Thursday. “But I do expect him to make a bunch of starts for us this year… Hopefully we caught it early enough that this is just a speedbump.”

While not presented as a worst-case scenario, that’s still pretty vague as far as what Senga might contribute in 2024, and when. If there’s good news, it’s that this isn’t the type of shoulder injury that Kyle Wright and Brandon Woodruff suffered. As Under the Knife’s Will Carroll pointed out, they had anterior capsule tears that required surgical repair, costing them most of 2023 and likely all of this season. Nonetheless, however long Senga is out, the Mets will have a tough time replacing him.

After 11 seasons with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League, Senga joined the Mets on a five-year, $75 million contract. Given his history of pitching only every sixth or seventh day in Japan, the team did its best to provide him a bit of extra rest between starts; only three times did he take a turn on four days of rest, with 17 starts coming on five days, six on six days, and three on more than that. All told, he acquitted himself in impressive fashion, posting a 2.98 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 166.1 innings, making the NL All-Star team, and placing second in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Corbin Carroll and seventh in the Cy Young voting. That ERA ranked second in the league behind Blake Snell’s 2.20, while his 202 strikeouts placed eighth and his 3.4 WAR tied for ninth. Among Japanese-born pitchers who have come stateside, only Hideo Nomo and Yu Darvish had stronger debuts in terms of WAR or strikeouts, with the former totaling 5.2 WAR and 236 K’s for the Dodgers in 1995, while the latter had 4.7 WAR and 221 K’s for the Rangers in 2012.

When Senga joined the Mets, he figured to be the third starter on a contending team behind a pair of three-time Cy Young award winners, but that changed when they traded Scherzer and Verlander. With the Mets’ decision to rein in their payroll — still the majors’ largest in terms of annual salaries ($315 million) and Competitive Balance Tax ($328 million) — this winter, he now fronts a rotation with a much lower ceiling on a team projected to finish around .500. Currently ranked 23rd in projected starting pitcher WAR by our Depth Charts, this group is full of pitchers aspiring to stay healthy, available, and productive for a full season.

The most experienced of the group is 35-year-old lefty José Quintana, who after making at least 31 starts annually from 2013–19 has done so just once in the past three seasons. Last year, his first of a two-year, $26 million deal with the Mets, he was limited to 13 starts by a stress fracture in his rib, one that was revealed to be caused by a benign lesion that required bone graft surgery. He was solid upon his return just after the All-Star break, posting a 3.57 ERA and 3.52 FIP in 75.2 innings. He did a great job of avoiding hard contact, and his sinker was particularly effective, holding hitters to a .198 AVG and .253 SLG in 105 PA. Even if he’s just a five-and-fly guy — he’s averaged less than 5 1/3 innings in each of his last three full seasons (2018, ’19, ’22) — he should provide some welcome stability for the rotation while fulfilling the role of the sage veteran.

The most accomplished of the group is 30-year-old righty Luis Severino, a two-time All-Star who has finished as high as third in the Cy Young voting. But due to shoulder inflammation (2019), Tommy John surgery (2020-21), and a pair of lat strains (2022 and ’23), he’s managed just 40 starts and 209.1 innings over the past five seasons. When he was available last year between a season-opening lat strain and a season-ending oblique strain, he generally struggled, posting a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP in 89.1 innings while serving up a gruesome 2.32 home runs per nine. His four-seam fastball still averaged 96.5 mph, but hitters slugged .680 against it, a problem that may be attributable to his tipping pitches with men on base. Even so, he did have the occasional start that offered hope he could find his way out of such a mess. The Mets signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal on the belief that it’s possible, particularly if he can avoid tipping.

Also tantalizing in terms of velocity is 32-year-old lefty Sean Manaea, who split last season between the bullpen (27 appearances, many of them following an opener) and rotation (10 starts) for the Giants, putting up a 4.40 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 117.2 innings. After spending time at Driveline after the 2022 season, Manaea increased his average four-seam velocity from 91.3 mph to 93.6, and was able to maintain that gain even during his longer outings. He also added a sweeper that held hitters to a .158 AVG and .184 SLG in 42 PA while generating a 36.3% whiff rate. This year, after more work at Driveline, he’s planning to introduce an improved changeup. His existing one held hitters to a .208 AV and .333 SLG in 2023, but generated just an 18.7% whiff rate; with an adjusted grip, he’s hoping to get batters to chase more. He’s also adding a new cutter to serve as a weapon against righties, who hit for a .333 wOBA against him in 2023, compared to the .256 wOBA he allowed to lefties.

The other newcomer from outside the organization is 31-year-old righty Adrian Houser. Acquired from the Brewers on December 20 along with outfielder Tyrone Taylor in a trade that sent righty prospect Coleman Crow to Milwaukee, Houser posted a 4.12 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 111.1 innings last year, making 21 starts and two relief appearances. He didn’t make his season debut until May 7 due to a groin strain, and missed a couple of weeks in late August and early September with elbow inflammation. Houser throws a heavy sinker, generates lots of groundballs, and does a decent job of keeping the ball in the park, though last year’s 1.05 HR/9 was his highest full-season rate since 2019.

Stearns said the battle to replace Senga features Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and José Butto, all of whom have at least one minor league option remaining. By now the 28-year-old Megill is a familiar face, as he’s pitched for the Mets on and off since debuting in June 2021. In fact, he was pressed into duty as the Opening Day starter in 2022, and three weeks later, he threw the first five innings of a combined no-hitter. His 25 starts last year ranked second on the team, but unfortunately, he was erratic to the point of getting sent down to Triple-A Syracuse for about six weeks. He finished with a 4.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP as he struggled to throw strikes and avoid hard contact. He walked 10.2% of hitters while striking out just 18.5%; between that and the 9% of his batted balls that were barreled, he ended up with a 5.89 xERA. He can bring it with a mid-90s fastball and great extension thanks to his 6-foot-7 frame, but maintaining his velocity has been a challenge. In his final outing of last season, he broke out a split-fingered fastball that he learned from Senga, and he spent the winter working to hone it; he calls it “The American Spork,” referencing Senga’s “Ghost Fork.” “Got a lot of reps with it and it’s working well,” he told reporters this week. “It’s definitely part of the arsenal now.”

