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Blue Jays Commit to Playoff Race, Sign Russell Martin

This past year, as a regular for the Pirates, Russell Martin was worth 5.3 WAR, according to our data. Here’s the list of Blue Jays catchers who’ve had five-win seasons:

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The year before, also with the Pirates, Martin was worth 4.1 WAR. Here’s the list of Blue Jays catchers who’ve had four-win seasons:

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Looking ahead, over almost 500 trips to the plate, Steamer projects Martin to be worth 3.8 WAR. Here’s the list of Blue Jays catchers who’ve had 3.8-win seasons:

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It’s a bit of a dreary history. Ernie Whitt was worth 3.6 wins in 1983. Pat Borders was worth 3.5 in 1990. Whitt was worth 3.4 in 1987. And then that’s it for even three-win seasons. The Blue Jays have never employed a star-level catcher. Now they have one in Russell Martin, who they plucked away from the National League for $82 million over five years. It’s not a sure-fire bargain — no long-term contract to an aging catcher can ever look like a bargain — but with the splash, the Blue Jays have moved up in the AL East, committing to a run toward a tournament the franchise hasn’t seen since 1993.

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The Tigers of the Future Aren’t Totally Screwed

The Detroit Tigers are in an unusual position. There’s nothing unusual about a team trying to win now, but there’s something unusual about the Tigers’ particular sense of urgency. We can acknowledge it has something to do with Mike Ilitch, and his age, and that’s a little weird to talk about, but it’s out there. Ilitch wants to see a winner and people don’t live forever, so this is the current line of thinking: the Tigers will do anything to try to win right away, no matter what it means for the future, because what if there isn’t a tomorrow?

It’s pretty obvious where the Tigers’ priorities are. They just gave four more expensive years to a soon-to-be 36-year-old Victor Martinez, and that contract’s been identified as one that’ll look mighty bad pretty soon. But I think people might’ve gotten too far ahead of themselves in declaring that the future will be a mess, myself included. It’s easy to observe some of the parallels between the Tigers and the Phillies, but the future Tigers aren’t sure to be screwed. There’s a way to survive, such that the window doesn’t have to slam shut.

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FG on Fox: Why $300 Million for Giancarlo Stanton Makes Sense

It was an astonishing figure that Ken Rosenthal reported. On some level the figures are always astonishing, but this one was especially so. Allow me to jog your memory:

Would Giancarlo Stanton turn down the biggest contract in professional sports history?

The Miami Marlins apparently intend to find out.

The two sides are discussing a deal that would be for at least 10 years and at least $300 million, according to major-league sources.

There used to be some talk that Clayton Kershaw would become the first $300-million man, and then he signed for about seven-tenths of that. Miguel Cabrera came close, but now it’s Stanton who’s threatening to break through the barrier. It’s astonishing, really, for multiple reasons. There’s the raw amount of money. There’s the team said to be considering the raw amount of money. There’s the player said to be considering the raw amount of money, what with Stanton’s reaction a few years back to the Marlins’ most recent fire sale. The snarky way to explain this is that it would take $300 million for the Marlins to convince anyone to trust them. Why sign with that team if you don’t have to?

But the Marlins have insisted for a long time that they’re committed to keeping Stanton around. Maybe, finally, they’re going to turn over a new leaf. We can’t predict where the Marlins are going to go. We know only that they have some talent now, and that they might soon sign their brightest star to a contract worth almost a third of a billion dollars. That seems like a lot. But, is it crazy, or is it entirely reasonable?

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Pirates Go to the Pitch-Framing Well, Add Francisco Cervelli

Did you read the article from a week ago about the Astros trading for Hank Conger? Great, then you’ve already read this article, too. The Pirates just followed a similar path, sending Justin Wilson to the Yankees in exchange for backstop Francisco Cervelli. Wilson’s left-handed and cost-controlled, and he throws hard, so the Yankees see him as a valuable part of the bullpen right away. But it’s Cervelli who’s the more interesting piece, here. He’s the more interesting piece for reasons you might be tired of reading about.

The Pirates, as you know, are probably going to lose Russell Martin to a team with a higher payroll. Listen to them tell it, and getting Cervelli doesn’t close the door on a Martin return; the front office is still hopeful. But the team sounds prepared to give Cervelli the bulk of the playing time, if necessary, just as the Yankees were in 2013. Cervelli is unproven as a regular, but he’s fairly proven as a framer, which is a skill the Pirates appear to value.

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Short-Term Tigers Re-Sign Victor Martinez

Every organization wants to be perceived as honest, but not each one can be taken at its word. It was refreshing to hear the Phillies acknowledge not too long ago that they won’t be contending over the next few years. As obvious a point as it was to make, it was important to hear the Phillies be truthful about their situation. As for the Tigers, it’s no secret what they’ve been doing. They’ll come right out and say it: they’ve been trying to win right away, in large part for the sake of Mike Ilitch. The Tigers haven’t acted like they’ve had the luxury of time, and Wednesday they made another big win-now move, keeping Victor Martinez at a four-year guarantee worth $68 million. Per usual, there are questions about the back. Per usual, that’s not the priority.

