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Struggling to Fill Buster Posey’s Shoes, Joey Bart Is Sent Down

Joey Bart
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Since the day he was selected with the second pick of the 2018 draft out of Georgia Tech, Joey Bart was considered the heir apparent to Buster Posey. His progress to the majors was closely tracked, and when Posey opted out of playing during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season for family reasons, Bart arrived in the majors ahead of schedule. When Posey retired suddenly last fall after a stellar age-34 season, all eyes turned to Bart as well. His major league career thus far hasn’t gone as hoped, however, and on Wednesday the Giants optioned the struggling backstop to Triple-A Sacramento.

With Posey putting together an All-Star season as he helped the Giants to a franchise record 107 wins, Bart was left with some oversized shoes to fill, but he began the season with great fanfare, homering on Opening Day off the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. Alas, the 25-year-old backstop has hit a meager .156/.296/.300 with four homers in 108 plate appearances overall. He started 21 of the team’s first 34 games, capped by a ninth-inning homer off Albert Pujols (!) on May 15, but after that, he started just eight of 20 games, going 2-for-25 with 15 strikeouts.

Particularly with the team going 9–11 in that span, and 3–5 in the games Bart started, the Giants felt some adjustments were in order, and that they would best be made in the minors. Via The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said, “Our sense was it was weighing a little more on Joey. It’s one thing to be struggling and still feel like the team is firing on all cylinders. That allows you to be in a better mindset. But when it starts weighing a little more, an intervention makes sense.”

Via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser, Zaidi said, “We still think Joey is an everyday catcher… In the broader scheme of things, we thought it made sense to get him a little bit of a reset. We’re very open to the notion that at-bats at Triple-A out of the spotlight can help get a guy on track.”

Via MLB.com’s Maria Guardado, manager Gabe Kapler reiterated the team’s commitment to Bart but said, “The number one message is that he has some adjustments that he needs to make.” More:

Kapler said the Giants would like to see Bart even out his shoulders and hips, as well as have more of a gather on his front side to help him cut down on some of the swing-and-miss in his game and tap into more of his right-handed power. The first order of action, though, will be to give Bart a bit of a breather following one of the more challenging stretches of his young career.

As for that swing-and-miss, while Bart’s overall 81 wRC+ is nothing to write home about, it’s only three points below the major league average for all catchers. Of much greater concern is his 45.4% strikeout rate, the highest of any player with at least 100 PA:

Highest Strikeout Rates Among Batters
Player Team PA K% AVG OBP SLG wRC+
Joey Bart SFG 108 45.4% .156 .296 .300 81
Brett Phillips TBR 120 42.5% .178 .246 .327 71
Franmil Reyes CLE 145 39.3% .195 .255 .278 56
Joey Gallo NYY 160 38.1% .186 .288 .329 84
Mike Zunino TBR 120 37.5% .152 .200 .313 50
Eli White TEX 107 35.5% .196 .271 .278 64
Patrick Wisdom CHC 213 35.2% .222 .305 .476 115
Luke Voit SDP 154 33.8% .227 .325 .371 101
Chris Taylor LAD 203 33.5% .257 .335 .453 120
Chad Pinder OAK 154 33.1% .248 .281 .407 101
Minimum 100 plate appearances. All statistics through June 7.

In the 74 plate appearances in which he’s reached two strikes, Bart has hit just .060/.160/.104; that’s 4-for-67 with eight walks, a homer, and a 66.1% strikeout rate. That’s not much better than what major league pitchers hit with two strikes on them in 2019 (.076/.103/.093) while striking out 67.8% of the time. Read the rest of this entry »


With Their Losing Streak at 12, the Angels Do Something by Firing Joe Maddon

Joe Maddon
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Two weeks ago, the Angels beat the Rangers to climb to 27–17 and pull within a game of the AL West-leading Astros. While they had slipped out of first place in the midst of a four-game losing streak earlier that week, they owned the league’s fourth-best record and appeared to be on track to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014. They haven’t won since, however, and with their losing streak reaching 12 games, on Tuesday they fired manager Joe Maddon and named Phil Nevin as interim manager for the remainder of the season, then dropped their 13th straight game with a 10-inning loss to the Red Sox.

