Joey Gallo didn’t win in his long-anticipated Home Run Derby debut — he didn’t even make it out of the first round or hit a single 500-foot drive at Coors Field on Monday night — but he earned his trip to Denver’s All-Star festivities nonetheless. After an injury-marred 2019 and a dismal follow-up in the pandemic-shortened season, the 27-year-old slugger is putting together his best and most complete campaign.

Gallo’s second All-Star appearance was less eventful than his first. He replaced starter Aaron Judge in the bottom of the fifth inning of Tuesday night’s game, but didn’t get to bat until the eighth, when he drew a walk against Mark Melancon in his only plate appearance. In his All-Star debut two years ago, he had entered in the sixth inning, and swatted a solo homer off Will Smith in his lone plate appearance in the seventh. That run, which at the time extended the American League’s lead to 4-1, proved to be the difference-maker in the Junior Circuit’s 4-3 win.

In between those two appearances, Gallo’s had more downs than ups, but he’s worked hard to earn his way back. Having slugged 81 homers while batting a lopsided but respectable .208/.322/.516 (113 wRC+) in 2017-18, he was in the midst of a breakout campaign when the ’19 All-Star game rolled around, hitting an eye-opening .275/.417/.643 (162 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 61 first-half games. An oblique strain that sidelined him for over three weeks in June left him 19 plate appearances shy of qualifying for the batting title, but at that point, his slugging percentage and wRC+ trailed only Mike Trout (by three points and 20 points, respectively). Alas, Gallo played just 10 games in the second half before being diagnosed with a fractured hamate in his right hand. He underwent surgery, and while he expected to be out only about four weeks, continued pain while swinging prevented him from returning at all. Read the rest of this entry »

For all of the anticipation and hype that surrounded the long-awaited participation of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani as well as distance king Joey Gallo in their first Home Run Derbies — and at mile-high Coors Field, no less — it was easy to overlook the one contestant in the field who’d done this before. Because there was no Derby last year due to the coronavirus pandemic, 2019 winner Pete Alonso entered Monday night as the reigning champion, and he defended his title successfully and emphatically.

Indeed, the Mets’ 6-foot-3, 245-pound slugger seemed built for this competition, and he practically toyed with his opponents. After hitting a contest-high 35 homers in the quarterfinals, Alonso didn’t need his full allotment of time to win either of his final two rounds, capping his run by beating Trey Mancini in the finals, 23-22. In victory, he became the fourth player to win multiple Home Run Derbies, after Ken Griffey Jr. (1994, ’98-99), Prince Fielder (2009, ’12) and Yoenis Céspedes (2013-14). Mancini, who missed the 2020 season while undergoing chemotherapy for stage three colon cancer, put forth a valiant effort with a quick compact stroke that contrasted with Alonso’s long swing, but ultimately, he was outhit and outdistanced.

Alonso and Mancini were both part of the wave of upsets that characterized the night. In the quarterfinal round, all four lower seeds advanced, knocking out the Vegas-favored heavyweights, Ohtani and Gallo. While Ohtani’s loss to eighth-seeded Juan Soto rated as something of a disappointment given his headliner status, their battle was epic, requiring two rounds of tiebreakers. It’s worth noting that Coors Field favors right-handed hitters when it comes to homers, and three of the four lower seeds that advanced — the fifth-seeded Alonso, sixth-seeded Mancini, and seventh-seeded Trevor Story — swing righty. The seedings, by the way, were based upon the participants’ home run totals as of July 7; it wasn’t as though any Derby- or Statcast-related science went into the matchups. Read the rest of this entry »

Politics aside, the biggest upside to Major League Baseball’s decision to move this year’s All-Star Game from Atlanta to Denver is that for the first time in 23 years, the Home Run Derby will be held at Coors Field, where baseballs fly further than any other major league venue due to the mile-high altitude. If you have any sustained interest in the event, this is the bucket list location for a Derby, and if that’s not enough to juice this competition, MLB has made clear the balls themselves won’t be stored in the humidor prior to the festivities, theoretically resulting in drives of even greater distance. Short story longer: MORE DINGERS!

