Roll over Pete Rose, and tell Shoeless Joe Jackson the news. In an historic decision that reversed over eight decades of precedent, on Tuesday commissioner Rob Manfred formally reinstated Rose, Jackson, and 15 other deceased individuals who had previously been placed on the permanently ineligible list for violating Rule 21, which bars players, umpires, and club and league officials and employees from gambling on baseball. The move opens the door for Rose (and Jackson) to be considered for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, but that opportunity won’t come until December 2027 at the earliest. Neither their placement on the Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot nor their election to the Hall is automatic even if they do become candidates, as the Hall’s heavy hand in committee proceedings — particularly with regards to players linked to performance-enhancing drugs — should remind us.

Given the extent to which Rose spent decades lying about his gambling and showing a lack of contrition even after he was banned — to say nothing of the allegations of statutory rape that surfaced in recent years — Manfred’s decision is a bitter disappointment, perhaps even a shock. While his decade-long tenure as commissioner has produced no shortage of grounds for criticism, he appeared to be hyper-conscious when it came to drawing a distinction between Major League Baseball’s recent embrace of legalized gambling, and the lines crossed by those who flouted Rule 21. Last June, Pirates infielder Tucupita Marcano was placed on the permanently ineligible list for making 387 baseball bets totaling $150,000 through a legal sports book, while in February, an arbiter upheld the firing of umpire Pat Hoberg for sharing legal sports betting accounts with a professional poker player who bet on baseball, and for impeding MLB’s investigation. Rose’s gambling, via bets placed through bookies, was illegal at the time as well as completely out of bounds given his role within baseball.

Manfred’s latest move was driven by the Rose family’s petition to remove Rose — who died last September 30 at the age of 83 — from the permanently ineligible list so that he can be considered for election to the Hall. Rather than just revisit Rose’s eligibility, however, the commissioner chose to issue a broader ruling that erased what had previously been a meaningful distinction between a popularly misunderstood “lifetime ban” (i.e, one ending with the death of the banned individual) and a permanent spot on baseball’s blacklist. Created by commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis in 1920, the permanently ineligible list was reserved for those found to have gambled on baseball (plus a few who committed other transgressions Landis viewed as grave) from future participation within the game. Read the rest of this entry »

You could be forgiven for not noticing Jonathan Aranda until now. The former Top 100 prospect spent the past three years bouncing back and forth between Triple-A Durham and Tampa Bay without ever making more than 143 major league plate appearances in a single season. He missed substantial time due to injuries last year, and the majority of his time in the majors took place in September, once the Rays — a team that doesn’t get a ton of mainstream attention even when they’re successful — were out of the running. This year, the lefty-swinging 26-year-old has taken over the long half of a first base platoon for the Rays, and so far he’s been hitting the stuffing out of the ball.

After a trio of recent three-hit games — May 4 against the Yankees, May 8 against the Phillies, and May 11 against the Brewers — Aranda is currently batting .342/.429/.553, good enough to place among the AL’s top six in all three slash-stat categories. He ranks second in OBP and wRC+ (184), behind only Aaron Judge. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, sweet spot rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and expected wOBA all rank in the 94th percentile or above. Right now, he looks like the Rays’ next All-Star, filling the void left by the trade of Isaac Paredes, their lone 2024 representative at the Midsummer Classic. Read the rest of this entry »

12:18

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat, and apologies if the non-standard start time threw anybody for a loop; I needed to take care of some business after filing today’s piece a bit later than usual — a quick look at Jonathan Aranda’s breakout that took me a bit longer to complete than I expected because I had colleague Davy Andrews over for beers last night as ww watched some baseball. Anyway, that should go up at 1 pm ET. Yesterday I wrote about Javier Báez’s rebound after two dismal seasons in Detroit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-look-javier-baez-is-fun-again/. On Friday I took a look at some statistical anomalies within extra-innings play thus far this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weird-stuff-is-going-on-in-extra-innings-m…

12:18

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show!