Lucchesi, a 30-year-old lefty, has spent parts of five seasons in the majors. He made nine starts totaling 46.2 innings for the Mets last year, turning in a tidy 2.89 ERA that was hardly supported by his peripherals; he struck out just 16.4% of hitters and served up a 10.4% barrel rate en route to a 4.22 FIP and a 5.48 xERA. Butto, a 25-year-old righty, is the least experienced of the three, still a rookie actually. He throws a 93-95 mph fastball with a plus changeup and a good slider; the secondaries both miss bats at an above-average rate. Used as a spot starter last year, he made seven starts and two relief appearances totaling 42 innings, turning in a 3.64 ERA and 4.02 FIP, walking a gaudy 12.8% of hitters (against a modest 21.2% strikeout rate) but holding them to a 2.5% barrel rate and 0.64 HR/9.

Unlikely to figure into the Mets’ season-opening plans but perhaps in play later this year are righties Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, and Dominic Hamel, all of whom Eric Longenhagen covered in the team’s Imminent Big Leaguers piece earlier this month (along with Butto). None of those three are on the 40-man roster; Scott and Hamel are entering their age-25 seasons but haven’t pitched above Double-A, while Vasil is entering his age-24 season and took 16 turns at Syracuse last year, as well as 10 at Binghamton. Via Longenhagen, Scott grades out as the best of them, a 50 FV prospect who projects as a mid-rotation starter thanks to his combination of a 94-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, and a splitter. He’s 6-foot-4, weighs 215 pounds and gets great extension. Hamel, a 45 FV prospect, throws a 92-96 mph fastball and two good breaking balls but has iffy command. Vasil, a 45 FV prospect, projects as “a rock steady no. 4/5 starter on a good team,” per Longehagen; he throws a 92-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, an average curveball and a changeup.

While the free agent market still has no shortage of pitchers who could help the Mets, from expensive options, such as Snell and Jordan Montgomery, to more affordable ones, such as righties Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, and Zack Greinke, the team’s tax situation makes a signing highly unlikely. Given that they’re already above the fourth-tier threshold of $297 million, the Mets will pay a 110% tax on the salaries of anybody they add. “We’re asking people to step up,” said Stearns, speaking of his internal options.

If enough of those pitchers do step up, the Mets could have an interesting summer, because even with Senga down, they currently project to have a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs. But those odds still depend upon him making a substantial contribution to the team, and right now, that’s anything but guaranteed.

Following a career-worst season and some stinging public criticism from Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, Giancarlo Stanton is making some changes. Earlier this week, the oft-injured 34-year-old slugger reported to spring training looking significantly leaner than in the past, and on Wednesday provided the public with the first glimpse of his reworked swing. Sure, this all fits into the realm of spring training clichés, and batting practice cuts won’t tell us whether the changes can reverse his decline or improve his chances of staying healthy, but a rebound would certainly be welcome as the Yankees attempt to recover from their worst record in 31 years.

Amid a season in which so many key Yankees wound up sidelined by injuries for significant spells, Stanton played in just 101 games, his lowest full-season total since 2019, when he was limited to 19 games by left biceps and right knee injuries. This time around, he missed 46 days due to a left hamstring strain, the latest in a litany of lower body injuries he’s incurred since the start of 2019:

That’s 301 days on the injured list, not including his missing three games in the 2019 ALCS against the Astros. Meanwhile, Stanton has played 391 regular season games, which prorates to an average of 89 over a 162-game season.

It was with that frustrating series of absences in mind that Cashman vented during a media session at the GM meetings in Arizona last November, “I’m not going to tell you he’s gonna play every game next year because he’s not. He’s gonna wind up getting hurt again, more likely than not, because it seems to be part of his game.” To be fair, Cashman immediately added, “But I know that when he’s right and healthy – other than this past year – the guy’s a great hitter and has been for a long time.”

Stanton refrained from public comment at the time, letting agent Joel Wolfe trade volleys with the GM, who went into damage control mode. “I value Giancarlo Stanton as a player,” he told reporters. “Without a doubt, he’s one of the big drivers when we do win. He’s one of the few players you bring to New York that hasn’t backed down, that has handled himself in a professional manner through thick and thin.” The GM additionally spoke with both player and agent to clear the air, and since then, both Cashman and Stanton have kept the substance of their discussion private. “He knows my reaction to that,” said the latter at the Yankees’ spring training complex on Monday.

Until 2023, Stanton’s absences were mitigated at least somewhat by his productivity. He hit .248/.338/.493 for a 130 wRC+ from 2019–22, including .273/.354/.516 (138 wRC+) in his 139-game ’21 campaign, his healthiest one of that stretch. He made the AL All-Star team in 2022, but his ugly final line (.211/.297/.462, 116 wRC+) concealed a drastic split: He hit .285/.339/.523 (142 wRC+) through May 24, his last day before landing on the IL due to right ankle inflammation, but just .166/.272/.425 thereafter, and to get to an even 100 wRC+ for that stretch required hitting home runs in his final three games. That sorry batting line looks a lot like last year’s one (.191/.275/.420), though with rising scoring levels, the latter was good for just an 89 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR. Since that ankle-related IL stint, he owns a 93 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR in 699 PA. It ain’t great.

As ever, Stanton struck out a lot, but that wasn’t his primary problem. In terms of overall strikeout rate, his 29.9% was down 0.4 points from 2022, and dead even with ’18. His 34.1% whiff rate was right at his Statcast-era average, down 2.4 points from 2022, and down 0.3 points from ’18. His 13.7% swinging strike rate and his 29.4% chase rate were both similarly below 2018, ’22, and his career marks.

Likewise, Stanton continued to put a charge in the ball when he connected, if not quite as hard as in recent years (I’ve omitted 2019 and ’20 due to their small samples):

Not all contact is created equal, of course. Stanton pulled the ball 41.1% of the time in 2023, up from 36.5% in ’22 and his highest full-season rate since ’17, when he was still a Marlin. In general, pulled fly balls tend to be the most productive, while opposite field groundballs tend to be more productive than pulled ones even after the banning of infield shifts. What we see with Stanton is that his results on pulled groundballs — which used to be quite good, because he hit them so hard — have deteriorated drastically, as have his results on pulled fly balls:

Because xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA don’t account for spray angle, I’ve instead used the annual league-wide averages for right-handed hitters where I’d usually put those figures. You can see that Stanton was way below those averages last year despite exit velos about 5 mph above the league-wide averages. His launch angles were particularly extreme, given that righties averaged -12.0 degrees on pulled grounders and 34.7 degrees on pulled fly balls. His 37.2-degree average on the latter was so high as to be unproductive; he was over 500 points short of the league average slugging percentage on fly balls. I couldn’t fit it into the table, but the estimated average distance on his pulled fly balls in 2023 was 344 feet, a full 20 feet shorter than his average from the year before; he averaged 356 feet in 2018 and 348 in ’21.