If there’s a downside to the pending fireworks show, it’s that the new baseball MLB introduced this year isn’t carrying quite as far as years past. The average distance of a hard-hit fly ball — that is, one hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater — is 366 feet, which is up five feet from the shortened 2020 season but down nine feet relative to ’19, the year those distances peaked.

That decreased distance is despite this year’s hard-hit fly balls having the highest average exit velocity of the Statcast era at 101.2 mph; they averaged 101 mph in 2019, the year that home runs peaked with an average of 1.39 per team per game. That was deemed Too Many Homers, and after dropping by 8% from 2019 to ’20, per-game home run rates have fallen another 7.85% this year, to 1.18 per team per game. The good news is that at Coors Field, that downturn won’t matter; via Statcast, this year’s hard-hit fly balls are averaging 393 feet — 7.3% further — and that’s with the humidor. Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago, on June 24 at Dodger Stadium, Zach Davies and three relievers combined to throw the 2021 season’s umpteenth no-hitter, even while walking the ballpark. The defeat of the Dodgers lifted the Cubs to 42–33 and kept them tied with the Brewers atop the NL Central. But for as pretty as Chicago appeared to be sitting at that moment, the team didn’t win again until Wednesday night, as an 11-game losing streak not only knocked it out of first but below .500 — a slide that probably marks the end of an era, as it changes the calculus for how the organization should view its current roster.

While five of their losses during the streak were by a single run — including three straight to the Reds in Cincinnati last weekend — the Cubs also surrendered 13 or more runs four times in that stretch, losing to the Brewers by the lopsided scores of 14–4 and 15–7 (blowing a 7–0 first-inning lead in that one, yeesh), and to the Phillies, 13–3 and 15–10, the latter on back-to-back nights. Compounding their misery is that they abetted Milwaukee’s 11-game winning streak and briefly dipped to fourth place.

Having lost again to the Phillies on Thursday, the Cubs enter Friday tied for third in the NL Central, 9 1/2 games behind Milwaukee, and eight games back in the Wild Card race. Their playoff odds, which were a modest 35.7% in the wake of the no-hitter, have dwindled to 4.7% — a fact of which club president Jed Hoyer is well aware. With a trio of pivotal players — Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo — all on expiring contracts, Hoyer effectively put up the “For Sale” sign while speaking to reporters on Thursday. Via The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney:

Cubs president Jed Hoyer: “Eleven days ago, we were fully on the buy side of (the trade deadline), everyone was calling about that. Obviously, people are now calling to see which players are available, so it’s a very different scenario than we expected. Life comes at you fast.”

— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) July 8, 2021

Jed Hoyer is open for business and taking phone calls ahead of trade deadline: “When your playoff odds get into single digits at this time of the year, you have to keep one eye on the future and what moves you can potentially make that can help build the next great Cubs team.”

— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) July 8, 2021

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2:01

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, sorry I’m late. I’ve somehow become entangled in Starlin Castro 3,000 Hit Twitter Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe Starlin Castro is the new Nick Markakis, with people coming out of the woodwork to ask what-if-he-reaches-3000-hits, which won’t happen given the erosion of his skills. รקเкє@WeOnFriar @matt29756930 @jay_jaffe @WalkingTaako ’20 season cost Castro 100+ hits. Dude doesn’t walk so he’s going to collect hits if in the lineup. Would need to somehow average 136 hits a year from ’21-’30 (Age 40 season). He’s at 83 already this year. Hope it happens. Will be fun to see what BBWAA does with it. 9 Jul 2021

2:02	Jay Jaffe: My piece on the Cubs’ losing streak and pending teardown just went up a short time ago https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-losing-streak-portends-furthe…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I wrote about the state of the Dodgers’ rotation in the wake of Clayton Kershaw’s trip to the IL and Trevor Bauer’s administrative leave https://t.co/VP7Ty2CtNH

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Anyway, the queue is filling so let’s get to it. Before I do so, let me caution you that I have absolutely no opinions or knowledge pertaining to the draft. You’re barking up the wrong tree here.

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Maybe a little — i’d have guessed one or two guys a week would get nabbed, as a warning to the rest, but so far it’s just Hector Santiago, and he’s appealing the suspension.

