In a pair of low-cost moves, the Brewers brought back two players who helped them to playoff berths in recent years. Sinkerballing southpaw Brett Anderson, who spent most of last season as a member of Milwaukee’s rotation, agreed to a one-year deal, while infielder Travis Shaw, who spent last season with the Blue Jays after three years in Wisconsin, agreed to a minor league contract.

The 33-year-old Anderson, who has been beset by injuries for much of his 12-year major league career, made 10 starts with the Brewers in a season bookended by recurrent blisters on his left index finger. Placed on the injured list on July 20, he had to wait out a few days of COVID-19-related postponements before debuting on August 3. The blister problem reared its head again in his final start on September 27 and kept him off the team’s postseason roster, though the Brewers were swept in the Wild Card Series by the Dodgers. Still, it marked the second season in a row that Anderson was mostly available, which given his litany of injuries both freakish (a stress fracture in his foot, a hit-by-pitch–induced fracture in his left hand) and chronic (elbow woes culminating in 2011 Tommy John surgery, a bulging disc that required surgeries in ’14 and ’16) counts as a victory.

In between his two bouts of blisters, Anderson pitched to a 4.21 ERA (94 ERA-) and 4.38 FIP (99 FIP-) in 47 innings. As he had to build up his pitch count, it took him until his fourth turn to go longer than five innings, but once he reached that plateau, he made six straight starts of five or six innings. As usual, he generated a ton of groundballs, with a 57.7% rate that ranked third among NL pitchers with at least 40 innings (teammate Adrian Houser was first at 58.5%). His 15.8% strikeout rate wasn’t much to write home about, but it was his highest mark since 2014 and well above his 12.1% in ’19 with the A’s. Likewise, his 10.9% strikeout-to-walk differential was his best mark since 2013 in Oakland.

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In their latest move to revamp a bullpen that was atypically subpar in 2020, the Yankees have signed free agent Justin Wilson to a one-year contract that’s reportedly worth around $4 million — one that apparently has player and club options to lower its average annual value for Competitive Balance Tax purposes. Regardless of the deal’s complexity, this will be the 33-year-old lefty’s second go-round with the Yankees, for whom he pitched in 2015; he spent the past two seasons with the Mets.

Wilson’s final 2020 numbers with the other New York team (3.66 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 0.5 WAR in 19.2 innings) were solid but unremarkable. Of the 10 runs he allowed, six were clustered into two outings of three runs apiece: a loss against the Red Sox on July 29, and a hold against the Marlins on August 26. Beyond those two clunkers, he allowed runs in only three of his other 21 outings. For the fourth straight season, he walked more than 10% of batters he faced, though his 10.5% rate was still his lowest since 2016.

Below the surface, Wilson’s performance was more interesting. Relying primarily upon a four-seam fastball that averaged 94.9 mph and a cutter that averaged 90.8 mph, he did an excellent job of limiting hard contact in 2020. Via Statcast, his 84.5 mph average exit velocity placed in the 96th percentile, his 28.3% hard-hit rate was in the 92nd percentile, and his .274 xwOBA in the 75th percentile. Those numbers are based on a small sample of just 53 batted ball events, but they’re only a bit better than what he did in a 2019 sample of 101 batted ball events: 85.3 mph exit velo, 27.7% hard-hit rate, .285 xwOBA. In fact, over the past two seasons, Wilson’s four-seamer — which at 2,280 rpm hardly has a noteworthy spin rate — has generated the lowest exit velocity of any four-seamer in the majors:

Likewise, Wilson’s overall 85.0 mph average exit velocity over the past two seasons was the majors’ fifth-lowest at a 50-inning cutoff. The innings total is low because he missed over seven weeks due to left elbow soreness, but even with that absence, he ranks second in the majors in appearances (472) and innings (424.2) by left-handed relievers since the start of the 2013 season, trailing only Tony Watson — who just agreed to a minor league deal with the Phillies — in both categories. From 2013 to ’18, Wilson averaged 67 appearances and 61 innings per year, accompanied by a 3.34 ERA and 3.32 FIP.