Some of the missing production probably owes to Stanton’s speed, or lack of it. His sprint speed fell from the 69th percentile in 2018 to the 13th percentile by ’21, and was down to the fourth percentile last year. It’s likely that some of this is intentional — his not running hard at times is a way to prevent injuries or to avoid turning minor aches into major problems — but it’s no doubt costing him hits here and there, contributing to his shortfalls in batting average relative to xBA. In fact, a quick look at his player page shows that his rate of infield hits per groundball (IFH% on his player page) has fallen from 12.8% in 2018 to 4.4% in ’21, 4.1% in ’22 and 2.8% last year.

Meanwhile, Stanton got under a lot more balls than usual, regardless of direction, leading to a higher percentage of harmless popups and flies. His 26.6% Under rate was his highest of the Statcast era, well above his 19.7% in 2022; he hadn’t been above 22% since ’16. He went 6-for-66 on those balls in 2023, which was actually better than his 2-for-52 in ’22 or his 4-for-70 in ’21; the problem was that those balls occupied a larger share of his contact.

Though he still slugged .533 against four-seamers and .516 against sinkers, Stanton was much less productive against fastballs of both types than in the past. He struggled with sliders, as he usually does, and was utterly helpless against curveballs, which was comparatively new. In 2018, he hit .233 and slugged .517 against curves, and even in ’22, he was at .222 AVG/.389 SLG; last year, he plummeted to .115 AVG/.269 SLG. His heat maps show that he has serious holes in his swing. Here’s a comparison between his heat maps for barreled balls against fastballs (the top pair) and breaking balls (the bottom pair); 2018 is on the left and ’23 on the right. Note how much smaller the coverage of the latter is — he didn’t barrel a single ball against pitches outside those areas — and how there is much less red.

Here’s a look at the progression of Stanton’s overall xwOBAs by Gameday zone:

Check out the sequence in the lower right corner of the strike zone. Within this timespan, Stanton’s xwOBAs in that cell have dropped from .287 to .252 to .207 to .129 (see here to zoom in on the numbers). Meanwhile, all of the red has disappeared from the upper and outer thirds of the zone. As Alex Chamberlain wrote last week, that upper third is particularly important when it comes to producing pulled fly balls, so it doesn’t help that Stanton’s whiff rate in that part of the zone has climbed from 23.1% in 2018 to a decimal or two on either side of 30% in the last two seasons — more than double the league-wide rate.

Particularly in light of the data, I’m hardly the first to wonder if Stanton’s series of lower body injuries has compromised his flexibility, contributing to those open holes in his swing. Indeed, in September at Pinstripe Alley, Malachi Hayes built on FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera’s visual breakdown of some mechanical issues Stanton was having, pointing out the slugger’s increased difficulty with low breaking balls and the way pitchers were going even lower against him:

Sliders and changeups, making up about a third of the pitches he sees, are crossing the plate a little less than two inches lower and a little bit farther away than they have over the last few years. It sounds like a small change, but the difference shows up in heat maps — especially against right-handed pitchers — and it seems increasingly clear that he just can’t go down and get those pitches like he used to.

Stanton, whose work ethic and conditioning have never been in doubt within the organization, told reporters he spent the offseason focusing on mobility and on changing his swing. Improved mobility should help him find time in an outfield mix that will include Alex Verdugo in left, Aaron Judge in center, and Juan Soto in right. Light-hitting Trent Grisham can help in center, and while that could mean Judge spending time in left field, as manager Aaron Boone suggested last month, it’s probably going to mean a lot of DH duty for No. 99 as well, given his own injury history. The situation will only become more crowded once Jasson Domínguez returns from the Tommy John surgery he had in September. Unless Stanton can play the outfield — more likely right field, with Soto slotting in left — he stands to lose playing time. He played just 33 games in the outfield last year, and 38 the year before, and the results were quite poor (a combined -7 DRS, -4 RAA, and -0.8 UZR in 567 innings for the two seasons). More mobility certainly couldn’t hurt.

As for the promised changes, here’s a glimpse of the 6-foot-4 Stanton (listed at 245 pounds but looking lighter) appearing kind of skinny next to the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Judge, via Newsday’s Erik Boland:

Judge and Stanton after playing catch pic.twitter.com/kxZUjVx2sE

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) February 19, 2024

Here’s a side-by-side comparison of Stanton’s stance, from last season to this year, courtesy of The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner:

Side by side look of Giancarlo Stanton’s stance from videos I shot. Left is today. Right is last year.

We will see what it looks like with the game angle camera.

Stanton said he was making some changes to his swing https://t.co/i2MsLICKPA pic.twitter.com/cs3Tmmp9m8

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 21, 2024

And here he is taking a BP cut:

Here’s Giancarlo Stanton pic.twitter.com/e9QOSWCgGy

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 20, 2024

Stanton is more upright, with his back leg closer to the plate than before, but at this level of intensity and the limited number of angles, it’s tough to say more than that. Given that it’s February, his changes — and those of everybody else who reported to camp talking about swing tweaks, new pitches, and improved training regimens — should be considered a work in progress. With the addition of Soto, there’s a bit less pressure on Stanton to be one of the lineup’s primary producers, but the Yankees can’t justify playing him if he remans below replacement level. We’ll see soon enough whether he can return to being close to the dangerous hitter he used to be.

The Blue Jays signed a lefty-swinging first baseman/designated hitter whose name begins with a V and an O, but it wasn’t Joey Votto. As position players report to camps, the longtime Red and all-time leader in games played by a Canadian-born major leaguer remains a free agent. Instead, the Blue Jays added Daniel Vogelbach on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. At his best, the well-traveled 31-year-old can help the Blue Jays, but in context, his limitations provide yet another reminder of the team’s underwhelming offseason.