12:20

Jay Jaffe: We’re seeing one of the best runs — if not the best — by a hitter in the 21st century. He’s hitting .414/.500/.783 (255 wRC+) six weeks into the season! Caught a few of his at-bats in the last couple of days and it’s like he’s using a pool cue out there to place the ball where the fielders ain’t.

12:22

Jay Jaffe: I’m gonna go with the guy who looks like he might be on his way to his third 10-win season out of four.

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Through his first three seasons in Detroit, Javier Báez was largely a disappointment, with a combination of flashy defense and free swinging that yielded such diminishing returns that he sank below replacement level while battling injuries last year. He missed the late-season run that helped the Tigers capture a Wild Card spot, and as spring training opened, a full-time place in their lineup wasn’t guaranteed. Amid a rash of injuries to other Tigers, he’s not only split his time between center field — a position he hadn’t played in a regular season game before — third base, and shortstop, he’s been a productive hitter thanks to better health and some adjustments to his swing.

Even while going hitless on Friday and Sunday against the Rangers, the 32-year-old Báez is hitting .300/.336/.455 with three homers and a 127 wRC+. The peripherals underlying that are admittedly shaky, and he’s walking just 3.4% of the time, but thanks to positive defensive contributions at comparatively unfamiliar positions, he’s fourth among the team’s position players with 1.1 WAR — and he’s done it for a team that has the AL’s best record (26-15, .634) and largest division lead (2 1/2 games). For the first time in awhile, watching him is a whole lot of fun.

The Tigers signed Báez to a six-year, $140 million deal in November 2021, after he’d split his season between the Cubs and the Mets (who dealt away Pete Crow-Armstrong in the package to acquire him) — a strong one in which he posted a 117 wRC+ and 4.1 WAR. He was serviceable at best during his first season in Detroit (.238/.278/.393, 89 wRC+, 2.0 WAR) but sank to .222/.267/.325 (63 wRC+) with 0.8 WAR in 2023, then hit just .184/.221/.294 (43 wRC+) in 80 games last year. He missed nearly a month in June and July due to lumbar inflammation; the problem flared up again in August, accompanied by right hip inflammation. Under the belief that the Tigers were going nowhere at 62-66, he played his last game of the season on August 22 before undergoing surgery. Without their highest-paid player — a coincidence that was tough to miss given his underperformance — the Tigers went a major league-best 24-10 and snatched the third AL Wild Card spot, their first playoff berth in a decade. Read the rest of this entry »

Things did not go well for the Cubs’ Ryan Pressly on Tuesday night against the Giants at Wrigley Field. Chicago had clawed its way back from a fourth-inning, 5-2 deficit, capped by a two-run, ninth-inning rally that sent the game into extra innings. After an uneventful 10th, all hell broke loose in the 11th, as Pressly failed to retire any of the eight batters he faced. By the time the dust settled, nine runs had scored, and unlike the Cubs’ April 18 game against the Diamondbacks, where they answered 10 eighth-inning runs with six of their own on the bottom of the frame and won 13-11, this time they fell 14-5.

As you might expect, it took a bad break or two to blow the doors open in that 11th inning. Following a double by Heliot Ramos and an RBI single by Patrick Bailey, Brett Wisely laid down a sacrifice bunt toward the first base side of the mound. Pressly fielded the ball and made an awkward, backhanded flip to Carson Kelly, but the ball dribbled under the catcher’s glove. Ramos was safe at home and Wisely reached first, still with nobody out. Mike Yastrzemski walked to load the bases, and then Willy Adames was hit by a pitch to force in Bailey. On the replay, it looked like a wild pitch that had gotten by Kelly, which would have advanced the runners and scored the run nonetheless, but home plate umpire Bill Miller ruled the ball had grazed Adames. The call was upheld after the Cubs challenged it, adding another baserunner to the mix, and consecutive singles by Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Wilmer Flores brought in four more runs (two on Chapman’s hit). With the score already a lopsided 11-5, Cubs manager Craig Counsell mercifully gave Pressly the hook.