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For the second time in his career, Jake Arrieta will join a rebuilding Cubs team. The soon-to-be 35-year-old righty spent four seasons and change with the Cubs from mid-2013 to ’17, joining a team en route to 96 losses and helping Chicago to four straight playoff berths, including a long-awaited championship in 2016. During that stretch he emerged as an ace, throwing a pair of no-hitters and winning a Cy Young. This time around, he’s trying to re-establish himself as a reliable starter via a one-year, $6 million deal, that for a team that’s in the process of blowing up the roster that won the NL Central in the abbreviated 2020 season.

The contract is a big step down from the complex three-year, $75 million deal Arrieta just completed with the Phillies, but then he struggled mightily while trying to live up to that contract. Over the course of those three seasons, he delivered a 4.36 ERA, 4.55 FIP and 3.7 WAR in 352.2 innings, making a full complement of starts only in 2018. The recurrence of a bone spur in his right elbow, which had bothered him the previous year as well, limited him to 24 starts in 2019 before he underwent season-ending surgery in mid-August. While Arrieta could have opted out and sought a larger payday at that juncture, it clearly wasn’t in the cards for him amid the diminishing returns.

Those returns continued to diminish in 2020, as Arrieta made just nine starts before being shut down in mid-September due to a right hamstring strain. His 5.08 ERA was his highest mark since 2012, when he was still trying to find himself with the Orioles; the season was his fifth straight with an ERA that increased from the previous year. He broke a similar streak in the FIP department with a 4.66 mark, down from 4.89 in 2019 and in the vicinity of league average (101 FIP-). Read the rest of this entry »

The good news is that the Hall of Fame will host an induction ceremony in 2021. The bad news is that it won’t be open to the public, and that just about everything else in connection with the Hall’s annual festivities has been canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic for the second year in a row. The institution announced as much in a press release on Friday:

“Though we are having to cancel our 2021 Hall of Fame Classic Weekend, the Hall of Fame is maintaining its commitment to hold an Induction Ceremony on July 25,” said Jane Forbes Clark, Chairman of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. “We had hoped to be in a position to welcome loyal baseball fans back to Cooperstown for Induction Weekend, but with the continuing uncertainties created by COVID-19, the Board of Directors has decided not to hold Induction Weekend ceremonies at the traditional Clark Sports Center location. We have prepared alternative plans to conduct our annual Awards Presentation and Induction Ceremony as television events taking place indoors and adhering to all of the required New York State guidelines.”

Induction Weekend was scheduled to take place July 23–26, with the big ceremony at the Clark Sports Center on Sunday, the 25th. Instead, it will be broadcast live on MLB Network that day beginning at 1:30 pm ET.

Though nobody was elected from the 2021 cycle — the BBWAA voters pitched their first shutout since 2013, while the Early Baseball and Golden Days Era Committees had their meetings postponed — last year’s honorees did not get their moment in the Cooperstown sun. Thus, the Hall is making arrangements for Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, and whoever will represent the late Marvin Miller (it’s complicated) to receive their plaques and give their speeches via an indoor event that will adhere to all of the required New York State COVID-19 guidelines. Jeter and Walker were elected via the 2020 BBWAA ballot; Simmons and Miller were chosen via the Modern Baseball Era Committee.

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2:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat — this is the third week in a row I’ve been able to do this, my longest streak since August. So there’s that. Housekeeping-wise, today I have a piece dreaming on Greg Bird’s minor league deal with the Rockies, who couldn’t possibly have done worse at finding first basemen over the past half-decade.  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/greg-bird-takes-flight-to-colorado/

2:03	Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a look at Yadier Molina’s new one-year deal as well as his Hall of Fame case https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youll-never-guess-where-yadier-molina-sign…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: And on Tuesday I took a deep dive into the health and safety protocols in the 2021 MLB Operations Manual https://blogs.fangraphs.com/high-tech-contact-tracing-vaccines-and-run…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Meanwhile, in What Is Jay Irate About Today? Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe they’ve done away with historic league names as well in favor of this generic bullshit? C. Trent Rosecrans@ctrent MLB announces new minor league structure 12 Feb 2021

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Ok, on with the show

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Greg Bird hasn’t been right since 2015. The Rockies haven’t gotten acceptable production from their first basemen since 2014. This could be the start of a beautiful relationship — or it could amount to nothing, as most minor league deals do. We’re about to find out, as the Rockies announced on Thursday that they’ve signed Bird to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

Bird, who’s still just 28 years old, is coming off a more miserable 2020 than most of us. Bad luck in the injury department, a constant throughout his major league career, continued to dog him to the point that he didn’t take a single competitive plate appearance for either of the two organizations with whom he signed minor league deals. Cast adrift by the Yankees in November 2019 — we’ll get to the saga that led there — he initially signed with the Rangers last February, and after getting called up from the alternate training site in late July, before he could play a single game, he strained his right calf. After a 10-day stint on the Injured List, he was designated for assignment and elected free agency. Upon signing with the Phillies in mid-September, he came up positive for COVID-19 during his intake testing, and never even made it to the alternate site.