Vogelbach’s deal calls for him to make $2 million if he’s in the majors, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. This is actually his second go-round with the Blue Jays, but you’re forgiven if you need your memory jogged. He spent 10 days with the team during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, between being purchased from the Mariners and lost on waivers to the Brewers; within that span, he played two games, going 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts. After spending all of 2021 with the Brewers, he split ’22 between the Pirates and Mets, with an effective stretch-run stint for the latter, and then spent last year in Queens as well.

Despite a productive opening month to his 2023 season, Vogelbach hit just .213/.326/.348 (92 wRC+) through the end of June, a span that included an eight-day benching for the purposes of a mental break. He was much better from July onward, batting .258/.355/.475 (131 wRC+) with eight homers in 138 plate appearances, but even so, he was an afterthought in September. He made just five starts that month, none in the Mets’ final 16 games, with just three of his 24 plate appearances for September coming in that span. Unsurprisingly, he was nontendered in November.

Even in a down season, Vogelbach again showed an excellent batting eye, chasing just 24.1% of pitches outside the strike zone and walking 13.2% of the time; that said, his strikeout rate crept to 25.4%, his highest since 2019. He didn’t get enough playing time to qualify for Statcast’s percentile cutoffs, but his 91.7 mph average exit velo and 50% hard-hit rate would have landed at the 86th and 93rd percentiles, respectively.

Vogelbach is a player with obvious limitations. He didn’t play a single game in the field during his Mets tenure, had just five for the Pirates before being dealt in July 2022, and owns DH-caliber metrics at first base for his seven-year career (1,059.2 innings, -8 RAA, -15 DRS). He went 0-for-15 with a walk and eight strikeouts against lefties in 2023, and has been utterly helpless against them for his career (.129/.248/.215, 35 wRC+ in 323 PA). He’s never even attempted a stolen base in the majors, a wise choice given his 2nd-percentile sprint speed. That’s not the easiest player to fit onto a roster, and if Vogelbach does stick with the Blue Jays, he’s not likely to get a ton of playing time unless things go wrong elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the incumbent first baseman, and Toronto signed the righty-swinging Justin Turner to a one-year, $13 million deal to serve as its primary DH while spotting all around the infield, as he did last year with the Red Sox. Turner hit for just a 105 wRC+ against righties (.273/.335/.430 in 462 PA) in 2023, but that may have been an aberration given his 132 wRC+ against them over the previous three seasons. He doesn’t need a platoon partner.

Given the size of the role in question, it’s not tremendously hard to understand why the Blue Jays signed Vogelbach instead of the 40-year-old Votto, who became a free agent after 17 seasons with the Reds and who scuffled in 2023. Coming off of August 2022 surgery to repair tears in his left rotator cuff and biceps, Votto didn’t make his season debut until June 19, and while he homered off Austin Gomber in his second plate appearance, he hit just .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) with 14 homers in 208 PA. Save for his slugging percentage and barrel rate, neither that slash line nor his underlying Statcast numbers were as good as those of Vogelbach.

The Blue Jays showed interest in Votto early in the offseason, with general manager Ross Atkins saying, “Incredible reputation, really dynamic personality, really bright (person) that I know our team would embrace… But I think that’s the case for probably 15 teams.” Based on Votto’s background, he added a potential for “massive impact in the community if he were to be a Toronto Blue Jay.”

Despite the obvious appeal, nothing ever materialized, and in the wake of the Turner signing, we can infer that the Blue Jays may not have been willing to offer Votto — whose 2022 production was underwhelming amid his shoulder woes — enough playing time. To date, it doesn’t appear that any team has offered the right mix of opportunity and money. On January 11, USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale reported that three teams were interested in Votto, and in his Sunday notebook a few days later mentioned the Blue Jays and Brewers as potential fits. The last report of a team’s interest in him came on January 24, when Heyman connected Votto to the Angels. That same day, Reds GM Nick Krall told season ticket holders he had no plans to bring back the franchise icon. Since those flickers of interest, the Blue Jays added Turner and the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the future Hall of Fame first baseman has popped up at the NHL All-Star Game in the company of Gritty and other mascots and quoted Dylan Thomas on Instagram, but otherwise, he’s been quiet on social media.

.@JoeyVotto is having the time of his life at the @NHL All-Star Game ?

via joeyvotto/IG pic.twitter.com/hBSOQfUhCr

— Cut4 (@Cut4) February 3, 2024

The Blue Jays/Votto connection has always been more speculative than substantial, but, like the Vogelbach signing, it’s at least interesting enough to underscore just how unremarkable Toronto’s offseason has been. Coming off an 89-win season in which it claimed the third AL Wild Card spot but made a quick two-and-through exit, the team hasn’t made anything that could be characterized as an impact move, even after showing signs of grand ambitions.

For a brief time, it appeared that the Blue Jays had won the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, but alas that rumor proved untrue. With the possible exception of signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with whom they met before he chose the Dodgers as well, nothing else they could have done would have been as impactful. But they at least seemed to be thinking big by showing enough interest in Cody Bellinger to be considered co-favorites (along with the Cubs) to sign him as Christmas approached, and he remains a free agent as of this writing. Instead, in late December, the Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier — a spectacular fielder but a league-average hitter who turns 34 in April — to a one-year, $10.5 million deal, presumably to be their regular center fielder between Daulton Varsho in left and George Springer in right.

And then there’s Toronto’s approach to its third base situation. Matt Chapman hit free agency after an uneven season that included a .255/.346/.449 (121 wRC+) line through August 12, when he sprained his right middle finger in a weight room mishap, and a .163/.250/.302 (54 wRC+) line the rest of the way; he initially missed three games after suffering the injury, then 15 more after trying to play through it. The Blue Jays, who reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100 million over four or five years before he reached free agency, extended him a $20.325 million qualifying offer, which he declined. Like Bellinger, he remains a free agent while the Blue Jays have moved on. Just after inking Kiermaier, they signed light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, then added Turner. Though he makes more sense fitting into the utility slot vacated by Whit Merrifield, who recently signed with the Phillies, Kiner-Falefa is currently projected to receive the most plate appearances of any Toronto player at third base (231), with Turner, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, and Eduardo Escobar also in the mix. The 35-year-old Escobar, who began last season as Vogelbach’s teammate on the Mets before being traded to the Angels, signed a minor league deal with a nonroster invitation last week; he’s looking to rebound from a dismal .226/.269/.344 (66 wRC+) performance in 309 PA.