The losing streak is the longest in the majors this year and the longest single-season skid in franchise history; it matches a wraparound streak of 13 straight that spanned from late 1988 to early ’89 (a stretch that encompassed the entirety of the Moose Stubing managerial era, such as it was). The current streak, which offsets what had been the team’s best 44-game start since 2004, has dropped the Angels to 27–30, 9.5 games behind the first-place Astros and 2.5 out of the third Wild Card spot. Their Playoff Odds, which stood at 77% before the streak began, with a 20.1% chance of winning the division and a 3.6% chance of winning the World Series, are down to 26.7%, with a 1.9% chance at the division and a 0.7% chance of winning the World Series.

The Angels were outscored 78–35 over the 12 games that preceded Maddon’s firing. Few things were going right at either end, as they allowed 6.5 runs per game and scored a hair under three per game, though four of those losses were by a single run (as was Tuesday’s post-firing defeat). A few major factors have contributed to the slide, including Mike Trout’s ill-timed slump, a couple of key injuries, and a particularly rough schedule. Read the rest of this entry »


With Ryu Down Again, Toronto’s Rotation Takes a Hit

Hyun-jin Ryu
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees have been the hottest team in baseball over the past two weeks. Thanks in large part to an impressive run by their rotation, they’ve won six in a row and 10 out of 12 to open up a seven-game AL East lead. The Blue Jays have quietly kept pace during that stretch, overtaking the Rays for second place in the division by winning 10 of 12 themselves, including eight straight from May 24 to June 2. Even so, their chances of closing the gap on the Yankees have taken a hit with the loss of Hyun Jin Ryu. Last week, the team revealed that the 35-year-old lefty has suffered a forearm strain and elbow inflammation and will be out “multiple weeks” at the very least.

This is already Ryu’s second trip to the injured list this season. After lasting just 7.1 innings over his first two starts and allowing a total of 11 runs, he landed on the IL on April 17 with what was described as forearm inflammation. Upon returning to the Blue Jays on May 14, he fared somewhat better, yielding just six runs (five earned) in 19.2 innings over four starts, but his average four-seam fastball velocity decreased by about one mile per hour from outing to outing, from a high of 90.3 mph on May 14 to a low of 87.6 on June 1 — a troubling trend.

Overall, Ryu has pitched to a 5.33 ERA and 4.81 FIP in 27 innings, that on the heels of a season in which he was merely solid (4.37 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 2.5 WAR in 169 innings) rather than the Cy Young contender he had been in 2019 with the Dodgers (when he led the NL with a 2.32 ERA and made his first All-Star team) and ’20 with the Blue Jays.

“Forearm strain” is always an ominous phrase when it comes to pitcher injuries because of its lack of specificity. Sometimes such a strain turns out to be UCL-related, a precursor to Tommy John surgery; even when it’s not, a flexor strain can mean anything from a few weeks to multiple months lost. In the wake of the announcement, Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo wouldn’t speculate as to whether surgery would be required and said that the team is getting second opinions on Ryu’s injury. Read the rest of this entry »


Elite Rotation Helps Yankees to Majors’ Best Start in 21 Years

Jameson Taillon
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

With six straight wins and a 39–15 record, the Yankees are the best team in baseball right now. One-third of the way through the season, they have the best record of any team since the 2001 Mariners (42–12) and are just two games off the pace of the 1998 Yankees (41–13). While an offense that leads the majors in homers (80) and wRC+ (117) and is second in the AL in scoring (4.78 runs per game) has been a big part of that success, lately they’ve been dominating opponents thanks to incredible starting pitching.

Even at a time when starter usage is on the rebound from its pandemic-driven trends, what the Yankees have done lately particularly stands out. Consider what the starters have accomplished during this winning streak:

Yankees’ Starters Since May 31
Player Date Opp Rslt IP H R BB SO HR Pit BF
Jordan Montgomery 5/31/22 LAA W 9-1 7 4 1 1 4 1 87 25
Nestor Cortes 6/2/22 LAA W 6-1 7 5 0 2 7 0 96 27
Jameson Taillon 6/2/22 LAA W 2-1 8 2 1 0 5 0 101 26
Gerrit Cole 6/3/22 DET W 13-0 7 2 0 0 9 0 102 23
Luis Severino 6/4/22 DET W 3-0 7 1 0 1 10 0 92 22
Jordan Montgomery 6/5/22 DET W 5-4 6.1 5 2 1 5 0 90 24
Total 42.1 19 4 5 40 1 568 147
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

That’s a 0.85 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and 27.2% strikeout rate for those starters while holding opposing hitters to a .134/.163/.190 line. The run includes back-to-back perfect game bids by Taillon and Cole, the first time that has happened since at least 1961, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Taillon retired the first 21 Angels he faced on Thursday before Jared Walsh hit a 95.3 mph grounder up the middle that deflected off the glove of a sliding Isiah Kiner-Falefa as he ranged across second base.

