When the Mets signed Juan Soto to a 15-year deal last December, they expected him to be the heaviest hitter on a contending team, a player who would factor into the Most Valuable Player voting. Odds are that they didn’t price his base-stealing ability into his record-setting, $765-million contract, yet with just under three weeks remaining in the regular season, the 26-year-old slugger has not only set a career high in steals, but he might very well become the first player this season to join the 30-homer, 30-steal club.

Despite a slow start that included just three home runs and two stolen bases through the end of April, Soto has clubbed 38 homers and is just three away from his career high, set last year with the Yankees. He’s already had additional seasons with 34 and 35 homers (2019 and ’23, respectively), so any total in that range is hardly out of the norm. What’s remarkable is that he now has 29 steals, a country mile beyond his previous career high (he stole 12 in both 2019 and ’23), and more than he swiped from 2022–24 combined (25 steals). At this writing, he’s third in the NL in homers but 11 behind leader Kyle Schwarber. By comparison, he’s fifth in the league in steals but just eight off the lead, held by Oneil Cruz.

Soto stole seven bases (in 11 attempts) last year, and averaged about nine steals for the 2021–24 span. He added five steals in May to those two in April, but he stole just two more in June. Once July hit, though, and especially after the All-Star break, he started running more frequently, with four of his six steals for the month coming in a nine-game span from July 19–28. He’s maintained a similar clip since then, with 11 steals in August — tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the major league lead in that month — and three more in September. That’s a major league-leading 18 steals in 20 attempts over his past 45 games, a 65-steal pace! Chisholm is second over that same span with 17. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. We’ve got a nice little streak of four straight weeks going, something that  hasn’t happened since May and June, just before the summer travel began.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, in case you missed it, I wrote a tribute to Davey Johnson, who passed away over the weekend. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/davey-johnson-1943-2025-a-man-ahead-of-the…

12:05

Jay Jaffe: I’m more convinced than ever that Johnson belongs in the Hall. Nothing against Lou Piniella, who missed by one vote on the 2024 Era Committee ballot while Jim Leyland got elected — with Johnson in the “5 votes or fewer scrum — but Johnson’s managerial career is superior to Piniella’s in everything but length, and he was a real innovator in terms of his usage of personal computers and his carrying on the Earl Weaver legacy.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, I’ve got a piece in the pipeline today about candidates for the 30-30 club. Would you believe Juan Soto is the closest to joining from among this year’s crop, and that he has more steals over the past ~2 months than any major leaguer? Yeah, weird times.

12:12

Jay Jaffe: I touched upon this a few weeks ago when I did my Hall of Fame progress series (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…). I think the answer might be Chris Sale, who is 36 years old, has 143 wins, and has the next-highest S-JAWS after Verlander, Kershaw, and Scherzer (49.2). I don’t see him getting to 200 wins, but 3,000 strikeouts is a possibility (he needs 454), and between his perennial Cy Young candidacy and his bWAR rankings (including six times in his league’s top 5), I think he’s going to be the best choice we see for a few years.

Read the rest of this entry »

As both a player and a manager, Davey Johnson was a standout and a man ahead of the curve. In a 13-season playing career that spanned from 1965 to ’78, primarily as a second baseman with the Orioles and Braves, he made four All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves, played in three World Series, and set a home run record. In a 17-season managerial career that stretched from 1984 to 2013, covered five different teams, and included a decade-long hiatus, Johnson won six division titles, one Wild Card berth, a championship, and two Manager of the Year awards. He’s indelibly linked to the Mets, first for making the final out in their 1969 upset of the Orioles and then for piloting their ’86 juggernaut to a World Series win at the peak of a six-season run.

Johnson had a knack for turning around losing teams, and for connecting with his players. Decades before the analytical revolution took hold in baseball, he was a pioneer in the use of personal computers by managers, at a time when the machines were still a novelty. Drawing upon his offseason studies at Trinity University — from which he earned a B.S. in mathematics — and Johns Hopkins, as well as his experience playing for Earl Weaver with the Orioles, he was renowned for using statistical databases to figure out probabilities and optimize his lineup and bullpen matchups.

Johnson, who last worked in baseball as a consultant for the Nationals in 2014, died on Friday in Sarasota, Florida following a long illness. He was 82 years old. Read the rest of this entry »

Roman Anthony has made quite an impact for the Red Sox this season. When the no. 2 prospect on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list was summoned to Boston in June, the Red Sox were 32-35, closer to last place in the AL East than first. Less than a week after he arrived, Boston traded away Rafael Devers, and since then Anthony has been nothing less than the team’s top hitter while helping it post the AL’s best record over that span. Alas, the 21-year-old phenom may not be able to help the Red Sox nail down a Wild Card spot, as an oblique strain will likely sideline him for at least the remainder of the regular season — and perhaps longer.