Between Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa, and Turner, that’s a not-so-grand total of $38.5 million committed to free agent position players this winter, short of enough money to cover the present-day value of one season of Ohtani. Their other major league deal was for Cuban righthander Yariel Rodriguez — who spent 2020–22 with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons, mainly as a reliever — whom they signed to a five-year, $32 million contract. After pitching for Cuba in the World Baseball Classic last year, Rodriguez sat out the regular season while establishing residency in the Dominican Republic so he could become a major league free agent. The Blue Jays intend to build him up as a starter, but he might wind up in Triple-A or in a multi-inning bullpen role as he begins his major league career. Meanwhile, the team will roll with a starting five of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah, the last of those coming off a dreadful season after a top-three finish in the AL Cy Young voting in 2022. Lefty Ricky Tiedemann, no. 28 on our new Top 100 Prospects List, could help later in the year, but has just 36 innings above A-ball to his name, while righty Bowden Francis is being stretched out to provide more immediate depth. While they’ve been “quietly monitoring” the ongoing Blake Snell market, per Nightengale, the Blue Jays have never appeared likely to spend big on starting pitching this winter; instead, they have focused on improving their lineup.

Last week, Atkins said, “At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction,” which didn’t sound like he was leaving the light on for either Bellinger or Chapman. If this is more or less the Blue Jays’ roster, according to Roster Resource, their payroll sits at $235.7 million in terms of actual salaries, up from $214.5 million last year, and $248.7 million for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, a hair ahead of last year’s $246.1 million and somewhere between the first and second tax thresholds ($237 million and $257 million, respectively). That’s the game’s sixth- or seventh-highest payroll, depending on which figure you’re using to rank them, so it’s not as though the Blue Jays are going cheap.

Nor do they project to be bad. We have them forecast for 83.5 wins, fourth in the AL East but part of a tight group with the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles; only 4.6 projected wins separates Toronto from New York, the projected first-place finisher. The thing is, the Blue Jays are right at the point where adding extra wins could increase their odds above their 14.2% chance at winning the division title and 47.7% chance to make the playoffs. While their AL East competition has added marquee players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the end result of the Blue Jays’ grand offseason just feels like a series of half measures.

It happens every spring. Pitchers and catchers report to camp and begin working out… and getting hurt. Sometimes they find out they’re already seriously injured, and sometimes the injury is just one that becomes public knowledge as spring training gets underway. The last scenario appears to be the case for the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish, who will start the season on the injured list due to a sprain of his right ulnar collateral ligament that he suffered in January. He’s not Baltimore’s only starter who’s down, either; John Means is behind schedule because his offseason throwing program was delayed in the wake of the elbow soreness that knocked him off the postseason roster.

On the strength of an effective sinker and a couple of nasty breaking pitches, Bradish broke out in 2023, emerging as the staff ace in his second major league season and helping the Orioles surprise the baseball world by winning an AL-best 101 games, their highest total since 1979. Batters slugged just .165 against his curve and .272 against his slider. Both pitches generated whiff rates above 35% and graded among the best pitches of their kind in the majors; the curve was worth 15 runs above average, which ranked third, while his slider (14 runs) ranked 11th. The 26-year-old righty finished third in the AL with a 2.83 ERA in 168.2 innings, accompanying that with a 3.27 FIP (fifth in the league) and 3.8 WAR (eighth, as well as third with 4.9 bWAR). Bradish finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting behind Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, and Kevin Gausman.

Bradish earned the start in the Division Series opener against the Rangers, and acquitted himself well by striking out nine while allowing just two runs. Even so, he departed with two outs in the fifth inning, down 2-1. The Orioles lost that game, 3-2, and were swept by the eventual World Series winners.

Just as Bradish began his throwing program in January, he experienced irritation in his elbow. According to general manager Mike Elias, after being diagnosed with a UCL sprain, Bradish received an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to stimulate enough healing to avoid Tommy John surgery. One can understand why the Orioles kept a lid on this development during the winter, as it could have affected their leverage in trade and free agent discussions. The timeline does suggest they were aware of Bradish’s issue by the time they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers in exchange for DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and a Competitive Balance Round A pick at the beginning of February.

Unfortunately, the Orioles are well acquainted with the UCL sprain/PRP sequence, having gone through it late last season with closer Félix Bautista, who was sidelined in late August and wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. There’s no indication yet that Bradish’s sprain is as severe as that of Bautista, though even The Mountain’s injury offered hope of rehabbing without surgery. According to Elias, Bradish is scheduled to begin a throwing program on Friday, and he’s still hopeful that the pitcher will avoid surgery and be part of this year’s team. Per MLB.com’s Jake Reel:

“Everything is pointed in the right direction and going well right now at this time. But I’m not at a point where I want to start putting a timeline on when we’re going to see him in Major League action,” Elias said. “Right now, we’re prepping him for a lot of action in 2024, and we’re getting him ready for that as expeditiously and responsibly as possible, but there’s going to be some time involved.”

More via the Baltimore Sun’s Jacob Calvin Meyer:

“Pitching is a dangerous business nowadays,” Elias said. “You never like to hear anybody have elbow or shoulder or wrist injuries or what have you. There are a lot of people who have [PRP injections] and never get surgery, and rest and other treatments do the trick. So, hopefully, that’s where we’re at with this one.”

As for Means, the former All-Star and rotation stalwart underwent Tommy John surgery on April 27, 2022, and returned to the majors last September, making four starts totaling 23.2 innings, with a 2.66 ERA but just an 11.4% strikeout rate and a 5.24 FIP. Just when it looked he might be fit to make a postseason start, the Orioles shut him down due to elbow soreness. He began his offseason throwing routine a month later than usual, hence Elias’ statement that he’s a month behind the team’s healthy starters. Elias acknowledged that a spot on the Opening Day roster for Means would be unlikely.

With those two pitchers out, Baltimore’s rotation to start the season will most likely include righties Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells, and lefty Cole Irvin. The 29-year-old Burnes is coming off an underwhelming season by his standards, with a 3.39 ERA, 3.80 FIP, and 3.4 WAR — all of it respectable but far removed from his dominant 2021 campaign, for which he won the NL Cy Young. The most concerning thing is that his strikeout rate has dropped by about five percentage points in each of his past two seasons, falling from 35.6% in 2021 to 30.5% and then 25.5%; meanwhile, his walk rate has climbed. He still projects to be one of the game’s 10 most valuable starters, and instead of being nickeled and dimed by the Brewers, he’s got a massive free agent contract on the other side of this season if he pitches well.