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At the outset of the season, the Dodgers were forecast for a major league-high 100 wins thanks to their incredible depth, which included eight plausible candidates for their starting rotation. Thanks to a recent surge, 100 wins remains a realistic target — their .609 winning percentage puts them on pace for 99, and our updated projections forecast them for 98 — but that herd of starters has dwindled due to injuries and other matters. On Wednesday, that herd got even smaller, as the team placed Clayton Kershaw on the 10-day injured list due to a bout of inflammation in his left forearm.

According to manager Dave Roberts, Kershaw “felt something in the elbow” while playing catch earlier this week, but beyond that, there’s no indication as to the severity of his injury, or his prognosis. He’ll undergo an MRI and other tests after the team returns to Los Angeles for its weekend series with the Diamondbacks. With less than a week until the All-Star break, the timing of the move is such that he might only miss one start and would be eligible to return to action on Saturday, July 17.

That said, while this is the sixth season in a row that the three-time Cy Young winner has landed on the injured list, it’s the first time he’s been sidelined for an injury involving his forearm or elbow, and if he’s suffered a strain or a sprain — gulp — he could miss substantial time. Only last season, when he was scratched on Opening Day for a bout of lower back stiffness, has Kershaw returned from the IL as soon as he was eligible:

The 33-year-old Kershaw has pitched well this season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 106.1 innings and lasting at least six innings in 14 of his 18 starts. His FIP, 30.1% strikeout rate, and 25.6% strikeout-walk differential are all his best marks since 2016, respectively ranking sixth, ninth, and third in the NL; he’s also third in walk rate (4.5%). Even so, he was bypassed for a spot on the NL All-Star team, along with every other Dodgers pitcher, despite the team’s NL-low 3.21 ERA and its third-ranked 3.63 FIP. That could change as replacements are announced; Jacob deGrom, for example, has said he will decline his invitation in favor of resting his body and spending time with his family.

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The White Sox have spent the past two months atop the American League Central despite a lineup that’s been nothing close to whole. On a more or less monthly basis, the team has lost a key member of its starting lineup to the Injured List, beginning with left fielder Eloy Jiménez, who ruptured his left pectoral tendon just before Opening Day, and followed by center fielder Luis Robert, who strained his right hip flexor in early May, and then second baseman Nick Madrigal, who tore a pair of hamstring tendons in early June. Now they’ll be without Yasmani Grandal for at least the next four to six weeks, as the switch-hitting catcher tore a tendon in his left knee.

Grandal was already banged up, having departed last Friday’s game in the middle of the fifth inning due to tightness in his left calf. He didn’t play again until Monday. While batting in the sixth inning against the Twins’ Caleb Thielbar, his left knee buckled as he checked his swing on a high 0-2 fastball. He hobbled out of the batter’s box and was soon rolling on the grass in apparent agony, pounding his fists on the ground before being tended to by the White Sox’s head athletic trainer, James Kruk. Initial hopes that he had merely suffered a cramp were doused by manager Tony LaRussa, who in his postgame comments said that Grandal was on crutches in the clubhouse.

The White Sox called the injury a calf strain at the time, but on Tuesday, Grandal was diagnosed with a torn tendon. “I just think it was the twist he made as he made his swing,” La Russa told reporters. “Something got caught. It didn’t free up. You make a turn on it and it got caught and something popped.” The manager said that Grandal would return to Chicago to get a more complete diagnosis. [Update: Shortly after this was published, the White Sox announced that Grandal underwent surgery to repair the torn tendon, and that they will provide an updated timeline, though doctors “continue to expect Grandal to return during the 2021 regular season.”] Read the rest of this entry »

Aroldis Chapman set off some fireworks at Yankee Stadium on July 4, though Mets fans almost certainly enjoyed them more than Yankees fans. For the seventh time in his last 14 outings, Chapman was scored upon, and for the second outing in a row, he served up a game-tying home run that led to a crushing defeat. The 33-year-old fireballer is in the midst of an ill-timed career-worst stretch, one that has dealt the Yankees’ playoff hopes a significant blow.

In the opener of a Subway Series doubleheader necessitated by Friday night’s rainout, Chapman entered in the seventh inning to protect a 5-4 lead. Under normal circumstances, that would have been a no-brainer move, but the decision raised some eyebrows not only given the closer’s recent struggles but the fact that setup man Chad Green had thrown just two pitches to retire Dominic Smith, the only batter he faced, to end the sixth.