The onslaught didn’t stop. Reliever Caleb Thielbar entered and finally recorded the first out by striking out Christian Koss before serving up an RBI double to Ramos. Bailey added a sacrifice fly before David Villar, pinch-hitting for Wisely, struck out. The Cubs went down in order against Kyle Harrison in the bottom of the 11th, and that was that. Read the rest of this entry »

While the Cubs are 22-15 and own a three-game lead in the NL Central — the largest of any team at this writing — the rotation that’s helped them to that perch has taken its hits recently. Last month, 2023 All-Star lefty Justin Steele underwent surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament, and Javier Assad suffered a setback while rehabbing to return from an oblique strain. And then on Monday, the Cubs placed 2024 All-Star lefty Shota Imanaga on the injured list due to a left hamstring strain. While his injury isn’t considered to be major, his loss could tighten the division race and test the depth of the already-depleted rotation.

After leaving his April 29 start against the Pirates after five innings due to cramps in both quadriceps, Imanaga cruised through the first five innings against the Brewers on Sunday in Milwaukee, allowing just three singles while striking out four without a walk. The 31-year-old’s afternoon ended on a sour note, however. With the game still scoreless in the sixth, he yielded a leadoff single to Jackson Chourio and then a one-out walk to William Contreras. It looked as though he might escape unscathed when he got Christian Yelich to ground to first baseman Michael Busch, who started a potential 3-6-1 double play. Imanaga ran to cover first base, but not only was Dansby Swanson’s throw a bit late, the pitcher came up limping, forcing him out of the game.

Reliever Julian Merryweather entered, threw a wild pitch that allowed Chourio to score from third, and by the time he got the final out, three more runs had scored in what ended as a 4-0 loss for the Cubs. They suffered a much more gruesome defeat on Tuesday, when reliever Ryan Pressly allowed eight straight Giants to reach base in what became a nine-run 11th inning and a 14-5 drubbing. Read the rest of this entry »

Though they’ve lost two straight to trim their AL West lead to a single game, the Mariners are a first-place team thanks to a recent 16-4 stretch that has boosted their record to 20-14. As I noted last week, their success for a change hasn’t been driven by the strength of their rotation, which has been without George Kirby thus far due to shoulder inflammation and is now without Logan Gilbert, who landed on the IL in late April with a flexor strain. Rather, Seattle been carried by an exceptionally potent offense, a marked contrast from recent years, particularly 2024, when the team’s failure to score contributed to the August firings of manager Scott Servais and hitting coach Jarret DeHart. These Mariners have benefited not only from Cal Raleigh’s heavy hitting, but from the ongoing presence of Randy Arozarena, who was acquired just before last year’s trade deadline, and rebounds from players who struggled due to injuries last season, such as J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco. The return of Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez to their coaching staff has helped, and it does appear as though T-Mobile Park has been a bit more forgiving than usual.

Raleigh and Polanco are the hitters getting the headlines. Raleigh is currently slashing .240/.359/.574 with a major league-high 12 homers, and he ranks third in the AL in slugging percentage behind only Aaron Judge and Alex Bregman, and fourth in the league in wRC+ behind those two and Jonathan Aranda(!). While Polanco doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title because an oblique strain has limited him to swinging left-handed and to DHing instead of playing the field, he’s hit a ridiculous .369/.407/.750 (233 wRC+) with nine homers in just 92 plate appearances (14 short of qualifying). Crawford is batting .294/.417/.404 (151 wRC+) and Arozarena .224/.366/.414 (136 wRC+). Both players are walking over 15% of the time, with Raleigh drawing a pass 14.4% of the time; the team’s 11.2% walk rate leads the majors.