The 24-year-old Rodriguez is coming off an impressive turnaround in the middle of his rookie season. Cuffed for a 7.35 ERA and 5.91 FIP in 10 starts totaling 45.2 innings in April and May, he did Cy Young-caliber work upon returning from Triple-A Norfolk, abandoning his cutter and posting a 2.58 ERA and 2.76 FIP with a 24% strikeout rate in 13 starts (76.2 innings). The 28-year-old Kremer improved in-season as well, following a 4.78 ERA and 4.92 FIP first half with a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP the rest of the way, while also shaving his home run rate from 1.84 per nine to 0.84. Like Bradish, both pitchers logged their highest innings totals in their professional careers (163.1 for Rodriguez, 172.2 for Kremer).

The same is true for the 29-year-old Wells, who spent the first four months of the 2023 season in the rotation, putting up a 3.80 ERA, albeit with 1.98 homers per nine and a 5.14 FIP. He had already set a career high in innings when the Orioles optioned him, first to Double-A Bowie and then Norfolk. He returned to the O’s in late September as a reliever, and he trimmed those numbers a bit, finishing with a 3.64 ERA and 4.98 FIP in 118.2 innings; in fact, in 13.1 relief innings between the regular season and postseason, he didn’t allow a run and yielded just one hit and one walk while striking out 11. He was expected to compete with the 30-year-old Irvin for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring, but for the moment it appears there’s room for both. Irvin split last year between the rotation and bullpen, making 12 appearances in each capacity and totaling 77.1 innings, with a 4.42 ERA and 4.43 FIP.

Should the Orioles need to dip any further into their depth, 29-year-old lefty Bruce Zimmerman and prospects Cade Povich, a lefty, and Chayce McDermott, a righty, appear to be next in line in some order or another. Zimmerman made a combined 26 starts for the Orioles in 2021 and ’22 but was rocked for a 5.54 ERA and 5.74 FIP in the process. He spent most of last year at Norfolk, where he put up a 4.42 ERA and 3.25 FIP; amid being optioned the maximum of five times, he made seven appearances for the Orioles, all in relief, for a total of 13.1 innings.

Povich and McDermott both split last season between Bowie and Norfolk. Povich, a 2021 third-round pick who rated as a 45 FV prospect as of last year’s midseason update, is a pitchability type with a low-90s fastball and a cutter that’s become a swing-and-miss weapon. He struck out an impressive 31.1% of hitters last year but put up a 5.04 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 126.2 innings. McDermott, a 2021 fourth-round pick acquired from the Astros in the Trey Mancini trade, rated as a 40 FV prospect in the aforementioned update. Wiry and long-levered at 6-foot-3, 197 pounds, McDermott throws a 93-95 mph fastball with two breaking pitches that are at least above average and a cutter, which he added last year. Command issues, though, may limit him to a bullpen role; he walked 13.8% last year while striking out 30.9%, accompanied by a 3.10 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 119 innings.

The Orioles could dip into the trade or free agent market for reinforcements, but at this juncture, it seems unlikely that they’d sign either Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell, or revisit trade talks for Dylan Cease. According to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, the prospects dealt to the Brewers for Burnes were the ones Baltimore offered the White Sox. Lefty Hyun Jin Ryu and righties Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, and Zack Greinke are the top unsigned free agents in terms of their 2024 projections, though they are hardly the only options.

So long as the O’s retain the hope of a Bradish return this season, odds are they won’t go overboard with an immediate impact move. The most likely scenario is that they’ll push through with their in-house options with an eye toward a midseason addition if they’re in contention again — which is expected to be the case given their 53.2% playoff odds at this writing. Still, this injury is a downer for taking one of the game’s recent breakouts out of circulation. We can only hope it’s not for the whole season.

Corey Kluber announced his retirement on Friday, bringing the curtain down on an exceptional career whose later years were so often curtailed by injuries. Kluber pitched in the majors for parts of 13 seasons, but topped 100 innings just seven times, six in a row from 2013–18 and again in ’22. Within that limited timeframe, he made three All-Star teams and won two Cy Youngs, with a pair of top-three finishes and a ninth-place finish as well. His 2016 postseason run came up just short of ending Cleveland’s long championship drought. His is a career worth celebrating and putting into context, as his best work stands alongside that of a handful of Hall of Fame contemporaries.

Because he spent half a decade at the front of Cleveland’s rotation, it’s easy to forget that Kluber was actually drafted by the Padres, who chose him in the fourth round out of Stetson University in 2007. He climbed to Double-A San Antonio by 2010; on July 31 of that year, he was part of a three-team trade, heading to Cleveland while Jake Westbrook was sent from Cleveland to St. Louis, Ryan Ludwick from St. Louis to San Diego, and Nick Greenwood from San Diego to St. Louis. After a cup of coffee in late 2011, Kluber spent the first two-thirds of the next season at Triple-A Columbus, then joined the big club’s rotation in August. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Eleven years ago, Jurickson Profar was the consensus pick as the game’s top prospect. Now he’s just days away from his 31st birthday and looking to rebound from the worst performance of his career. According to multiple reports, he’ll be returning to the Padres, a team whose roster is more than a little light on outfielders.

Profar spent the 2020–22 seasons with San Diego, turning in solid campaigns in the two bookends of that run. He posted a 113 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and a 111 wRC+ and a career-high 2.5 WAR in ’22; in the middle season, however, he sank to an 87 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR. After his comparatively strong 2022 showing, he opted out of a $7.5 million guarantee for ’23, instead taking a $1 million buyout. The move pretty much backfired, as he went unsigned last winter before finally inking a one-year, $7.75 million deal with the Rockies in mid-March after playing for Team Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic.

Whether it was the late signing date, the difficulty of adjusting to Colorado, or the eventual realization of just what he was in for with a team that lost 94 games in 2022 and had little expectation of improving in ’23, Profar struggled mightily. At the plate he hit just .236/.316/.364 with eight homers in 472 plate appearances for the Rockies, yielding just a 76 wRC+. If that wasn’t bad enough, he was absolutely brutal as a full-time left fielder according to the metrics, with -11 DRS and -12 OAA.