Chapman got ahead of Alonso 1-2 via a three-fastball sequence: a 96.7 mph called strike on the outside edge of the plate, a 98.4 mph ball even further outside, and then a 96.9 mph swinging strike above the zone. When he switched to a slider (a pitch that Alonso has feasted upon this year, slugging .681 when he connects) and hung it in the lower middle of the zone (where Alonso has a .796 xSLG), the slugger crushed it, launching it 406 feet into the visitors’ bullpen:

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NEW YORK — After living up to the hype and the history for the better part of the season’s first three months — capped by an extension of his recent home run spree with three in his first two games in the Bronx — Shohei Ohtani made a rare misstep on Wednesday. On a night where he doubled as both the Angels’ leadoff hitter and their starting pitcher, Ohtani allowed the first five Yankees he faced to reach base, failed to escape the first inning, and was charged with a career-high seven runs. Rather than send him out to right field after his start as planned, manager Joe Maddon had little choice but to pull his two-way superstar from the game entirely.

Not that many in the Yankee Stadium crowd of 30,714 complained. Quite the contrary. For as happy as they might have been to get a glimpse of the eighth wonder of the world, the sight of the Yankees’ recently-dormant offense continuing the previous night’s 11-run onslaught — one more run than they’d scored during their four-game losing streak — was even more welcome… at least until the plot twisted.

“Frustrating. Disappointing. Terrible,” said Yankees manager Aaron Boone afterwards. Boone wasn’t referring to Ohtani’s outing, but rather the similar lapse of control from closer Aroldis Chapman. On a sweltering night that saw a temperature of 92 degrees at first pitch before a pair of rain delays cooled things off while adding a couple of extra hours at the ballpark, the Yankees frittered away their 7-2 first-inning lead, with Chapman ultimately walking the bases loaded in the ninth inning and serving up a game-tying grand slam to Jared Walsh. The Angels added three more runs against Lucas Luetge and escaped with a surreal 11-8 victory that Maddon called, “probably the craziest, best result we’ve had” during his two-season tenure. Read the rest of this entry »

Tony Kemp did not make the cut when the All-Star Game finalists were announced on Sunday; the American League second basemen will be represented by the trio of Marcus Semien, Jose Altuve, and DJ LeMahieu. Semien and Altuve are both having fine seasons, and not for the first time, and while LeMahieu has been comparatively subpar thus far this year, he was one of the AL’s top hitters in 2019 and ’20. Kemp does not have that kind of track record, and isn’t even a full-time player or a single-position one, but he’s nonetheless in the midst of a career year that deserves a closer look.

Through Monday (the cutoff for all the stats herein), the 29-year-old Kemp was hitting .274/.401/.438 in 186 PA, splitting his time between second base (40 games, 24 starts) and left field (24 games, 19 starts). After starting just six of Oakland’s first 22 games, he’s started 37 of the past 54 and 25 of the past 33, earning an increasingly larger share of the playing time thanks to his improved hitting. After slashing just .200/.385/.233 (98 wRC+) in 40 PA in April, he improved to .292/.368/.438 (125 wRC+) in 59 PA in May, and .294/.430/.529 (169 wRC+) in 87 PA in June.

Kemp’s overall slash stats and wRC+ all represent career highs and are well beyond the .235/.320/.359 (89 wRC+) he hit for the Astros, Cubs, and A’s in 863 PA from 2016 to ’20. He doesn’t have enough playing time to qualify for the batting title, but through Monday, his .401 on-base percentage ranked third among AL hitters with at least 150 PA, behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.443) and Yoán Moncada (.403), and his 140 wRC+ ranks 15th, two points behind Altuve, six points ahead of Semien, and 37 points ahead of LeMahieu.

Again, I’m not suggesting that Kemp deserved All-Star consideration for what amounts to his first season with at least 1.0 WAR (he’s at 1.4), but it’s an impressive performance nonetheless, one that has helped the A’s to the AL’s fifth-best record at 47–34. I’ll admit that he hadn’t caught my eye to any great degree until a reader (presumably not Tony Kemp, despite the screen name) called attention to him in last week’s chat, but after 30 seconds of peering at his stats page, I resolved to investigate more closely.

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