Taillon got the next two outs, then allowed an RBI single by Kurt Suzuki before escaping the frame, but even so, it was his second eight-inning, two-hit start in a row.

The next night, Cole came within one out of matching Taillon’s bid before Jonathan Schoop ripped a 108-mph single past DJ LeMahieu.

The day after that, Severino allowed only a second-inning single by Miguel Cabrera, after which he joked to reporters, “I mean, I’m afraid of getting traded if I don’t get to six or seven [innings]. Not good enough.”

No joking: six or seven innings has become standard for Yankees starters lately. Over their past 15 games — a span that began with a May 22 doubleheader against the White Sox — New York starters have thrown at least six innings in 14 out of 15 games, the exception being a scoreless five-inning spot start by call-up JP Sears, the first start of his career. Four times in that span, Yankees starters have gone eight innings, and six other times they’ve gone at least seven. Over that stretch, the starters have a 1.15 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and a 25.4% strikeout rate and have held opposing hitters to a .158/.200/.234 line. That’ll work. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/22

2:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat! A bit of housekeeping before I dive in…

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on Joc Pederson’s non-fantasy football exploits, mainly based upon his pulverizing of baseballs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joc-pedersons-giant-step-forward

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a look at Noah Syndergaard’s new-look approach https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-look-syndergaard-struggles-in-return-t… and earlier this week I checked in on Dominic Smith’s demotion https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dominic-smiths-slide-sends-him-back-to-tri… and a rough weekend for the White Sox https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/underachieving-white-sox-drop-keuchel-…

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There will be no chat in this spot next week as it’s the last day of school for my daughter, but the week after that, I’ll be rappin’ at ya from Cape Cod!

2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Oh, and I spoke to the great Jayson Stark about the late, great Roger Angell for this week’s FanGraphs Audio podcast! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jayson-stark-on-roger-ange…

2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »


Joc Pederson’s Giant Step Forward

Joc Pederson
John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

As far as silly and offbeat sports stories go, it would be hard to top the fantasy football spat between Reds outfielder Tommy Pham and Giants outfielder Joc Pederson. Last week, Pham — who annually leads the league in umbrage taken and who has already made headlines this year by challenging Luke Voit to a fight — drew a fine and a three-game suspension for slapping Pederson in a pre-game confrontation. Not stopping there, earlier this week, he dragged league commissioner Mike Trout into the dispute. It’s all rather comical, but lost in all of this beyond his characteristically bemused response to the whole matter is that Pederson is off to a terrific start with the Giants, putting up some eye-opening numbers.

Before we go further — and then I promise you that we’ll move onto baseball — here’s Joc explaining his side of the football story for those of you whose attention was elsewhere:

Moving along… After winning a World Series ring for a second year in a row (with the Dodgers in 2020 and then with the Braves last fall), Pederson joined the Giants via a one-year, $6 million deal in mid-March. It was the second year in a row that he had to take a slight pay cut, but then neither of his last two seasons had been up to par. He entered 2020 as a career 119 wRC+ hitter who beyond his cup-of-coffee 2014 season had only once slipped below 116 (100 in an injury-marred 2017), but he hit just .190/.285/.397 (86 wRC+) with -0.2 WAR in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and then .238/.310/.422 (93 wRC+) with 0.3 WAR last year for the Cubs (who signed him to a one-year, $7 million deal) and Braves (who acquired him in mid-July).

Pederson more than made up for his in-season struggles in both 2020 and ’21 by hitting a combined .282/.341/.474 with five homers in 85 PA in the two postseasons — Joctober is his month — and, improbably, introducing pearl necklaces as a fashion accessory for men. His three-run pinch-hit homer in Game 3 of the Division Series against the Brewers’ Adrian Houser provided all of the runs the Braves needed to close out that take a two-games-to-one lead in that series, and his two-run homer off the Dodgers’ Max Scherzer in Game 2 of the NLCS helped send his former team to defeat. The necklace he sported as a good luck charm became so famous that he donated it to the Baseball Hall of Fame, and the Braves’ gaudy World Series ring even featured a single pearl as a tribute to his iconic display.