That Bird has landed with the Rockies makes sense given his area ties. He’s a graduate of Grandview High School in Aurora, Colorado, where he caught Kevin Gausman, who was a year ahead of him. Shortly after earning the Gatorade Player of the Year award for Colorado in 2011, Bird was drafted by the Yankees in the fifth round, and soon moved to first base. His major league career, which began on August 13, 2015, started with great promise, for soon after arriving, he became a lineup regular once Mark Teixeira suffered a season-ending fracture after fouling a ball off his right leg. Bird, 22 at the time, proceeded to launch a flurry of home runs — 11 in 178 plate appearances while batting .261/.343/.529 (137 wRC+), making him the clear heir apparent as the 36-year-old Teixeira limped into the final season of his eight-year contract.

Unfortunately, the story unravels from there. Bird missed all of 2016 after undergoing surgery on his right (throwing) shoulder to repair a torn labrum, the recurrence of an injury he’d suffered the previous May. Towards the end of a promising spring in 2017, he fouled a ball off his right ankle and played through it, going on the DL on May 2 after starting the season in a 6-for-60 skid, then undergoing surgery to remove the os trigonum bone in his ankle, which sidelined him until late August. Though his final numbers were dreadful (.190/.288/.422, 87 wRC+), he hit a respectable .253/.316/.575 with eight homers in 98 PA upon returning, and then .244/.426/.512 with three homers in 54 PA during the postseason, highlighted by an upper-deck solo homer off Andrew Miller that provided the only run in Game 3 of the Division Series. Greg Bird was back, baby! Read the rest of this entry »

In a move that had become a foregone conclusion, on Monday Yadier Molina and the Cardinals finalized a one-year deal that returns the iconic catcher to the only team he’s ever known. The agreement caps an eventful 11-day stretch that included the return of longtime Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright, who was also a free agent, as well as the blockbuster trade that landed Nolan Arenado. While Molina’s new deal doesn’t ensure that he’ll end his career in St. Louis, it’s clear that the 38-year-old backstop is eying the finish line.

Drafted out of a Puerto Rico high school by the Cardinals in the fourth round in 2000, Molina had never tested free agency before thanks to a trio of multiyear extensions, the latest of which was a three-year, $60 million deal signed in April 2017. His new contract thus represents a significant pay cut, as he’ll get $9 million for the 2021 season, with no additional incentives or options. Then again, with 1,989 games caught so far — a total that’s sixth on the all-time list — he’s not the player he once was.

Molina hit a thin .262/.303/.359 with four homers in 156 PA in 2020, and walked a career low 3.8% of the time. His on-base percentage was his lowest mark since 2006, and both his slugging percentage and his 82 wRC+ were his lowest since 2015. His 84.7 mph average exit velocity was his lowest of the Statcast era; that figure placed him the fourth percentile overall, as did his 25.4% hard-hit rate. You’ll be shocked to learn — unless you’ve been following more than a decade’s worth of jokes on my Twitter account about the glacial movement of Molina and his older brothers José and Bengie — that his sprint speed finally reached the first percentile after years of… slow decline. Read the rest of this entry »

They’re baaaack. If you didn’t get enough of the runner-on-second in extra innings rule or the seven-inning doubleheader games that were introduced at the major league level in 2020, fear not, because they’re part of the package of health and safety protocols agreed to between Major League Baseball and the Players Association for this coming season. Those two breaks with tradition, which received mixed reviews from fans but surprisingly favorable ones in other quarters, were adopted in an effort to reduce the amount of time players and other personnel spend at the ballpark and thus lower their risk of exposure to COVID-19. Their continuation is the most noticeable from among a comprehensive set of practices designed to build upon what the league and players learned in completing the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, both from their own experience and in watching how other leagues completed their seasons.