Anthony suffered the injury during the fourth inning of Tuesday’s game against the Guardians at Fenway Park. He felt something on his left side after a checked swing, then struck out swinging at the next pitch, after which he grabbed his lower left side while walking away from the plate.

Anthony didn’t return to the field for the top of the fifth inning; instead, he was replaced by Nate Eaton. An MRI taken on Wednesday morning revealed what the outfielder told reporters is a Grade 2 strain, an injury that typically takes four to six weeks to heal. Read the rest of this entry »

For a good chunk of this season, a third MVP award for Aaron Judge looked inevitable. As late as May 21, he still had a batting average above .400 (.402/.491/.755, good for a 236 wRC+). As late as July 25, he had played every game and was on pace for 58 homers. And as late as August 6, he still had a slugging percentage above .700 (.339/.446/.702).

Unfortunately, a right flexor strain suffered while attempting to throw a runner out at the plate on July 22 sent Judge to the injured list a few day later. While he spent only the minimum 10 days on the IL, his bat cooled off, and now he’s neck-and-neck with Cal Raleigh in the AL MVP race. But even if he doesn’t win, the 33-year-old Judge has done something very impressive. In just his 10th major league season, he’s surpassed the JAWS standard for right fielders, which is to say that he’s got a higher score (58.5) than the average enshrinee at the position (56.0).

With that distinction, Judge joins Mike Trout and Mookie Betts among active players to reach the JAWS standard at their positions by the time they fulfilled the Hall of Fame’s 10-year eligibility requirement (playing in parts of 10 seasons, not accruing 10 years of service time). That’s the province of legends; among position players whose careers crossed into the 21st century, the only others to attain that distinction are Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Rickey Henderson, Mike Piazza, Albert Pujols, Cal Ripken Jr., and Alex Rodriguez. That makes Judge an apt choice to lead off the third and final installment of this year’s annual Hall of Fame progress series (pitchers and catchers are here, infielders here). Note that unless otherwise indicated, all WAR figures within refer to the Baseball Reference version, and all statistics are through September 1. Read the rest of this entry »

Aside from a brief run last October — one that culminated with a surprise cameo to close out last year’s World Series — Walker Buehler has scarcely resembled the pitcher who from 2019–21 made two All-Star teams and helped the Dodgers win a championship. The Red Sox took a shot at fixing him, and now the Phillies will try as well, hoping at the very least that he can provide some useful innings down the stretch and land a spot on their playoff roster.

The 31-year-old Buehler, who signed a one-year, $21.05 million deal with Boston in January, was roughed up for a 5.45 ERA and 5.89 FIP in 112.1 innings with the Red Sox, slightly higher than his marks with the Dodgers last year (5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP in 75.1 innings) after returning from his second Tommy John surgery. He made 22 starts for the Red Sox, but his continued struggles led the team to pull him from the rotation after his August 19 start, a four-inning, four-walk, two-run outing against the Orioles. After just one relief appearance, in which he allowed two runs in 2.1 innings against the Yankees on August 24, the Red Sox released him last Friday while still owing him roughly $3.4 million.

The Red Sox — who at 77-62 are tied for the AL Wild Card lead despite weathering numerous starting pitcher injuries and disappointments — had considered replacing Buehler in the rotation with rookie Richard Fitts. But when the 25-year-old rookie landed on the injured list due to a bout of neuritis in his right arm, the team needed to add another starter, and the call-up of prospect Payton Tolle cost Buehler his spot on the 40-man roster. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all enjoyed your three-day weekends. I had a lovely one here, one that included a surprise solo parenting job as I took my daughter and her friend to see the Brooklyn Cyclones on Sunday; my wife planned to go instead of the friend, but came down with a migraine (ugh). Fortunately, it all went well, everybody had fun and I came home with the same number of kids I brought.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a thing on Walker Buehler joining the Phillies that’s about to go live. Did some injury roundups as they pertain to contenders late last week. Here’s the NL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/watch-those-fingers-a-roundup-of-recent-in…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: And here’s the AL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-roundup-of-recent-injuries-among-the-al-…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: pour one out for Corey Seager, yeesh.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Ok, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers really can’t catch a break. Just after I wrote about Nathan Eovaldi’s sneaky great season, the 35-year-old righty briefly took over the official AL ERA lead. Before he could make another start, however, the Rangers announced that Eovaldi would likely miss the remainder of the season due to a rotator cuff strain. As if losing their most effective starting pitcher wasn’t enough, the Rangers also announced on Thursday that Corey Seager, their top hitter, had undergone an appendectomy, putting the rest of his season in doubt.