On Aug. 27, the Rockies released him, and four days later, he rejoined the Padres, who sent him to El Paso for a quick tuneup and then added him to the roster on Sept. 9. He collected three hits apiece in his first two games back, including a homer off the Astros’ Cristian Javier, and hit a reassuring .295/.367/.409 (120 wRC+) in 49 PA with San Diego. Still, he finished the year with -2.0 WAR, the lowest mark of any position player in the majors. So while he did land a major league contract, he ended up taking quite a pay cut. He’s guaranteed a base salary of $1 million, with incentives that can add another $1.5 million according to FanSided’s Robert Murray.

Profar was more effective against lefties (.275/.347/.427, 97 wRC+ in 147 PA) than righties (.229/.311/.345, 68 WRC+ in 374 PA) last year, but in the aggregate, he had been pretty platoon neutral prior to last season, with a 104 wRC+ against lefties and 100 against righties from 2018–22. While he showed disciplined when it came to chasing pitches out of the strike zone (just 24.5% in 2023, a point below his career norm) and swung at more pitches than ever inside the zone (68.5%), he just didn’t make much good contact. His 86.5 mph average exit velocity, 4% barrel rate, and 31.7% hard-hit rate respectively ranked in the ninth, 10th, and 12th percentiles, and it’s not as though he legged out extra hits with 13th-percentile speed. He outdid his .344 xSLG by a whole 24 points; otherwise his actual and expected numbers were just a few points apart.

All of which is to say that this isn’t a case of looking at a mediocre performance and seeing obvious signs of potential positive regression. This is one where a rebound is likely to be driven by soft factors. Connected to general manager A.J. Preller from their days with the Rangers, Profar is back in an environment where he has performed well, and one where he’s considered a popular, positive presence. From The Athletic’s Dennis Lin:

A popular teammate, Profar has long been close with such players as [Fernando Tatis Jr.] and infielders Ha-Seong Kim and Manny Machado.

“It’s hard to quantify; otherwise, we would have this thing figured out in our game,” [manager Mike] Shildt said. “But having the experience and knowing how important clubhouses are, how important it is to have positive guys that also can share truths with everybody around them, hold guys accountable in a good way — Jurickson brings that.”

If you’re wondering about how often players who plummet as far below replacement level as Profar did turn things around the next season, the answer is not often. Going back to 2001, I found 28 other player-seasons with at least 200 PA and -2.0 WAR. Twelve of those were by catchers, many whose values were retroactively downgraded by negative framing run estimates; I wasn’t really interested in their fates (sorry, guys). Of the 16 other players, one never played in the majors again, while the rest averaged 376 PA and 0.6 WAR in their follow-up seasons, with Aubrey Huff (5.7 WAR in 2010), Adam Dunn (2.1 WAR in 2012) and Jermaine Dye (1.8 WAR in 2004) the big success stories; each went on to extend his career by at least a couple more years. On the other hand, seven of the 15 were below replacement level the next year as well, and many of them didn’t play much longer. Profar’s own Depth Charts projection looks a lot like that group’s average: .238/.325/.369 (93 wRC+) with 0.2 WAR in 364 PA.

It’s difficult to envision Profar getting a ton of playing time with that kind of performance, but right now, the Padres’ outfield picture is a nearly blank canvas. Prior to his signing, the team had just two outfielders on its 40-man roster, namely Fernando Tatis Jr. and José Azocar, both right-handed hitters. The 25-year-old Tatis played in a career-high 141 games last year after returning from his 80-game suspension for violating the game’s performance-enhancing drug policy, and while he hit just .257/.322/.449 for a career-low 113 wRC+, stellar defense (10 OAA and 29 DRS in right field, 8 OAA and 27 DRS including his 30 innings in center) boosted his overall production to 4.4 WAR. Azocar, who turns 28 on May 11, hit for a 78 wRC+ in 102 PA last year and owns a career .249/.292/.341 (81 wRC+) line in 318 PA over two seasons. The small-sample metrics suggest he’s an above-average center fielder, but he doesn’t project to do much as a hitter.

As for the space that’s been vacated, with the death of chairman Peter Seidler and a mandate to trim last year’s payroll ($280.3 million for Competitive Balance Tax purposes), Juan Soto and Trent Grisham were traded to the Yankees in early December in exchange for a five-player package headlined by Michael King. Soto made 154 starts in left field for the Padres last year, Grisham 142 starts in center; along with Tatis, they accounted for 90.5% of the team’s plate appearances as outfielders. Other than Azocar, who started 14 times in center, nine in right and once in left and took 95 PA as an outfielder, they had seven players who combined for just 100 PA in that capacity, with Profar (24) the leader. The six others are gone from the organization, with David Dahl, the team’s Opening Day right fielder last year, and Adam Engel, who briefly played center, released in the first half of last season. Rougned Odor is now a Yomiuri Giant, while Ben Gamel and Taylor Kohlwey both signed minor league deals with the Mets, and Brandon Dixon has yet to resurface with another organization.

Obviously, that leaves a lot of playing time to give at two of the three outfield spots. Beyond Profar, the team has half a dozen non-roster invitees in camp. Three have major league experience, namely 29-year-old righty-swinging Óscar Mercado, 28-year-old switch-hitter Bryce Johnson, and 24-year-old lefty Cal Mitchell. Mercado is the most experienced, a former Guardians prospect who made 32 PA for the Cardinals — who originally drafted him in the second round in 2013 — last year. He owns a career .237/.289/.388 (82 wRC+) line in 973 PA but has at least shown he can play center field. Last year, he hit .299/.367/.523 (114 wRC+) with 14 homers in 347 PA spread out between Triple-A stops in Memphis, El Paso, and Oklahoma City. Mainly a center fielder, Johnson, a 2017 sixth-round pick by the Giants, hit .163/.229/.256 (35 wRC+) in his 48 PA with San Francisco last year, but he did bat a healthier .280/.373/.455 (103 wRC+) with eight homers and 18 steals in 298 PA at Triple-A Sacramento. Mitchell, a 2017 second-round pick by the Pirates, made just five plate appearances for Pittsburgh last year after hitting .226/.286/.349 (78 wRC+) in 232 PA as a right fielder in 2022. He hit a thin .261/.333/.414 (87 wRC+) at Triple-A Indianapolis in 2023, after a much better showing at that level, .339/.391/.547 (146 wRC+) the year before.