Developed as a collaboration between the league and the union, and in consultation with medical experts, infectious disease specialists, and experts from other leagues, the agreement keeps major league baseball on track to open spring training on February 17 and the regular season on April 1. It was finalized on Monday night, though it’s subject to adjustment depending upon the circumstances related to the pandemic — including, hopefully, the relaxation of some practices as conditions improve due to mass vaccinations. Most notable among the new rules are wearable technology for the purposes of contact tracing as well as potential fines and even suspension for players who violate protocols, and limited access to in-game video. Left out is the fate of the universal designated hitter, which last year was included within the health and safety protocols but which MLB is intent on reclassifying as an economic matter. Both that and an expanded playoff structure, two issues the league attempted to tie together in previous negotiations, could still be revisited before the start of the season.

Prior to 2020, the extra-innings rule and seven-inning doubleheader games had both been used in the minor leagues to varying degrees. Their adoption not only was intended to reduce potential exposure to the coronavirus but to preventing pitching staffs from being overtaxed, particularly within the context of making up games postponed due to weather or health and safety matters.

The extra-innings rule calls for each half-inning after the ninth to begin with a runner on second base, creating an immediate level of urgency and increasing the chances that extra-innings games end more quickly. In that regard, the rule did what it was supposed to do. As I noted in November while polling FanGraphs readers on their reception of last year’s rules changes, extra-inning games averaged 10.29 innings in 2020, down from 11.14 in ’19 and 11.04 in ’18. The percentage of games going past 11 innings dipped to 0.7%, down from 2.3% in 2019 and 2.8% in ’18. More than three-quarters of our readers who participated in the poll (the full results of which are here) did not want to see the rule retained. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mets missed out on signing Trevor Bauer, and they didn’t sign J.T. Realmuto or George Springer, either. That’s not to say they’ve had an unsuccessful winter — their blockbuster deal for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco significantly upgraded the team, and they’ve made other solid moves as well, but center field remains an area of need. Jackie Bradley Jr. is clearly still the top center fielder available, and would make for a sensible fit, but the Mets aren’t the only team pursuing him. Over the weekend, they made a smaller-scale addition signing center fielder Albert Almora Jr. to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million plus incentives. The question is whether that constitutes an insurance policy or an all-too-familiar half-measure.

Almora is best remembered as the player who scored the go-ahead run for the Cubs in the 10th inning of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. Pinch-running for Kyle Schwarber after a leadoff single, he alertly tagged up and took second base on a Kris Bryant fly ball to deep center field, and came home on Ben Zobrist’s double. He was a 22-year-old rookie at that point, a 2012 first-round pick who had arrived in midsummer and made a solid showing as a bench player. After the Cubs won the World Series, they let Dexter Fowler depart as a free agent and handed the keys to center field to Almora.

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Just as the baseball industry was catching its breath following the news of Trevor Bauer signing with the Dodgers, the free agent market’s top hitter, Marcell Ozuna, agreed to a deal as well. After a monster season in which he helped the Braves come within one win of their first trip to the World Series this millennium, he’ll stay in Atlanta on a four-year, $65 million deal. If that contract — which includes a club option for 2025 that can take the total package to $80 million — seems light compared to what the free market’s other top players have received, your eyes aren’t deceiving you.

Consider for a moment that Bauer, a 30-year-old righty who won the NL Cy Young award during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, has yet to put together a 30-start season with an ERA or FIP below 4.00 in parts of nine major league seasons, during which he’s been about nine or 10 percent better than average according to FIP- and ERA-. Via the structure of his three-year, $102 million deal with the Dodgers, he’ll set single-season records for salary in the first two years ($40 million and $45 million), with an average annual value of $34 million if he doesn’t opt out after years one or two.

The 30-year-old Ozuna is coming off the best season of an eight-year major league career during which he’s been 17 percent better than average according to wRC+. In 2020, he set across-the-board career highs in his slash stats, hitting .338/.431/.636, all of which ranked third in the NL, as did his 179 wRC+. Additionally, his 18 homers, 56 RBI, 145 total bases and 267 plate appearances all led the league, while his 2.5 WAR — which matched that of Bauer, interestingly enough — ranked seventh. Yet the $16.25 million AAV of his contract isn’t half that of Bauer, and it’s well below those of two of the four other position player free agents who have landed deals of at least four years:

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