In joining the Giants, Pederson figured to see action primarily as part of a left field platoon, with right field and designated hitter possibilities as well, and so far things have gone according to plan. He’s started 22 times in left, eight at DH, and six in right, with all but one of those starts coming against righties. The Giants have used four different players as his platoon-mates in left, a situation necessitated in part by Brandon Belt landing on the injured list twice (once for COVID-19, and currently for knee inflammation) and righty-swinging Darin Ruf getting a share of the work manning first base in Belt’s absence.

So far, few things have gone as right for the Giants this year as the Pederson signing. The 30-year-old slugger has hit .268/.340/.583 with 12 home runs, including three in a wild game against the Mets on May 24, a career first and a first for a Giant at AT&T Park. While his total of 144 plate appearances leaves him 11 short of qualifying for the batting title, his slugging percentage ranks fourth in the National League among players with at least 140 PA, and his 157 wRC+ ranks fifth. Those 12 homers are a team high and tied for sixth in the league; the 13 other players in the NL with at least 10 homers all have at least 189 PA, and 10 of them have at least 200. Read the rest of this entry »


New-Look Syndergaard Struggles in Return to New York

Noah Syndergaard
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Noah Syndergaard’s return to New York on Tuesday night did not go well. In his first start in the Big Apple since signing with the Angels last November, the 29-year-old righty gave up five runs and didn’t make it out of the third inning as his team extended its losing streak to six games via a 9–1 thrashing at the hands of the Yankees. After missing nearly all of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, a pitcher who was the game’s hardest-throwing starter is in the process of reinventing himself, but the results have been rather uneven.

Syndergaard agreed to a one-year, $21 million deal with the Angels last November, a day before the deadline for him to accept or reject the $18.4 million qualifying offer he received from the Mets. He missed all of the 2020 season after tearing his UCL in March and then made just two one-inning starts last year following setbacks in his rehab — first a bout of inflammation in his right elbow in late May, then a positive COVID-19 test in late August — so it would not have been a surprise for him to stay in Queens on a one-year deal and rebuild his value. And while Syndergaard had interest from multiple suitors, some of them willing to sign him to a multi-year deal despite his long absence, he told reporters that he was intrigued by the Angels’ plan to keep him healthy. Via MLBcom’s Rhett Bollinger:

“It was a no-brainer once I had that sitdown meeting with Perry,” Syndergaard said Friday. “He had a really in-depth plan of attack to get me back to where I was in 2015, ’16 and ’18. Not pitching for two years, he had a great game plan that I’m 100% confident in that’s gonna keep me healthy and allow me to flourish and blossom to my true potential.”

The idea of pitching in a six-man rotation appealed to Syndergaard, as it’ll help keep his innings total at a manageable level in his first full season back from his elbow surgery. The Angels utilize the six-man rotation to make room for two-way star Shohei Ohtani, who stayed mostly healthy throughout the 2021 season while making 23 starts and throwing 130 1/3 innings.

Syndergaard said his innings total will be limited next season, but he didn’t have a total in mind just yet.

For that stretch that Syndergaard mentioned, he was one of the top pitchers in baseball… when he was available. From 2015 to ’18, only Clayton Kershaw outdid Syndergaard’s 2.66 FIP; only Kershaw, teammate Jacob deGrom, and Max Scherzer beat his 2.93 ERA; and only eight pitchers had a higher strikeout-walk differential than his 21.6% (27.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate). Syndergaard’s 14.4 WAR for that period ranked “only” 15th because he threw just 518.1 innings in that span, the majors’ 71st-highest total. A strained latissimus dorsi limited him to just seven starts and 30.1 innings in 2017 (who can forget his refusal to take an MRI for shoulder and biceps discomfort, followed by a 1.1-inning start and then a nearly five-month absence?), and then he missed nearly seven weeks in 2018 due to a strained ligament in his right index finger. Read the rest of this entry »


Dominic Smith’s Slide Sends Him Back to Triple-A

When the National League adopted the designated hitter for good as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Mets figured to be among the Senior Circuit’s top beneficiaries given their stockpile of defensively limited hitters at corner positions. Within that group, Dominic Smith appeared most likely to take advantage of the extra spot in the lineup, whether he was the DH or played the field while someone else did, effectively giving him a do-over after a miserable, injury-marred 2021 season. It hasn’t worked out that way, however, so on Tuesday, the Mets optioned the struggling Smith to Triple-A Syracuse.