Of more interest among the NRIs are prospects Jakob Marsee, Tirso Ornelas, and Robert Perez Jr. Eric Longenhagen covered the first two in more detail last month in the Padres’ Imminent Big Leaguers roundup. The 22-year-old Marsee, a lefty, is a 40+ FV center field prospect who hit .273/.413/.425 (142 wRC+) with 13 homers and 41 steals in 400 PA at High-A Fort Wayne, then .286/.412/.446 (134 wRC+) with three homers and five steals in 69 PA at Double-A San Antonio, and capped it with an MVP-winning performance in the Arizona Fall League. As you might ascertain from the stolen base totals, his 60-grade speed is his best tool, and his contact and chase-rate data is very promising. Longenhagen described him as a fourth outfielder type whose statistical case is stronger than his visual one: “Marsee is barrel chested and stocky, a bit stiff, and I think he has some plate coverage issues (big velo up/away) that have yet to be exposed by (mostly) A-ball pitching. Marsee is a short-levered pull hitter capable of doing damage versus pitches on the very inner edge of the plate, and I think pitchers can neutralize his power by staying away from him.”

Ornelas is a Tijuana-born 23-year-old lefty swinger who hit .285/.371/.452 (111 wRC+) with 15 homers and eight steals split between San Antonio (126 wRC+) and El Paso (92 wRC+). Longehagen, who has compared him to Billy McKinney, wrote that Ornelas has undergone multiple swing changes with limited success in tapping into his plus raw power, but he does hit the ball hard (42% hard-hit rate, 114 mph max exit velo). A 23-year-old righty hitter from Venezuela, Perez hit .242/.321/.416 (93 wRC+) with 17 homers for the Mariners’ Double-A Arkansas affiliate last season. His 7.5% walk rate and 30.5% strikeout rate were downright cringeworthy, which explains what Longenhagen wrote when he placed him among the Mariners’ other prospects of note last summer. “[Perez] has plus power, but his combo of whiffs and poor plate discipline has kept him in this section of the list for a while.”

According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Padres plan to experiment with 20-year-old shortstop Jackson Merrill, the team’s 2021 first-round pick, in the outfield as well. Merrill, currently the team’s number two prospect (55 FV), hit a combined .277/.326/.444 (108 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals split between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio. Blocked by Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield, he’s already traveling down the defensive spectrum because of his below-average hands; at San Antonio he played five games in left field, two at second base, and one at first. For Longenhagen, playing Merrill at third base (in place of Machado as he recovers from elbow surgery) or left field during the spring represents “the best chance for the Padres to catch a special sort of lightning in a bottle.”

Added Shildt, “We do want to kind of read the tea leaves and get him in the outfield and let him see what that looks like.” While the manager cited Profar’s versatility, his 31 innings at first base and one at second after rejoining the Padres last September were his first non-outfield innings since 2021.

The Padres intend to add another outfielder and a starting pitcher, according to Acee, and still have about $20 million to spend to keep themselves under the first CBT threshold of $237 million. Among the free agent outfielders still on the market are Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor, both of whom are capable center fielders, as well as Tommy Pham, Whit Merrifield, Eddie Rosario, Randal Grichuk, and Robbie Grossman. All of which is to say that the ink’s hardly dry on this picture, and despite Profar’s signing, he’ll have to work to keep from getting erased from it.

Editor’s Note: A previous version of this article incorrectly identified the cities of the Padres’ High-A and Double-A affiliates. This has been corrected.

For over a century, baseball and the Summer Olympics have made for an uneasy mix at best. Dating back to the days when the Olympics was purely for amateur athletes, the sport has only sporadically been part of the slate, usually as an exhibition or demonstration. Major League Baseball’s refusal to release its players to participate — thereby disrupting its own schedule — led the International Olympic Committee to drop it in 2005, a slight that gave rise to the World Baseball Classic as an alternative. Now a group has begun a push to convince MLB owners to allow big leaguers to participate in the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, but to these eyes, it feels rather underwhelming in the shadow of the WBC’s success.

Via The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, at this week’s owners meetings in Orlando, Florida, Casey Wasserman presented a proposal for how such participation could work. Wasserman has feet in both worlds, serving as the CEO of the Wasserman Agency, which represents many of the game’s highest-paid stars, and also as the president of the Los Angeles Olympic Organizing Committee, which was successful in landing the 2028 Games for L.A. According to Drellich, he offered a blueprint for a six-to-eight team tournament that could be played on a condensed schedule of less than a week, one that wouldn’t be much more disruptive than the annual All-Star break.

In fact the timing of the 2028 games — from July 14–30 — is close enough to the usual All-Star break that it could supplant that year’s Midsummer Classic, according to Drellich. By comparison, the last five Summer Olympics have all either crossed into or taken place entirely in August. While that wasn’t the reason MLB didn’t let its players participate, it would have required a second break in the season, one happening just as the races for playoff spots heated up, and sometimes past the trade deadline, making it harder to replace a player lost to injury in the tournament. Read the rest of this entry »

With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on deals lasting 10 and 12 years, respectively, the Dodgers are entering a new era when it comes to their headlining superstars — not to take anything away from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, both of whom remain at or near the top of their respective games. On Monday, we learned that the next stage of Dodger baseball will also include another familiar superstar: The New York Post’s Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman reported that free agent Clayton Kershaw will return to the only team for which he’s ever pitched.

The exact terms of the deal — which is pending a physical on Thursday — have yet to emerge at this writing, but USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale reported that the deal is a “one-year, incentive-laden contract,” while The Athletic’s Andy McCullough added that the contract includes a player option for 2025. If exercised, that would allow Kershaw to join Ohtani — who won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his UCL this past September — in the Dodgers’ rotation.

Player options tend to carry advantages when it comes to Competitive Balance Tax accounting, a significant concern for the Dodgers, who rank second in payroll (both actual and CBT-based) only to the Mets and are nearly $12 million over the fourth-tier tax threshold of $297 million even before adding Kershaw’s salary. For example, Justin Turner’s two-year, $21.7 million deal with the Red Sox last year called for a base salary of $8.3 million for 2023, then a $13.4 million option and $6.7 million buyout. By opting out, Turner made $15 million on a deal whose average annual value was just $10.85 million. Read the rest of this entry »