With his seven-inning, nine-strikeout, one-run effort against the Guardians last Friday, Eovaldi lowered his ERA to 1.73 in 130 innings, exactly enough to qualify based on the Rangers’ 130 games to that point. With that, he snuck ahead of Tarik Skubal (2.32), Hunter Brown (2.36) and Garrett Crochet (2.46) on the AL leaderboard, completing a game of catch-up caused primarily by his missing nearly all of June due to posterior elbow inflammation. Unfortunately, post-start soreness led Eovaldi to shut down his regularly scheduled bullpen session and get an MRI, which revealed a rotator cuff strain.

The 31-year-old Seager has hit .271/.373/.487 for a team-high 136 wRC+; his 21 homers and 3.9 WAR are also tops on the Rangers. He already made two trips to the injured list in April and May for a recurrent right hamstring strain and so has played just 102 games, that after being limited to 123 last year by a sports hernia and 119 in 2023 due to a left hamstring strain and a right thumb sprain. He’s been replaced on the roster by infielder Dylan Moore, who was recently released by the Mariners, but the likely replacement for him in the lineup is superutilityman Josh Smith, who has hit .256/.333/.378 (101 wRC+) while playing every position besides pitcher and catcher. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a rough season for Francisco Alvarez — and specifically his hands. The 23-year-old catcher fractured a hamate in his left hand while taking batting practice on March 8, and after undergoing surgery, missed the first four weeks of the regular season. He scuffled upon returning, to the point that the Mets optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse in late June, but particularly since returning in late July, he hit well until he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament of his right thumb (as opposed to the UCL of his elbow) while making a headfirst slide on August 17. The injury, which requires surgery to fix, appeared to be season-ending, but to the Mets’ surprise, Alvarez has been able to swing the bat without pain, so he began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday. Unfortunately, in his third plate appearance of the game, he was hit on the left pinkie by an 89-mph sinker and had to leave the game.

Alvarez, who also missed seven weeks last year due to surgery to repair a torn UCL in his left thumb, was sent for testing after being removed. At this writing, the Mets have yet to reveal his prognosis, but this may set back his return, and he’ll still need another surgery this offseason. When available, he’s been one of the Mets’ more productive hitters, a big step up from the team’s other catchers on the offensive side. In 56 games, he’s hit for a career high 125 wRC+ (.265/.349/.438) with seven homers in 209 plate appearances, good for 1.4 WAR. Luis Torrens, who hit well while serving as the team’s regular catcher during Alvarez’s early-season absence, has slumped to the point that he’s batting .218/.282/.320 (73 wRC+) in 245 PA, and third-stringer Hayden Senger has been even less productive, hitting .180/.227/.197 (22 wRC+) in 67 PA.

[Update: On Thursday afternoon, Alvarez revealed that his pinkie is fractured. He said he hopes to play again this season, but a timeline for that has yet to be determined.]

The Mets, who are now 72-61, just swept a three-game series against the Phillies (76-57) at Citi Field to pull within four games of the NL East leaders. They’ve won eight of their last 11 games after losing 14 of 16 from July 28 to August 15, a skid that bumped them down to third in the NL Wild Card race, though they now have a 4 1/2-game cushion over the Reds (68-66). They’ve got some other injuries that could affect their drive for a playoff spot, but in that, they’re not alone. What follows here is a roundup of fairly recent injuries among NL contenders, some that slipped through the cracks in our coverage during recent weeks and others that merit mention so long as we’re on the topic; an alarming number of these involve fingers. I’ll go division-by-division, and follow this with a similar AL roundup. Read the rest of this entry »

Early in the season, the American League Most Valuable Player race didn’t look like much of a race at all. Continuing a stretch of dominance dating back to the latter days of April 2024, Aaron Judge was destroying opposing pitching at a level not seen since Barry Bonds, putting himself on a pace to challenge his 2022 AL record of 62 home runs and even flirting with a .400 batting average. He couldn’t maintain that breakneck clip, however, and while he’s cooled off, Cal Raleigh has closed the gap, setting a home run record of his own while powering the Mariners’ bid for a playoff spot.

On Sunday against the Athletics at T-Mobile Park, Raleigh went 3-for-5 with a pair of two-run homers, both off lefty Jacob Lopez; the first had an estimated distance of 448 feet — his longest of the season — and the second 412 feet. On Monday against the Padres, Raleigh went deep against JP Sears, a solo homer with an estimated distance of 419 feet.

The home runs against the A’s were Raleigh’s 48th and 49th of the season; with them, he tied and then surpassed Salvador Perez’s 2021 total to claim the single season record for a player whose primary position is catcher. The shot against the Padres was his 50th, an unfathomable number for a player who spends most of his days squatting behind the plate. Read the rest of this entry »