All of that has helped the Mariners withstand a comparatively slow start by Julio Rodríguez (.206/.308/.375, 103 wRC+) and a wave of injuries that has forced right fielder Victor Robles, outfielder-first baseman Luke Raley, utilityman Dylan Moore, and second baseman Ryan Bliss to the injured list alongside the aforementioned rotation stalwarts [Update: Moore was activated just after this article was published]. Even so, the Mariners have gotten a 100 wRC+ or better from every position besides first base (where Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano, Raley and Moore have combined for a 60 wRC+) and right field (where six players, among them the injured Robles, Raley and Moore, have combined for a 90 wRC+). Read the rest of this entry »

Through the first five weeks of the 2025 season, the best you could say about Mike Trout was that he was at least healthy enough to play every day and was hitting a lot of home runs. However, the 33-year-old slugger departed Wednesday’s game against the Mariners with soreness in his surgically repaired left knee following a sprint to first base, and while he remained on the active roster for Thursday’s game, afterwards, the Angels placed him on the injured list with a bone bruise in the knee. That’s not a worst-case scenario, but it’s frustrating news on top of what’s already been a slow start.

Trout entered this season with more question marks hanging over his head than at any point in his 15-year career. After playing just 82 games in 2023 due to a fractured hamate bone — including just one after July 3 — he was limited to 29 games last year due to a torn meniscus in his left knee. He underwent surgery, but instead of the typical four-to-six week timetable, he needed nearly three months before beginning a rehab stint, and then played just two innings for Triple-A Salt Lake City before exiting due to discomfort in the same knee. After he flew back to Anaheim for further evaluation, he was diagnosed with another meniscus tear, requiring season-ending surgery.

Upon reporting to the Angels’ spring training facility in Tempe, Arizona in February, Trout met with general manager Perry Minasian and manager Ron Washington, and together they decided that the best course of action would be to move the 11-time All-Star center fielder to right field in order to save his body some wear and tear. Up until Wednesday, the plan seemed to be working; he’d played all 29 of the Angels’ games (matching last year’s total) with seven starts at DH interspersed with his appearances in right field. His .179/.264/.462 batting line, 96 wRC+, and 0.1 WAR aren’t anything to write home about, but he’s been hitting the ball hard on contact. His nine homers are enough to tie him for third in the American League alongside Tyler Soderstrom, Spencer Torkelson, and teammate Logan O’Hoppe, behind only Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Read the rest of this entry »

Yordan Alvarez is one of the best hitters on the planet. From 2021-24, only Aaron Judge produced a higher wRC+ than Alvarez’s 165, and only five players surpassed his total of 136 home runs. During that time, the slugger helped the Astros to two pennants and a championship, furthering his legend with some dramatic postseason homers as well. Yet so far in 2025, Alvarez has struggled mightily. In fact, he closed April with a WAR below zero (-0.1) after posting 5.3 WAR last season.

Through 28 games, Alvarez is hitting .219/.316/.354, well shy of last year’s typically stellar .308/.392/.567. In fact, his 81-point drop in wRC+ is the fourth largest among players who took 300 plate appearances last year and have made at least 80 this season:

So what’s going on with Alvarez? He’s actually hitting the ball harder than he did last year or the year before, at least if we’re measuring only by average exit velocity — which isn’t a great way to go:

Read the rest of this entry »

Particularly in light of their failure to upgrade their roster this winter, starting pitching is the foundation of the Seattle Mariners. Last year, four of their starters took at least 30 turns, and the unit posted the majors’ lowest ERA (3.38) while ranking either first or second in the American League in FIP and WAR as well. But while this year’s Mariners are currently running first in the AL West at 17-12, their rotation has scuffled, in part because it’s far from whole. George Kirby, who led the staff in WAR last year, began the season on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, and now Logan Gilbert, who made the All-Star team and received Cy Young votes, has joined him there due to a flexor strain.

The 27-year-old Gilbert made his sixth start of the season on Friday night at T-Mobile Park against the Marlins. While the results were impressive — he needed just 29 pitches to throw three perfect innings, striking out three — his average four-seam fastball velocity was down 1.1 mph from his season average of 95.6, and his slider and curve were a bit slower than usual as well. He did not return for the fourth inning, replaced by reliever Casey Lawrence, and the Mariners soon announced that he had departed due to forearm tightness.

“I felt it a little bit warming up,” said Gilbert. “Just never really went away. Sometimes you just get going and it feels a little better. Tonight, it just didn’t.” Read the rest of this entry »