The 26-year-old Smith is hitting just .186/.287/.256 (67 wRC+) and has yet to homer through his first 101 plate appearances, a showing that’s a step down even from last year’s limp .244/.304/.363 (86 wRC+) line, which at least featured 10 home runs in 493 PA. That said, where Smith’s dreadful defensive work in left field (-3.8 UZR, -5 DRS, -9 OAA in just 859.2 innings) dragged last year’s WAR down to -1.0, this year he’s been kept out of the outfield, starting 14 games at first base — where he’s more or less an average defender by the metrics — and another eight at DH, leaving him at exactly 0.0 WAR on the year, so there’s that.

In a major league career that’s covered all or part of six seasons, Smith has rarely found middle ground. Chosen as the 11th overall pick out of a Gardena, California high school in 2013, he reached the majors four years later, but in 49 games that year and 56 in ’18, he hit just .210/.259/.406 (78 wRC+) in 332 PA, with 14 home runs but not much else. His conditioning was an issue — the six-foot first baseman reportedly weighed as much as 260 pounds, 21 above his currently-listed weight — and so was sleep apnea. Smith was diagnosed with the condition while at Double-A Binghamton in 2016 but had stopped sleeping with his CPAP mask after a year; he didn’t get enough rest and often struggled with his stamina and concentration.

After taking steps to address both issues, Smith was much improved in 2019, hitting a robust .282/.355/.525 (134 wRC+). However, he had two problems: first, 2016 second-round pick Pete Alonso, the team’s top prospect, won the first base job and hit 53 homers en route to All-Star and Rookie of the Year honors; and second, Smith suffered a stress reaction in his left foot and made just one plate appearance after July 27, a walk-off three-run homer against the Braves on September 29. That impressive line spanned just 197 PA; Alonso’s presence led to Smith starting just eight games at first plus 27 in left field while coming off the bench 54 times, 37 of those as a pinch-hitter.

The pandemic-shortened 2020 season brought the DH to the NL on a full-time basis, which opened up a path to everyday play for Smith. Starting 22 times at first base (17 with Alonso DHing), 21 in left field (eep), and five at DH — Robinson Canó made 13 starts there, J.D. Davis 12 — he thrived, hitting .316/.377/.616 with 10 homers. His slugging percentage and 166 wRC+ both placed fourth in the league. Finally, he was living up to his billing. Read the rest of this entry »


Underachieving White Sox Drop Keuchel and Lose Anderson as Well

Dallas Keuchel
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The White Sox have spent the first two months of the season meandering around .500 due to injuries and underperformance. Over the long holiday weekend, they offered reminders of both issues, first designating struggling starter Dallas Keuchel for assignment and then losing Tim Anderson to a groin strain. With Lance Lynn likely to return from a knee injury within the next couple of weeks, the rotation should remain a source of strength for the defending AL Central winners, but Anderson’s absence looms large in a lineup that’s missing several other key players and struggling to score runs.

The 34-year-old Keuchel had pitched poorly this season, with a 7.88 ERA and 6.20 FIP. He’s averaged just four innings per start, walked hitters at the same rate as which he struck them out (12.2%), and served up a career-high 1.69 homers per nine despite being one of the game’s top groundballers. He appeared to be righting the ship with a pair of solid starts against Red Sox and Yankees earlier this month, allowing two runs in 11 innings against the pair on May 8 and May 14, respectively, but both teams pummeled him upon getting a second look, with damage totaling 12 runs in six innings on May 21 (Yankees) and May 26 (Red Sox).

The White Sox signed Keuchel to a three-year, $55.5 million deal in December 2019, and he pitched well enough the following season (1.99 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.8 WAR) to place fifth in the AL Cy Young voting. But last year, even while the team ran away in the division race, he was little more than an innings-eater, pitching to a 5.28 ERA and 5.23 FIP in 162 innings and being left off the Division Series roster. Last year’s Statcast expected numbers (xAVG, xSLG, xwOBA, xERA) were actually worse than this year’s numbers:

Dallas Keuchel by Statcast
Year BBE EV Barrel% Hard-Hit% xAVG xSLG wOBA xwOBA ERA FIP xERA
2018 661 87.3 4.1% 32.8% .246 .362 .305 .293 3.74 3.69 3.60
2019 348 88.8 5.5% 38.5% .261 .423 .327 .329 3.75 4.72 4.82
2020 198 86.8 4.0% 31.3% .278 .394 .249 .317 1.99 3.08 4.27
2021 558 88.3 8.9% 39.7% .302 .493 .356 .372 5.28 5.23 6.15
2022 124 88.3 8.9% 34.7% .280 .445 .411 .349 7.88 6.20 4.48
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Looking back, Keuchel’s 2020 expected numbers contained some warnings that his season wasn’t nearly as good as his ERA or even his FIP suggested. His results on his cutter, in particular, were way out of line with his expected results:

Dallas Keuchel’s Cutter
Year % AVG xBA SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA Whiff
2018 15.5% .231 .235 .398 .356 .289 .279 21.7%
2019 19.8% .290 .273 .565 .514 .387 .366 16.3%
2020 30.9% .203 .328 .246 .517 .241 .393 21.4%
2021 24.4% .329 .314 .518 .508 .381 .373 17.4%
2022 17.2% .419 .300 .935 .633 .589 .403 21.5%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Note that those odd 2020 expected results, which no doubt owe something to the small sample, bore much closer resemblance to his xBA and xSLG for the following year than to his actual AVG and SLG from ’20. Long story short, Keuchel came out smelling like roses when his overall wOBA allowed was 58 points below his xwOBA, but when his barrel rate more than doubled and his wOBA rose 62 points above his xwOBA in 2022, he was out of a job. Read the rest of this entry »


Brewers Suffer a Blow with Loss of Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers are atop the NL Central thanks in large part to a rotation that has ranked among the game’s best, but the team’s postseason hopes took a hit this week with the news that righty Freddy Peralta will miss “a significant amount of time” due to a posterior shoulder strain. Milwaukee, which is additionally dealing with multiple injuries in its lineup, believes that Peralta will avoid surgery and return this season, but his loss is a disappointment given the 25-year-old’s recent return to form.

Peralta left Sunday’s start against the Nationals after three-plus innings due to tightness in his left shoulder. He failed to retire any of the three batters he faced in the fourth inning, and all three came around to score, the last two on reliever Brent Suter’s watch along with three others. The five runs that Peralta was charged with were as many as he had allowed over his previous five starts.

Indeed, Peralta had been on a roll. After starting the season by allowing nine runs in seven innings in his first two turns, he went on the aforementioned five-start run. In 28.2 innings, he struck out 38 (a 34.2% rate) and walked six (5.4%) without allowing a single homer, a run capped by his seven-inning, two-hit, 10-strikeout game against the Braves on May 16. Granted, the competition he faced during that strech wasn’t fierce, as the Phillies, Pirates, Reds (twice), and Braves are all below .500, and only Philadelphia has a team wRC+ higher than 94, but such is the schedule of an NL Central contender.

Peralta underwent an MRI on Monday, which revealed the strain. The Brewers expect the injury will heal with rest, but it will take some time. “He will be back this season but it’s going to be a lengthy absence,” manager Craig Counsell told reporters on Monday. “We’re confident that there’s gonna be no aftereffects to this thing but it’s going to take a while to heal and then build it back up.”

Through the ups and downs of his season so far, Peralta’s ERA is a gaudy 4.42, but among the 66 NL pitchers with at least 30 innings through Monday (the cutoff point for all stats here unless otherwise noted), his 2.10 FIP was the league’s lowest, his 0.23 homers per nine ranked third (teammate Adrian Houser was first at 0.21), his 1.3 WAR and 30.3% strikeout rate were sixth, his 22.4% strikeout-walk differential was seventh, and his 2.88 xERA was 14th.

Those peripherals are in line with the All-Star campaign he put up last season. After three years of careful workload management — a span during which he struck out 258 in 192.2 innings but never threw over 85 innings in a season — Peralta broke out with career highs of 27 starts and 144.1 innings in 2021. Among NL pitchers with at least 140 innings, his 2.81 ERA placed sixth and his 3.12 FIP was seventh. His 33.6% strikeout rate was third behind only teammate Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer, and his 24.0% strikeout-walk differential was good for fourth behind that pair and Aaron Nola. Only a late-season bout of shoulder inflammation, for which Peralta spent 15 days on the injured list and had a few shortened starts on either side, put a damper on his strong campaign and prevented him from down-ballot consideration in the Cy Young voting. Read the rest of this entry »