It’s a fairly simple move to explain, if you buy into the greater organizational pattern. The Tigers are set up to be competitive, and they could’ve used a bat, so they kept one of their best, at a substantial price. One of the things that was so perplexing about the Doug Fister trade was that it made the Tigers immediately worse. That broke from the trend, and caused some to wonder if the team might be slowly trying to plan more for the future. Martinez is about 2015. Martinez is about winning before the future even has a chance to happen. What does Mike Ilitch care about the years down the road?

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Clayton Kershaw and the Others

I understand why the BBWAA announces finalists for awards before it announces the winners — they’re trying to build some suspense, some anticipation, and, okay, that’s fine, even if the finalists don’t tell us much we couldn’t predict. For example, we’ve long known the AL Cy Young was going to come down to Felix Hernandez vs. Corey Kluber. All the non-contenders have been officially eliminated, which does nothing. It’s even funnier when you get a race that isn’t a race at all, like Jose Abreu and the AL Rookie of the Year. Or, say, Clayton Kershaw and the NL Cy Young. According to the BBWAA, Kershaw is a finalist, along with Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright. The ESPN forecast is somewhat torn between Felix and Kluber, in one league. In the other league, it’s less torn:

kershawespnUnanimous, in other words. And this is the way things are likely to play out. Clayton Kershaw ought to get every single first-place vote, because of the gap between himself and the others. You can eyeball the gap if you want, but we can also put some numbers to the idea. What would it have taken for Kershaw to come away resembling Cueto or Wainwright?

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The AL Cy Young Can’t Go Wrong, or Right

Though we won’t know the winner of the 2014 American League Cy Young Award until later Wednesday, we’ve already been given some clues. The BBWAA has told us the three finalists are Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale. Based on the association’s own precedent, Sale isn’t going to win because he didn’t throw enough innings, so this is coming down to Felix vs. Kluber, as we’ve been assuming for months. The feeling is that Felix is going to win, and ESPN agrees with that pretty strongly, but Kluber’s case only got stronger as the season wore on, so it’s hard to imagine a bad choice. Which, from another perspective, means it’s hard to imagine a good choice.

There were two Cy Young winners in 2013. There were two Cy Young winners in 2012! There were two Cy Young winners in 2011, and in 2010, and in 2009, and in 2008, and in…you get it. There have been two Cy Young winners every year since 1970. In 1969, there were three, as AL voting was split between Mike Cuellar and Denny McLain. That’s our one existing case of there being co-Cy Youngs, meaning I think it’s safe to presume Wednesday will reveal a single winner. That’s too bad when you’ve got a pair of guys who are equally worthy.

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Why Wasn’t Billy Hamilton a Base-Stealing Dynamo?

Shortly before people were making too much of the Mets signing Michael Cuddyer, people were making just enough of the Royals very nearly winning the actual World Series. It was an enjoyable race for a championship, and a part of the Royals’ game that got an incredible amount of attention was their habit of stealing bases. Against the A’s in the wild-card playoff, the Royals stole seven bags. Against the Angels in the ALDS, they stole another five. Then, against the Orioles, they stole just one. And against the Giants, they stole just one. The Royals’ base-stealing game was more or less shut down. In large part, presumably, because the opponents became prepared.

Along those lines, Billy Hamilton. Hamilton was supposed to be something different, something unique. Hamilton was going to make it with his legs, and Hamilton was going to challenge long-held records. It was a significant news item when Hamilton stole his first big-league bag. It was a significant news item when Hamilton was first thrown out. Coming into 2014, people wondered how extreme Hamilton would be. In the end, he stole a lot of bags. But he was also caught a lot of times, and he has a line like any other speedy slap hitter. Hamilton finished 25th in base-stealing runs — at +2.0 — behind guys like Danny Santana, Sam Fuld, and Kolten Wong. Why was Billy Hamilton not able to run like crazy?

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/11/14

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: You have questions about baseball

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I have a responsibility to answer some of them

9:06
Comment From stuart scott
BOOYAH

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hey Stuart

9:06
Comment From Xolo
What do you know about Kwang Hyun Kim? For $2M, doesn’t sound like the Padres are expecting much from him.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s what I’d say: teams are more excited about international players than ever, given their overall success, so for a top bid to come in at $2 million, that tells you not a lot of teams believe in the player being worth much of anything

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Michael Cuddyer, Already a Met

Michael Cuddyer wasn’t expected to receive a qualifying offer from the Rockies, so, he received a qualifying offer from the Rockies. Michael Cuddyer was expected to accept the qualifying offer, so, he didn’t accept the qualifying offer. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t expected to forgo the qualifying offer because of just a few extra million dollars, so, he forwent the qualifying offer because of just a few extra million dollars. And the Mets weren’t expected to pursue Michael Cuddyer after the compensation was attached, so, the Mets pursued him after the compensation was attached. The Mets pursued him, and they got him: Michael Cuddyer’s off to New York, for two years and $21 million.

The Mets, then, are out the 15th pick of next summer’s draft. The Rockies, then, are up one compensation pick in next summer’s draft. Cuddyer’s got himself a multi-year guarantee, and he’ll pull $8.5 million in this coming season, and $12.5 million in the next. The initial response, as is common, is that the Mets did something silly. Given a little more thought, it settles to merely questionable. Of greatest interest is what the Mets seem to be signaling.

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